Financial Markets and Economic Growth

The current economic problems in Southeast Asia can be attributed not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little . Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies do not have welldeveloped capital markets and so remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth.
For all its benefits, banking is not only basically 19th-century technology, but disaster-prone technology. The extreme maturity (and, in some cases, currency) mismatch on banks' balance sheets plus the first-come, first-served nature of the deposit obligations mean that banks are inherently vulnerable to massive runs by depositors—and that their economies are subjected to periodic credit crunches. And, as the author says, in the summer of 1997 a banking-driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history.
In this century, In this century, the U.S. economy has steadily reduced its dependence on banks by developing dispersed and decentralized financial markets. In so doing, it has increased the efficiency of the U.S. capital allocation process and reduced its susceptibility to the credit crunches that have occurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems have served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or complement bank products and services.     

FDI、金融市场与经济增长

本文根据不同的金融市场类型,利用全国28个省市自治区1978-2007年的数据,检验了信贷市场、资本市场在FDI促进经济增长过程中所发挥的作用.为保证结果的稳健性,本文还分别对我国东、中、西部地区进行了独立研究.研究的实证结果总体上支持信贷市场在提高FDI溢出效应以促进经济增长方面的作用较资本市场更为有效的观点.     

金融市场与经济增长

金融市场与经济增长的关系一直是西方经济研究的重点,然而传统增长理论认为金融市场是经济发展的结果而非原因,因此强调经济增长。然而20世纪90年代内生增长模型的建立,金融市场与经济增长的关系得以重新思考。大量的实证研究表明,金融市场对经济增长具有直接影响,一般情况下,具有完整和高效率金融市场的国家,经济增长率往往较高,而且能实现经济的持续增长。     

区域金融发展与经济增长——基于广西与江苏的比较视角

通过对广西与江苏1978—2007年金融发展与经济增长的时间序列数据进行检验,表明两省金融发展与经济增长间存在协整关系,且两省的金融规模的扩大都能正向的促进经济的增长;长期因果关系表明:广西的金融发展属于供给引导型,而江苏的金融发展属于需求跟进型;而在短期,广西的金融发展与经济增长不存在明显的因果关系,而江苏的经济增长是金融规模指标的格兰杰原因,金融结构指标与经济增长间存在双向的因果关系。     

中国金融自由化与经济增长

首先,采用主成分分析法,选取8个指标构建了中国金融自由化指数,发现我国自改革开放以来,金融自由化程度是逐步加深的,特别是进入2000年以来,自由化步伐尤快.然后,通过对金融自由化与经济增长的分析发现,金融自由化与经济增长存在双Granger因果关系,而且金融自由化与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系.从误差修正模型看,误差修正项对偏离长期均衡的调整力度较大.最后,从利率、融资多元化、技术进步、资源配置以及公司治理五个方面,探讨了金融自由化影响经济增长的路径.     

Economic Growth and Financial Statement Verification

We use a proprietary data set of financial statements collected by banks to examine whether economic growth is related to the use of financial statement verification in debt financing. Exploiting the distinct economic growth and contraction patterns of the construction industry over the years 2002–2011, our estimates reveal that banks reduced their collection of unqualified audited financial statements from construction firms at nearly twice the rate of firms in other industries during the housing boom period before 2008. This reduction was most severe in the regions that experienced the most significant construction growth. These trends reversed during the subsequent housing crisis in 2008–2011 when construction activity contracted. Moreover, using bank‐ and firm‐level data, we find a strong negative (positive) relation between audited financial statements during the growth period, and subsequent loan losses (construction firm survival) during the contraction period. Collectively, our results reveal that macroeconomic fluctuations produce temporal shifts in the overall level of financial statement verification and temporal shifts in verification are related to bank loan portfolio quality and borrower performance.     

区域金融发展与区域经济增长——基于门限模型的实证分析

本文应用面板数据门限模型,对我国区域金融发展与区域经济增长进行实证分析.研究发现,金融发展速度对经济增长速度的作用比消费和投资都要大很多;我国各地区金融发展水平存在较低、中等和较高三个区制;属于区制Ⅱ的地区,金融发展速度对经济的增长速度作用最大,此时有利于相对贫穷地区追赶富裕地区;属于区制Ⅰ的地区,金融发展速度与经济增长的速度可能出现负的相关关系,三个区制的门限效应显著.由此我们在寻求加快落后地区经济增长速度的时候,应该避免依靠投资和消费的作用,而要着重考虑依靠地区金融发展作用,尤其是利用地区金融发展到一定水平值之后,即当此水平值超过区制Ⅱ的门限值以后,地区金融发展对经济发展所产生的巨大倍数效应,使地区的经济增长走上高速发展的路径.     

Financial Distortions and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence

Conventional wisdom suggests a negative relation between financial distortions and economic growth. This paper incorporates the financial premium, a good proxy for the degree of restrictions on financial transactions, into a standard AK-type endogenous growth model. The analytical results suggest that such a relationship does not exist. Economic growth is insulated by the financial premium, contrasting with previously held beliefs. Agents' patience and the attitude of relative risk aversion are noteworthy in explaining the effects of external distortions on economic growth. Our findings may apply to economies with parallel exchange markets.     

企业家精神视角下的金融发展与区域经济增长

金融发展、企业家精神是经济增长的重要因素。本文基于2000-2010年我国30个省市面板数据,采用可行的广义最小二乘估计法,对我国金融发展规模、企业家精神与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:(1)金融发展能够促进我国经济增长,但其增长效应存在地区差异;(2)企业家精神对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但企业家创新精神的经济增长效应远远低于企业家创业精神的经济增长效应;(3)金融发展主要是通过为企业家创业提供资金支持来促进我国经济增长。这些结论对于政策制定者有一定的实践意义。     

Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Monetary policy and financial markets are intrinsically linked. Central banks conduct monetary policy by influencing financial market prices. Financial market prices reflect the expectations of market participants about future economic and monetary developments. Monetary policy works primarily through expectations. Transparency and credibility render monetary policy more effective. However, they are no substitutes for action. If a credible central bank uses words with the explicit aim of substituting them for action, it will risk losing credibility. To avoid what has been described as “the dog chasing its tail” problem, central banks must exercise caution in basing their monetary policy decisions on financial market information. The information about expected future developments reflected in market prices must be continuously cross-checked against economic and monetary indicators in what amounts to a “checks and balances” approach to monetary policy.     

中国金融发展与经济增长研究综述

金融发展与经济增长的关系是金融发展理论的核心问题,目前,学术界对二者的关系仍存争议.本文首先从理论层面回顾了金融与经济之关系的产生和演变路径,在此基础上,梳理总结了关于金融与经济关系的主要学术观点以及实证研究领域,最后,提出了未来的研究趋势和有待深入研究的问题.     

金融市场、FDI技术溢出与经济增长

本文对国外有关金融市场影响FDI溢出效应进而影响经济增长的理论文献进行了综述,提出要使金融市场对FDI的技术溢出产生正效应进而促进经济增长,中国就必须继续加大金融改革的步伐,在促进金融市场对外开放的同时.大力促进金融市场的对内开放、切实改善中小企业的金融环境、成立科技开发银行、大力完善中国的资本市场.     

金融市场、FDI技术溢出与经济增长

本文对国外有关金融市场影响FDI溢出效应进而影响经济增长的理论文献进行了综述,提出要使金融市场对FDI的技术溢出产生正效应进而促进经济增长,中国就必须继续加大金融改革的步伐,在促进金融市场对外开放的同时,大力促进金融市场的对内开放、切实改善中小企业的金融环境、成立科技开发银行、大力完善中国的资本市场。     

Financial Reforms and Emerging Markets

In this discussion chapter, the author summarizes the main features of recent financial developments in emerging markets, including market development, governance and regulatory issues. In light of the financial crises that have taken place in those markets, emphasis is made on the actual path of reforms, main policy lessons and issues of concern from the country cases presented in the panel.     

金融发展与地区经济增长悖论

通过分析以银行贷款占GDP的比例所衡量的金融发展与经济增长速度之间的关系,我们发现,所有省份的金融发展水平与经济增长速度之间呈反向变动关系,即存在地区金融发展程度与经济增长速度之间的悖论。悖论产生的直接原因是金融中介体系配置资金的低效率,悖论形成的深层次原因是行政主导的金融体制。在新的历史时期,行政主导的金融体制更加日益暴露出严重的问题。因此要加快金融体制改革,变二元金融为市场主导的一元金融。     

Financial Markets and Investment Externalities

This address explores the link between financial market shocks, investment choices, and various externalities that can arise from these choices. My analysis, which emphasizes differences between shocks to debt and equity markets, provides insights about some stylized facts from the macro finance literature. These insights are illustrated with a discussion of the technology boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the housing boom and bust in the mid‐2000s.     

Financial Markets Trends and Studies of Singapore Futures Markets

In this paper we explore some recent trends in the financial market and also report some studies of the Singapore futures markets. A characterization of trends shows that national securities markets are much closer than before. This means the linkages between securities and their derivatives and amongst themselves have be come much stronger. Secondly, the advent of sophisticated risk products and instruments and the knowledge to use them effectively would become a common theme together with the idea of value enhancements. Thirdly, computerizations and the internet will play an increasingly important role. So will empirical financial research become increasingly microscopic. The discussion will be supported by the experiences of the Singapore futures markets and various empirical research evidences. The paper also provides a detailed study of causality-in-variance test of information transmission between SIMEX and Osaka Stock Exchange on the Nikkei 225 stock index futures trading prior to, during, and immediately after the announcement of the collapse of Barings. The results are indicative of very strong international market linkages and a portent of things to come.     

经济增长与金融发展：来自中国的时间序列经验证据

在运用主要成分分析法构建金融发展指数的基础上．本文在三变量的向量自回归（VAR）框架下考察了中国1978-2007年期间金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系。利用时间序列数据．采用协整和向量误差修正模型（VECM）计量方法进行了Granger因果关系检验．结果显示存在着从经济增长到金融发展的单一方向因果关系,支持了Robinson长期来看经济增长导致了金融发展的观点。     

区域金融发展与经济增长的因果关系

区域金融的发展是以一定区域经济增长为条件的,反过来,区域金融的发展对区域经济增长具有较大的推动作用.本文以江西为例对区域金融发展与区域经济增长的关系进行实证分析.结果显示,代表江西经济增长的GDP与代表金融发展的金融相关比率互为Granger因果关系.     

Financial Access and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This study empirically analyzes the effects of financial access on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. By estimating panel data on thirty-seven countries from Sub-Saharan Africa between 2004 and 2012, we examine whether improved access to financial services has contributed to economic growth in this region. The empirical results clearly indicate that financial access has a statistically significant and robust effect on increasing economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.