Measuring central bank independence: a latent variables approach

We argue that central bank independence (CBI) is a latent variable of which the various existing quantifications are imperfect indicators. We show how factor analysis techniques can be employed to assess the quality of the various indicators, and how an optimal weighting of the indicators can be obtained that gives the best approximation of CBI. We also show how these results can be utilized in models in which CBI is an explanatory variable. In contrast to the well‐known study of Campillo and Miron (1997) , we find that our CBI indicator is significantly related to inflation, also when various control variables are included.     

Actual monetary policy independence in a small open economy: the Polish perspective

Empirical Economics - The aim of this article is to examine the actual degree of monetary policy independence in a small open economy with floating exchange rate that is integrated with the world...     

The subjective well-being of workfare participants: insights from a day reconstruction survey

In this article, we shed more light on the subjective well-being of workfare participants and compare it to the well-being of unemployed and employed workers. We use data from a self-conducted survey among participants in workfare schemes in Germany. We examine two subdimensions of subjective well-being – life satisfaction and emotional well-being – separately to obtain a more comprehensive view of the subjective well-being of workfare participants. Our results show that the life satisfaction of people in this group is between that of employed and unemployed people. In contrast, their emotional well-being is the highest of these three groups.     

Impact evaluation of multiple overlapping programs under a conditional independence assumption

Under the assumption on conditional independence between potential outcomes and program assignment, program impacts measured by the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and the Average Treatment Effect on Treated (ATT) can be identified and estimated using cross-section regression or propensity score matching (PSM). Traditional impact literature often deals with the impact evaluation of a single program. In reality, one can participate in several programs simultaneously and the programs may be correlated. This paper discusses cross-section regression and PSM methods in this general context. It is shown that under the PSM method, impact of a program of interest can be measured as a weighted average of program impacts on groups with different program statuses. Estimation of impacts of multiple overlapping programs is illustrated using Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical example of impact measurement of international and internal remittances in Vietnam.     

Understanding the culture of markets: A reflection

This essay examines Virgil Storr’s (2013) Understanding the Culture of Markets, particularly the relationship between cultures and constitutions and the particulars of the ideal-typical ‘spirit’ of capitalism. Culture cannot be viewed as a constitution, I argue, because of fundamental differences between the two types of guidance to conduct, both for the actors within them and the researchers studying them. I also consider possibly conflicting interpretations of the idea of the animating spirit(s) of a market in the context of Storr’s example of the economic culture of the Bahamas.     

Regulatory independence and thermal power plant performance: evidence from India

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We examine the role of regulatory independence on electricity generation performance in India. Electricity generation in India is exposed to several regulatory...     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

The problem considered is that of aiding large, technically unsophisticated groups to make quantitative policy decisions in real time in one sitting. Utility theory approaches, as well as Delphi and cross-impact matrices are discussed. The application of computer technology to such decision making situations is considered and the results of implementing such technology with several groups is discussed.     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

Obtaining a reliable estimate of the upper limit of the market share that a technology can capture is a major limitation in forecasting the diffusion of new technologies. This paper offers a decision-modeling approach to estimate this upper limit. The approach requires the prospective adopter's value judgments about various decision factors that affect the technology. The approach can be incorporated in any forecasting/substitution model that uses an upper limit. A real world application of the approach is included, dealing with the diffusion of Longwall Mining technologies in the United States. Some extensions of the basic approach are also discussed.     

A day without a search engine: an experimental study of online and offline searches

With the evolution of the Web and development of web-based search engines, online searching has become a common method for obtaining information. Given this popularity, the question arises as to how much time people save by using search engines for their information needs compared to offline sources, as well as how online searching affects both search experiences and search outcomes. Using a random sample of queries from a major search engine and a sample of reference questions from the Internet Public Library (IPL), we conduct a real-effort experiment to compare online and offline search experiences and outcomes. We find that participants are significantly more likely to find an answer on the Web (100 %), compared to offline searching (between 87 % and 90 %). Restricting our analysis to the set of questions in which participants find answers in both treatments, a Web search takes on average 7 (9) minutes, whereas the corresponding offline search takes 22 (19) minutes for a search-engine (IPL) question. Furthermore, while raters judge library sources to be significantly more trustworthy and authoritative than the corresponding Web sources, they judge Web sources as significantly more relevant. Balancing all factors, we find that the overall source quality is not significantly different between the two treatments for the set of search-engine questions. However, for IPL questions, we find that non-Web sources are judged to have significantly higher overall quality than the corresponding Web sources. In comparison, for factual questions, Web search results are significantly more likely to be correct (66 % vs. 43 %). Lastly, post-search questionnaires reveal that participants find online searching more enjoyable than offline searching.     

入世后,我国零售企业如何突出重围

入世后 ,零售商业领域的对外开放日益加大。随着更多外资的大举进入 ,对国内零售企业产生巨大冲击 ,同时也带来新的发展机会。面对挑战与机遇 ,我国零售企业应积极采取相应对策 ,在竞争中不断发展壮大。     

On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve

We shed some new light on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship, where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve. In contrast to most of the literature on the EKC, we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long-run data (Swedish sulfur emission, covering the period 1900–2002). Furthermore, we test and date structural change. The model suggests four regimes, 1900–1918, 1919–1933, 1934–1967 and 1968–2002, generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time. The policy-conclusions are consonant with Pearce’s general view about the EKC: there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted U shape, nor should any country try to “grow out of the environmental problems” without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing.     

Central Bank independence: Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise

The independent nature of the Central Bank is often associated with achieving low and stable inflation. Further to that the merits of independence are stretched to achieving low(er) output variability when compared to a government run monetary policy. In this paper we use the Alesina (1989) and Alesina and Gatti (1995) model to examine how often an Independent Central Bank can achieve an improvement on both counts. To do that we run numerical simulations where we change the ex ante probability of elections (and hence the degree of electoral uncertainty) with a view to determining how the private sector’s perceptions affect the level of output variability. Our conclusions agree with the Alesina and Gatti assertion that there will exist occasions when all political parties will be better off by consenting to the running of monetary policy by an independent institution but more often than not this comes at some cost to output. On theoretical grounds therefore, the trade-off between inflation and output variability (à la Rogoff) is still a valid one.     

经济虚拟化与虚拟经济的独立性特征研究--虚拟经济与实体经济关系的动态化过程

本文运用动态相关多元GARCH模型研究了1919年至2004年虚拟经济与实体经济相关性的时变特征。结果发现，虚拟经济与实体经济的相关性存在着明显的时变特征，具体表现为一个经济虚拟化的过程：二战前实体经济与虚拟经济存在着明显的相关性，随后呈现一个逐渐递减的趋势，在20世纪80年代后，虚拟经济表现出明显的独立性特征，经济运行方式与之前存在显著的差异，虚拟经济与实体经济呈两个相对独立的经济系统而存在，从而验证了经济虚拟化之后，虚拟经济作为与实体经济相对的经济系统的相对独立性特征。     

Efficient tests for normality,homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals: Monte Carlo Evidence

In this paper we study the performance of various tests for normality (N), homoscedasticity (H) and serial independence (I) of regression residuals (u) under one, two and three directional departures from H_O:u～NHI.     

Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.