Expectations and intertemporal separability in an empirical model of consumption and investment under uncertainty

An intertemporal model of consumption and investment under uncertainty is formulated, and compared with the existing literature; it is argued that an assumption of myopia is necessary for its empirical applicability. It is estimated by maximum likelihood with quarterly British data. A specification search for a satisfactory form of expectations is made, and the estimated model is compared with a static demand system. Strong intertemporal separability is formulated as a nested hypothesis, and strongly rejected by a likelihood ratio test.     

An overlooked explanation of the declining saving rate

With a socioeconomic model of the determinants of savings that takes into account variables reflecting the abrupt changes in the divorce rate that occurred during the 1970s and the 1980s in the U.S., the increase in women's participation in the labour force, and their greater investrnent in education, we explain part of the measured decline in the saving rate. The uncertainty generated by the increased likelihood of divorces encourages households and women, in particular, to substitute human capital to financial or physical capital for precautionary savings.The authors thank Anna J. Schwartz and Pierre Perron for helpful suggestions and Anne-Marie El Hakim for her dedicated assistance on this project. The comments of the editor and of an anonymous referee contributed to improve the final version of the paper. The project was financed, in part, by a grant of the Quebec FCAR Fund.     

On latitude and affluence: The equatorial grand canyon

Our objective is to explain per capita GDPs by the countries' latitude, using PPP-based data for 138 countries in 1985 (PPP = purchasing power parity). A simple approach is formulated which nevertheless accounts for as much as two-thirds of the variance of the per capita GDPs.Theil is the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Scholar Emeritus and Courtesy Professor of Food and Resource Economics, while Galvez is an Associate in Research of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, both at the University of Florida (UF). We thank Sri Devi Deepak, Charles B. Moss and James L. Seale of the UF Food and Resource Economics Department for helpful discussions and Robert Summers of the University of Pennsylvania for making the data available to us.     

Testing for capital mobility: A random coefficients approach

This paper extends the Feldstein-Horioka (1980), Feldstein (1983) and subsequent studies on the degree of capital mobility, by adopting a random coefficients model. This approach is more general in that it permits inter-country variations in the degree of capital mobility to arise due to the differences in size as well as in other institutional or structural characteristics. In addition, it is a refinement of stochastic laws as defined by Pratt and Schlaifer (1984, 1988). Our results point to significant inter-country differences in the degree of capital mobility, thereby lending support to the random coefficients approach. In particular, our results indicate that, on average, the degree of capital mobility is much higher than implied by fixed coefficients approach. Finally, country size itself does not appear to bear a systematic relationship with the degree of capital mobility as suggested by Murphy (1984).We are grateful to two anonymous referees, and Baldev Raj, Editor of the journal for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveat applies.     

Small firms in Portugal: a selective survey of stylized facts,economic analysis,and policy implications

I survey a number of stylized facts pertaining to the dynamics of firm entry, growth, and exit in competitive industries. I focus particularly on data for Portugal, although I also consider, for comparison purposes, data from other countries. I then present a series of theoretical models that attempt to explain the stylized facts and evaluate the welfare impact of market distortions. Finally, I derive a number of policy implications, all centered around the notion of economic mobility.

Fixed effects with interpersonal and intertemporal covariance

The paper considers the estimation of a fixed effects time series-cross section model where errors have both unspecified interpersonal and intertemporal covariance. Efficient estimators in the form of GLS are suggested, which can be implemented on the data in their actual form or in deviations from time-means. As an empirical example, the determinants of new residential construction activity in the New England states of the US during the 80's are investigated. Results show substantial sensitivity to changes in the interest rate and the unemployment rate, whilst responses to changes in income are more muted. Long term factors related to the region are also influential.     

Measuring environmental efficiency of industry: a case study of thermal power generation in India

Technical and environmental efficiency of some coal-fired thermal power plants in India is estimated using a methodology that accounts for firm’s efforts to increase the production of good output and reduce pollution with the given resources and technology. The methodology used is directional output distance function. Estimates of firm-specific shadow prices of pollutants (bad outputs), and elasticity of substitution between good and bad outputs are also obtained. The technical and environmental inefficiency of a representative firm is estimated as 0.06 implying that the thermal power generating industry in Andhra Pradesh state of India could increase production of electricity by 6/ while decreasing generation of pollution by 6%. This result shows that there are incentives or win–win opportunities for the firms to voluntarily comply with the environmental regulation. It is found that there is a significant variation in marginal cost of pollution abatement or shadow prices of bad outputs across the firms and an increasing marginal cost of pollution abatement with respect to pollution reduction by the firms. This result calls for the use of economic instruments like pollution taxes instead of command and control regulation used currently in India to reduce air pollution.

The impact of the Paasche-Laspeyres choice upon econometric results

Does it make any difference to econometric results whether ones uses the Laspeyres or Paasche index? In general, the divergence between these two is small, suggesting that index choice makes little difference to econometric results. We estimate 72 Malthusian models and because the Paasche and Laspeyres indices we use show below average divergence, these reslts should be conservative. We find that parameters differ substantially, that parameter signs can be reversed, thatr ²s change markedly and that hypothesis test results are reversed. These findings indicate the importance of estimating exact indices.     

Public capital stock and state productivity growth: Further evidence from an error components model

The contribution of different types of public infrastructure on private production is investigated using time-series of cross-section data for the 48 contiguous states over the period 1970–1986. A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated with unobserved state-specific effects. Measurement errors in public capital stock and its components are detected and rectified.We would like to thank Baldev Raj and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Also, Timothy J. Gronberg and Kay McAllister who thoroughly read the earlier draft and offered many constructive suggestions. We are, however, solely responsible for any remaining errors. The data set used in this research was generously provided by Alicia H. Munnell and Leah Cook of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Nat Pinnoi acknowledges the research support provided by the Texas Transportation Institute.     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Labor market assimilation of immigrants in Spain: employment at the expense of bad job-matches?

During the last decade, Spain has experienced an unprecedented increase of immigration from three localized areas: Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Using data from the Labour Force Survey for the period 1996–2006, we study the labour characteristics of recent immigrants, identifying the major differences with the native population at arrival and tracking whether these differences fade away as their years of residence in Spain increase. We allow the returns to human capital and the sensitivity to the business cycle to differ between immigrants and natives. Overall, our results show that, compared to natives, immigrants face initially higher participation and unemployment rates, as well as higher incidence of overeducation and temporary contracts. However, 5 years after arrival immigrants’ participation rates start to converge to natives’ rates, unemployment rates decrease to levels even lower than those of natives, and the incidence of overeducation and temporary contracts remains roughly constant: no reduction of the gap with Spanish workers is observed. We are grateful to Christian Dustmann, Juan F. Jimeno, Claudio Michelacci, an anonymous referee, and seminar participants at the 2006 EALE Conference, 2006 Simposio de Análisis Económico, BBVA Economic Research Department, FEDEA, CReAM, INSIDE and LECG for helpful comments and suggestions.