Forecasting China's Monthly Inbound Travel Demand

Summary

China is currently expecting a growth in inbound travel demand as the result of China's “open door policy,” participation in World Trade Organization (WTO), success in hosting the Olympics in Beijing in the year 2008 and political stability. This paper focused on two issues: (1) forecasting China's monthly inbound travel demand and (2) seasonally and seasonal ARIMA model selection for monthly tourism time-series. In this paper following seasonal ARIMA models were considered: the seasonal ARIMA model with first differences and 11 seasonal dummy variables, the conventional seasonal ARIMA model with first and the fourth differences. In order to select the best forecasting model, finally both seasonal ARIMA models were compared with the AR model with fourth differences, the basic structural model (BSM) and the naive “No Change” model. In the one-step ahead forecasting comparison, the conventional seasonal ARIMA model with first and the fourth differences becomes the best forecasting model for both inbound foreign visitor demand and total visitor demand. This may be due to the nature of monthly seasonal variations in visitor arrivals, which is less marked. Our forecasts indicate that China foreign visitor arrivals and total visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 14% and 27% respectively from 2002 to 2005.     

The Situational Influence of Travel Group Composition

Abstract

A substantial amount of statistics and articles in travel magazines indicated that family vacation travel is one of the major worldwide trends. However, very limited empirical research has been dedicated to this special market segment. This study examined Japanese family travelers to Taiwan by comparing and contrasting them with other travel companionship groups including traveling with friends and traveling alone. The importance of travel group composition segmentation was explained and conceptualized through the understanding of the value of social groups from sociology perspective. The results indicated that Japanese family travelers exhibited unique characteristics when traveling. Family travelers tended to be more motivated by learning oriented themes and participated enthusiastically in activities that facilitated experiential learning as well as total physical relaxation. The “traveling with friends” and “traveling solo” segments tended to be seeking more of activities that had strong entertaining and socializing undertones. The traveling solo group appeared to be the most evasive or the least understood in what their needs and preferences were. Marketing implications were discussed.     

Segmentation and the Senior Traveler: Implications for Today's and Tomorrow's Aging Consume

Abstract

When one combines their greater economic well-being with their escalating numbers, more independent living, and better overall health, aging consumers constitute a very attractive market for the travel and tourism industry. This paper examines key factors that impact the consumption decision-making, attitudes, and behavior of the mature consumer, with particular attention to the service sector of travel. It presents a review of relevant segmentation studies and recommends specific, additional variables to increase the predictive and explanatory power of models intended to segment current and future senior travelers. Finally, it discusses implications of the segmentation process for effective strategy formulation.     

Visiting probability model: a new method for tourist volume forecasting

ABSTRACT

Tourist volume forecasting is an ongoing theme in tourism research. Current methods rely too much on the previous tourist arrivals data. Based on tourism system perspective, we propose a visiting probability model composed of five independent variables: the attractiveness of a destination, the travel time from a origin to the destination, the traffic expense to and from the destination, the physical fatigue travel time and the per capita disposable monthly income of the origin. The model provides a new method for forecasting the number of tourists from a specific origin without historical tourist arrivals data.     

中国和印度入境旅游发展比较

印度是亚太地区旅游业发展最快的国家之一.本文对中国大陆和印度近年来入境旅游的发展水平进行比较研究,重点从两国的旅游基础设施状况、入境旅游宣传和干扰入境旅游的异常因素等方面进行分析,提出应该重视印度入境旅游发展趋势、借鉴印度经验改进中国旅游国际市场营销策略、加强两国旅游业交流与合作等一系列建议,以应对印度入境旅游快速发展的局面.     

Grouping tourist complaints: what are inbound visitors’ problems with Chinese destinations?

This study aims to examine inbound tourists’ complaints when visiting China and how these complaints differ in terms of tourist demographics. Tourists’ spontaneous reviews on TripAdvisor were analysed through manual coding and online automated software. Seven categories of complaint attributes with seventy-eight specific items were identified. The results showed different relationships between tourists’ demographic characteristics (age, gender, origins and travel pattern) and complaint items. The theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed with regard to Chinese tourism management as well as future research.     

Road Travelers' Motivations and Loyalty: Train Versus Bus Services

ABSTRACT

Railroad and highway travel may differ not only in terms of their nature but also in terms of their appeal to travelers. Travelers may have different motivations to use either transportation mode in either inbound or outbound directions. Travelers may also demand different services or service traits of the provider in order to gain satisfaction in the short-term and/or become loyal customers in the long-term. This study uses a 2?×?2 design to compare train and a bus service between two cities 250 km apart in a country where these two means of transportation are equally essential. The study also compares the outbound and inbound routes in order to acknowledge additional differences in both the travelers' motivations and the customers' loyalty formation. The results show that travelers' motivations for choosing train or bus transportation differ based on whether they are leaving from or returning to the city that was the original point of departure. They also show that customers' long-term relationships with the provider significantly differ according to means of transportation and routes used. Characteristically, customers in the studied sample prefer train transport to leave and bus to return based on their idiosyncratic motivations of seeking value or money savings and their expectations of mutual loyalty. This research suggests practical consequences both for understanding travelers' motivations and customer loyalty formation and for managing policies regarding train and bus services competing for specific segments of travelers.     

Industrial Heritage Attractions: Types and Tourists

Abstract

Heritage tourism has become an important sector in the tourism industry. In fact, interest in heritage tourism among the American public increased 16% from 1991 to 1995. In spite of this surge in demand for heritage tourism little is known about tourists' visitation to “types” of heritage attractions and if their travel behavior characteristics are related to their patterns of visitation. This study examined both issues in the context of industrial heritage tourism. The results indicated that tourists were visiting “types” of industrial heritage attractions. In addition, there was a relationship between the type of trip they were on, the number of people in their travel party, when they made their decision to visit, and the total number of trips they had taken in the last 12 months and the “type” of industrial heritage attraction they visited.     

De‐exoticizing Tourist Travel: Everyday Life and Sociality on the Move

Abstract

Tourism is traditionally treated as an escape from everyday life and tourism theory is concerned with extraordinary places. Tourism and everyday life are conceptualized as belonging to different ontological worlds. The former is the world of the extraordinary while the latter is one of the ordinary. This interdisciplinary review article argues that this separation is flawed by examining research that shows how leisure travel, tourism and everyday life intersect in complex ways. It begins with a conceptual discussion of the everyday, which works as the theoretical foundation for the article. Then the article outlines how everyday routines and conventions inform tourism performances: much traditional tourism revolves around socializing pleasantly with one’s co‐travelling family and friends, while more and more tourism concerns visiting friends and family members living elsewhere. The conclusion discusses what consequences an everyday life perspective has for future tourism research.     

Effectiveness of the hotel websites in Singapore: A perspective from Business‐to‐Business (B2B) organisations

Internet marketing in hotels allows potential users to learn about the hotels, to tour hotel facilities and to compare prices among other benefits without directly interacting with a hotel representative. For some users, Internet is the first and only channel consulted when booking hotel accommodations. In the present age, Internet is increasingly becoming both an opportunity and a challenge for hotel marketers. The opportunity lies in reaching users directly through Internet sites. The challenge is to get the guests’ attention long enough to tell the marketers’ story (Connolly, Olsen and Moore, 1998). It has always been controversial as to how effective Internet marketing can be. Both firms and researchers have indicated that the measuring of effectiveness of Internet marketing is a multidimensional question. This study sought to examine the effectiveness of business‐to‐business Internet marketing in the hotel industry in Singapore through analysing the differences between the travel agents expectations of service and hotels’ understanding of those expectations. A total of 66 hotel websites in Singapore were scanned to give the features analysis. On the basis of the perception scores of 112 inbound travel agents, the study identified the gaps between the users and the website provider (hotel industry).     

Migrants and their overseas travels: A psychographic segmentation of Australia's Vietnamese community

This study profiled the travel patterns of Australia's Vietnamese community, with particular reference to travel back to Vietnam. Using a variety of analytical techniques including analysis of variance, factor analysis and regression analysis, the study identified four discrete psychographic groups. These were the ‘home‐sick,’ the ‘suspicious,’ the ‘culture seekers’ and the ‘price sensitive.’ Major contrasts were evident between the various segments. The ‘home‐sick’ appeared to be experiencing difficulties in adapting to their adopted country. In the case of the segment referred to as the ‘suspicious’ we cannot assume that they were experiencing more actual difficulties, but they expressed greater reluctance to consider return trips to their former homeland. The ‘culture seekers’ and ‘price sensitives’ exhibited more of the characteristics of regular leisure travellers and their travel attitudes were less obviously distinguishable as migrant attitudes. The study concluded that psychographic analyzes can lead to a better understanding of the travel behavior and attitudes of migrants and may assist destinations such as Vietnam to target the visiting friends and relatives market more effectively.     

Information search behavior of Hong Kong's inbound travelers‐a comparison of business and leisure travelers

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the information search behavior of Hong Kong's inbound tourists, in particular business and leisure travelers. The study clearly shows that business and leisure travelers demonstrate different information search behavior. ‘Personal experience,’ ‘Travel agency/tour company,’ ‘Airlines’ and the ‘Internet’ are most frequently relied upon by business travelers in searching for travel information, while leisure travelers prefer ‘Travel agency/tour company,’ ‘Friends or relatives,’ ‘Travel guide books,’ and ‘Personal experience.’ The study also reveals that the total number of information sources used and the length of pre‐trip planning lead‐time are significantly different between these two groups of travelers. First time travelers also have a longer pre‐trip planning lead‐time than repeat travelers. Furthermore, business and leisure travelers perceive the levels of influence of several information sources, including ‘Corporate travel departments,’ ‘Friends or relatives,’ ‘Travel guide books,’ and the ‘Internet,’ differently. These information sources were classified into five different dimensions, including ‘Media,’ ‘Neutral,’ ‘Retail,’ ‘Interpersonal,’ and ‘Personal experience.’ Analysis based on travelers' purpose for traveling and demographic information was performed. Leisure travelers perceive the level of influence of ‘Neutral’ sources as significantly higher, and those with lower household incomes perceived the level of influence of ‘Personal experience’ as lower. The results of this study will allow marketers in Hong Kong to better understand travelers’ information search behavior so that they can more effectively tailor their marketing strategies to these two major markets.     

国外探亲访友旅游研究综述

探亲访友旅游是旅游业一个非常重要但常常被忽视的细分市场,但是近年来成为西方学术界一个新的研究焦点.文章在对国外有关探亲访友旅游的研究文献进行评述的基础上,重点分析了探亲访友旅游市场的规模、旅行特征、异质性、对目的地的经济影响以及营销策略,探讨了未来进一步研究的方向,指出了对中国研究的启示.     

THE TAIPEI MRT (MASS RAPID TRANSIT) TOURISM ATTRACTION ANALYSIS FROM THE INBOUND TOURISTS' PERSPECTIVES

Of all cities in Taiwan, Taipei is fully internationalized and best‐equipped with a completed metro public transit system. Taipei MRT Company is trying to increase the number of inbound tourists by providing a better travel experience and design different marketing strategies to increase better MRT tourism attraction. The study purposes are to investigate inbound tourists' considerations for choosing public means of transportation during their travel in Taipei City, conduct the tourism attraction analysis of Taipei MRT system from the perspectives of inbound tourists, and identify how inbound tourists' traveling behavior influence their perceptions of Taipei MRT tourism attractions. The study sampled 312 inbound tourists in August and September of 2006 by using a closed‐ended questionnaire. Factor analysis revealed five factors that can be attractive to inbound tourists: holistic, service, information, tourism image, and location attraction. The study result also indicated that inbound tourists with different socio‐economic characteristics, traveling behaviors, and different MRT experience have statistically different perceptions of Taipei MRT Tourism attractions.     

Travel Agents and Their Survival Thomas

Abstract

The travel agency industry depends upon commissions for a majority of its revenue. When these commissions decrease or stop the industry must change the means in which revenue is made. The Internet has caused a significant reduction in airline ticket sales and therefore has caused travel agencies to change. In addition travel agencies have reduced commissions paid to airlines thus causing more changes. There were four categories of travel agencies discussed in the article along with their adaptation styles. These types include (1) the independent operator of a small travel agency with very limited resources (2) the normal agency with 2 or 3 agents which does a substantial business (3) the larger agency that is high-tech and high touch and depends on automation and the Web to some extent (innovators) (4) agencies that are Web based with very little automation otherwise and who were technologically adaptable and saw opportunity in the Web. The study examines how agencies have adapted and prospered through this transitional period.     

Buyer Decision-Making Behavior in International Tourism Channels

Summary

Despite the development and maintenance of effective channel relationships in international tourism markets being critical to a firm's success, little research has been undertaken in business-to-business relationships in cross-national markets (March 1997a; Crotts, Aziz & Raschid 1998). This research paper offers insights into the decision-making behavior of a critical intermediary in international tourism channels, the inbound tour operator (ITO). In an exploratory study, the purchasing attitudes of ITOs, in their functions as purchasers of tourism products on behalf of overseas clients, are examined. Respondents were asked to assess the importance of a number of supplier attributes for three types of tourism products: hotels, coach companies and restaurants. Twenty-six inbound tour operators specialising in the Asian or Japanese inbound markets into Australia were surveyed; though small in number these firms handled over 800,000 visitors to Australia in 1998 (including 82% of the entire Japanese market). The results from a 43-item questionnaire, designed after preliminary discussions with ITOs, reveal differences between the attitudes of Japanese-market and Asian-market ITOs in their purchase decision-making behavior and in buyer attitudes toward different product types. The findings offer useful lessons for suppliers in the management of their relationships with inbound tour operators.     

The Senior Travel Market

Abstract

Demographically, the senior market segment is the fastest growing travel segment in the United States. While existing as one of the most influential groups of leisure travelers, they are often forgotten in the world of hotel marketing, advertising, and overall design of the hotel itself. This study examined the “Do's & Don'ts” of the senior market, as well as the importance seniors hold on service attributes, hotel layout, and building design. Findings are derived from literature reviews and observations. In addition, personal interviews were conducted to compare what hotel employees thought was an important need to the seniors in contrast to what the senior travelers thought was. Recommendations were made to assist hotel companies in attracting the senior market ranging from lifestyle advertising to building guestrooms with particular amenities.     

Inbound Travelers' Selection Criteria for Hotel Spas in Hong Kong

With a growing number of travelers enjoying spa experiences, it is vital that hotels understand their preferences. As Hong Kong has a high visitor inflow and is in the preliminary stages of hotel spa development, an examination of the selection criteria used by inbound travelers when choosing hotel spas should provide Hong Kong hoteliers with the information needed to further develop and refine their facilities. This study examines the selection criteria that inbound travelers use to gain insight into how demographic factors and travel characteristics affect their spa-related decisions. A measuring instrument was developed based on in-depth interviews of spa industry professionals and secondary data. The results reveal that relaxation, pampering, and beautification were the main reasons that people visited hotel spas; with the three most important major selection dimensions being therapists, price, and product and treatment types. Of the 28 selection criteria studied, professional skills, product and service knowledge, sense of privacy, range of facilities, and product branding were the most important attributes. The implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed here.     

The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis

Although China has progressively become an important inbound tourism market for Australia, its demand elasticities have been little studied to date. This study examines the determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia using a dynamic time-series estimator. Interesting findings include a high income elasticity as a source of the continuous doubledigit growth rates in Chinese arrivals that Australia has experienced over the past two decades, together with relatively high total trip price elasticities for both short run and long run. A trend of Chinese outbound to Australia is also identified. From a policy perspective, the results confirm that keeping a low cost of visiting Australia, both ground and travel costs, is a good strategy to secure greater numbers of Chinese tourists.     

Service Quality and Customers' Willingness to Pay More for Travel Services

Abstract

Increasingly sophisticated and price conscious consumers have combined with forces of globalisation and electronic commerce to create new challenges for travel agents. To maintain efficiency and profitability, travel agents need to know the links between service quality and customers' willingness to pay more (WTPM). These links are explored through measuring customer perceptions (N = 122) of service quality, loyalty and WTPM. The results revealed firstly that while many consumers were able to pay more for travel services, fewer were willing to do so. Secondly, overall service quality and its underlying dimensions were positively associated with selected WTPM items. These findings support and extend previous studies on the service quality-behavioural intentions link and provide practical implications for the travel industry in relation to a differentiated price and service strategy.