我国在铁矿石贸易谈判丧失“话语权”原因和对策

我国是国际铁矿石的需求和进口大国,可以说是市场需方的一个大寡头,但是在每次的国际铁矿石贸易价格谈判中处于几乎"失语"的尴尬处境。本文分析了其原因并为改善这种不利处境为我国钢铁企业提供参考对策。     

Emerging Powers in WTO Negotiations: The Domestic Sources of Trade Policy Preferences

In the current round of multilateral trade liberalization, emerging powers such as Brazil and India created the G-20 coalition and refused to accept further tariff rate reductions for industrial products before the United States and the European Union made reciprocal concessions in agriculture. This article examines how and why Brazil and India have taken a more offensive and proactive position at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Following Putnam's two-level games approach, I focus on domestic factors and specifically on interest groups to explain actors' policy preferences in WTO negotiations. From a theoretical perspective, the case studies Brazil and India lend credit to the literature discussing the impact of powerful, sector-specific interest groups on governments' trade policy preferences. From an empirical perspective, the findings show how these two countries translated these demands into government positions and influenced WTO outcomes as agenda-setters and coalition builders.     

越南对外贸易现状的实证研究——兼论一体化对越南贸易的影响

1993年开始越南对外贸易发展迅速,但也存在一些问题,如贸易连年逆差、市场过于集中以及出口商品层次低等。越南是东盟和亚太经合组织成员,这两个国际经济组织也在一定程度上促进了越南对外贸易的发展,但是其影响力发生了不同的变化。     

内外贸一体化中的对外贸易政策调整

由美国次级贷款问题引发的愈演愈烈的全球金融危机,将使中国经济发展面临国际市场需求紧缩和国内需求市场疲软的双重压力。从中长期来看,积极推进内外贸一体化发展,是缓解内外压力,保持经济持续较快发展的重要途径之一。为此,必须深入研究内外贸一体化的客观经济机制,促进国内外贸易政策的协调。     

The Domestic Sources of Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Explaining Brazil's Negotiating Position in the Doha Round

This article investigates the effects of a transfer between two countries participating in a customs union. This analysis yields very paradoxical results which differ from the conclusions obtained by the traditional literature which has been developed in a two-country framework or in a multilateral world but with universal free trade. The compensation scheme adopted by the authorities of the customs union may create an overall terms of trade deterioration and induce an impoverishment for both member countries. Thus, transfers may not be an adequate instrument to redistribute the gains of economic integration between the members of a free trade association.     

Trade Integration and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America & Caribbean Merchandise Export

This study examined the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Latin America & Caribbean (LAC) on the export of five merchandise subsectors (during 1995 to 2010) using the World Development Indicators database. Despite improvements observed, SSA’s and LAC’s trade share and economic integration are low. LAC has stronger RCA than SSA in export of food items though the gap in their competitiveness is not wide. The SSA region has higher RCA in export of agricultural raw materials, fuel, and ores and metals than LAC. Both regions have revealed comparative disadvantage in the export of manufactures, though lesser in LAC.     

论区域经济一体化及其对多边贸易体制的影响

区域一体化对于世贸组织的多边贸易体制既有有利的一面,也有不利的一面。通过区域一体化,可以试行一些尚未在世贸组织的多边贸易体制中出现的新制度或新规则,即作为世贸组织多边贸易体制的实验场所。但是,区域一体化可能与世贸组织的多边贸易体制发生冲突,需要协调两者之间的关系。世贸组织所面临的挑战是如何监督和控制区域一体化,使它们在多边贸易的框架内运行,并且不对多边贸易自由化构成威胁。     

An Experimental Investigation of Virtual Negotiations with Dynamic Plots

Advanced information and communications technologies provide the basis for virtual negotiations where competitors continuously alter their assignments in real-time in response to market changes. Dynamic plots, which depict the competitors' possible profits and hints for how to improve them, provide a way to support these types of negotiation settings. This research reports on an experimental assessment of dynamic plots for visual interactive negotiations. Dynamic plots are compared to an alternative dynamic method of real-time negotiation support using selected conflict situations to test five hypotheses. The results of the laboratory assessment provide evidence for the hypotheses that dynamic plots stimulate negotiations, provide effective support to reach efficient, system optimal, and equitable solutions, and are well received as negotiation tools in real-time settings.     

中部地区贸易投资一体化的实证研究

近20多年来,中部地区的对外贸易和外商直接投资都取得了较快的发展。文章利用最新时间序列数据,通过回归分析和Granger因果检验方法对中部地区对外贸易与外商直接投资之间的相互关系进行了全面的实证分析认为,中部地区对外贸易与外商直接投资尽管能够相互促进,但它们之间基本上并不存在因果关系。最后提出了中部地区贸易投资一体化的对策建议。     

区域整合:对外贸易增长迅速的解决途径

对外贸易的激增一方面拉动了我国经济增长,一方面又产生了许多问题.其对经济增长的拉动固然重要,但由此所产生的问题也不容忽视,因此,深入分析产生问题的深层次原因并找出解决方案就变得尤其重要.文章认为增加国内贸易是解决对外贸易激增的最佳方案,而区域整合形成的区域市场一体化又可以促进国内贸易;区域整合和区域市场一体化是解决问题的有效途径.     

对俄贸易谈判中的语言使用

随着中俄两国之间经贸交流与合作的加强,对俄贸易谈判技巧和相关知识也日益受到从事商业活动的人士的重视。了解俄方文化习俗的一些禁忌,学会在商业谈判及商业活动中使用规范的文本语言在对俄商业活动中的成功起着重大的作用。     

内外贸一体化的内涵、经济效应及其路径选择

行政管理体制的变化只是引起对内外贸一体化问题讨论的引线,真正的经济背景是经济结构调整和扩大国内需求。内外贸一体化是以企业为主体的市场自发演进过程,它有助于加快基于比较优势和规模收益的区域产业结构调整和优化,并通过产业结构和贸易结构调整促进国内需求快速增长。企业选择内外贸一体化经营,除了受到内部预算约束和外部市场规模限制以外,还依赖于产业链的延展路径和市场一体化的程度。     

基于引力模型的产业内贸易与区域经济一体化研究

产业内贸易和区域经济一体化是当今国际贸易领域关注的重大理论和实践问题,在新贸易理论中,两者在共同因素的作用下被有机地联系起来。本文结合产业内贸易与新区域经济一体化理论,运用贸易引力模型,对两者之间的关系做计量检验,进而为我国区域经济一体化进程和产业内贸易发展提供相关的政策建议。     

Business-to-Business Negotiations: The Role of Relativism,Deceit, and Opportunism

Purpose: Studies examining the impact of relativism and deceitful tendencies on unethical negotiation tactics have yielded inconsistent results; some studies report a positive relationship, some negative, while some others report a nonexistent relationship between these constructs. These inconsistencies suggest that there may be intervening variables mediating the effects of these factors on unethical negotiation tactics. We propose that opportunism plays an important role in determining the effects of these two antecedents on business managers' perceptions of unethical negotiation tactics.

Method: An Internet-based survey was administered to a sample of managers at U.S. firms engaged in business-to-business marketing. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to evaluate the mediating role of opportunism between deceitful tendencies and relativism on questionable negotiation tactics.

Findings: The analysis supports the hypothesized role of opportunism as a mediating variable. Opportunism was found to play a significant role in mediating the relationships of both relativism and deceitful tendencies on attitudes toward unethical negotiation tactics.

Contribution: In addition to the theoretical contributions suggested here, this article includes suggestions for minimizing the likelihood that a negotiation partner's relativism and deceitful tendencies will negatively impact business negotiation.     

从产业间贸易到产业内贸易——我国贸易结构演变的实证研究

本文基于我国1992-2003年间的数据,对产业间-产业内贸易结构及其与经济发展水平之间的联系进行检验。首先将产业内贸易分为水平型与垂直型两类,考察了产业间贸易、两种类型产业内贸易结构的演变。然后探讨了贸易结构的这种演变与我国经济发展水平之间的关系。得出以下结论:我国贸易结构以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且具有增加趋势;产业间贸易比重略低于垂直产业内贸易比重,但呈现减少趋势;水平产业内贸易比重一直较小。我国垂直产业内贸易与我国参与国际垂直分工的程度密不可分,并且垂直产业内贸易的发展与经济发展水平之间具有显著的正相关性。     

多边贸易谈判机制的逻辑:一种新贸易理论的解释

按照传统贸易理论的逻辑,在自由贸易最优的世界里,像WTO这样的多边贸易谈判的场所是没有存在的必要,因为各个政府从自身利益出发所做出的决策会自发地导致多边贸易自由化局面的产生。然而现实中的世界并非如此;多边贸易机构不仅存在,而且在国际经济中还发挥着十分重要的作用。目前WTO的存在,促进了自由贸易均衡的实现,而多边贸易协调解决机制保证了各国之间贸易政策博弈中的“冷酷战略”威协的实施,使博弈达到“共赢”的均衡。     

“寡头”市场结构、贸易媒介与贸易商品定价——分析框架及基于棉花贸易史的案例研究

中国在贸易中面临"寡头"地位确立与定价权缺失共存的困境,通过提出一个引入贸易媒介环节的三分法贸易商品定价框架对此进行解释。贸易商品定价受到"寡头"国家/政府政策作用于贸易媒介市场结构程度的影响,还依赖于出口国/进口国的微观市场结构状况。贸易媒介通过与生产者和消费者的定价博弈选择使其利润最大化的买卖价格,政府政策/私人保护通过影响贸易媒介市场结构间接影响贸易商品定价。利用典型的英美棉花贸易"双寡头"案例,通过价格变动的相对弹性、转嫁系数和Granger因果检验三种方法定量分析了英美棉花贸易的定价博弈,计量结果与三分法分析结果完全符合,为论文提出的分析框架提供了例证支持。     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

中国—东盟运输服务贸易一体化的现状、水平与发展前景

通过分析中国-东盟运输服务贸易的现状和一体化水平,发现中国与东盟国家运输服务贸易在硬件建设上获得了较大的进步,但软件一体化的建设较晚;中国与东盟各国的运输服务贸易增长很快,但长期处于逆差的状态;中国—东盟的运输服务贸易一体化水平较高,且中国对东盟进口的密集度大于出口的密集度,未来一体化有上升的趋势。展望未来,由于中国与东盟国家近年来物流基础设施的发展、自由贸易区的如期建立、双边货物贸易的发展、物流水平、设施和环境有所改善等因素客观上决定了中国与东盟国家未来的运输服务贸易一体化将进一步深化。     

加工贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——以山东省为例

文章以山东省为例,运用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验等新兴的计量方法对加工贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证检验,并与一般贸易进行了比较分析.研究结果表明,在长期内,加工贸易与经济增长之间存在着稳定的正相关的关系,但是加工贸易对经济增长的带动作用明显小于一般贸易.此外,加工贸易净出口和出口对经济增长的贡献率和拉动度也明显小于一般贸易.