Bid–Ask Price Competition with Asymmetric Information between Market-Makers

This paper studies the effect of asymmetric information on the price formation process in a quote-driven market. One market-maker receives private information on the value of the quoted asset and repeatedly competes with market-makers who are uninformed. We show that despite the fact that the informed market-maker's quotes are public, the market is never strong-form efficient with certainty until the last stage. We characterize a reputational equilibrium in which the informed market-maker influences and possibly misleads the uninformed market-makers' beliefs. At this equilibrium, a price leadership effect arises, the informed market-maker's expected pay-off is positive and the rate of price discovery increases in the last stages of trade.     

Vertical Price Control and Parallel Imports: Theory and Evidence

The paper analyzes parallel imports, or goods traded without the authorization of a trademark owner. Parallel imports have multiple causes, including vertical price control, which the authors model. A manufacturer selling its product through an independent agent sets the wholesale price sufficiently low to induce a desired retail price abroad. This permits the agent to sell the product profitably in the originating market. Combined social surplus decreases and then increases in the cost of parallel trade. Restricting parallel imports benefits the manufacturer, but could raise or reduce global surplus. The econometric analysis indicates that the vertical‐control explanation of parallel imports is important.     

Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds

We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment‐grade Deutschemark‐denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994–1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two‐factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term‐structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio‐rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short‐ vs. long‐maturity bonds.     

Intranational Price Convergence and Price Stickiness: Evidence from Denmark

We show that estimates of the half‐life of deviations from the law of one price are biased when their precision is not taken into account when aggregating data for different types of goods. Using a comprehensive dataset with monthly price data for 124 homogeneous products across regions in Denmark over the period 1997–2010, we find a large positive aggregation bias. On average, we find that the half‐life is 8.4 months when taking the bias into account, compared with 28.7 months when applying the standard method. The heterogeneity in the estimated half‐life can be explained by price stickiness, distance between regions, and whether the good is traded or non‐traded.     

英文摘要

LI Cheng, LI Ke-jun, MA Wen-tao （School of Economics and Finance, Xi＇an Jiaotong University, Xi＇an 710061, China） Abstract： This paper applies the simulation method on the basis of Dynamic Stochastic G...     

Policy Positions, Information Acquisition and Turnout

This paper explores the relationship between policy positions, information acquisition and turnout. In particular, information acquisition and turnout choices are characterized as a function of citizens' policy positions. It is found that middle‐of‐the‐road citizens are the most likely to both acquire political information and abstain. Comparative‐statics analysis of the information technology indicates that an increase in the effectiveness of information has a higher (positive) impact on information and turnout than a comparable decrease in the cost of information. Furthermore, following a polarization, information and abstention are found to increase.     

股东利益至上的全球银行业最大并购案——荷兰银行被收购案分析

本文描述了荷兰银行收购案的始末,分析了苏格兰皇家银行牵头的财团以分拆收购的方式战胜巴克莱银行的整体收购策略的原因,客观地评价了此次收购战中各参与方的损益,为收购的法律完善提供了建议和支持。并剖析了这项由我国国家开发银行间接参与的收购案对于我国银行业乃至全球银行业参与全球金融的多方面指导意义。     

动态购买力平价理论:概念、证据与运用

本文探索性地建立动态购买力平价(PPP)理论的分析框架,通过模型化国民经济市场化和开放化以及国际经济一体化的结构性因素,描述实际汇率对传统PPP理论平价水平的系统偏离及其动态演化特征。本文依据国际横截面数据进行动态PPP理论的计量分析,取得动态PPP理论的结构方程和可计算形式,进而情景预测2006—2010年间人民币实际汇率升值趋势,为未来时期人民币汇率的均衡调整提供数值参考。     

Business Cycles: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper looks at recent advances in the study of aggregate fluctuations. The emphasis is on three prominent areas of research: the stochastic growth model, economies which exhibit macroeconomic complementarities and models that emphasize heterogeneity. Each section of the paper outlines the theory, examines relevant empirical evidence and then discusses some policy implications of the analysis.     

Democracy, Governance, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

The paper examines how democracy affects long-run growth by influencing the quality of governance. Empirical evidence is first presented showing that measures of the quality of governance are substantially higher in more democratic countries. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is then built to show how a governance-improving democracy raises growth. In this model, stronger democratic institutions influence governance by constraining the actions of corrupt officials. Reducing corruption, in turn, stimulates technological change and spurs economic growth. Empirical evidence is presented showing that democracy is in fact a significant determinant of total factor productivity (TFP) growth between 1960 and 1990 in a cross-section of countries. But this contribution occurs only insofar as stronger democratic institutions are associated with greater quality of governance.     

价格离散、信息搜寻与团购行为

团购行为是当今消费行为学中的一个重要现象,源自市场和产品信息不对称的双重因素是导致消费者行为变化的根本原因。基于产品信息的价格函数模型,分析团购有利于消费者实现信息共享,减少搜寻成本,降低与企业间的信息不对称,减少消费行为的不确定性,从而获得更大的消费效用的结论。     

卖空机制、股价信息含量与暴跌风险--基于融资融券交易的经验证据

文章利用我国逐步推出融资融券交易的自然实验机会,运用双重差分的研究设计,考察了卖空机制对股价反映负面消息效率的影响。文章以2007-2012年的数据为样本研究发现：相对于非标的股票,融资融券标的股票在成为标的之后,其股价对市场的向下波动及时做出了调整,使得股价对市场正负向波动反应之间的不对称性显著降低,表明标的股票更加及时和充分地吸收了有关公司价值的负面信息;同时,相对于非标的股票,融资融券标的标的股票在成为标的之后,其股价暴跌风险显著降低。文章结果表明,我国股市推出融资融券交易后,卖空机制提高了市场对标的股票负面消息的定价效率。     

Resource Price,Macroeconomic Distortions,and Public Outlay: Evidence from Oil-Exporting Countries

This study examines the repercussions of oil price and macroeconomic distortions on government expenditure in 15 oil-exporting countries. Adapting the Pooled Mean Group analytical approach, the long-run findings are indicative of a blend of the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis of the resource curse theory in oil-exporting countries. These effects crucially impact on the poor growth of the real sector in these countries, needed for diversification of their revenue base. Furthermore, both resource curses account for one of the reasons why fiscal deficits in oil-exporting countries have been on the rise. The country short-run coefficient for the balance of payment, economic growth, and exchange rate also supports the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis mix found in the long run. Also, the significant negative impact of oil rents in most countries shows that oil-exporting countries have been making attempts at diversifying their income sources; this is because proceeds from oil cannot be relied upon to adequately finance growing government expenditure, due to the volatile nature of oil prices, thus suggesting also that the volatility hypothesis is valid for most oil-exporting countries in the short run.     

Non‐Linear Pricing and Price Indexes: Evidence and Implications from Scanner Data

Non‐linear pricing, the fact that prices do not necessarily change in proportion to size, is a ubiquitous phenomenon. However, it has been neither particularly well understood nor well measured. Non‐linear pricing is of practical importance for statistical agencies who, in constructing price indexes, are often required to compare the relative price of a product‐variety of two different sizes. It is usually assumed that prices change one‐for‐one with package and pack size (e.g. a 1‐liter cola costs half as much as a 2‐liter bottle). We question the wisdom of such an assumption and outline a model to flexibly estimate the price‐size function. Applying our model to a large U.S. scanner dataset for carbonated beverages, at a disaggregated level, we find very significant discounts for larger‐sized products. This highlights the need to pursue methods such as those advocated in this paper.     

FDI与政府规模、支出结构：理论及证据

随着我国开放程度的加速,FDI不断的引入,地方政府为了本地区的经济增长水平的最大化,会逐渐提高经济建设支出比重,以配合资本进行生产。本文利用中国县级1999年到2003五年数据,进行两部分的经验研究,第一部分研究FDI和政府规模之间的关系,发现随着FDI占GDP比重的增加,政府规模不断扩大。第二部分对FDI和政府支出结构之间关系进行研究,并且得到稳健的结论：随着FDI的增加,会导致地方政府经济建设支出比重不断上升。     

Latent Multilateral Trade Resistance Indices: Theory and Evidence

Anderson and van Wincoop (American Economic Review (2003), 69 :106) make a convincing argument that traditional gravity equation estimates are biased by the omission of multilateral resistance terms. They show that these multilateral resistance terms are implicitly defined by a system of non‐linear equations involving all regions' GDP shares and a global interdependence structure involving trade costs. We show how linearizing the system of non‐linear relationships around a free trade world leads to an interdependence structure that can be used as a Bayesian prior to produce statistical estimates of the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices. This reflects a statistical approach that has advantages over the non‐stochastic numerical approach used by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) to solve for these indices.     

The Impact of a Marginal Cost Increase on Price and Quality: Theory and Evidence from Airline Market Strikes

This paper examines the impact of a marginal cost increase for one firm on price and quality in a duopoly market. The results are derived theoretically and then tested empirically. The marginal cost increase is interpreted as an increase in the wage one firm pays its workers. The predictions are tested with two United States airline strikes during the 1990's. Quality is proxied in three ways: (1) the number of flights per day, (2) the percentage of flights cancelled, and (3) the percentage of flights arriving late. The results show that the strike coefficients for the effects on quality are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality is measured as the number of flights per day. These results are encouraging because of the three measures of quality, it seems that number of flights per day is the measure of quality that is most controllable by the .rm. The strike coefficients for the direct effect on price are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality rankings are determined by the percentage of flights cancelled. The strike coefficients for the total effect on price are most consistent with theoretical predictions when quality rankings are determined by the percentage of flights arriving late.     

Technology Adoption,Export Status,and Skill Upgrading: Theory and Evidence

This paper develops a model of trade that features heterogeneous firms, technology choice and different types of skilled labor in a general equilibrium framework to explain within‐industry increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. Its main contribution is to investigate the impact of firms' export and technology choice decisions on skill upgrading. Only firms in the upper range of the productivity distribution produce for the foreign market using high‐technology. Since this technology is skilled‐biased, exporters that resort to modern technologies are more skill intensive. Empirical evidence is also provided to support the model's main predictions using plant‐level panel data from Chile's manufacturing sector (1990–1999).     

Multinationals, Endogenous Growth, and Technological Spillovers: Theory and Evidence*

FDI has received surprisingly little attention in theoretical and empirical work on openness and growth. This paper presents a theoretical growth model where MNCs directly affect the endogenous growth rate via technological spillovers. This is novel since other endogenous growth models with MNCs, e.g. the Grossman–Helpman model, assume away the knowledge‐spillovers aspect of FDI. We also present econometric evidence (using industry‐level data from seven OECD nations) that broadly supports the model. Specifically, we find industry‐level scale effects and international knowledge spillovers that are unrelated to FDI, but we also find that bilateral spillovers are boosted by bilateral FDI.