The Effect of Variation in High-level Domestic Drug Enforcement on Variation in Drug Prices

A primary goal of high-level domestic drug enforcement is to raise retail prices in the hope that this will, in turn, reduce consumption. Analyzing data from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration shows that there is no Granger-casual relationship between changes in enforcement and changes in cocaine and heroin prices except when enforcement is measured in terms of numbers of seizures. Even in the case, enforcement is not found to increase retail prices. Instead, evidence is found of a negative relationship. Why there might be such a negative relationship deserves further exploration.     

Private law enforcement with competing groups

This paper introduces groups that are in conflict against each other in law enforcement policy. These groups can have an effect on the process of law enforcement by making upfront investments, such as bribes. We also investigate consequences when a policy maker acts to maximize a bribe instead of social welfare. Thus, this paper presents an inclusive framework for incorporating private law enforcement, corruption and avoidance activities. This article shows that this competition can lead to moderate and more efficient law enforcement activities. This indicates that inefficient law enforcement by authority with harm reduction motivation can be avoided. Additionally, this paper shows that depending on the policy maker’s objection between rent-seeking motivation or social welfare maximizer, deterrence effects vary. This paper provides a clear mechanism that the rent-seeking motivated policy maker tends to set less severe enforcement policies than the social welfare level.     

A sequential model for cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper develops a sequential decision-making model for assisting law enforcement officials in allocating resources during a crackdown operation on illicit drug markets. The sequential crackdown model (SCM) considers a probabilistic framework, where the probability of incarceration of a dealer and the probability of dealing are modeled as a function of the size of a drug market, crackdown enforcement level, drug dealer's financial hardship, and other market characteristics.The model was developed and tested in consultation with enforcement officials from Philadelphia, PA and Camden, NJ. We present a detailed, step-by-step implementation scheme for updating parameters on each day of the crackdown. Parameter estimation along with examples of model usage is provided. Through these examples, we illustrate how the SCM could be helpful in understanding the response of illicit drug markets to various enforcement strategies. We further show conditions under which an alternating crackdown policy (referred to as a crackdown-backoff) or a consistent use of maximum possible enforcement would be optimal strategies for managing a drug crackdown operation. Within the context of the model and parameter estimates, we show that a much quicker and less costly collapse could be implemented if the available enforcement resources are increased. Finally, the model provides possible conditions under which a crackdown operation would be unsuccessful in eliminating a drug market.     

Is High Inflation Here to Stay in the UK?

The first decade of monetary policy independence saw a period of low and stable inflation, but over the past six years this has given way to higher, and more volatile, inflation. The increase in inflation rates has both external and domestic origins. Higher commodity prices, in particular food, and rising prices of manufactured goods imported from emerging markets have been important. In both cases the sharp depreciation of the pound in the aftermath of the financial crisis has compounded the impact on the UK. There has also been a marked step upwards in domestic inflationary pressures which has largely come from administered & regulated prices, such as domestic energy prices and university tuition fees. These categories account for just 10% of the inflation basket, but over the past six years they have contributed 0.9ppts to an average CPI inflation rate of 3.1%…     

Licensing and innovation with imperfect contract enforcement

Licensing promotes technology transfer and innovation, but enforcement of licensing contracts is often imperfect. We model contract enforcement as a game with perfect information but probabilistic enforcement and explore the implications of weak enforcement on the design of licensing contracts, the conduct of firms, and market performance. An upstream firm develops a technology that it can license to downstream firms using a fixed fee and a per‐unit royalty. Strictly positive per‐unit royalties maximize the licensor's profit if competition among licensees limits joint profits. With imperfect enforcement, the licensor lowers variable royalties to avoid cheating. Although imperfect contract enforcement reduces the profits of the licensor, weak enforcement lowers prices, increases downstream innovation, and in some circumstances can increase total economic welfare.     

INTEGRATING A HOUSEHOLD DEMAND SYSTEM IN THE INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORK. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND MODELLING IMPLICATIONS

In this paper we argue that an accurate representation of household consumption behaviour is central to the analysis and comparison of policy interventions addressing sustainable consumption. Therefore, we propose to extend an input–output model with a specific household consumption model, at the core of which is a system of equations explaining the allocation of the households' overall expenditure across different purposes, such as buying food, the consumption of fuel for heating or electricity for cooling, education of children or travelling in terms of total expenditure and relative prices. This paper shows that the integration of a specific module for household consumption in a standard input–output model is an improvement for the analysis of the policies aimed at altering consumer behaviour.     

危险货物道路运输路面执法及智能执法终端设计

在交通运输综合执法改革的大背景下,各地交通运输主管部门在危险货物道路运输路面执法过程中,面临专业水平不足、执法过程不规范等问题,不会管、不敢管、不愿管的现象突出。通过整理现行政策法规,梳理危险货物道路运输路面执法重点内容清单,同时借助信息化手段开发智能执法终端设备,辅助提升路面执法规范化、专业化水平。     

The behaviour of U.K. export prices of manufactured goods 1970–1983

This paper examines the importance of expectations in the determination of U.K. export prices. Export prices are found to depend upon expectations of total domestic unit costs and foreign prices. The non-linear restrictions implied by the forward-looking model are found to hold and it performs adequately relative to a backward-looking error feedback model. The law of one price is rejected and the evidence is consistent with imperfect competition in export markets.     

网站隐私权政策评价指标体系研究

国内的绝大多数网站上公布了其与隐私权相关的政策,但这些政策完善程度及优劣缺乏相应的评价模型及方法,用户无法根据网站的隐私权政策进行网站的使用选择。因此,本文结合相关文献、法律规定和实践,利用层次分析法构建了一个对网站隐私权政策进行评价的指标体系,为网络用户的评价提供依据。     

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN URUGUAY

Using input–output analysis, we identify the key sectors in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Uruguayan economy. The responsibilities of each sector in terms of its emissions are decomposed into an own component, generated during the activities of the sector, and an indirect component, generated by the induced activities in other sectors. This has important implications for the design of mitigation polices, as the appropriate policy measures are contingent on the nature of the pollution. Technical improvements and best practices are effective only when applied to directly polluting sectors, while demand policies may be more appropriate for indirectly polluting sectors. In addition, we analyze pollution generated during the production of exports. The results show that demand policies are going to be effective in the Building, the Hotel and restaurants, and the Wholesale and retail trade; and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sectors. These policies complement GHG emissions’ mitigation policies in directly polluting sectors (mainly the Cattle farming and the transport-related sectors). Finally, methane and nitrous oxide emissions are mainly the consequence of production for exports, while carbon dioxide emissions are mainly driven by production for domestic consumption.     

The impact of monetary policy in the midst of big shocks

This paper studies the impact of Federal Reserve policies that created the largest deviations from price stability during the Fed׳s first 100 years: the post-World War I deflation, the deflation of the Great Depression, the inflation of World War II, and the Great Inflation of the 1970s. In terms of their macroeconomic impacts, I find that deflation was uniquely depressing in the 1930s because of cartel policies that prevented nominal prices and wages from adjusting to clear markets, and not because deflation is generically depressing. I find that the biggest impact of monetary policy during World War II was in debasing debt through inflation. I find that the main drivers of the 1970s economy were long-run changes in productivity and the labor market, and that there may have been little that the Fed could have done at this time to expand employment and output. More broadly, I find that macroeconomic performance would have been better over the Fed׳s first century had the Fed followed a monetary policy to deliver stable prices.     

财政政策传导的阶段性与中国财政政策的效力分析

文章以财政政策传导的阶段性为切入点,集中探讨了中国财政政策的效力状况。在此基础上,立足于传导阶段性的分析框架,剖析了中国财政政策执行效力弱化的原因,就提高财政政策的效力提出了基本观点。     

Asset values and the sustainability of peace prospects

Continuous violent conflict is a central cause of economic stagnation in many of the world's poorest countries. Given that attempts to achieve peace in these countries often remain elusive, it is important to identify mechanisms which reveal the sustainability of peace over time. We argue that long-term financial asset values reflect the sustainability of peace prospects because the expectation of continued peace will result in higher long-term asset prices. Equity index prices from Sri Lanka are used to test this theory. Also considered are the accuracy of equity prices versus other predictors of sustainable peace, including exchange rates and survey responses. The main conclusion is that long-term financial asset prices indicate the likelihood of conflict or peace and can inform policies as they relate to conflict-torn areas.     

刺激消费的财政补贴真能拯救企业吗? ——来自家电下乡政策的证据

在中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情的背景下,中国要逐步形成国内大循环为主的发展格局,这就需要增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用.基于此,本文考察刺激消费的财政补贴对企业的影响,利用2007年开始的家电下乡政策和来自中国工业企业数据库的数据,运用倍差法估计其对企业的影响.研究结果表明该政策对企业的生产和销售并未产生显著影响,但是显示该政策显著提升了企业盈利,且该增加是通过提价来实现的.这表明类似政策的出台需要更多的权衡.     

在华外资企业的出口倾向与出口强度研究

本文针对2007年中国5万余家规模以上外资企业的数据,使用赫克曼(Heckman)选择模型,分析了在华外资企业的出口决策。结果表明,对外企的出口倾向和出口强度有显著影响的因素包括外资股权占比、生产成本、销售成本、行业特征、企业规模等。由于要素的流动性等原因,外企使用的生产要素的价格在不同省份间并没有太大的差别,对国内、外市场接近度的影响更重要。     

浅谈如何在贫困山区开展消防执法工作

文章结合在贫困山区开展消防监督执法工作的经验,针对标准更高、处罚更严的新《消防法》及其配套法律法规的颁布实行与贫困山区经济发展相对落后、消防基础设施薄弱、单位经营普遍困难、公民法律意识不强之间的矛盾,提出日常加强法律法规宣传、执法时做好思想工作、执法后悉心帮扶、注重部门联动发挥执法最大效力4点对策。     

剔除通胀因素后中国人均消费支出的实证分析

根据一般消费理论,收入和价格是决定消费两个主要因素。根据1980-2006年我国消费样本数据建立了我国消费模型,通过EVIEWS软件利用OLS方法进行参数估计,并对模型进行了检验。经过计量分析得知我国人均消费水平受GDP影响,且人均消费水平与人均CGDP呈明显线性关系。若我国人均GDP增长1%,则人均居民消费水平约增加0.71%。滞后的人均消费水平对我国当年的人均消费水平的影响是不显著的。     

Frequent probabilistic punishment in law enforcement

Timing and frequency of punishment are critical elements in law enforcement. Previous studies suggest the superiority of immediate punishment schemes over delayed punishment, as well as the importance of frequent punishment. Yet law enforcement schemes which utilize both frequent and immediate punishment are often cost prohibitive. In this work, we propose the “bad lottery immediate punishment” as an effective substitute to immediate punishment. This is a punishment mechanism that signals immediately to an offender that his violation has been spotted, but the actual penalty is delayed and probabilistic. We discuss implications in law enforcement, where probabilistic punishment is potentially more cost effective. Received: May 2000 / Acccepted: December 2000     

On the Economics and the Politics of Environmental Protection

A bstract . TWO loci of discussion respecting national policies for environmental protection are synthesized. Most economic discussions are couched in terms of analytical measurements of the social benefits and costs of different policies. But most political science discussions are couched in terms of the procedural obstacles to implementation erected by special interest groups. The standard tool of marginal cost/benefit analysis is applied to reveal how the redistribution of real income among distinct special interest groups determines the extent to which those groups align themselves politically. Many of the apparent conflicts among policy objectives in the area of environmental protection, full employment , and an acceptable distribution of income , can be mitigated by means of a carefully designed program of selective law enforcement and tax-financed subsidies.     

我国大众体育消费:理论探源、制约因素与实施策略

全面激励大众消费是构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环新发展格局的内在驱动力。本文采用理论分析、逻辑分析方法对当前大众体育消费的理论基础及制约因素进行研究。研究表明:当前,我国体育产品或服务供给力不足、体育消费税制体系激励缺位、微观主体税负沉重、政府调控政策落实不到位等制约了大众体育消费。激励大众体育消费不仅需要政府规制和宏观调控政策的激励,而且需要提升市场机制对体育消费的资源配置作用,实施"科技+体育"和"互联网+体育"深度融合,完善财税激励政策,大力培育体育消费市场,扩大体育消费人群规模,达到助推体育消费高质量发展的政策激励调控目标。