捷克与中国的经贸关系评估

捷克与中国的经贸关系正处于一个关键时期。20世纪90年代初捷克与中国的双边贸易发展并不顺利,但进入21世纪以后捷克政府和工商界高度重视与中国发展经贸关系,两国在对方的投资保持一定的水平,但远低于捷克的预期。如何扩大捷克与中国在贸易与投资方面的合作值得进一步研究。     

中韩贸易发展与展望

中韩建交20年来,两国进入了直接贸易阶段。中韩经贸关系发展日新月异,但一些问题也变得更加突出,如贸易与投资的不平衡等,使双边关系可持续性发展面临着诸多挑战。与此同时,两国关系的发展又存在历史机遇。如何抓住契机,扩大交流与合作领域,实现双赢和地区多赢,是两国政府应该认真研究的重大课题。     

Canada,China,Closer in Hard Times

Facing the current global financial storm,more pos- sible economic and trade cooperation and promotion worldwide is being sought by nations to walk out the hard time. The 2nd Canada China Business Forum held in Beijing,on November 3, is an example to a closer tie of both countries.     

Canada,China,Closer in Hard Times

Facing the current global financial storm,more pos- sible economic and trade cooperation and promotion worldwide is being sought by nations to walk out the hard time. The 2nd Canada China Business Forum held in Beijing,on November 3, is an example to a closer tie of both countries.It     

资本投资、国际贸易与中国经济增长的动态研究

采用时间序列分析方法,研究了1985-2003年中国固定资产投资、进出口与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,GDP与投资和进出口之间不存在协整关系,即变量之间并不存在稳定的长期均衡关系。脉冲—响应函数分析以及方差分解分析表明,出口和投资在短期内对GDP增长具有重要的正面影响,而进口在短期内对产出会产生负面影响,但经过一定时期后,进口的正面作用逐渐显现。这些研究结果与新古典模型关于资本深化以及内生增长理论关于进口的论断是一致的。     

APEC贸易投资自由化:进程、挑战与展望

亚太经济合作组织(APEC)自成立以来,在推进贸易投资自由化方面取得了显著成效,关税和非关税壁垒大幅削减,服务业总体开放程度提高,投资准入门槛降低,但与亚太地区自由与开放的贸易投资目标仍存在一定差距。当前,APEC面临国际环境、内部机制、议题领域、成员利益以及与区域内其他合作机制关系等方面的挑战。为此,APEC需要进一步完善机制,以亚太自贸区建设作为新动力,打造更加包容普惠的贸易投资自由化,并发挥国际经贸规则制定的试验场作用。作为APEC重要成员之一,中国应积极参与和引领APEC机制的改革,推动构建全面、高质量的亚太自贸区,将"共商、共建、共享"的新理念融入APEC贸易投资自由化进程,并利用APEC平台参与国际经贸规则的制定。     

中国推动建立FTA的外交努力

构建自由贸易区目前已经成为各国争取市场资源、扩大发展空间、提升国际地位的重要战略手段,中国通过首脑外交、商务部的专业外交、外交部的功能外交等各方面的外交努力,认真实施自由贸易区战略,积极推进自由贸易区建设。目前,国际金融危机导致全球自由贸易面临巨大的挑战,在当前背景下加快推进自由贸易区建设,对于有效应对国际金融危机影响,促进国民经济持续稳定发展,具有重要的意义。     

论海外直接投资与贸易的关系

从理论上讲,对外直接投资与国际贸易的关系即存在互补性,也具有相互替代性,这要根据母国(或跨国公司)投资的动机、类型和发展阶段而定.本文回顾了发达国家和发展中国家在此方面的实践,并结合我国海外投资与贸易出口的实际,按几个行业分别分析了海外投资与贸易的互补或替代关系.论文认为,由于投资行业的特点和投资区域的不同,海外投资对我国对外贸易的影响要视具体的投资行业和投资区域而定.从目前看,政府应该给予具有贸易创造效应的海外投资在政策上的大力支持.     

India's Trade Policy Reforms and Industry Competitiveness in the 1980s

The paper proposes a method of measuring and analyzing competitiveness, and applies it to Indian manufacturing data of 1980/81, 1987/88 and 1991/92. The method consists of computing a unit cost ration and breaking it down into various components, ditinguishing between comparative advantage measured at shadow prices, and competitive advantage measured at market prices. The difference, equal to the sum of all price ditortions, may enhance or diminish competitiveness, depending on whether the distortions are cost‐increasing or ‐decreasing. The study reviews first the limited trade reforms of the 1980s and examines whether they have led to increased competitiveness. Although the present study is limited to less than the full potential of the method, due to lack of adequate data, it demonstrates, that the policy changes of the 1980s have failed to enhance the competitiveness of the industrial sector as a whole, while some industries have undergone substantive changes. In three industry case studies the results are compared with the findings of earlir studies.     

Moving up or moving out? A unified theory of R&D, FDI, and trade

This paper introduces industrial heterogeneity in R&D productivity into the quality-ladder model of the North-South trade to study how firms' choices made between R&D and foreign direct investment (FDI) vary across industries, and how such choices consequently determine the evolution of comparative advantage and trade. It shows that trade reveals product-cycle dynamics in medium-tech industries but remains static in others. High-tech industries experience continued innovation in the North with no migration of product lines. Medium- and low-tech industries migrate South via FDI to exploit low production costs with the South then replacing the North as the dominant exporter. However, medium-tech industry production eventually shifts back to the North when superior products are marketed by Northern innovators, making the end of one complete product cycle and the start of the next. Because of marginal R&D productivity, the relocated low-tech industries are not presented with the option of moving up and thus stagnate.     

Exposure to foreign markets and plant-level innovation: evidence from Chile and Mexico

Unlike most studies that calculate productivity as a residual, this study uses detailed plant-level data to examine the relationship between exposure to foreign markets and specific innovations including product design, investment in new tools (such as computers), research and development, and innovation in products and processes. The results suggest that exposure to foreign markets is positively related to most types of technology. The effects seem to be stronger in recently liberalized Mexico, which may suggest that the innovation gains from liberalization are greatest in the early stages of liberalization.     

中国与日、韩、俄经贸关系对经济的贡献比较

本文分析了中国与日、韩、俄三国之间外贸依存度对相关国家经济的贡献程度,并运用贸易乘数比较了双边贸易对相关国家经济的贡献度(贸易所得);从(直接)投资依存度的角度分析了中国与三国间相互投资对经济的贡献程度,并运用投资收益率比较了相互投资对相关国家经济的贡献度(投资所得);综合贸易所得和投资所得,估算了双边经贸关系对相关国家经济的贡献度;最后,就如何深化中国与三国的经贸关系进行了若干思考。     

基于企业性质的贸易顺差与贸易摩擦分析

随着我国贸易顺差的不断上升和贸易摩擦案件的频发,贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的问题引起了广泛的关注。通过理论分析和实证分析的方法,本文从企业性质的角度研究了我国贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的形成原因及其相互关系,研究表明内需不足、人民币估值过低并不是我国贸易顺差形成的原因,而是大额贸易顺差所产生的结果;我国贸易顺差的形成是外商直接投资企业推动的国际分工体系深化的结果,与企业性质存在着直接的联系。     

服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡分析

在不考虑其它影响美中贸易的因素情形下,本文深入地研究了服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡之间的关系。研究表明服务贸易在平衡美中贸易失衡中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是缓解美中贸易失衡的有效工具。美中服务贸易顺差抵消美中货物贸易逆差的作用在将来较长一段时期内仍会持续下去,而且抵消幅度可能会越来越大,这对美中贸易逆差的缩小将产生巨大的影响,美中贸易失衡格局将难以为继。     

Emerging Interaction of Political Processes

Abstract

The emerging interaction of political processes sets the stage for the level of macro uncertainty and specific risk events that may occur in an international relationship. Strongly defined social control in Cuba, formal and informal, dominates the dynamics of the relationship, while simultaneously government, formal, action in the U.S. dominates the ability of American individuals to further the relationship. This study examines the development of a long-term relationship between two universities from the U.S. and Cuba. Over a period of eight years the relationship changes considerably as events on the macro stage play out and the environment for détente shifts. The key focus of this relationship lies with developing the study abroad program, taking students from the U.S. to Cuba.     

中美贸易摩擦对两岸经贸关系的影响

长期以来,"台湾接单-大陆生产-出口美欧"这一典型的三角贸易模式是两岸经贸合作的主要形式。经过多年的发展,两岸之间已经形成了密切的经贸联系。然而,在中美贸易摩擦持续发酵的背景下,尤其是在台湾当局"去中国化"经贸政策的影响下,两岸经贸合作面临的不确定性和困难有所增加。为规避中美贸易摩擦的消极影响,两岸经贸合作态势也出现相应调整。一是两岸贸易出现了明显的替代和转移效应;二是部分台商加快调整全球产业布局;三是两岸高科技产业合作步伐放缓。鉴于中美贸易摩擦前景尚不明朗,对两岸经贸关系的影响也值得持续关注。     

国际贸易对中外双向投资影响的实证分析

改革开放以来尤其是我国加入世贸以来,我国国际贸易额大幅上升,与此同时,流入我国的外商直接投资和我国的对外直接投资同时迅猛地增长。那么国际贸易和双向投资之间是否存在着某种必然的相关性呢?运用计量经济学的方法对我国国际贸易额与我国双向FDI的总量关系进行实证分析,得出结论,国际贸易对我国双向FDI起着促进作用,其中,对外商直接投资促进作用较大(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的进口就会流入0.303亿美元的FDI,每产生一亿美元的出口就会流入0.208亿美元的FDI),对对外直接投资影响较小(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的贸易仅对对外投资0.003 203亿美元)。并由此提出了一些建设性的意见。     

A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises

This paper addresses two important issues at the nexus of the literatures on international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign affiliate sales (FAS), and multinational enterprises (MNEs). First, the introduction of a third internationally-mobile factor (physical capital) to the standard 2 × 2 × 2 “knowledge-capital” model of MNEs with skilled and unskilled labor allows us to resolve fairly readily the puzzle in the modern MNE literature that foreign affiliate sales among two identical economies completely displace their international trade. Intra-industry trade and intra-industry FDI (and FAS) can coexist for national and multinational firms (with identical productivities) in identical countries. Second, the introduction also of a third country to the model suggests a formal N-country theoretical rationale for estimating gravity equations of bilateral FDI flows and FAS, in a manner consistent with estimating gravity equations for bilateral trade flows.