WAGNER'S LAW: AN ECONOMETRIC TEST FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1960‐2006

The main objective for this paper is to test Wagner's law by analysing the causal relationships between real government expenditure and real income for South Africa for the period 1960‐2006. The paper tests the long‐run relationship between the two variables using the autoregressive distributive lag approach to cointegration suggested by Pesaran et al. We use the Granger non‐causality test procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto, which uses a vector autoregression model to test for the causal link between the two. Evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long‐run relationship between government expenditure and income. However, support for Wagner's law would require unidirectional causality from income to government expenditure. Therefore, cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner's law, but not sufficient. This research does find a long‐run relationship between real per capita government expenditure and real per capita income. Results for the short‐run causality find bidirectional causality. On the basis of empirical results in this paper, one may tentatively conclude that Wagner's law finds no support in South Africa.     

An integration of short run neokeynesian analysis and growth theory

Summary The paper provides a synthesis of short run Neo-Keynesian theory and long run growth models. The general approach is illustrated with the analysis of the short run and long run effect of changes in government spending when government budget deficits and surpluses are bond-financed. Such pure fiscal policy actions are shown to have long run effects on real variables even in a full employment model. The stability properties of the model turn out to depend crucially on the speed of adjustment of inflationary expectations.This paper is based on my Ph.D. DissertationTemporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium. The advice and help of James Tobin, Gary Smith and Katsuhito Iwai are gratefully acknowledged. I have also benefitted from discussions with Gregory Chow. The detailed and wide-ranging comments of Dr. Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert and Dr. S. K. Kuipers on earlier drafts of this paper were most valuable, both as regards substance and form.Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University.     

Factor shares,inequality, and capital flows

I present an endogenous growth model where innovations are factor saving and model the choice of technologies in an Overlapping Generations framework. Markets are competitive and factor prices are determined by marginal productivity of factors; therefore, the income share of reproducible factors increases with the stage of development. Beyond the standard results of this type of model I find that (i) without bequests long‐run growth is not possible, (ii) if the economy presents long‐run growth then intrageneration inequality may last forever but if the economy does not present long‐run growth then in steady state, there is no intrageneration inequality, (iii) when the economy is open, the pattern of capital flows depends not only on the relative abundance of factors but also on the technologies and, for this reason, capital may not flow from rich to poor economies, and (iv) consistently, capital flows may not help to break poverty traps.     

A time‐series analysis of Zimbabwe's corn sales to the Grain Marketing Board

This article considers methods of cointegration testing to construct a model of Zimbabwe ‘s corn sector. Corn production, sales of corn to the government, the price of corn, and price of beef are linked together in one long‐run equilibrium (cointegrating) relation. Only the price of beef is not weakly exogenous to perturbations in this relation. That is to say, when these variables are out of long‐run equilibrium, it is through subsequent changes in the price of beef that equilibrium is restored. The other variables do not respond to a long‐run disequilibrium. Short‐run forecasts from this model are compared with expert opinion forecasts made by the government's marketing board. Possibilities for improvement in long‐run forecasting and planning are discussed.     

Causal Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven African Countries

This paper utilizes cointegration and the vector error‐correction model (VECM) to explore the causal relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings for Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and Zambia. Specifically, three analyses were undertaken. First, the time series properties of economic growth and domestic savings were ascertained with the help of the augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root procedure. Second, the long‐run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings was examined in the context of the Johansen and Juselius (1990) framework. Finally, a Granger‐causality test was undertaken to determine the direction of causality between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings. The results indicate one order of integration [I(1)] for each of the series. The results of the cointegration tests suggest that there is a long‐run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of savings. The results from the Granger‐causality tests indicate that contrary to the conventional wisdom, economic growth prima facie causes growth rate of domestic savings for most of the countries under consideration.     

Réactions du Marché d’Actions aux Chocs sur les Taux d’Intérêt de Court Terme,le Cas d’un Marché Emergent: la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)

Abstract: Macroeconomics in general and interest rate policy in particular are believed, from a theoretical point of view, to act on stock market movements. This paper discusses this issue in the case of the West African stock market by studying the Regional Securities Exchange (la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)) stock market reactions to interest rates innovations. Our results, based on VAR analysis, show that the BRVM stock market does not react immediately to short‐run interest rates’ innovations. Nevertheless, backed reactions occur in imminent periods: at the earliest in the second period and at the latest in the sixth period according to VAR models used. Long‐term effects of short‐term interest rates’ innovations on stock prices returns depend on models specified, on the kind of interest rate and on data frequency. Thus, the long‐term effect of central bank rent rates’ innovations is relatively more important than the one related to interbank rate's innovations. The previous situation of the market is, however, the main determinant of the change of stock prices. Our results show also that stock prices and short‐run interest rates have a similar reaction to both exchange rate and inflation rate's innovations.     

The impact of parental migration on non-cognitive abilities of left behind children in northwestern China

Despite the vast literature surrounding various aspects of left behind children (LBC)’s development in China, very few studies have examined the development of, and impact on their non-cognitive abilities as a result of parental migration. Using survey data consisting of 5002 eighth graders from 160 middle schools in northwestern China, this paper investigates how parental migration affects children’s non-cognitive abilities, as is measured by Big Five components of conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, and openness, as well as children’s grit. We narrow our analysis to long run and short run migration subsamples and use the propensity score matching method to address the potential selection bias issue. Our results show that mother’s migration is particularly harmful to the development of children’s non-cognitive abilities, as mother is usually the primary caregiver and mother’s migration makes less economic contribution to the family. In the long run, LBC with migrant mother tend to have lower levels of conscientiousness and grit; they also have higher level of neuroticism (or lower level of emotional stability). In the short run, when mother migrates, children tend to have lower levels of conscientiousness, agreeableness and openness.     

Managing Future Oil Revenues in Ghana: An Assessment of Alternative Allocation Options*

Abstract: Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of resource booms often concentrate on the short‐run Dutch disease effects of public expenditure, ignoring the possible long‐term effects of alternative revenue‐allocation options and the supply‐side impact of royalty‐financed public investments. In a simple model applied here, the government decides the level and timing of resource‐rent spending. This model also considers productivity spillovers over time, which may exhibit a sector bias toward domestic production or exports. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model is used to simulate the effect of temporary oil revenue inflows to Ghana. The simulations show that beyond the short‐run Dutch disease effects, the relationship between windfall profits, growth, and households’ welfare is less straightforward than what the simple model of the ‘resource curse’ suggests. The DCGE model results suggest that designing a rule that allocates oil revenues to both productivity‐enhancing investments and an oil fund is crucial to achieving shared growth and macroeconomic stability.     

Is There any Threshold in the Relationship Between Mother's Education and Child Health? Evidence from Nigeria

The literature on mother's education and child health casually observes some nonlinearities and also a threshold in the relationship. Even though this nonlinearity or threshold has significant bearing on policy matters such as quality of education, any rigorous attempt to address this issue is missing in the literature. With height for age z‐score as a proxy for long‐run child health capital, regression results reveal that there are significant effects of mother's education on child health if mothers do not continue past primary school. Rather, poor quality of education at the primary level, especially literacy, is argued to have given rise to this threshold. It indicates that greater public investment in improving quality of education at the primary level is essential for maximizing the nonmarket outcomes of girls’ education in developing countries.     

Globalisation and its discontents: an Indonesian perspective

It is indeed a great honour for me to give the 2011 Heinz Arndt Memorial Lecture. The first time I met the great Professor Heinz Arndt was as a nine‐year‐old back in 1966 when our family first came to Canberra and Heinz was my father's (Panglaykim) new boss. I recall that he picked us up at the airport and within the first week we had visited his house in Deakin, where he gave me and my two brothers games such as Chinese checkers and books that his own kids had outgrown. So my first thought was: what a kind and thoughtful man. Little did I know that I would end up being what he often termed his ‘academic grandchild’. I never took a class from Heinz or was fortunate enough to be supervised by him. However, I had many interactions with him when I was a student at the Australian National University (ANU) and, upon graduation, as an aspiring young academic. He had an important influence on the course of my life. First, he encouraged me to do my PhD in the USA. After I completed my masters at the ANU under Peter Drysdale, I toyed with the idea of continuing with a PhD at the Research School of Pacific Studies. However, Heinz convinced me to go to the USA because he thought it would widen my horizons. He was right. Second, there was the importance of being disciplined and thorough in undertaking country or regional research. One of the most important initiation exercises for an academic working on Indonesia was to do a ‘Survey of Recent Developments’ for the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. I recall being given a yellowed document that had been formulated by Heinz with precise guidelines on topics, structure, and people to see and interview. We found similar guidelines on regional surveys when we did economic surveys of all the provinces a few years later. I found that doing the research and interviews for the survey was the easy part. The hard part was the two weeks spent in Canberra writing up the survey and being subjected to peer review. The draft was presented to the ‘editorial team’ and others, including, of course, the venerable Professor Arndt. I am glad to say that I passed in terms of substance; but of course there were lots of edits to do following Heniz's traditional typed‐up comments, both general and specific! Third, despite being a formidable figure and someone with a reputation for strong opinions, Heinz was the same kind and thoughtful man I remembered as a nine‐year‐old. He always had the time of day for the young academics, especially those from Indonesia. I had many cups of tea with him as a student and later as an aspiring academic. I still recall his room in University House filled with his books and the filing cabinet near the bathroom, where he would inevitably pull out the right references and reading materials that one needed. I learned a lot about the importance of mentoring and encouraging the young—many of whom have succeeded and are in the room today. This lecture is to honour Professor Heinz Arndt. I believe Professor Arndt was a true internationalist and therefore he would tackle with gusto the rumblings of discontent on globalisation. He would be thorough in trying to understand the manifestations of globalisation and its sources of discontent. He would also be of the firm belief that the benefits of globalisation outweigh its costs and come up with strategic ideas on how to best manage globalisation to counter ‘globaphobia’. I hope I do justice to this topic in the Heinz Arndt tradition.     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas–Uzawa model

In the traditional literature on the Lucas–Uzawa model, it is proved that in the so‐called normal parametric case, human capital stock grows at a rate greater than its long‐run counterpart in the neighbourhood of the long‐run balanced growth path. We first prove that the claim is true outside the neighborhood of balanced growth paths. More importantly, we identify a crucial asymmetry: whatever the parametric case considered, physical capital stock always grows at a rate lower than its long‐run counterpart when the ratio of physical to human capital is above its long‐run value.     

MONEY,OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN AFRICAN ECONOMIES1

This paper examines the long‐run money‐inflation relation for 36 African countries using cross‐section and panel data analysis. The focus is on the recent claim by De Grauwe and Polan that the common finding in multi‐country studies of a strong positive link typically reflects the presence of high‐inflation countries in the sample and on Nelson's criticisms of the data and methodology employed in that study. Adjusting the De Grauwe and Polan methodology to take account of many of Nelson's criticisms, I confirm a weak long‐run relation between money growth and inflation for countries when money growth and inflation are below 10%, but a strong relation when money growth and inflation move much above that number. This result is not dependent on the inclusion of high inflation countries in the cross‐section and panel data samples.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE FISHER EFFECT IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The paper analyses the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates during a period of inflation targeting in South Africa, i.e. from 2000 to 2005. Specifically, it investigates the Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates move one‐to‐one with expected inflation, leaving the real interest rate unaffected. The analysis distinguishes between a short‐run Fisher effect and a long‐run Fisher effect. Using cointegration and error correction models (for monthly data for the period April 2000 to July 2005), it was found that the short‐run Fisher hypothesis did not hold during the relevant period under the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa. This is attributed to a combination of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) control over short‐term interest rates and the effects of the monetary transmission mechanism. The long‐run Fisher hypothesis could not be confirmed in its strictest form: while changes in inflation expectations move in the same direction as the nominal long‐term interest rate. This suggests that monetary policy has an influence on the real long‐term interest rate, which has positive implications for general economic activity, thus confirming the credibility of the inflation targeting framework.     

Social Returns to Education: Macro-Evidence

Summary This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework. I use improved schooling data and a macro version of the Mincer relationship between education and wages for individual workers. The results suggest that an increase by one year of the average education level of the labor force would increase labor productivity by 7–10% in the short run and by 11–15% in the long run. Some evidence is found for the presence of dynamic human capital spillovers: the human capital stock increases prospective economic growth. The empirical results are used to quantify the macroeconomic impact of skill upgrading as agreed upon in the European Union’s Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs. Finally, the paper discusses discrepancies between private and social returns to education. I would like to thank two referees, Dinand Webbink, Peter Wobst, and participants of the brown bag lunch seminar series at the Enterprise and Industry Directorate-General of the European Commission for helpful comments. Views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the European Commission or the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis*

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long‐run and short‐run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom‐position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.     

Women's empowerment and child health outcomes in Ghana

This study investigates whether women's empowerment, measured by education attainment relative to her partner, decision‐making, and domestic violence is related to nutritional status of children in Ghana. Using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, the study examines the effect of women empowerment on child's nutritional status at different points in its conditional distributions using ordinary least squares and quantile regression estimation technique. The study observes that women's empowerment is associated with improvement in the nutritional status of children with Z‐scores less than ?4 and ?3 standard deviations, for acutely and severely malnourished children respectively in the long run. The study recommends that the Ministry for Gender and Social Protection should educate male partners on the need for women participation in decision‐making at the household level as well as make formal education accessible to women.     

Discussion of “Communicated Values as Informal Controls: Promoting Quality While Undermining Productivity?”

Kachelmeier, Thornock, and Williamson ( 2016 ) investigate experimentally whether an employer's value statement can affect the way employees cognitively represent how they should approach a multi‐attribute task, and therefore performance. Counter‐intuitively, but consistent with their theory, they find that the value statement negatively affects performance for piece‐rate incentivized participants. In my discussion, I elaborate on my comments from the 2013 CAR Conference. Specifically, I discuss contexts where a firm's value statement may have positive effects on performance, and the importance of conducting research investigating how the decisions made by management accountants affect learning.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.