前景理论框架下基于期望的损失厌恶报童博弈

本文运用前景理论,考虑了损失厌恶报童期望水平对其损失厌恶程度的影响,扩展了损失厌恶报童模型,分析了多个基于期望的损失厌恶报童向一个风险中性供应商竞争订货的情形,研究了报童相关参数对报童均衡总订货量的影响。在随机需求情形下引入期望参考利润水平,首先基于前景理论建立单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童效用函数,其次推导出多个基于期望的损失厌恶报童博弈模型,然后证明了该博弈模型对称纯策略纳什均衡的存在性和唯一性,推导出均衡总订货量的表达式并分析了均衡总订货量与报童数量、损失厌恶系数、期望水平的关系,最后通过算例论证了均衡总订货量与报童数量、损失厌恶系数和期望水平之间关系的正确性,进而比较分析了风险中性报童最优订货量、单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童最优订货量以及均衡总订货量之间的关系。结果表明,均衡总订货量随着报童数量的增多而增加,随着损失厌恶系数的增大而减少,随着期望水平的增大而减少;单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童最优订货量要小于风险中性报童最优订货量以及均衡总订货量。     

上市公司股权质押融资方式研究——以乐视网高股权质押率为例

在目前全球经济出现疲软,国家信贷政策日渐严苛的条件下,股权质押融资成为了企业融资难、担保难等问题下的新型融资途径。本文以乐视网高股权质押率事件为案例,分析了企业通过股权质押这种新型融资方式下的融资风险与前景。股权质押融资虽然有利于企业在不抵押实物状态下获取资金,但是由于国内市场经济条件和相关法律环境还不够成熟,质押物价值易出现较大变化,因此以该方式融资的质押风险也很大。     

考虑损失厌恶和锚定效应的零售商订货研究

库存问题是影响工业企业运营效率的重要因素, 为了研究非理性心理对零售商订货行为的影响, 本文在经典报童问题基础上, 结合决策行为中损失厌恶心理和锚定不充分调整启发式, 对零售商订货量进行了研究。 （1） 对具有损失厌恶和锚定效应的零售商订货进行建模; （2） 研究了损失厌恶系数、锚定系数以及随机误差对零售商最优订货量的影响; （3） 进行算例分析, 并且分析了损失厌恶系数和锚定系数对零售商订货量的联合影响。 发现锚定系数对零售商订货量的影响远大于损失厌恶系数, 但在低利润产品条件下, 决策者对历史信息的锚定行为在一定程度上能中和损失厌恶导致的零售商订货量偏差。     

存货质押融资分阶段利率决策模型的构建

随着保理融资各交易阶段的进行,保理商所承受的风险相对由高至低,保理商利润非负的临界质押率水平及利率水平都发生了相应的动态变化。从价格波动规律出发,以进出口保理融资业务为代表,在满足下侧风险限制条件下,提出保理商针对各交易阶段提供融资业务利率的决策模型,并在此基础上分析保理融资中质押率、价格、违约可能性与利率的相互关系。研究得出利率水平随着各交易阶段的进行呈逐渐降低的趋势,灵活把握融资各阶段质押物价值、违约等风险因子变化,有利于降低融资风险性。     

基于粗糙集的银行存货质押业务投资决策研究

针对银行在存货质押业务筛选中缺乏有效方法,将决策粗糙集引入到存货质押业务筛选中,在考虑延迟决策最优投入的情况下,建立了一个基于期望损失最小下阈值和先验概率对比的决策模型。模型中根据投资决策下的收入和支出来确定损失函数,从而确定决策阈值,通过历史数据构建信息表确定先验概率,经阈值和先验概率二者对比,得出银行针对业务的最优决策,算例分析显示模型对银行业务投资决策有一定的借鉴意义。     

拓宽券商融资渠道 促进资本市场发展 证券公司股票质押贷款管理办法出台

２月１３日,中国人民银行和中国证监会联合发布了《证券公司股票质押贷款管理办法》,允许符合条件的证券公司以自营的股票和证券投资基金券作质押向商业银行借款。据称,此举旨在规范股票质押贷款业务,拓宽券商融资渠道,防范金融风险,促进我国资本市场的稳健发展。《办法》规定,用作股票质押贷款的质押物,须是在证券交易所上市流通的、综合类证券公司自营的人民币普通股票（Ａ股）和证券投资基金券;借款人为依照《中华人民共和国证券法》设立的综合类证券公司总公司;贷款人为经中国人民银行总行批准的国有独资商业银行及其授权分行…     

在需求时变情形下供应链的补货与定价决策研究

随着竞争的日益激烈，时间已成为影响产品价格和需求量的重要因素。本文考虑时间对价格和需求量的影响，利用博弈理论对供应链的供需关系及其补货与定价决策作了定量研究。在制造商首先确定销售价，配送商随后选择订货量的假设前提下，笔者导出了供方的最优定价和需方的最优订货量．即纳什均衡结果。在均衡状态下，供需双方在各补货周期内的利润随时问推移而减少，且当双方的补货周期相同时各方在整个经济寿命周期内的利润最大。此外，供应链的经济寿命周期随产品价格的下降速率增加而缩小。最后，我们通过计算实例说明了上述结果。     

考虑渠道权力结构和风险规避的闭环供应链差异定价机制研究

本文研究了渠道权力结构和参与者的风险规避态度对闭环供应链差异定价机制的影响.假设制造商为风险中性者而零售商是风险规避者,利用均值——方差理论得到了制造商的期望利润函数和零售商的期望效用函数,在此基础上探讨制造商主导、零售商主导和垂直纳什均衡3种渠道权力结构下的闭环供应链差异定价策略与利润分配问题.本文还分别比较了不同权力结构下新制造产品和再制造产品的最优批发价格、最优零售价格、制造商的最优期望利润以及零售商的最优期望效用,推导了零售商的风险规避系数对最优价格和最优产量的影响,最后结合算例仿真了渠道成员利润(效用)随风险规避系数和消费者偏好系数等参数的变化规律,结果表明:制造商和零售商形成垂直纳什均衡时的闭环供应链绩效最优,其次是制造商主导的闭环供应链,最差的是零售商主导的闭环供应链.     

零售商的风险规避特性和公平偏好对绿色供应链运作的影响

针对市场需求的不确定性,本文通过建立风险规避型零售商与风险中性供应商的Stackelberg博弈模型,供应商为主导者,综合考虑零售商风险规避特性和公平偏好心理对该供应链运作产生的影响。研究发现,当风险规避型零售商不具有公平意识时,零售商的风险规避程度与供应商的批发价、绿色创新投入水平以及供应商和供应链整体的效用正相关;供应商的绿色成本系数的大小可影响风险规避程度对产品售价以及零售商效用的影响。当风险规避型零售商具有公平偏好时,零售商的公平偏好负向影响产品售价、批发价以及供应商绿色投入水平和供应商效用;零售商公平偏好对零售商以及供应链效用产生的影响受到零售商风险规避程度的影响。     

分散决策下的双渠道供应链补偿策略——基于消费者渠道选择行为

为了有效解决由于对消费者的争夺从而引发的渠道之间关于定价、服务水平、利润等方面的冲突,基于消费者渠道选择行为,构建了网络直销市场与传统零售市场需求模型和双渠道供应链利润模型,运用Stackelberg模型,在制造商与零售商实施分决策时,通过制造商对零售商实施补偿激励前后的对比,分析了消费者渠道选择行为对网络直销渠道和传统零售渠道定价、制造商与零售商利润以及供应链总利润的影响,并求得最优定价及制造商的最优补偿额度和零售商的最优销售努力水平,进行了不同情况下的双渠道供应链利润的比较分析。结果表明,无论制造商是否实施补偿激励,都应随着网络消费者比例的增加而增加其网络直销价格;零售商的零售渠道价格应根据网络消费者比例的增加先降低到一定水平后再提升。当更多的消费者选择网络直销渠道时,制造商的补偿激励水平和零售商的销售努力程度均会下降。制造商应提高其补偿水平,进而激发零售商提高销售的努力水平,并使双方利润及供应链总利润最大化。研究结果为基于消费者选择行为的供应链补偿研究提供了新方法,对双渠道的供应链补偿研究有借鉴意义。     

Economic lot-sizing and dynamic quantity competition

We study a problem of dynamic quantity competition in continuous time with two competing retailers facing different replenishment cost structures. Retailer 1 faces fixed ordering costs and variable procurement costs and all inventory kept in stock is subject to holding costs. Retailer 2 only faces variable procurement costs. Both retailers are allowed to change their sales quantities dynamically over time. Following the structure of the economic order quantity (EOQ) model, retailer 1 places replenishment orders in batches and retailer 2 follows a just-in-time (JIT) policy. The objective of both retailers is to maximize their individual average profit anticipating the competitor's replenishment and output decisions. The problem is solved by a two-stage hierarchical optimization approach using backwards induction. The second-stage model is a differential game in output quantities between the two retailers for a given cycle length. At the first stage, the replenishment policy is determined. We prove the existence of a unique optimal solution and derive an open-loop Nash equilibrium. We show that both retailers follow contrary output strategies over the order cycle. The EOQ retailer, driven by inventory holding costs, decreases his market share whereas the output of the JIT retailer increases. Moreover, depending on the cost structure, the EOQ retailer might partially be a monopolist. At the first stage, the EOQ retailer determines the cycle length, anticipating the optimal output trajectories at the second stage.     

Impact of loss aversion on the newsvendor game with product substitution

This paper studies a newsvendor game in which two substitutable products are sold by two different retailers (newsvendors) with loss-averse preferences. Each loss-averse retailer facing stochastic customer demand and deterministic substitution rate will make an order quantity decision to maximize his expected utility. Since product substitution causes two retailers to make decisions in a competitive environment, game theory is used to find the retailers' optimal order quantities. It is shown that under certain conditions, there exists a unique Nash equilibrium in the newsvendor game. Under a symmetry assumption, each retailer's equilibrium order quantity is decreasing in the loss aversion coefficient and increasing in the substitution rate. Further, if the effect of loss aversion on the order quantity is strong enough to dominate the effect of competition, the total inventory level of a decentralized supply chain will be lower than that of a centralized supply chain. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate our results.     

Product substitution in different weights and brands considering customer segmentation and panic buying behavior

Due to recent supply disruptions, there has been a rapid increase in panic buying. This study considers a wholesaler selling two brands of a product with multiple weights and produced by different manufacturers to multiple retailers. The products are substituted based on weight (same brand) and a competitor’s brand over two periods. In the first period (panic situation), the wholesaler attempts to retain the inventory to satisfy the retailer. In the second period (supply disruption), retailers are willing to accept the substitute products. The wholesaler segregates the retailers into high and low indexed customers, where the high indexed retailers (provide higher profit) order greater quantities than the low indexed retailers. The objective of this model is to determine the optimal numbers for ordering quantities and substitutions to maximize total profit. Moreover, supply disruption for both single and multiple brands is analyzed, along with the influence of different degrees of supply disruption and panic rate on decisions and profits. Finally, we compare the models with and without customer-segmented substitution and brand substitution. In addition, other model extensions are discussed, such as an increase in the price in the second period.     

Optimal ordering policies in response to a discount offer

Sometimes supplier offers a temporary price discount to increase cash flow or decrease the inventory level of certain items. Thus, the manufacturer may be able to improve the effectiveness of his inventory system by ordering a special quantity at this sale period. In this paper, economic order quantity (EOQ) models with a discounted price are developed to obtain the optimal ordering policy during the sale period for five different cases: (a) coincidence of sale period with replenishment time, (b) non-coincidence of sale period with replenishment time, (c) sale period is longer than a cycle, (d) discounted price as a function of the special ordering quantity, and (e) incremental discount. Each case has its own characteristics of the sale period and the discounted price. The objective is to take the maximum possible advantage from the discounted price by ordering a special quantity during the sale period. The optimal ordering policy is obtained by maximizing the difference between the two costs: Regular EOQ cost and special quantity cost during the sale period. Moreover, a comparison of different discount scenarios is developed to sense the effect of different parameters on the ordering policies. The annual gain obtained is linearly related to the discount and the on-hand remnant inventory. Numerical analyses are provided to illustrate and testify the values of the optimal special quantity. The analysis showed an impressive improvement in the effectiveness of the inventory system when a special order is placed during the sale period. The optimal special quantity is driven for each case to visualize real-life problems. Sensitivity analysis is also initiated to study the change in the total savings with respect to the variation of the special optimal quantity.     

Managing inventory with two suppliers under yield uncertainty and risk aversion

In this paper, we consider a single-product single-period inventory model in which the retailer can source from two suppliers. The primary supplier is cheaper but unreliable in the sense that it generates supply yield uncertainty, whereas the secondary supplier is perfectly reliable but more expensive. The reliable supplier's capacity is fixed and the retailer cannot order more than the quantity reserved in advance. We study the problem in the context of a risk-averse retailer who has to determine the optimal order quantity from the primary supplier and the optimal reserved quantity from the secondary supplier. We develop the model in the perspective of a low risk averse retailer and quantify the risk via an exponential utility function. We show by numerical experiments how the resulting dual sourcing strategies differ from those obtained in the risk-neutral analysis. We also examine the sensitivity of some model-parameters on the optimal decisions.     

基于CVaR的第三方回收闭环供应链的优化与协调

利用条件风险值理论研究了第三方回收闭环供应链的优化与协调问题。在随机需求与收益共享———费用共担契约下,建立了由单个风险规避零售商、单个风险规避制造商和单个风险中性第三方回收商组成的三阶闭环供应链的条件风险值模型和基于条件风险值的最优订购与定价决策模型。在对模型进行分析的基础上,揭示了制造商和零售商的风险规避水平对最优订购量、最优定价、条件风险值及闭环供应链协调性的影响。最后通过一个算例验证了研究结论。     

Retailer policy, uncertainty reduction, and supply chain performance

We investigate how the retailer’s inventory policy affects the total cost of a serial supply chain. When the retailer uses the locally optimal (s,S) policy, there is randomness in order time and order quantity to the supplier whereas the supplier sees randomness only in order quantity for the suboptimal (R,T) policy and only in order time for another suboptimal (Q,r) policy. Using an extensive computational study, we find that the suboptimal policies perform better from the total supply chain perspective. The benefit of policy changes is magnified when the retailer costs are low, when the supplier costs are high, and when there is information sharing.     

制度环境 盈余质量与融资约束

以我国A股上市公司2007-2008年的数据为样本,研究了盈余质量和制度环境因素对融资约束的影响。研究发现,盈余质量的提高和制度环境的改善都可以有效降低企业的融资约束;在市场化水平越高的地区,盈余质量对公司面临的融资约束所产生的缓解效应更加显著;但是在市场化水平低的地区,盈余质量的提高并没有很好地降低企业面临的融资约束水平。同时得出结论:盈余质量对于企业面临的融资约束的缓释作用离不开宏观制度环境的改善,政府应该加快各地区的市场化进程。     

Optimal pricing and order quantity for the newsvendor problem with free shipping

To attract and keep customers, companies, especially those in e-business, are increasingly offering free shipping to buyers whose order sizes exceed the free shipping quantity. In this paper, given the supplier offers free shipping and the retailer faces stochastic demand, we determine the retailer's (i.e., the newsvendor's) optimal order quantity and the optimal selling price simultaneously. We consider two different ways in which price affects the demand distribution, namely price only affects the location or scale of the demand distribution. We explicitly incorporate the supplier's quantity discount and transportation cost into the models. The transportation cost function is very general, which includes those most commonly used in the literature. We numerically examine the impacts of free shipping, quantity discount, transportation cost, and demand variance on the retailer's optimal order quantity and pricing decisions. We find that even though the retailer faces uncertain demand, free shipping can effectively encourage the retailer to order more of the good and can benefit the supplier, the retailer, and the end customers. An increase in transportation cost or a decrease in purchase price will induce the retailer to order more of the good and decrease the retail price. With increasing demand variance, the retailer should order more of the good. We also find that the newsvendor can cope with demand variance by taking advantage of free shipping.     

Short-term financing in a cash-constrained supply chain

In this paper we consider a two-level supply chain with a single retailer and a manufacturer, where both the firms are facing financial constraints and can not produce/order their optimal quantity. Our work shows that a lender who finances the manufacturer has a motivation to finance the retailer as well. Motivated by this, we investigate lender's problem of financing both the firms by making a joint decision on the loan amount and comparing it with the case when lender makes independent decision on loan amount for both the firms. Our numerical study indicates that if one of the firms in the supply chain has sufficiently low cash, joint decision (we refer to it as supply chain financing) may be better not only for the lender but for the retailer and manufacturer as well.