股票送转、除权日异常收益与分析师关注度

本文使用事件研究的方法,利用1999年到2009年的中国股市上市公司的股票送股、转增事件的相关数据,分析发现这些股票会由于除权日时间而获得正的异常收益,这一结果不随着不同的统计假设、送转事件是否伴随着现金红利以及按照送股与转增的比例、现金红利数量划分的子样本而改变。探究这种异常收益的来源,发现分析师关注度(下文以分析师关注度来代替)会正向显著的影响异常收益;每多一名分析师关注这支送转的股票会在除权日多带来0.2元的异常收益,并且这种关系是稳健的,进一步通过工具变量回归解决了分析师关注的内生性。     

香港上市公司盈余公告日附近异常市场回报率研究

文章采用动态资产定价模型(conditional CAPM),避免了无风险收益率及市场风险回报率在期间可能变动的问题;研究结果并未发现盈余公告期间市场风险回报率的显著增长,却发现决定系数R2变小,这一点验证了公司公告发布日附近的期望收益更多的是由公司个别因素、而不是市场因素来决定的。同时,我们还发现异常回报率和公司规模之间的相对较弱的负相关性。     

中国上市公司股权转让市场效应的实证研究

本文研究了中国产权改革背景下控制权市场是否有效的问题。根据2003-2004年深沪A股上市公司的214起大宗股权转让记录,本文采用事项研究法研究了股权转让对公司市场价值的影响,并进一步考察了累积非正常回报率的影响因素。本文研究发现(1)股票市场对大宗股权转让的市场反应显著为正。平均而言,股票价格在转让公告前20个交易日开始上涨至公告后一个交易日,累积非正常回报率约为1.15%;(2)转让的价格越高,向市场传达积极的信号,市场反应越好;(3)控制权转让的公司比那些不转让控制权的公司有着更好的反应。     

How Does Stock Market React to Dividend Surprises? Evidence from Emerging Markets of India and Russia

In this article the authors empirically investigate information content of dividends announcements and average reaction of emerging markets of India and Russia to dividend surprises on the postcrisis period 2010 to 2014. The study applies an analysts’ expectations-based approach rarely used in academic literature. The authors conclude that the Russian market on average reacts negatively to good and bad dividend surprises; good dividend surprises on average trigger positive abnormal returns on Indian stocks, whereas bad and no surprises are associated with negative reactions of the Indian market. Results of the study are discussed from the perspective of dividend signaling theory, market efficiency, and investor behavior.     

Overconfidence Mediates How Perception of past Portfolio Returns Affects Investment Behaviors

Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.     

中国上市公司管理层收购的股价反应——与投资者市场行为理性的对照检验

本文采用标准事件研究法来考察管理层收购(MBO)在中国证券市场的股价反应。与在国外给公众股东带来巨大溢价形成对比的是,MBO在中国没有给流通股东带来收益,市场对MBO公告没有做出任何显著反应。进一步对中国投资者是否具有理性进行检验和比较后发现投资者是理性的,MBO在中国既不属于“利好”,也不属于“利空”,且似乎有市场操纵嫌疑,必须进一步规范。     

房地产业发展对资本回报率的影响

采用资本租金公式法测算资本回报率,结果显示,房地产业发展拉低了资本回报率,2003年之后愈加明显。通过对房地产业投资和资本回报率关系的检验,发现房地产业投资对实体经济影响有限,短期拉动作用表现为年度贡献,长期内存在较大的波动效应;房地产业发展对资本回报率省际趋同效应的减弱日益显著。     

中国股市收益与经济增长背离现象的协整性检验

近年来很多专家学者已经注意到了中国股市收益与经济增长相背离的现象,并将这种现象称之为“股经背离”。应用计量经济学中的协整理论,对我国股市收益与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,代表虚拟经济的股市和代表实体经济的经济增长之间并不具有长期的均衡关系,从而用计量经济学的方法进一步证实了“股经背离”现象的存在。     

灾害事件后管理层回应方式对股票收益影响的实证研究——以5.12汶川地震为例

灾害事件发生后,不同公司的管理层往往表现出不同的回应方式,有的承认灾害的影响并积极应对,有的则否认影响或消极逃避。因此,管理层的回应方式可分为接受型和防御型两种。以5.12地震为例,对灾害事件发生后上市公司管理层的回应方式与股票收益的关系进行研究。结果表明,灾害事件后管理层回应方式对股票收益有显著影响,与接受型相比,投资者对防御型回应的反应更积极,且首次公告时回应方式对股票收益的影响显著强于非首次公告。     

Market valuation of marketing alliances in East Asia: Korean evidence

This paper investigates firm value created by non-equity marketing alliance announcements of Korean listed firms in terms of stock price reactions to the announcements. We find evidence that on the Korean stock market, the announcements of marketing alliances produce significant positive abnormal returns, which reflect an increase in firm value, around the announcement date. This suggests that firm managers need to seek for various marketing alliances not only for an effective competition in competitive business environments but also for enhancement in shareholder wealth. The increase in firm value has inverse relationship with firm's size and growth opportunity. In particular, marketing alliances with firms based in G7-countries create greater firm value than ones with firms based in the home country. Our study provides investors, firm managers, and academics with valuable implications of an importance of marketing alliances for valuation of firms in other Asian countries as well as in Korea.     

Short-term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets

This paper examines the short-term market reaction of four agricultural commodities to the Russian–Ukraine war and various stages of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement. Using an event study, the results show a positive abnormal return for the agricultural grain markets with the outbreak of the war and the nonrenewal of the Black Sea Grain Agreement. These two events by causing supply-side constraints, led to an increase in the price of grains. The results also show negative and statistically significant abnormal returns around the signing of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, its implementation through the departure of the first ship loaded with Ukrainian grain after the beginning of the war and the successive extensions of the agreement. These disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also have critical implications for world food security. Policy implications of our findings are provided.     

Trade liberalization,free trade agreements,and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore

We examine the effects of the United States–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the value of firms listed in the Singapore Exchange using event study analysis. Despite the predictability of the FTA negotiations, we find that one event – the removal of the last obstacle to the free trade deal in January 2003 – increases the value of firms in some industries by 1–11% on average. These results indicate that trade liberalization and FTAs do increase the value of firms.     

股改对中国证券市场有效性影响的实证分析

文章以2005年4月至2007年3月,沪深300指数所包含的股票为样本股,采用股价非同步指标对中国证券市场股价信息含量进行实证研究.结果表明,股权分置改革以后的证券市场中所包含的公司信息含量呈上升趋势,股权分置改革对市场效率的提高产生了积极影响.     

我国股指期货市场羊群行为实证研究

通过比较分析CSSD和CSAD两种常用的关于羊群行为研究的方法。基于横截面绝对偏离度（CSAD）方法并结合APMA—G媪CH模型对上市以来的我国股指期货市场“羊群行为”进行了实证研究,结果表明,我国股指期货市场存在着不显著的羊群行为。我国股指期货上市时间不久,这种轻微的羊群行为应该值得相关部门的关注,可以采取健全和完善股市的信息披露制度、加强股指期货市场监管和风险教育等相关措施,防止羊群行为的进一步扩散。     

Three Estonian Companies' Management of the Russian Boycott During the Summer of 2007

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes three Estonian companies' management of the Russian boycott during the summer of 2007. The explorative nature of the study made a case study methodology a suitable research approach. The respondents' statements about the boycott revealed a “business as usual” attitude. This attitude isaccounted for as a sign of preparation for crises that facilitated the respondent companies' management of the boycott. Also, the sanctions appeared to strengthen the relations between the respondent companies and their Russian partners. The boycott was, therefore, not perceived as a major threat to the respondent companies' businesses in Russia.     

股指期货与股票市场波动性关系的实证研究

以日本的N225指数期货、韩国KOSPI200指数期货和我国台湾地区证交所加权指数(TWSE)期货作为样本,通过GARCH模型的序列建模,从样本总体和分阶段子样本分别对其股指期货推出与股票市场波动性的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,台湾地区的股票市场引入股指期货后现货市场的波动性并未受到影响,而日本和韩国股票市场在引入股指期货之后其波动性加剧,但这种波动性的加剧仅仅是短期性的,长期内并无影响。     

内部资本市场影响上市公司投资行为的实证研究

本文以2001-2009年附属于企业集团的中国上市公司为对象,实证检验了内部资本市场对公司投资行为的影响。结果发现,内部资本市场总体上与上市公司的投资行为存在显著的关联性,并且国有企业内部资本市场一方面会加剧过度投资,另一方面也会对投资不足起到缓解作用,而民营企业的内部资本市场一方面会弱化过度投资问题,另一方面也会导致投资不足变得更加严重,从而表明内部资本市场运作在不同的产权特征下会表现出不一样的经济后果。     

上市公司无形资产的行业特征分析及监管对策

本文对抽样的上市公司(2005-2007年)近三年无形资产行业特征进行了研究分析,提出上市公司应利用证券市场有效地管理、经营无形资产,通过证券市场的放大作用,提升无形资产价值,并进而提高企业价值的监管对策.     

海外上市之德国证券市场股票上市规则研究

中国企业在海外证券市场的上市不仅能够拓宽融资渠道,而且促进了这些企业按照国际市场规则进行经营,也有利于国内企业国际竞争力的增强和海外市场的拓展。但是,企业选择上市地点,涉及上市地法律环境、上市公司自身资质等多种因素。因此,中国企业对海外上市地点的选择,应当综合考虑上市的成功基础、上市成本以及维持挂牌的后期资金和技术成本等,尽量降低发行风险和成本,以期最大可能地取得海外融资成功。     

可转换债券发行的长期股票市场价格绩效研究

应用长期事件研究法,对2000-2004年间发行可转换债券的上市公司的长期市场绩效表现进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,可转债发行前后,可转债标的公司的长期股票价格绩效在绝大多数区间上显著优于行业、规模与权益市值对面值比率的对照组,也显著优于等权加权和总市值加权的综合市场收益率;选择兼有债权和股票期权双重属性的可转债,在一定程度上可以维持标的公司股票价格长期绩效的优良表现。