新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

全球农产品贸易网络演化与中国对策

目的 面对日益严峻复杂的国际经济政治环境,理清全球农产品贸易格局演变的特征及趋势,对于及时应对国际农产品市场风险、提高国际循环利用能力具有重要意义。方法 基于社会网络分析法,利用1996—2021年世界农产品贸易数据,文章从总体—行业—加工程度3个维度分别构建了全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了全球农产品贸易网络的格局演化及重要节点特征。结果 （1）各国间农产品贸易关联日益加深,处于核心地位的国家数量显著增加,以美国为代表的单中心主导地位被削弱,但由少数国家主导全球农产品贸易的情形并未改变。（2）中国在全球农产品贸易网络中地位显著提升,点度中心度和接近中心度均位于前列,但中介中心度处于较低水平,说明中国对全球农业资源和市场的掌控能力依然不足。（3）各国在不同细分行业中的地位呈现明显的异质性,大多数国家的进口集中于少数贸易伙伴的少数产品,加工贸易逐渐成为全球农产品贸易的主流,发展高附加值农产品贸易成为各国农业贸易长远发展的战略选择。结论 为此,应持续优化农产品贸易布局,拓展与亚洲、拉美、非洲等新兴市场的贸易,不断提升农业全球价值链地位。     

中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易空间关联与溢出效应——基于RCEP框架下的实证

目的 探讨中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的空间关联与溢出效应,揭示中国辛辣类蔬菜外销竞争力情况,促进我国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易发展,并为相关农产品贸易政策提供借鉴。方法 文章基于反距离平方的权重矩阵测度了各伙伴国经济空间关联程度,并以2011—2020年中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的贸易额为面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,分析中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间溢出效应。结果 中国GDP、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜总产量、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜单产和绿色贸易壁垒程度的空间溢出效应显著为负,且贸易距离整体上对RCEP伙伴国的出口贸易额呈现正向的促进作用,RCEP伙伴国GDP和中国辛辣类蔬菜总产量的空间溢出效应显著为正,中国辛辣类蔬菜单产对中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间影响不显著。结论 中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易存在空间负相关关系,即表现出一定的空间聚集现象,建议强化伙伴国空间关联度、优化产品出口结构和完善质量标准体s系。     

Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分,近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势,系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法,基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据,将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应,然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现,出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素,而市场扩展效应不明显;比较而言,出口价格效应相对稳定,而出口数量效应波动较大;不同时间段首要驱动因素不同,2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素,而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素;中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格,导致出口数量出现下降态势,出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场,积极开拓发达国家市场;丰富产品出口结构,弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。     

Impacts in Uganda of rising global food prices: the role of diversified staples and limited price transmission

This study assesses the potential impact of rising world food prices on the welfare of Ugandan households. While Uganda experienced sharply higher food prices in 2008, as a landlocked, food‐exporting country the causes of those price changes were mainly regional and indirect rather than directly transmitted from global markets. Using trade volumes, food prices, and household survey data we describe how Uganda, unlike some other countries, is partially shielded from direct impacts of global food price movements. Although the majority of Ugandans are net food buyers, the adverse impact at household‐level of rising global prices is moderated by the relatively large quantity and range of staples consumed that come from home production. Moreover, several of these are not widely traded. Some population groups in Uganda are vulnerable to rising food prices, however, primarily those for whom maize is an important staple, including those dependent upon humanitarian relief and the urban poor. Only a relatively small group of Ugandan households will benefit directly and immediately from rising food prices—the significant net sellers of food crops constituting between 12% and 27% of the population. In this assessment we do not estimate the level and extent of wider second round effects from these higher prices.     

中国与“一带一路”国家农产品价格关联性研究——兼论中美贸易摩擦的影响

本文采用溢出网络方法及2010-2018年大豆、小麦、玉米月度价格数据,实证分析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间农产品价格的多维关联特征,并着重探讨中美贸易战对该价格关联性的影响.结果 显示:(1)总体而言,中国与沿线国家间的小麦、玉米价格存在较强关联性,大豆价格关联性较弱,且关联程度在全球供给冲击和A股股灾期间显著上升;...     

Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past

Recent increases in food and other commodity prices have highlighted concerns that many poor countries are net food importers and higher food prices would worsen their trade balances. In this article, we analyze the changes in food trade balances associated with the 32% increase in food prices from 2000/2001 to 2004/2005. We find a small deterioration in food trade balances of low‐income countries and an improvement in middle‐income countries. The deterioration is most severe for countries in conflict and small island states, so attention should be placed first on these countries and on a few very‐low‐income countries that are also vulnerable. Because low‐income countries as a group had much lower agricultural GDP growth rates than middle‐income countries, the answers to food vulnerability in low‐income countries should probably be addressed within the context of incentives for agricultural production.     

Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets

This article addresses how China is being affected by and is responding to the world food crisis. So far, Chinese officials have responded to higher world prices by drawing down stocks and limiting exports of major grains. These policy instruments were not available for soybeans, so domestic prices of soy and other oilseeds have risen with international prices. Using a global CGE model, we show that the initial world price rise was largely due to higher world oil prices and demand for biofuels as opposed to other factors, especially in maize and soybeans. China's response to this shock has kept domestic grain prices low relative to world grain markets and to domestic soybean prices. As grain stocks are depleted, however, demand growth will push domestic prices back into alignment. Anticipating this pressure on consumers and accelerating supply response through public investment will facilitate adjustment.     

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).     

中国水产品出口动力的三元边际分析

[目的]通过分析2000年以来中国水产品出口增长的主要动力及其结构性变化,明确中国水产品出口的变化趋势,为相关部门调整政策、适应国际水产品市场的新变化提供依据。[方法]基于2000—2020年联合国贸易数据库中的113万条大数据,文章采用三元边际分析方法对中国水产品的出口增长动力进行了多维度的分解分析。[结果]基于中国水产品出口增长的主要动力的阶段性转换,可以将2000—2020年分为3个阶段。第一阶段是2000—2007年,中国水产品的出口增长的主要动力是出口数量增加,其中初级水产品在出口数量增加的同时出口价格也在提高,而加工水产品在出口数量增长的同时出口种类也在增加。第二阶段是2007—2015年,中国水产品出口增长的主要动力由出口数量增加转变为出口价格提高,初级水产品和加工水产品的主要动力都是出口价格提高。第三阶段是2015—2020年,这一时期中国水产品出口出现瓶颈,增长乏力。[结论]中国水产品出口增长的主要动力在不同时期和不同品种之间存在结构性差异。中国应采取多种措施提升水产品出口竞争力：一是以提升水产品质量为主要抓手促进出口;二是加快发展加工水产业,不断延伸和拓宽水产品产业...     

Avian influenza,non‐tariff measures and the poultry exports of China

This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on the international poultry trade. Using monthly export data from China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a random‐effect gravity model has been adopted. Emphasising the agri‐food trade in a global value chain context, the research analysis distinguishes between ‘agri‐food goods’ (mostly uncooked poultry products) and ‘processed goods’ (mostly cooked poultry products). The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a significant negative impact on a country's poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, NTMs induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but temporarily increase the cooked poultry trade. However, with a time‐lag, the cooked poultry trade may soon face increasing NTMs. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to export agri‐food products to developed countries should increase and enhance processed food production.     

The War in Ukraine,Food Security and the Role for Europe

Food-security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low-income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better-targeted support for the low-income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.     

China's agriculture: drivers of change and implications for China and the rest of world

The overall goal of this article is to identify major changes in China's agriculture/food economy and their implications for both China itself and, more importantly, to the rest of world. China has become one of the fastest‐growing economies in the world since late 1970s. GDP grew at about 10% annually in the past 30 years. China's experience shows the importance of both domestic and external policies in achieving sustainable growth. The results from this study provide significant policy implications to many countries that are currently China's major trade partners or those seeking greater economic and trade relations with China. The main conclusions on the implications of China's rapid economic growth are that China's growth will provide more opportunities than challenges to the rest of the world, on average. Overall, the rest of the world will gain from China's economic expansion though this general conclusion may not hold for some countries.     

China's financialized soybeans: The fault lines of neomercantilism narratives in international food regime analyses

Neomercantilism is commonly portrayed as a central mechanism of China's global agribusiness engagement. It implies reordering the international food regime by moving away from financial and trade liberalization and securing stable import supplies and price controls under state support. However, this article raises an alternative interpretation through an empirical-rich investigation of the prominence of the state-owned China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) in the soybean commodity chain. The article draws upon analyses of the Chinese state and international food regime to demonstrate that recent changes in state-capital relations during the Xi Jinping administration propelled forms of capital accumulation based on financial speculation and shareholder values. I conclude that state-driven internationalization has placed Chinese agribusiness in an advantageous position within global finance rather than challenging it through agrarian neomercantilist strategies.     

中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易效率及潜力研究

目的 文章基于2010—2019年中国与区域全面经济伙伴关系协定国家（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, 以下简称RCEP国家）农产品进口贸易的面板数据,从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易国别数据切入,研究中国同RCEP国家的农产品进口贸易效率及潜力,为中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易的深入发展提出相关政策建议。方法 采用随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国自RCEP国家进口农产品的平均效率为0.54;中国与RCEP国家经济规模、班轮运输连通性指数和货币自由度等因素提升了进口贸易效率,人口规模和贸易自由度等因素阻碍了进口贸易效率的提升;从国别差异看,中国自澳大利亚和新西兰农产品进口贸易潜力和可拓展空间较大;从农产品分类看,4类农产品的进口贸易效率较高;总体而言,进口效率与潜力存在较大的国别异质性,增长拓展空间有待进一步释放。结论 中国应进一步加强同RCEP国家的海陆航基础设施建设等合作,扩大同RCEP国家,特别是贸易效率低下而未来潜力巨大的新西兰等国的农产品进口贸易。     

World food prices and poverty in Indonesia

Spikes in international food prices in 2007–2008 worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, both rural and urban, but only by small amounts. The paper reaches this conclusion using a multisectoral and multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The negative effect on poor consumers, operating through their living costs, outweighed the positive effect on poor farmers, operating through their incomes. Indonesia's post‐2004 rice import restrictions shielded its internal rice market from the temporary world price increases, muting the increase in poverty. But it did this only by imposing large and permanent increases in both domestic rice prices and poverty incidence. Poverty incidence increased more among rural than urban people, even though higher agricultural prices mean higher incomes for many of the rural poor. Gains to poor farmers were outweighed by the losses incurred by the large number of rural poor who are net buyers of food, and the fact that food represents a large share of their total budgets, even larger on average than for the urban poor. The main beneficiaries of higher food prices are not the rural poor, but the owners of agricultural land and capital, many of whom are urban based.     

Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique

Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.