个人住房贷款行为与房贷调控的有效性分析

本文利用成都市房地产交易的微观数据(2004—2006),实证检验了我国房地产信贷政策的变化对微观个体住房贷款决策行为的影响效果。我们发现,地方购房者的贷款决策对中央利率调控有明显反应。实证结果显示:当长期贷款利率升幅较短期贷款利率升幅高0.1百分点时,贷款者选择短期贷款的概率增加8.4个百分点;而且利用商业住房贷款利率和公积金贷款利率变动差异的"自然实验",我们有效控制了可能由宏观政策内生性产生的计量问题,从微观角度为长、短期利率政策的有效性提供了更可靠的实证检验。此外,我们还发现首付比例政策并没有得到地方银行的严格实施。因此,文章建议政府进一步重视利率政策对房地产市场的调整,而包括首付比例等相关政策的实施需加强对地方执行部门监管的力度。     

Household’s optimal mortgage and unsecured loan default decision

How do households make optimal borrowing and default decisions when they have the option to borrow in multiple ways? In this paper, I analyze households’ optimal mortgage and unsecured loan borrowing and default decisions in the context of the recent recession. I model households as able to default on mortgage debt to walk away from capital losses, at the price of foreclosure. However, a household can also default on unsecured debt to maintain its home, in exchange for a longer exclusion from credit markets following default. Depending on the costs of each alternative, financially constrained households exhibit heterogeneity in optimal default decisions.Next, I analyze how mortgage loan modification policies, after a sudden drop in house prices, affect household choices in the mortgage and unsecured loan markets. The quantitative exercise shows that the government-driven mortgage modification program, initiated in 2009, reduces the mortgage default rate by 0.27% points. However, this increases the unsecured loan charge-off rate by 0.66% points.     

我国个人住房按揭贷款制度存在的问题及对策

个人住房按揭贷款业务的开展,在改善我国居民居住条件的同时,也存在一些问题,对此学术界有不少文章进行了分析,但这些文章几乎都是从保护银行的角度出发,对侵犯银行利益的诸如骗贷等行为进行研究,而从保护借款人利益的角度,无论学术界还是实务界都鲜有人进行分析,通过实地调查研究,发现银行在与借款人签订《抵押借款合同》前后,利用垄断地位与格式条款等侵害借款人正当权益。本文从法律与金融两个角度,对我国个人住房按揭贷款制度存在的问题,主要有对按揭贷款的捆绑销售问题,格式合同中剥夺借款人对抵押物的合理使用权、加重借款人的责任与义务、剥夺借款人对争议解决方式的选择权、银行单方面解除合同的随意性过大、以及在贷款类别上设置的缺陷,还款方式上的缺陷,提前还贷上存在法律缺陷等,进行较为深入地剖析,最后得出结论与对策建议：一方面需要修订现行相关法规,加强法律监管;另一方面借款人也需要提高自身的知识水平。     

Evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending

Online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending has emerged recently. This micro loan market could offer certain benefits to both borrowers and lenders. Using data from the Lending Club, which is one of the popular online P2P lending houses, this article explores the P2P loan characteristics, evaluates their credit risk and measures loan performances. We find that credit grade, debt-to-income ratio, FICO score and revolving line utilization play an important role in loan defaults. Loans with lower credit grade and longer duration are associated with high mortality rate. The result is consistent with the Cox Proportional Hazard test which suggests that the hazard rate or the likelihood of the loan default increases with the credit risk of the borrowers. Finally, we find that higher interest rates charged on the high-risk borrowers are not enough to compensate for higher probability of the loan default. The Lending Club must find ways to attract high FICO score and high-income borrowers in order to sustain their businesses.     

贷款证券化、道德风险与监管缺失

美国自20世纪70年代开始发展抵押贷款证券化业务以来,在住房抵押贷款市场上很好地解决了放款机构资金来源约束和流动性约束问题,保证了放款机构的资本充足率,转移了信用风险,扩大了贷款规模,推动了整个社会GDP的增长.然而,次级贷款危机的爆发使证券化所存在的风险和对金融体系稳定的影响成为一个备受关注的课题.我国贷款证券化业务尚处于起步阶段,研究美国较为成熟的抵押贷款证券化运作中的经验与教训,对完善我国证券化改革具有重要的理论和实践意义.     

Gender in banking and mortgage behavior

Compared to men, women, even financial professionals, exhibit higher risk aversion. We exploit random assignment of clients to banking advisors (‘private bankers’) in a large Czech bank to study the effects of advisor gender on the probability of mortgage issuance and on the probability that a newly issued mortgage is insured, which we interpret as corresponding to risk averse mortgage behaviour. Male advisors do not substantially affect the chances that their clients will take a new mortgage. However, the mortgages that they issue are dramatically less likely to be insured, particularly so for female clients who never had an insured loan with the bank.     

Predictors of microcredit default in Indian self‐help groups

This exploratory study was conducted to examine the reasons behind credit defaults in Self‐help Group‐based microfinance programs in India. The study adopted the mixed‐method approach. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted to collect information, and thematic analysis was followed to analyze data to identify the possible causes of loan defaults in self‐help groups (SHGs). Further, 120 defaulting and 120 performing SHGs were selected through stratified random sampling method. Finally, 960 respondents were randomly selected from 240 SHGs to collect information for quantitative inquiry. The ordinary least square (OLS) and probit models were engaged to process the data. This study identified three important attribution sets causing credit defaults, (i) bank‐related attributes, (ii) agency related attributes, and (iii) group dynamics. The probability of defaults in SHGs was predicted by the amount of loan disbursed by bank, agency's help in enterprise development, age of the microenterprise, microentrepreneurship of the SHG member, SHG visits to the bank, members dropped out from SHG, tenure of the president and secretary, and monthly membership saving in the SHG.     

The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity

We analyse the predictive content of the mortgage spread for US economic activity. We find that the spread contains predictive power for real GDP and industrial production. Furthermore, it outperforms the term spread and Gilchrist–Zakraj?ek credit spread in a real-time forecasting exercise. However, the predictive ability of the mortgage spread varies over time.     

Race in relation to bank depositors and mortgage applications

Data associated with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) are often studied for evidence of discrimination in terms of minority applicants or for home location in minority neighborhoods, with mixed results. The present analysis utilizes a data set covering 2014–2016, combining characteristics of home location and applicants from the HMDA data with information on depositor characteristics from the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation's Summary of Deposits data and the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Consistent with predictions from the red-lining literature, loan acceptance rates are adversely influenced by high minority locations, although the effect is larger for minority applicants. The relationship banking literature predicts that community banks will yield higher rates of loan acceptance, and the results support that hypothesis. That same literature suggests that familiarity in terms of similar race/ethnicity characteristics for depositors and home location or loan applicants will yield a loan acceptance advantage; and that hypothesis is not supported. Subsidiary analyses suggest that market competition improves loan acceptance rates for minority applicants, consistent with models of discrimination. Additionally, minority depositors are associated positively with loan acceptance rates, which may reflect higher levels of bank risk, and a risk premium, in those markets.     

西部民族金融发展状况及问题分析——以秀山县为例

以秀山县为例,采用金融发展指标研究发现,西部民族地区存在金融发展总体水平、存款形成能力远低于本地域一般水平、贷差逐渐消失、资金大量外流、贷款自给能力由弱到强发展等状况,探讨了民族地区金融发展问题,并提出相应的政策建议。     

The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice

The objective of this paper is to understand how loan structure affects (i) the borrower's selection of a mortgage contract and (ii) the aggregate economy. We develop a quantitative equilibrium theory of mortgage choice where households can choose from a menu of long-term (nominal) mortgage loans. The model accounts for observed patterns in housing consumption, ownership, and portfolio allocations. We find that the loan structure is a quantitatively significant factor in a household's housing finance decision. The model suggests that the mortgage structure preferred by a household is dependent on age and income and that loan products with low initial payments offer an alternative to mortgages with no downpayment. These effects are more important when inflation is low. The presence of inflation reduces the real value of the mortgage payment and the outstanding loan over time reducing mobility. Changes in the structure of mortgages have implications for risk sharing.     

The Alleged Value Neutrality of Economics: An Alternative View

This paper analyzes bank lending activities for owner-occupied housing loan extensions to minority members of Mississippi’s population. We analyze data on housing loan applications and accessibility patterns among the minority Black population relative to the majority White population groups in the State. The study looks hard at data for evidence of any patterns of discrimination toward minority housing loan applicants. And a Probit model is applied to examine the relative importance of economic variables (such as employment status, income level, and credit rating) versus noneconomic parameters (such as geographical location) in the housing loan decision making of banks toward minority borrowers. The evidence from our comparative data analysis suggests that there is a consistently high denial rates for minorities, which is not explained by financial (economic) factors. The formal test of discrimination with the Probit analysis also indicates some evidence of discrimination from, at least, the standpoint of redlining practices, albeit only with a modest predictive power.     

A ridge bootstrap method for analyzing APT effects on the mortgage loan market

Significantly positive asymmetric price transmission (APT) effects are concluded on the Swedish mortgage loan market. This finding was established based on unique banking data in combination with our newly developed econometric method which is insensitive to the banks' variations in liquidity and capital costs. It is established that there is a higher propensity for the bank to rapidly and systematically increase its fixed mortgage interest rates for customers subsequently to an increase in its borrowing costs, compared with the propensity for the bank to decrease its customers' mortgage rates subsequently to a corresponding borrowing cost decrease.     

浅谈商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险防范

商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险主要有：以设定抵押后建的设施扩大贷款、以划拨土地抵押贷款、以预售商品房和在建工程抵押贷款和以亏损企业财产贷款。防范此类贷款风险的措施主要有：明确抵押物的法定范围、规范土地使用权抵押操作等。     

The Impact of Treasury Yields on US Presidential Approval, 1960–2010

ABSTRACT

The ‘power of bond markets’ is a widely assumed and poorly understood feature of the global economy. We demonstrate that even in a bond market as stable as the United States this influence is considerable. In this article, we scrutinise a particularly direct influence, the impact of US Treasury yields on presidential approval rates. Our empirical analysis from 1961 to 2010 demonstrates that rising/falling bond yields lead to a decline/increase in approval rates. We show that this impact is mediated via the US mortgage market. The stronger the rise in mortgage rates, the stronger the influence of Treasury yields on presidential approval. We then outline the broader possible political impacts of this, particularly given foreign and domestic central bank ownership of US Treasuries.     

Subprime Mortgage Tremors: An International Issue

The subprime mortgage crisis has negatively affected individuals, investors, lenders, and economies worldwide. This paper first examines contributing factors of the crisis: predatory lending, predatory borrowing and mortgage fraud, unethical practices, unregulated mortgage brokers, off-balance-sheet activity, and the infusion of capital from Asia that provided the fuel for subprime mortgage activity to continue. International markets have both suffered from and contributed to the crisis. Legislation that has been enacted or recommended in the U.S. and the European Union is reviewed. We then make recommendations which could begin to restore confidence of consumers and investors worldwide; however, it is clear that laws and regulations must be enacted quickly to correct the situation and bring stability to investment markets.      

住房抵押贷款的违约风险分析

本文运用期权数值方法分析住房抵押贷款借款者的违约行为,主要是分析抵押贷款违约期权的最优实施边界。这使得我们能够解释哪些房价和利率组合会引发借款者违约以及未来的违约概率。我们发现导致违约的房产价格高度依赖于同期市场利率,而且违约与贷款类型高度相关。我们考察了次优出售和再融资的情形,还考察了借款者面临违约声誉损失的情形,结果表明期权数值方法是稳健可靠的。本文的分析还使我们对美国次贷危机有更为客观理性的认识。     

Race,Gender, and Familial Status: Discrimination in One US Mortgage Lending Market

This paper, using data from the 1992 Boston Federal Reserve study of mortgage lending, reports preliminary evidence of patterns of gender and familial status discrimination that differ markedly by race in the US. White couples with children experienced familial status discrimination if the female partner was in the labor market, but not if she was at home raising her children. However, African-American or Hispanic couples with children suffered familial status discrimination if she stayed home to raise her children, but much less so, if at all, if she was in the labor market. This pattern of racial differentiation may reflect social norms dating back to slavery that have favored labor force participation for African-American and Hispanic mothers but not white mothers. On the other hand, it was true across racial groups that single women, more than single men, were disadvantaged in the mortgage market by children.     

次贷危机下对我国商业银行房贷业务的思考

2007年美国次贷危机的爆发使美国金融界受到了一次极大的震荡,甚至可以说是行业“洗牌”,许多银行和投资银行都受到影响。我国商业银行在房贷业务上也有同美国住宅抵押贷款业务同样的风险,如信用风险突出、放贷机构低估住房抵押贷款风险等。因此,我们应吸取此次危机的教训,金融机构应增强审慎经营管理的意识,加强风险管理,加快住房抵押贷款证券化进程。     

Ethnic patterns of returns to education in Bulgaria

It is widely accepted that disparities in education contribute to the poor labour market outcomes experienced by ethnic minority groups and consequently to their poverty. In this article, I analyse differential educational benefits in Bulgaria and compare returns to education for the Roma minority with the majority population and the Turkish minority. I show that both ethnic minority groups have lower education levels and employment rates than the majority population and that they also have lower returns to education. This result could be related to minorities' lower education quality as well as to discrimination in the labour market. Integration policies should thus aim to improve employability and labour market competence of vulnerable groups starting from school.