The Cuban market:: Opportunities and barriers

To open our feature on business in Cuba, Kaplowitz presents a brief overview of the dramatic changes in the Cuban market since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989. Until 1988, 85% of Cuban two-way trade was with the former Soviet Union, but by 1993 the COMECON nations accounted for only 20% of Cuban trade. The resulting chaos has created openings for Latin American, European and Canadian businesses to fill the investment void in Cuba. Kaplowitz lays out how recent developments have affected Cuban laws on foreign investment and trade, reviews which foreign companies are barkening to Cuba's call, and what the opportunities might be for U.S. businesses should relations between the two countries improve over the long-term. Her article is the first of seven articles in this feature.     

Paraguay and Mercosur: The Lesser of Two Evils?

ABSTRACT

This article examines Paraguay's experience with Mercosur in terms of its impact on economic growth, trade, investment, industrial competitiveness, and income distribution. Of particular interest is Mercosur's impact on the flourishing border trade taking place under the “regimen de turismo,” a special tax regime for consumer goods, especially electronics. The author concludes that while Mercosur has not brought all the benefits expected from membership in the customs union, being excluded from Mercosur might have been worse for the Paraguayan economy.     

China's regulated marketing mix: The role of the state administration Bureau for industry and commerce

China is the most populous and the fastest growing major economy in the world. Although still a centralized economy, free enterprise and foreign investment is now encouraged. Many regulations have recently been introduced to control the new trade based economy. These are policed by the State Administration Bureau for Industry and Commerce, a huge bureaucracy with thousands of local offices. This paper reviews how it manages trade and particularly the marketing mix in China. The power of the local offices is discussed and a distinction drawn between “the rule of men” and “the rule of law”. It provides recommendations for trading in China.     

Trade,growth and wage inequality in Bangladesh

Abstract

Using model selection techniques based on out-of-sample predictive ability criterion in a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework, this paper empirically examines the causal relations among growth, trade, and wage inequality in Bangladesh between 1971 and 2000. There is some evidence of bi-directional causality between growth and inequality and between trade and growth. That growth causes trade and that trade causes inequality are robust results. Furthermore, evidence strongly suggests that investment is important for trade, and the terms of trade between agricultural products and manufacturing products is an important causal determinant of both growth and trade.     

Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement: An Analysis

ABSTRACT

The Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect in June 1997. This paper examines the rationale for free trade negotiations between Canada and Chile. Key trade and investment issues in the Canada-Chile FTA are also discussed. Although it is only a few years since the Canada-Chile FTA entered into force, the preliminary results indicate impressive growth in trade and investment between the two countries.

RESUMEN. El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Canadá-Chile (ALC) entró en vigor en junio 1997. Este documento examina el razonamiento que respalda las negociaciones entre Canadá y Chile sobre el Acuerdo de libre comercio. También abraca los temas más importantes sobre el comercio e inversiones entre Canadá-Chile. A pesar del poco tiempo transcurrido desde que se implantó el acuerdo de ALC entre Canadá y Chile, los resultados preliminarios indican una impresionante tasa de crecimiento entre las inversiones realizadas entre ambos países.

RESUMO. O Acordo de Livre Comércio (ALC) Canadá-Chile entrou em vigor em junho de 1997. Este estudo investiga os fundamentos das livres negociaç[otilde]es comerciais entre o Canadá e o Chile. São abordados, também, o comércio principal e os investimentos realizados no ALC Canadá-Chile. Apesar de estar em vigor há poucos anos, os resultados preliminares deste acordo indicam um crescimento impressionante no comércio e nos investimentos entre os dois países.     

Will They Still Love Us Tomorrow? Canada‐Cuba Business Relations and the End of the US Embargo

This article looks at the business prospects for Canadian firms resulting from a gradual easing of US economic sanctions against Cuba. In the short term, the status quo on the embargo will mean little change for Canadian commercial interests. In the medium term, the removal of certain embargo provisions like the travel ban should provide a fertile ground for trade and investment. In the long term, once the whole embargo is finally lifted, Canadian companies should have the same competitive advantages in Cuba they already enjoy in Latin America, and especially in the Caribbean region. In general, traders will suffer more than investors from fierce US competition, but there should be growing opportunities in many business areas. Aggressive credit policies, innovative ways to acquire a greater knowledge of the Cuban market, and supply‐chain integration are among the key strategies that must be developed to overcome challenges and fully exploit these opportunities. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

On the Irrelevance of Mercosur: Evidence From Foreign Direct Investment

ABSTRACT

This article utilizes data from more than 100 countries over 30 years to identify the key factors that make a country more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find evidence that a country's potential marginal returns to capital, available infrastructure, degree of trade openness, labor force qualification, and macroeconomic stability have a positive impact on FDI inflows. Our estimates capture a change in the role played by trade protection and an increase in the importance of human capital as globalization progressed. An application of our models illustrates why Mercosur countries have underperformed their peers in attracting FDI.     

Poland's Investment Development Path and Industry Structure of FDI Inflows and Outflows

ABSTRACT

This study explores changes in industry composition of FDI inflows to and outflows from Poland, using the conceptual framework of J. Dunning's model of the investment development path (IDP). The data time frame used (from 1996 to 2005) allows for identification of significant changes in FDI structure as Poland moves through stage 2 of her IDP. The leading position of the manufacturing sector in both FDI inflows and outflows is replaced by services (especially financial and trade). The last section presents policy implications focused on measures designed to redress the imbalance between the still much larger inflows than outflows of FDI.     

A general equilibrium model of bilateral trade with strategic public investment in commercial infrastructure

We explore how public investment in commercial infrastructure affects the composition of trade between countries. To this end, we develop a model of bilateral trade in which two countries produce, consume, and trade a continuum of goods. Goods are produced by a single homogeneous factor, labor, the productivity of which depends on the quality of the country’s commercial infrastructure, broadly conceived to encompass transportation, communication, and power transmission networks; regulatory and legal institutions; and basic research and educational systems. Countries may improve the quality of their commercial infrastructures through increased public investment. However, returns on these investments are constrained by fixed ‘natural’ endowments, with the better-endowed country enjoying greater labor productivity for a given level of public investment. We begin by analyzing optimal investment in public infrastructure in one country when public investment by the trading partner is fixed. We find that, ceteris paribus, greater public investment in commercial infrastructure raises general labor productivity, leading to gains in workers’ real income. We then analyze a non-cooperative game in which both countries strategically vary public investment in commercial infrastructure. We find that, in a Nash game, the better-endowed country optimally spends more on infrastructure and produces the goods requiring the greatest labor productivity. However, in a Stackelberg game, the results are ambiguous. An empirical analysis based on recent international trade data supports our theoretical finding that investment in public infrastructure is positively related to the export of ‘high-end’ goods.     

The changing place of fraud in seventeenth-century public debates about international trading corporations

Abstract

This article surveys the changing role of fraud (dishonest and immoral commercial practices) in public justifications for corporate management of overseas trade in England across the seventeenth century. It argues that the perceived likelihood of fraud in international commercial settings played a critical role in public justifications for trading corporations at the beginning of the seventeenth century. The article suggests that these justifications were challenged from the 1690s. It explores three aspects of this challenge: first, the ways in which agents of the East India Company convinced the Company to liberate private trade (an activity previously defined as fraudulent by the Company and the Courts); second, the arguments from the 1680s that depicted the joint-stock corporation as an unaccountable, soulless entity whose claim to public trust looked less credible; third, how decades of accumulated experience of international trading contexts (and interactions with non-European merchants) prompted pamphleteers to promote the possibility (and reality) of unregulated trade in those settings. All three helped to erode the former association between private individual trade in international contexts as likely to encourage dishonesty, immorality, and fraud. This change therefore led to the corporate body itself becoming a possible vehicle for fraud rather than the individual international merchant (who the corporation was meant originally to regulate). The article analyses public deliberations about fraud and corporations to make interventions in the history of economic thought, the history of trading companies, and the history of economic crime (and especially its rhetorical role in debates about the regulation of trade).     

中国商贸流通业发展方式的评价及其转变的路径分析

改革开放以来我国商贸流通业取得了快速发展,但由于经济体制转型过程的复杂性,导致我国商贸流通业发展方式比较粗放,不能适应我国经济发展方式转变的要求。文章基于对中国商贸流通业发展方式的统计数据分析,运用经济增长和发展理论来分析资本、劳动、技术进步等因素对商贸流通业发展的综合影响,对中国商贸流通业发展方式做出评价,认为现阶段中国商贸流通业发展方式基本还处于投入推动型的粗放式发展阶段,要实现商贸流通业从粗放式向集约式发展方式的转变,必须在增加物质资本投入的同时,增加人力资本的投入。通过加快流通企业的技术进步,来提高流通效率和效益。在加大技术投入的基础上,进一步促进流通业的信息化。     

On Income Convergence among China,Hong Kong and Macau

Hong Kong and Macau were reunited with China in the late 1990s as two special administrative regions (SARs). Over the last half century, they were China's good examples of economic development, windows of openness and investors. Owing to historical reasons, China lagged far behind Hong Kong and Macau in terms of per capita incomes. However, rapid economic growth in China over the last three decades must have brought about a significant convergence of the three economies. China's economic success has benefited from the integration of its two SARs and the coastal provinces, especially Guangdong, in terms of technological spillover, massive investment and trade. The economic trickledown, direct investment and trade must have been important drivers of economic integration and income convergence. This paper aims to analyse the trend and studies the determinants of income convergence between China and its two SARs. Both parametric and non‐parametric techniques are employed to quantify the pace of convergence on per capita incomes in Hong Kong, Macau and the Chinese provinces over a period of more than 40 years. We find no evidence of convergence in the pre‐reform period, but strong evidence of both absolute and conditional β‐convergence in the post‐reform period. Over the reform period, the pace of convergence is less than 1 per cent per annum without controlling for trade and more than 2 per cent conditional on trade.     

Retail trade and payment innovations in the digital era: a cross-industry and multi-country approach

Abstract

This article introduces a novel approach to payment innovations. It t identifies a cross-industry (retail trade and retail banking) and multi-country (USA, some Western European countries and Japan) approach to the interaction between these industries and the new retail payment systems from the 1970s to the mid 1990s. It documents and discusses the different trajectories that have been seen in the different competitive environments, particularly in regard to payment cards. It also analyses the involvement of bankers and retailers in the evolution of card payment systems and their contribution to the global adoption of bank cards. These processes have occurred within a framework in which sectoral boundaries have taken precedence over the payment alternatives associated with cross-industry solutions.     

What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening

What key roles do macroeconomic and financial variables play in the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision of firms? This question is addressed in this paper using a large panel data set of cross-border Merger & Acquisition (M&A) deals for the period 1990-1999. Various econometric specifications are built around the simple “gravity model” commonly used in the trade literature. Interestingly, financial variables and other institutional factors seem to play a significant role in M&A flows. In particular, the size of financial markets, as measured by the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio, has a strong positive association with domestic firms investing abroad. This result points to the importance of domestic financial conditions in stimulating international investment during the boom years of 1990s, and accords with the significant drop in cross-border M&As in recent years.     

Advertainment

Abstract

This essay explores the issues implicated by entertainment vehicles created solely to spotlight specific advertisers. From the contemporary exemplar of this paradigm in the highly successful 1990-1998 “Sophisticated Taste” campaign for Taster's Choice(r) instant coffee, in which viewers watched the sparks fly between the characters of Tony and Sharon in a continuing series of ads that functioned as television programming across multiple media platforms, to the most recent incarnation in advergames, online computer games that promote brands, this study considers the nature and implications of perhaps the ultimate evolution of product placement and blurring of the lines between entertainment and commercial persuasion.     

Institutions and offshoring behavior

ABSTRACT

This article tests whether institutions matter differentially across different sectors in offshoring behavior once the choice to invest abroad has already been made; i.e., how they affect trade between parent and foreign affiliates. Using data on US direct investment abroad, we find that institutional characteristics of the country and industry positively affect the volume of offshoring between US companies and their affiliates. This also depends on the type of relationship between the parent company and its foreign affiliate. The suggested argument is stronger for intermediate products, while evidence is weak for products ready for sale.     

The ‘disguised’ foreign investor: Brands,trademarks and the British expatriate entrepreneur in Brazil

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the British expatriate entrepreneur, and his processes of knowledge transfer, on the industrialization and economic development of Brazil between 1875 and 1914. It focuses on the textiles industry, and combines original trademark data with conventional trade and investment statistics, and also case study analysis about firms and their entrepreneurs. It argues that British investment in Brazil was higher and had a deeper impact on economic development than considered by existing research, as expatriate entrepreneurs ‘disguised’ a substantial amount of foreign investments by acting as shareholders and top managers of newly established local businesses.     

The Increased Role of Foreign Capital in the Peruvian Financial System

Summary

Foreign investment has played a very important role in developing Peru's banking sector since 1990. Indeed, as of June 1998, half of all bank assets were foreign-controlled. Much of this increased participation by outside entities can be traced to the privatization drive and to discriminatory reserve requirements on domestic deposits. Despite financial deepening, the analysis conducted here finds that the financial sector has not become more efficient in lowering the cost of intermediation as measured by the interest spread between loans and deposits.     

Global capital flows and development: A Survey

Abstract

From a development perspective, capital flows can both provide significant benefits and entail significant costs. Consequently, the development impacts of capital flows do not readily lend themselves to simple generalizations. This survey considers the development benefits and costs of four kinds of capital flows: foreign direct investment, equity portfolio investment, bond finance, and commercial bank lending. The survey suggests that the development impacts of these flows are conditional on both their specific characteristics and the larger policy environments in which they take place. It claims short-term superiority for foreign direct investment and equity portfolio investment over bond finance and commercial bank lending, and offers a set of policy recommendations to make capital flows more development-friendly.     

Emerging Interaction of Political Processes

Abstract

The emerging interaction of political processes sets the stage for the level of macro uncertainty and specific risk events that may occur in an international relationship. Strongly defined social control in Cuba, formal and informal, dominates the dynamics of the relationship, while simultaneously government, formal, action in the U.S. dominates the ability of American individuals to further the relationship. This study examines the development of a long-term relationship between two universities from the U.S. and Cuba. Over a period of eight years the relationship changes considerably as events on the macro stage play out and the environment for détente shifts. The key focus of this relationship lies with developing the study abroad program, taking students from the U.S. to Cuba.