Household’s optimal mortgage and unsecured loan default decision

How do households make optimal borrowing and default decisions when they have the option to borrow in multiple ways? In this paper, I analyze households’ optimal mortgage and unsecured loan borrowing and default decisions in the context of the recent recession. I model households as able to default on mortgage debt to walk away from capital losses, at the price of foreclosure. However, a household can also default on unsecured debt to maintain its home, in exchange for a longer exclusion from credit markets following default. Depending on the costs of each alternative, financially constrained households exhibit heterogeneity in optimal default decisions.Next, I analyze how mortgage loan modification policies, after a sudden drop in house prices, affect household choices in the mortgage and unsecured loan markets. The quantitative exercise shows that the government-driven mortgage modification program, initiated in 2009, reduces the mortgage default rate by 0.27% points. However, this increases the unsecured loan charge-off rate by 0.66% points.     

中小企业融资出路的法律分析

银行惜贷,造成中小企业前景堪忧.要解决中小企业融资难的问题只有打破银行的垄断,改革目前的金融体制.以法律形式规范民间融资,让更多的金融机构或投资者参与竞争,构建一个多渠道、全方位的融资平台,才能从根本上解决融资难的现状.     

证券化金融创新与次级债危机的道德风险机制

次级按揭贷款及按揭贷款证券化是美国在上世纪80年代两大金融创新.一般认为,引发全球金融动荡的次级按揭贷款危机根源是全球性流动性过剩、过度的融资套利和松弛的风险控制所致.值得关注的是金融创新机制内含的道德风险和自循环机制,并由此对我国按揭贷款市场发展的启迪作用.     

Broker monitoring of premium adequacy: the role of contingent commissions

Contingent commissions, which are payments made by an insurer to brokers based on the volume and profitability of insurance placed with the insurer, have been criticized as damaging to the relationship between the insured and its broker. The argument is made that contingent commission payments encourage brokers to select insurers for their clients based on the potential to earn contingent commissions, rather than on the needs of the insured. We argue that contingent commission payments, which while directly paid by the insurer are ultimately paid by the insured through higher premiums, are beneficial to insureds because they provide an incentive for the broker to place their coverage with an insurer that is charging an adequate premium. We contend that although inadequate premiums are perhaps good for the insured in the short term, in the longer term, inadequate premiums will result in price hikes or coverage restrictions that are harmful to the insureds. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that insurers who pay contingent commissions experience less price fluctuation over the underwriting cycle than insurers who do not pay contingent commissions in the US property and casualty insurance industry.     

Subprime Mortgage Tremors: An International Issue

The subprime mortgage crisis has negatively affected individuals, investors, lenders, and economies worldwide. This paper first examines contributing factors of the crisis: predatory lending, predatory borrowing and mortgage fraud, unethical practices, unregulated mortgage brokers, off-balance-sheet activity, and the infusion of capital from Asia that provided the fuel for subprime mortgage activity to continue. International markets have both suffered from and contributed to the crisis. Legislation that has been enacted or recommended in the U.S. and the European Union is reviewed. We then make recommendations which could begin to restore confidence of consumers and investors worldwide; however, it is clear that laws and regulations must be enacted quickly to correct the situation and bring stability to investment markets.      

社会赞许性的研究现状及展望

自从量表的推广使用以来,社会赞许性反应对量表效度,尤其是对自评量表效度的可能影响一直受到心理学、社会学等领域的关注。社会赞许性作为心理测量中长期研究的一个主题,关于其概念化结构的研究并非完全对立不可调和的,可能有意识和无意识这两方面都被纳入到社会赞许性的概念中了,并且它可能是无意识的类似特质的,就如自我欺骗。关于社会赞许性的未来研究方向,正如Fishe（r2000）所言,＂理论上讲,发展出新的社会赞许性偏差量表将会在该领域引发持续的兴趣。＂     

CPV模型研究产业集群的经济周期性风险

本文在深入分析Creditportfolio View（CPV）模型的原理基础上，利用了现代信用风险KMV模型计算出我国产业集群的违约概率．然后利用CPV模型进行一系列的运算以校验违约概率，最后分析我国产业集群违约概率值的特点。     

认购方式、承销方式与IPO抑价

基于不同的认购方式和承销方式,运用多元线性回归等分析工具对中国A股市场的抑价现象进行了实证研究。结果表明:2002年以来实行的二级市场配售制度能较大程度地降低IPO的抑价率;2005年到目前采用的二级市场配售与上网定价发行相结合的发行方式不仅提高了IPO的抑价率,同时还降低了上市公司的股票发行效率;包销方式下的新股发行费用大于代销方式,代销可在一定程度上提高上市公司的股票发行效率。     

风险投资持股对我国上市企业承销费用的影响研究

本文选取我国股权分置改革后2006—2007年A股市场上市公司的数据,检验了风险投资持股因素对于上市企业承销费用的影响。经过多因素线性回归,发现风险投资持股上市企业的承销费率要显著高于非风险投资持股上市企业,这表明风险投资的认证效应当前在我国并不成立;另一方面,剔除行业的影响,发现风险投资持股上市企业的年龄显著小于非风险投资持股上市企业,说明目前我国风险投资行业存在逐名动机。     

中国机动车辆保险承保周期存在性分析

承保周期反映了承保利润的周期性变动情况，同时这种变动伴随着保费、保险产品供给的周期性波动。在欧美等产险业发达的国家，承保周期现象得到了广泛的研究，但是在中国由于经营机制和数据库建立不完善等问题，至今对承保周期的研究几乎一片空白。本文利用国外学者 Venezaian 提出的二阶自回归模型来检验中国机动车辆保险的周期存在性，经过检验认为机动车辆保险存在承保周期，因而，保险公司、保险监管机关、投资者可以利用承保周期规律来制定更加科学合理的决策。     

VG过程下信用违约互换定价模型的探讨

在信用违约互换价差的定价中,违约概率是一个重要的决定因素,在Variance Gamma过程下得到违约概率密度,通过与Block-scholes模型下违约概率密度相比较,得出Variance Gamma过程下信用违约互换定价模型的优越性。     

上市公司违规行为对违约距离和预期违约率影响的实证研究——兼论KMV模型的修正

基于修正的KMV模型研究表明，上市公司违规行为使股价异常波动造成投资者损失，同时也会使公司资产的市场价值降低，资产价值的波动性增加，从而使得公司的违约距离减小，违约风险增大。公司违规行为给投资者造成的损失与违约距离变化的统计检验显示，两者之间具有较强的相关性，但并不是简单的正相关。     

论住房抵押贷款终止偿付型理性违约

住房抵押贷款债务人不仅会进行提前偿付型理性违约 ,在相关机制不健全时也会进行终止偿付型理性违约。终止偿付型理性违约是指在住房抵押贷款存续期内 ,债务人在自身财务状况正常的情况下 ,因经济理性而从某一时刻起终止继续履行对尚欠贷款本息的偿还责任的违约行为。它发生的客观性在于住房抵押贷款债务人对所购住房损失最小化或收益最大化的财务预期能否顺利实现。建立终止偿付型理性违约发生的条件模型 ,可找出抵押率、贷期、已还款量和已履约时间等变量与条件模型的内在关系 ,进而设计出我国金融机构主动防范终止偿付型理性违约风险的思路。     

美国金融监管改革能够成功吗——基于利益集团视角的分析

美国金融部门自我膨胀,再加上没有进行风险调整的激励机制,导致美国经济过度金融化,是此次金融危机的重要原因。危机发生后,美国采取了一系列措施应对次贷危机,其中最具代表性的是金融监管改革法案。但金融利益集团在金融监管法案通过过程中为了维护自身利益,极力阻挠法案顺利通过。本文认为金融利益集团将会在法案实施过程中继续阻挠法案实施,美国金融监管改革将会虎头蛇尾,难以有效预防下一次金融危机发生。     

Log-concave probability and its applications

Summary. In many applications, assumptions about the log-concavity of a probability distribution allow just enough special structure to yield a workable theory. This paper catalogs a series of theorems relating log-concavity and/or log-convexity of probability density functions, distribution functions, reliability functions, and their integrals. We list a large number of commonly-used probability distributions and report the log-concavity or log-convexity of their density functions and their integrals. We also discuss a variety of applications of log-concavity that have appeared in the literature.Received: 31 December 2003, Revised: 22 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C40, D40, D80. Correspondence to: Ted BergstromWe thank Ken Binmore and Larry Samuelson for encouragement and suggestments.     

企业负责人背景特征与信贷违约行为间关系的实证研究——基于大连地区小企业的信贷数据

选取2001—2012年中国大连地区小企业的信贷数据,采用Logistic回归分析法实证检验了小企业负责人的背景特征与小企业信贷违约行为的关系。结果表明:居住状况、本地居住年限、汽车及不动产价值总额等企业负责人的背景特征与小企业的信贷违约行为显著负相关,即小企业负责人的居住状况越好、本地居住年限越长、汽车及不动产价值总额越大,所管理的小企业越不可能发生信贷违约行为。     

Analysis of the impact of excess mortgages on housing prices using the cointegration test

This article attempts to explain and predict housing prices by constructing a model based on the variables that most influence demand: the theoretical purchase effort index without tax deductions as well as a new and innovative indicator that includes the excess of mortgages granted. The Johansen methodology for cointegration analysis reveals the existence of long-run equilibrium and the model’s subsequent ECM, to verify the statistical significance of the variables, confirms the validity of the model concerning this Spanish case study.     

动产抵押制度之完善初探

科技的突飞猛进和经济的发展使社会财富结构发生了巨大变化,显著表现之一就是动产在财富构成中的比重日益增大.现代工商企业尤其是中小型企业,其资产以动产为主,而这些动产是有别于传统意义上的动产的.为了促进现代企业的成长,应允许其将所拥有之动产作为融资之媒介,进行动产抵押.我国对现行法律法规动产抵押制度的规范,明显不适应现代财富结构的变化,阻碍了信贷市场的良性发展,造成信贷环境紧张,不利于企业成长和经济增长.因此,必须借鉴美、欧等国家的先进经验,对我国现行动产抵押制度进行改造和完善.     

美国金融危机的“腐蚀性”及启示

美国金融危机"腐蚀性"特点主要表现为:危机中受影响的金融机构量大且种类多样,危机的发展是持续渐进的.基于此.本文分析了该特点产生的原因.首先,抵押贷款证券化机制扩大了陷入危机的金融机构范围;其次.证券化产品的复杂性使其风险的暴露是渐进的;最后,美国金融体系运行的杠杆化造成了金融危机的持续演进.