African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment

The author dissects, with great acuteness, the issues of convergence in financial performance dynamics in the African continent through the lenses of stock market capitalization, value traded, turnover, and number of listed companies. The empirical evidence is premised on 11 homogeneous panels based on regions (Sub-Saharan and North Africa), income levels (low, middle, lower-middle, and upper-middle), legal origins (English common law and French civil law), and religious dominations (Christianity and Islam). Findings provide partial support for the existence of absolute convergence in some dynamics. Only Sub-Saharan Africa reveals conditional convergence in relation to per capita number of listed companies. The speed of convergence for the most part is between 12% and 28% per annum. As a policy implication, countries should work toward adopting common institutional and structural characteristics that favor stock market development.     

农业与证券市场的发展

农业企业通过在证券市场发行股票和债券,能够迅速地把分散在社会上的闲散货币集中起来,形成巨额的、可供长期使用的资本,用于生产和经营,从而开辟了不同于间接融资（银行贷款）的直接融资渠道。证券市场还具有促使公司转换经营机制的功能。证券市场对农业经营主体有一定的要求,公司要成为上市公司,必须先改制成为股份公司,按照股份公司的机制来运作。农业企业要在证券市场发行证券,也要经过严格的审查程序,要有良好的业绩。     

The Emerging Securities Market in Russia

Abstract

This paper examines the motivations of foreign firms for investing in the Eastern and Central European countries, based on a synthesis of surveys of investors and on anecdotal observations. The findings of this examination are used as a framework within which policies towards FDI are formulated and evaluated. It suggests that the efforts of Eastern and Central European governments should be directed towards the improvement of the conditions which affect investment driven by market, export and efficiency seeking motivations. These are the areas in which the region seems to have large potential as host for FDI that has not fully materialized yet.     

How Have the Emerging Stock Exchanges in Africa Responded to Market Reforms?

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on how the stock markets in Africa have responded to the reform process. We identify three main types of reforms implemented in these markets since the 1990s, namely revitalization of the regulatory framework, modernization of trading systems, and relaxation of restrictions on foreign investors. We invoke market microstructure theory to hypothesize the expected response of the markets in terms of efficiency and volatility to the three types of reforms. Econometric methods are applied to test the hypotheses on a sample of ten stock exchanges, for the period 1988:01-1999:12. The evidence generally suggests that there are benefits of investments to improve market microstructure. For example, a comparative analysis across the sample demonstrates that markets with advanced trading technology, tight regulatory system and relaxed foreign investors' participation show greater efficiency and lower market volatility. Although direction of causality between efficiency and volatility varies across the markets, in general, we infer that reforms, which reduce volatility, reap higher efficiency. However, in some markets, the effects of the reforms are too recent to show any clear response pattern.     

Emerging Securities Exchanges in Africa

ABSTRACT

African securities markets have not received the academic attention of those in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Historically, capital markets have not played a significant role in financing the development of the African economy. Today, however, African governments are focusing on the importance of moving toward more market-oriented economies and developing the financial market infrastructure to mobilize funds from both the private and public sectors. This paper describes the institutional characteristics of a newly revitalized stock exchange in Nairobi, Kenya. The study concludes that historical and cultural factors play a significant role in the characteristics of the Nairobi Stock Exchange.     

证券市场与企业发展规律

只有从规律的层次上把握企业的发展变化,才能制定科学合理的经济发展政策,才能切实有效地推动企业的改革与发展。本文通过对企业250年发展演变过程的分析,提出了企业发展的四个规律,即资本社会化的规律、组织形式股份化的规律、管理专家化的规律和市场国际化的规律。文章认为证券市场是适应企业的发展规律而发展起来的,它的发展不仅是企业发展壮大的重要外部推动力量,而且这个外部推动力量会转化为推进企业经营机制转变的异己因素,可以将企业异化为以市场为导向的、以最大盈利为目标的、竞争性的、切实有效率的经济组织。     

Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?

The paper extends the evidence on factors determining stock prices on emerging markets by focusing on the most advanced stock market in Central and Eastern Europe, the Polish market. Besides market, size and value factors, we investigate whether liquidity is a priced risk factor, addressing the hypothesis of its particular relevance in emerging markets. Our results support existing evidence for developed markets regarding market, size, and value factors. Contrary to the expectation that liquidity is a priced factor on emerging markets, we do not find evidence supporting this hypothesis. Analyzing specific market characteristics, we consider possible explanations behind these findings.     

Sector level cost of equity in African financial markets

This paper assesses the effectiveness of Liu (2006) metrics in measuring illiquidity within a multifactor CAPM pricing model. Costs of equity are estimated using this model for the major sectors within Africa's larger equity markets: Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa. In all countries, the cost of equity is found to be highest in the financial sector and lowest in the blue chip stocks of Tunisia, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa. At an aggregate level, Nigeria and Zambia have the highest cost of capital.     

Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The study empirically assessed the relationship between stock market development and long-run economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2000. The study used secondary data while four models of multiple regressions were specified. The regression results, which were obtained using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS), show that measures of stock market development statistically have no significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1980 to 2000. The major implication of the findings is that if the Nigerian Stock Market is to significantly contribute to rapid economic growth, policies must be fashioned out to eliminate those factors that blur the effectiveness of the vehicle or transmission mechanism through which stock market activities influence economic growth.

Based on the findings, it was recommended that there should be an improvement in the attractiveness of the market as a major source of raising capital. This will entail improvement in the physical infrastructure, more efficient share transfer and delivering system and provision of adequate and timely information on the market. Also, there should be improvement in the institutional regulation, environment and legal framework such that a balance is maintained between the soundness and safety of the market. And finally, there is the need to internationalize the stock market to improve the flow of savings. This willgive the market the advantages of risk diversification, improve information flow and encourage corporate control through investment in equity.     

Exporters and Non-Exporters of Manufactured Products:

This article focuses on profiling some differences between exporters and non-exporters of manufactured products in a small developing country. One hundred and nineteen firms were interviewed. On the basis of multiple discriminant analysis results, the majority of the discriminators were characteristics internal to the firm and its management. One implication is that public policy makers can target firms with exporter profiles and attempt to stimulate them to export.     

Government Quality Determinants of Stock Market Performance in African Countries

How do government policies and institutions affect stock market performance? As stock markets grow broader and deeper in African countries, the question becomes more critical. Government quality dynamics of corruption control, government effectiveness, political stability or no violence, voice and accountability, regulation quality and rule of law are instrumented with income levels, religious dominations, press freedom degrees, and legal origins to account for stock market performance dynamics of capitalization, value traded, turnover and number of listed companies. The results demonstrate a significant positive association between stock market performance measures and the quality of government institutions. These findings suggest countries with better developed government institutions would favor stock markets with higher market capitalization, better turnover ratios, higher value in shares traded and greater number of listed companies.     

我国股市模仿投资行为的理论分析

行为金融理论是证券市场的最新理论,它运用社会学、心理学和经济学原理来研究股市的实际投资行为。本文运用行为金融理论对我国股市模仿投资行为进行了分析,认为我国股票市场是一个新兴股市,不论是机构投资者还是个人投资者都存在不同程度的模仿投资行为,在模仿投资行为形成过程中,信息传递机制起着重要作用,使我国股票价格经常出现异常波动甚至产生股市泡沫。文章提出,为遏制模仿投资行为,必须改善股票市场结构,完善市场机制,大力培养和发展机构投资者;加快股市相关制度创新,完善有关证券市场的法律法规;开展投资者教育,把理性投资者培养成市场主导力量;加大投资工具创新力度,增加投资品种。     

The fear of globalizing capital markets

It is generally accepted that free flow of goods benefits both economies without serious risks. The situation with the free flow of capital is different. Many policy makers and economists are skeptical not only about the benefits of free flow of capital, but also see uncontrolled capital flows as risky and destabilizing. Other economists, however, firmly believe that free capital flows will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and greater economic growth. Nevertheless, the debate has little empirical evidence to rely on. We hope to fill that gap in this paper. We study the benefits and risks associated with capital flows by examining the experience of emerging economies around the time that foreign investment in stock markets was allowed. We investigate the impact of capital flows on stock returns, stock market efficiency, inflation, and exchange rates. We also examine the effect on different kinds of volatility that might arise as a consequence of capital flows: volatility of stock returns, volatility of inflation rates, and volatility of exchange rates. We find no evidence of an increase in inflation or an appreciation of exchange rates. Stock returns reflect a lower cost of capital after liberalization. There is no increase in stock market volatility and the volatility of inflation and exchange rates actually decreases. Stock markets become more efficient as determined by testing the random walk hypothesis.     

Does FDI increase productivity? The role of regulation in upstream industries

In view of substantial changes having taken place in the regulatory environment and in the light of the increasing role of inter industry linkages, we examine whether the total factor productivity (TFP) growth impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined by regulation in upstream sectors. Econometric estimates illustrate that FDI exerts a positive impact on the growth of OECD industries which slows down as upstream regulation rises. To raise the reliability of our estimates, we use instruments for FDI and regulation that are as free as possible of endogenous association with TFP growth. Our instrumental variable estimates verify that the influence of FDI on TFP growth depends negatively on the level of upstream regulation. Non‐parametric estimates confirm that the highest impact of FDI takes place at the lowest levels of entry regulation and public ownership.     

Pricing of New Securities in an Incomplete Market: the Catch 22 of No-Arbitrage Pricing

There are two distinctly different approaches to the valuation of a new security in an incomplete market. The first approach takes the prices of the existing securities as fixed and uses no-arbitrage arguments to derive the set of equivalent martingale measures that are consistent with the initial prices of the traded securities. The price of the new security is then obtained by appealing to certain criteria or on the basis of some preference assumption. The second method prices the new security within a general equilibrium framework. This paper clarifies the distinction between the two approaches and provides a simple proof that the introduction of the new security will typically change the prices of all the existing securities. We are left with the paradox that a genuinely new derivative security is not redundant, but the dominant pricing paradigm in derivative security pricing is the no-arbitrage approach, which requires the redundancy of the security. Given the widespread practice of using the no-arbitrage approach to price (or bound the price of) a new security, we also comment on some justifications for this approach.     

股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率:基于股市信息效率视角的研究

中国股票市场发展已经经历20年的历程,很多方面都取得了巨大的发展成就,然而对于股票市场发展对中国经济增长是否产生了显著的正向促进作用,现有研究文献并没有达到一致结论.文章基于股价波动非同步性测度方法,从股票市场信息效率这一新的视角入手,实证检验股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率的因果影响关系,为这一领域研究提供了新的实证证据.实证结果表明:中国股票市场信息效率与国家资源配置效率显著正相关,且这种正相关关系在效益上升行业与下降行业没有显著差别,即高信息效率股票市场能引导社会在高资本回报率的行业内继续追加投资,在低资本回报率的行业内及时削减资本投入,从而提高资源配置效率.因此中国股票市场发展具有较好的经济效应,它对经济增长产生了显著正向促进作用.     

温和加息不是股市利空

通常认为,加息会对股票投资产生极为不利的影响。但是,通过对美国和中国的历史数据的实证分析发现,利率高低对股市涨跌没有明显的影响。这样的结果与流行的结论不太一致,为此,通过深入分析后发现,利率变动时公司盈利的起点不同以及利率变动后长短期资产收益变动的不一致性是出现这种现象的重要原因。     

The Price of Risk on the African Frontier Stock Markets

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and the Fama-French and Carhart models have been widely applied in the developed and most emerging markets; however, there is scant evidence of the viability of the models on the African Frontier Stock Markets (AFSMs). This study examines the viability of the models for a sample that pools securities across nine AFSMs, and whether or not the risk factors of these models command risk premium on the AFSMs. The paper provides evidence of the existence of the size, value and momentum effects on the AFSMs. In addition, the models only partly capture the returns to size and book-to-market sorted portfolios on the AFSMs. Also, the risk factors of these models generally, command marginally significant premium on the AFSMs. Caution should in general be exercised when applying these models on the AFSMs.     

The Role of Financial Ratios in the Variance of Stock Trading Volume in Emerging Stock Markets

The study used quarterly panel data of 6 years from 2010 to 2015 of all companies listed on both Vietnamese stock markets including the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange, and on three leading industries consisting of insurance-banking, foodstuff, and real estate to explore the relationship among four key financial ratios and stock trading volume. Two models, fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM), with robust standard errors, were applied for this study. The key findings showed that earnings before tax on sales, debt on owner’s equity, and owner’s equity on total assets significantly influenced trading volume.     

Analysis of Domestic Factors Affecting Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil

Developing markets have increasingly gained prominence in the world economy, but the domestic factors behind this success are not well established. This uncertainty may interfere with multinational expansion plans. In this article, we examine several macroeconomic and institutional factors affecting Brazilian outward foreign direct investment in 17 destination countries. We applied a pooled ordinary least squares regression over the 2001–2014 period. The findings suggest that macroeconomic factors are still statistically significant to explain investment abroad, but several institutional factors such as corruption have emerged, having a negative effect and political violence having a positive effect on Brazilian outward foreign direct investment.