保险资金投资管理中的风险分散问题研究

组合投资是利用投资组合内各个风险资产之间的相关性来分散风险的,而均值—方差投资组合模型采用的相关性度量—相关系数无法准确地度量风险资产之间的相关性,这必将对组合投资的风险分散效果产生不利影响。本文提出,用理论性质更好的相关性度量来度量风险资产之间的相关性,并建立基于Kendallτ的投资组合模型。通过实证研究发现,在保险资金投资管理中,采用基于Kendallτ的投资组合模型能够取得比均值—方差投资组合模型更好的风险分散效果。     

Venture capital in transition: A Monte-Carlo simulation of changes in investment patterns

This article examines the nature of the investment process which has historically generated high returns for venture capital funds, and the impact on fund returns of perceived changes in management practice and the structure of the industry. The article outlines some policy implications for fund managers, investors, and the general management of corporations.The authors have investigated the investment process and the changes in the nature of the process through the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation model. Information gathered from interviews with fund managers and the available published data on venture fund performance (including proprietary surveys) was used to develop and calibrate the model. The model replicates the relatively high average fund returns and distribution of returns for funds through the early 1980s. The model simulates a multistaged investment process which draws on a pool of investment opportunities which have a log normal distribution of returns and a low (zero) average return. The model readily permits the exploration of the impact of management and industry practices on fund returns.The conditions identified by the authors, which led to high rates of return on the part of venture capital funds, include:

• 1.1) multistaged investment or commitment of funds on an incremental basis with evaluation of venture performance before commitment of additional fund;
• 2.2) objective evaluation of venture performance with the clear distinguishing of winners from losers;
• 3.3) parlaying funds or having the confidence to commit further funds to ventures identified as winners;
• 4.4) persistence of returns from one round to the next, which implies that valuable information is gained from previous rounds of investment in the same venture;
• 5.5) long-term holding of investment portfolios for a period sufficient for geometric averaging of compound returns to cause the winners to “take over” or raise portfolio returns.

Taken together, these conditions have permitted venture capital funds to historically realize strong average returns with a few of them realizing extraordinary returns.The article also explores the consequences of what some believe is happening in the industry: a trend toward holding investments for shorter periods, increased competition both for investments and later in the product-market arena, and a growing lack of loyalty between investors and investees. All of these conditions and their indirect consequences were shown by the model to negatively impact the limited partners in the venture capital funds while general partners, given the structure of fees and the distribution of investment returns, generally realized a reasonable to extraordinary return. The article outlines a number of management and investment policy implications for investors and fund managers.     

Does venture capitalist activism improve investment performance?

We investigate whether venture capitalist (VC) activism is associated with higher investment returns. Advising portfolio firms is time consuming and creates tradeoffs between intensity of VC activism and portfolio size. As the number of assisted firms expands, advice can be stretched too thin, reducing portfolio company prospects. We test the hypothesis that increasing the number of investments while intensely assisting portfolio companies is negatively associated with investment returns (the profit destruction effect). We find that aggressive VC activism does predict higher investment returns, but the profit destruction effect operates as well. Portfolio size growth thus risks overextending scarce VC resources and lowering returns.     

RISK‐AVERSION,OPTIMAL LEVERAGE AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATION

We develop a partial equilibrium dynamic model in which firms are risk‐averse. We analyse the determinants of the investment–uncertainty relationship by means of numerical techniques. When firms can borrow ‘outside’ resources at the riskless rate, an increase in price volatility depresses investment for realistic parameter values. In our model, portfolio considerations play an important role. When the marginal revenue of capital becomes more uncertain, the risk‐averse firm's owners reduce their ‘short position’ in the risk‐free asset, thus diminishing the firm's debt level. The contraction in leverage reduces the expected returns on investment because the expected marginal revenue product is higher than the user cost of capital. In turn, the reduction in expected yields tends to depress investment.     

Asymmetric Correlations in Predicting Portfolio Returns*

Rigorous statistical tests have been designed to detect the existence of asymmetric correlations. However, these tests can hardly further facilitate future investment or risk management because asymmetric correlations are time‐varying and difficult to predict. In this paper, we construct a unified state‐space model, which not only measures in‐sample asymmetric correlations, but also exploit out‐of‐sample asymmetric correlations in the context of predicting portfolio returns. First, we regard time‐varying correlation between market returns and portfolio returns as a state variable and model it as an AR(1) process. Then, we measure future asymmetric correlations based on correlation coefficients between two unpredictable components in market returns and correlation, respectively. Third, we clarify the intuition, calculate asymmetric correlations for two portfolio sets and estimate the economic value of applying our model in asset allocation. Finally, we try to search for potential variables that can explain future asymmetric correlations. The results show that market‐wide liquidity, variance, earning price ratio, and investor sentiment can partially explain the asymmetry correlation phenomenon.     

Book Reviews

In a world of limited resources, marketing managers tasked to deliver shareholder value face decisions about how to maximise the returns on their marketing portfolio. Risk is less often considered. In finance the picture is very different; financial portfolio management is concerned with both risk and returns. The central innovation in this paper is the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT) to the management of marketing portfolios in food retailing and in drinks manufacturing. The authors develop a model that calculates an efficient frontier of marketing portfolios that maximise overall return within certain risk constraints, first for a simple two-segment marketing world and then for a more realistic multi-segment portfolio. However, marketing portfolios differ from financial ones in the sense that the allocation of marketing spend affects the returns from the portfolio. Therefore, a second innovation, an extension of MPT to take account of marketing spend allocation decisions, has been developed. Using this model, marketers can determine the risk and the returns of marketing investments, helping them select an optimal portfolio. This would go some way to ensuring that marketing contributes to shareholder value creation, currently one of its major challenges.     

Managing the retail format portfolio: An application of modern portfolio theory

We apply modern financial portfolio theory (MPT) to managing portfolios of retail formats. The objective of MPT is to maximize overall portfolio return for a given level of portfolio risk. We applied MPT to three prominent hotel firms to determine the ideal mix of formats in their hotel brand portfolios, using revenue per available room (RevPAR) as a proxy for return on investment. We found that all three firms could improve their returns and reduce their risk by reallocating the number of hotel rooms (i.e., scarce resources) across their different retail formats.     

Investment Decisions for Retirement Savings

We conducted a choice experiment to investigate whether retirement savers follow simple portfolio theory when choosing investments. We modeled experimental survey data on 693 participants using a scale-adjusted version of the latent class choice model. Results show that underlying variability in response was explained by age and “risk profile” score and that preferences varied with income and age. Younger individuals were conventionally risk averse, but older, higher-income individuals may react positively to both higher returns and increasing risk, when risk is presented as widening ranges of possible outcomes. Respondents tended to choose among a few similar investment options.     

The investment nature of income trusts and their role in diversified portfolios

We examine the investment characteristics of income trusts to explore their role within a portfolio as well as to clarify the on‐going political debate surrounding income trusts. Results show that income trusts exhibited risk‐adjusted performance that far outperformed equities and bonds during our sample period. We adopt a multifactor return generating process for ex‐post income trust returns to quantify the degree to which they are influenced by bond‐ and stock‐related effects. The relationship between trust returns and bond returns is very weak, whereas the relationship between trust returns and stock returns is quite strong. We conclude that while income trusts appear indistinct from equities as an asset class, they significantly expand the efficient set. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overconfidence Mediates How Perception of past Portfolio Returns Affects Investment Behaviors

Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.     

Value investing in emerging markets: risks and benefits

This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of ‘value’ emerging markets generates superior returns; and (2) statistical measures of its risk are close to the corresponding measures for the portfolio of all emerging markets. The statistical significance of these results has been checked by a bootstrap procedure. The results imply that the optimal share of emerging markets increases from 0% for an equally weighted portfolio to approximately 25% for the portfolio of undervalued emerging markets.     

On Risk and Return in Asia-Pacific Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates the recent performance of stocks of major industry groups in the Asia-Pacific region. The objective of the study is to guide international investors who are exploring the possibility of investing in this region but are unsure of which specific industries to invest in. Risk-adjusted stock returns (expressed in U.S. dollars) are calculated for each industry group and sub-group in the region. Based on stock performance, recommendations are made for inclusion of specific industries in an Asia-Pacific investment portfolio.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America in the 1990s

Summary

FDI in Latin America has witnessed a resurgence in the 1990s after the debt crisis and capital drought of the 1980s. This inflow results both from more market-friendly policies in the recipient countries and lower returns and growth in developed nations. The latter factor has also attracted many short-term, portfolio instruments to the continent which can be highly damaging to local economies when not properly regulated. Privatization has been among the more important country-specific variables attracting direct investors to the region. Despite the positive effects of FDI, Latin American countries are still beset with problems such as unequal distribution of income and poverty that direct investment is unlikely to ameliorate.     

基于风险预算的新疆居民家庭金融资产的风险资产配置

通过对新疆2013-2017年的居民家庭金融总资产以及投资和储蓄的分析,从宏观的家庭金融资产视角使用Markowitz的投资组合的均值-方差模型在风算预算的基础上,进一步计算出实际新疆居民每年应当用于储蓄或者用于投资与固定风险和较大风险的比例,即得出风险资产的配置,从而提高新疆居民的储蓄向投资的转化,加强居民金融资产的管理和风险资产的分配,提高居民的风险收益,为新疆居民家庭获取更多金融资产投资于风险性收入提供更好的政策建议。     

Approaches to the Measurement and Management of Customer Value

SUMMARY

Determining and managing customer lifetime value is one of the most important strategic objectives of companies today. This paper critically examines some of the most popular approaches traditionally used to measure the value of customers in a company's portfolio. The methods reviewed include RFM and total revenue approaches to differentiating the value of customers. Although these methods have relative advantages, they have serious drawbacks that limit the ability of managers to accurately assess customer value. An alternative model for the measurement and management of customer value is proposed.     

The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets

The risk–return relationship is one of the fundamental concepts in finance that is most important to investors and portfolio managers. Finance theory argues that the beta or systematic risk is the only relevant risk measure for investors. However, many studies have showed that betas and returns are not related empirically, no matter in domestic markets or in international stock markets. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and returns in international stock markets for the period from January 1991 to December 2000. After recognizing the fact that while expected returns are always positive, realized returns could be positive or negative, we find a significant positive relationship between beta and returns in up market periods (positive market excess returns) but a significant negative relationship in down market periods (negative market excess returns). The results are robust for both monthly and weekly returns and for two different proxies of the world market portfolio. Our findings indicate that beta is still a useful risk measure for portfolio managers in making optimal investment decisions.     

Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional “fund of funds” investors

Institutional investors supply the bulk of the funds which are used by venture capital investment firms in financing emerging growth companies. These investors typically place their funds in a number of venture capital firms, thus achieving diversification across a range of investment philosophy, geography, management, industry, investment life cycle stage and type of security. Essentially, each institutional investor manages a “fund of funds,” attempting through the principles of portfolio theory to reduce the risk of participating in the venture capital business while retaining the up-side potential which was the original source of attraction to the business. Because most venture capital investment firms are privately held limited partnerships, it is very difficult to measure risk adjusted rates of return on these funds on a continuous basis.In this paper, we use the set of twelve publicly traded venture capital firms as a proxy to develop insight regarding the risk reduction effect of investment in a portfolio of venture capital funds, i.e., a fund of funds. Measurements of weekly total returns for the shares of these funds are compared with similar returns on a set of comparably sized “maximum capital gain” mutual funds and the daily return of the S&P 500 Index. A comparison of returns on an individual fund basis, as well as a correlation of daily returns of these individual funds, were made. In order to adjust for any systematic bias resulting from the “thin market” characteristic of the securities of the firms being observed, the Scholes-Williams beta estimation technique was used to reduce the effects of nonsynchronous trading.The results indicate that superior returns are realized on such portfolios when compared with portfolios of growth-oriented mutual funds and with the S&P 500 Index. This is the case whether the portfolios are equally weighted (i.e., “naive”) or constructed to be mean-variant efficient, ex ante, according to the capital asset pricing model. When compared individually, more of the venture funds dominated the S&P Market Index than did the mutual funds and by much larger margins. When combined in portfolios, the venture capital funds demonstrated very low beta coefficients and very low covariance of returns among portfolio components when compared with portfolios of mutual funds. To aid in interpreting these results, we analyzed the discounts and premia from net asset value on the funds involved and compared them to Thompson's findings regarding the contribution of such differences to abnormal returns. We found that observed excess returns greatly exceed the level which would be explained by these differences.The implications of these results for the practitioner are significant. They essentially tell us that, while investment in individual venture capital deals is considered to have high risk relative to potential return, combinations of deals (i.e., venture capital portfolios) were shown to produce superior risk adjusted returns in the market place. Further, these results show that further combining these portfolios into larger portfolios (i.e., “funds of funds”) provides even greater excess returns over the market index, thus plausibly explaining the “fund of funds” approach to venture capital investment taken by many institutional investors.While the funds studied are relatively small and are either small business investment companies or business development companies, they serve as a useful proxy for the organized venture capital industry, despite the fact that the bulk of the funds in the industry are institutionally funded, private, closely held limited partnerships which do not trade continuously in an open market. These results demonstrate to investors the magnitude of the differences in risk adjusted total return between publicly traded venture capital funds and growth oriented mutual funds on an individual fund basis. They also demonstrate to investors the power of the “fund of funds” approach to institutional involvement in the venture capital business. Because such an approach produces better risk adjusted investment results for the institutional investor, it seems to justify a greater flow of capital into the business from more risk averse institutional investment sources. This may mean greater access to institutional funds for those seeking to form new venture capital funds. For entrepreneurs seeking venture capital funds for their young companies, it may also mean a lower potential cost of capital for the financing of business venturing. From the viewpoint of public policy makers interested in facilitating the funding of business venturing, it may provide insight regarding regulatory issues surrounding taxation and the barriers and incentives which affect venture capital investment.     

From an aggregate to a brand network: a study of the brand portfolio at L'Oréal

Abstract

Our purpose is to contribute to the understanding of brand-portfolio management by examining the brand-portfolio strategies of a world-leading company. We started to work on a case study with L'Oréal. Our research focused on two questions: (1) what reasons lead L'Oréal to develop a brand-portfolio strategy?; (2) how can brand-portfolio management create a higher and stronger level of competitive advantage for this company? The results show that an aggregation of brands is not in itself a brand portfolio. The juxtaposition of brands is one of, but not the sole, element necessary for the development of a brand portfolio, which is a combination of a brand ensemble and key competences born out of organisational savoir-faire. By analysing the evolution of the L'Oréal brand portfolio, this work shows how the brand combination within a portfolio is a key factor for company development, growth, and risk management. It is a crucial phase to understand L'Oréal's competitive advantage.     

Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets: Prospects,Pitfalls and Policy Implications

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the pattern of debt and equity portfolio flows (FPI) to the developing countries in recent years and discusses some policy and operational measures to facilitate greater FPI flows. Our analysis suggests that many countries need to adopt more aggressive measures to attract foreign portfolio investment. The major areas where improvements can facilitate FPI are identified as: political and legal environment, private sector development, improvement in macro-economic management, development of capital markets, strengthening of financial institutions, enforcement of market regulations, improvements in market operations, and effective dissemination of market information.     

Option-implied betas and the cross section of stock returns

We investigate the cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and a number of measures of option-implied beta. Using portfolio analysis, we show that the method proposed by Buss and Vilkov (2012, The Review of Financial Studies, 2525, 3113–3140) leads to a stronger relationship between implied beta and stock returns than other approaches. However, using the Fama and MacBeth (1973, Journal of Political Economy, 8181, 607–636) cross-section regression methodology, we show that the relationship is not robust to the inclusion of other firm characteristics. We further show that a similar result holds for implied downside beta. We, therefore, conclude that there is no robust relation between option-implied beta and returns.