Measuring central bank independence: a latent variables approach

We argue that central bank independence (CBI) is a latent variable of which the various existing quantifications are imperfect indicators. We show how factor analysis techniques can be employed to assess the quality of the various indicators, and how an optimal weighting of the indicators can be obtained that gives the best approximation of CBI. We also show how these results can be utilized in models in which CBI is an explanatory variable. In contrast to the well‐known study of Campillo and Miron (1997) , we find that our CBI indicator is significantly related to inflation, also when various control variables are included.     

Actual monetary policy independence in a small open economy: the Polish perspective

Empirical Economics - The aim of this article is to examine the actual degree of monetary policy independence in a small open economy with floating exchange rate that is integrated with the world...     

Hoarding of international reserves: It's a neighbourly day in Asia

To explain why Asian countries seem to have been hoarding international reserves, especially since the 1997 crisis, we consider various regional neighbourhood effects. One such effect is that of “catching up with the Joneses”. We revisit that effect by analysing several refinements of it. We also consider the fear of the kind of contagion that the crisis‐hit countries saw in 1997. Finally, we look at the possibility of a regional financial cycle, in which the conditions that led to the crisis might have been correlated across countries. We find that refining the Joneses effect to take account of trade links strengthens its power to explain the build‐up of reserves. We also observe that a country that finds itself more vulnerable than its regional neighbours would tend to accumulate more reserves. Finally, we find that a common regional factor related to current‐account balances spurs further reserve accumulation. Contrary to previous analyses, our results suggest that only a couple of Asian countries have been holding excessive reserves. Some were actually holding less reserves than would be optimal in the presence of neighbourhood effects.     

The subjective well-being of workfare participants: insights from a day reconstruction survey

In this article, we shed more light on the subjective well-being of workfare participants and compare it to the well-being of unemployed and employed workers. We use data from a self-conducted survey among participants in workfare schemes in Germany. We examine two subdimensions of subjective well-being – life satisfaction and emotional well-being – separately to obtain a more comprehensive view of the subjective well-being of workfare participants. Our results show that the life satisfaction of people in this group is between that of employed and unemployed people. In contrast, their emotional well-being is the highest of these three groups.     

构建和谐社会的哲学思考

文章阐述了中国古代对和谐社会的诠释,分析了构建和谐社会的原因,同时对哲学在现实社会中应发挥的作用进行了探讨。     

Impact evaluation of multiple overlapping programs under a conditional independence assumption

Under the assumption on conditional independence between potential outcomes and program assignment, program impacts measured by the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and the Average Treatment Effect on Treated (ATT) can be identified and estimated using cross-section regression or propensity score matching (PSM). Traditional impact literature often deals with the impact evaluation of a single program. In reality, one can participate in several programs simultaneously and the programs may be correlated. This paper discusses cross-section regression and PSM methods in this general context. It is shown that under the PSM method, impact of a program of interest can be measured as a weighted average of program impacts on groups with different program statuses. Estimation of impacts of multiple overlapping programs is illustrated using Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical example of impact measurement of international and internal remittances in Vietnam.     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

Obtaining a reliable estimate of the upper limit of the market share that a technology can capture is a major limitation in forecasting the diffusion of new technologies. This paper offers a decision-modeling approach to estimate this upper limit. The approach requires the prospective adopter's value judgments about various decision factors that affect the technology. The approach can be incorporated in any forecasting/substitution model that uses an upper limit. A real world application of the approach is included, dealing with the diffusion of Longwall Mining technologies in the United States. Some extensions of the basic approach are also discussed.     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

The problem considered is that of aiding large, technically unsophisticated groups to make quantitative policy decisions in real time in one sitting. Utility theory approaches, as well as Delphi and cross-impact matrices are discussed. The application of computer technology to such decision making situations is considered and the results of implementing such technology with several groups is discussed.     

Understanding the culture of markets: A reflection

This essay examines Virgil Storr’s (2013) Understanding the Culture of Markets, particularly the relationship between cultures and constitutions and the particulars of the ideal-typical ‘spirit’ of capitalism. Culture cannot be viewed as a constitution, I argue, because of fundamental differences between the two types of guidance to conduct, both for the actors within them and the researchers studying them. I also consider possibly conflicting interpretations of the idea of the animating spirit(s) of a market in the context of Storr’s example of the economic culture of the Bahamas.     

Regulatory independence and thermal power plant performance: evidence from India

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We examine the role of regulatory independence on electricity generation performance in India. Electricity generation in India is exposed to several regulatory...     

A day without a search engine: an experimental study of online and offline searches

With the evolution of the Web and development of web-based search engines, online searching has become a common method for obtaining information. Given this popularity, the question arises as to how much time people save by using search engines for their information needs compared to offline sources, as well as how online searching affects both search experiences and search outcomes. Using a random sample of queries from a major search engine and a sample of reference questions from the Internet Public Library (IPL), we conduct a real-effort experiment to compare online and offline search experiences and outcomes. We find that participants are significantly more likely to find an answer on the Web (100 %), compared to offline searching (between 87 % and 90 %). Restricting our analysis to the set of questions in which participants find answers in both treatments, a Web search takes on average 7 (9) minutes, whereas the corresponding offline search takes 22 (19) minutes for a search-engine (IPL) question. Furthermore, while raters judge library sources to be significantly more trustworthy and authoritative than the corresponding Web sources, they judge Web sources as significantly more relevant. Balancing all factors, we find that the overall source quality is not significantly different between the two treatments for the set of search-engine questions. However, for IPL questions, we find that non-Web sources are judged to have significantly higher overall quality than the corresponding Web sources. In comparison, for factual questions, Web search results are significantly more likely to be correct (66 % vs. 43 %). Lastly, post-search questionnaires reveal that participants find online searching more enjoyable than offline searching.     

An axiomatic characterization of preferences under uncertainty: Weakening the independence axiom

The independence axiom used to derive the expected utility representation of preferences over lotteries is replaced by requiring only convexity, in terms of probability mixtures, of indifference sets. Two axiomatic characterizations are proven, one for simple measures and the other continuous and for all probability measures. The representations are structurally similar to expected utility, and are unique up to a generalization of affine transformations. First-order stochastic dominance and risk aversion are discussed using a method which finds an expected utility approximation to these preferences without requiring differentiability of the preference functional.     

The powers that are: central bank independence in the Greenspan era

This paper investigates political pressure from incumbent Presidents and Congress on US monetary policy during the period that Greenspan was the chairman of the Federal Reserve. We propose an expectations-augmented Taylor rule in which we replace realized values with expectations, and use the unemployment gap instead of the output gap. We apply a state-space framework that allows the use of mixed frequency data. Our findings suggest that the Federal Reserve under Greenspan did not create election driven cycles, but also did not strictly follow the Taylor rule. The deviations from the Taylor rule are not driven by partisan politics, but are rooted in the expected economic conditions.     

入世后,我国零售企业如何突出重围

入世后 ,零售商业领域的对外开放日益加大。随着更多外资的大举进入 ,对国内零售企业产生巨大冲击 ,同时也带来新的发展机会。面对挑战与机遇 ,我国零售企业应积极采取相应对策 ,在竞争中不断发展壮大。     

Inflation before and after central bank independence: The case of Colombia

In this paper we model the Colombian inflation rate in terms of excess demand effects from asset, goods and factor markets. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economies, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. The paper pays particular attention to the potential effects of the Constitutional Reform of 1991, which created a Central Bank independent from other parts of government. We find that the creation of an independent Central Bank did change some of the parameters of the model, as the disequilibria in goods and monetary markets were found to have a smaller effect on inflation after Central Bank independence was granted.     

Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day

Macroeconomics inevitably begins with a trend‐cycle decomposition of a nation's output. We propose a decomposition in which consumption is the trend component and savings is the cycle component. Using data from the G‐7 plus Australia, we show that this decomposition identifies international business cycles that are: (i) more volatile, (ii) of longer mean duration and (iii) less correlated across countries than the cycle component from the Hodrick‐Prescott filter. We argue that this difference stems from the fact that our method imposes a basic theoretical restriction arising from the permanent income hypothesis similar to the restriction used in Cochrane's ( 1994 ) decomposition.