有管理的浮动汇率:对新加坡汇率制度的实证研究

新加坡将汇率作为货币政策的中介目标,其BBC制度又是中间形式汇率制度的一个典型,故研究其汇率的运行有重要的现实意义。2005年人民币汇改隐含BBC的逻辑,所以本研究对理解人民币汇率的决定机制也会有所参照。本文在多元线性回归的基础上引入外汇市场压力变量并采用了多结构改变模型(MSCM),通过对新加坡1999年以来的数据测算得到其BBC汇率制度的各组参数,包括汇率篮子的权重分配、权重调整的时点、新元对整个篮子的长期升值趋势和外汇市场干预程度。本文还对比了分析所得结果与新加坡金管局定期对外公布的货币政策立场,发现二者的匹配程度比较好。     

近期人民币汇率制度的选择

汇率制度的选择是一个非常复杂的问题,本文通过分析当前人民币汇率制度中存在的问题,结合中国经济发展的现状,提出可将基于BBC规则的监控汇率带体制作为近期我国人民币汇率制度的选择.     

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with generalized method of moments using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the firm's price-decision problem. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant toward the model.     

Advantageous innovation and imitation in the underwriting market for corporate securities

Investment banks that develop new corporate securities systematically lead the new underwriting market despite being imitated early by equally competitive rivals. We study how innovators and imitators set underwriting fees in order to identify empirically the source of this advantage. Using data of innovative securities since 1985, we do find that innovators set systematically higher fees than imitators. This premium decreases as more issues occur, and faster for later generation products. Imitation is also quicker for later generations. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the innovator has superior skills in structuring any given issue of the new security.     

Evaluating Life Expectancy Evaluations

The quality of life expectancy estimates is one key consideration for an investor in life settlements. The predominant metric for assessing this quality is the so-called A-to-E ratio, which relies on a comparison of the actual to the predicted number of deaths. In this article, we explain key issues with this metric: In the short run, it is subject to estimation uncertainty for small and moderately sized portfolios; and, more critically, in the long run, it converges to 100% even if the underwriting is systematically biased. As an alternative, we propose and discuss a set of new metrics based on the difference in (temporary) life expectancies. We examine the underwriting quality of a leading U.S. life expectancy provider based on this new methodology.     

基于汇率制度影响因素的汇率制度选择：一个理论综述

汇率制度的选择是一个动态的转换过程,影响汇率制度的因素包括许多方面。基于影响汇率制度的经济因素,应从经济结构特征、价格确定及货币危机理论等角度探讨汇率制度选择理论;基于影响汇率制度的政策因素,应从政策配合、BBC规则及政府信誉等角度探讨汇率制度选择理论。此外,对发展中国家汇率制度选择的讨论在20世纪90年代多次金融危机后开始大量增加,其中比较有影响力的是“原罪论”与“浮动恐惧论”。     

From value chain to value constellation: designing interactive strategy

In today's fast-changing competitive environment, strategy is no longer a matter of positioning a fixed set of activities along that old industrial model, the value chain. Successful companies increasingly do not just add value, they reinvent it. The key strategic task is to reconfigure roles and relationships among a constellation of actors--suppliers, partners, customers--in order to mobilize the creation of value by new combinations of players. What is so different about this new logic of value? It breaks down the distinction between products and services and combines them into activity-based "offerings" from which customers can create value for themselves. But as potential offerings grow more complex, so do the relationships necessary to create them. As a result, a company's strategic task becomes the ongoing reconfiguration and integration of its competencies and customers. The authors provide three illustrations of these new rules of strategy. IKEA has blossomed into the world's largest retailer of home furnishings by redefining the relationships and organizational practices of the furniture business. Danish pharmacies and their national association have used the opportunity of health care reform to reconfigure their relationships with customers, doctors, hospitals, drug manufacturers, and with Danish and international health organizations to enlarge their role, competencies, and profits. French public-service concessionaires have mastered the art of conducting a creative dialogue between their customers--local governments in France and around the world--and a perpetually expanding set of infrastructure competencies.     

The Decline and Fall of Joint Ventures: How JVs Became Unpopular and Why That Could Change

The peak year for joint venture formation was 1995, which saw almost 5,700 new ventures. Since then, however, JV activity has gone into a sharp decline, with 2004 setting a new 10‐year low of just over 700 new deals, and many executives have completely dismissed joint ventures as a vehicle for growth. But is this the right conclusion? Perhaps for some companies. But for most, the answer may be to use the lessons from past failures to improve their ability to negotiate and manage joint ventures. This article offers five main pieces of advice: ? Don't rely too much on experience from negotiating acquisitions. JVs require a more balanced, less competitive negotiating style that can help set the tone for a good relationship. ? Don't allow the contract to dominate the relationship. If JV agreements are crafted more with the aim of building trust and achieving a shared understanding than designing explicit provisions for all contingencies, the parties will have stronger incentives to seek business solutions instead of legal remedies. ? Weigh carefully the value of commitment versus the value of flexibility. Although the ability to exit a bad deal clearly has option value, there may be greater value from the stability achieved by locking oneself into a relationship. ? Resist the urge for certainty in termination clauses. A “process‐oriented” approach will typically be more fair, resulting in smoother negotiations and a better working relationship, than an “outcome‐oriented” approach. ? Recognize when a JV has outlived its useful life, and do something about it before value is destroyed.     

The winnowing away of behavioral accounting research in the US: The process for anointing academic elites

This paper reports the results of a study of the most prolific publishers in the four recognized most prestigious journals in accounting for the period 1963 through 1999. The focus is on learning whether the widespread perception that behavioral accounting research (BAR) has diminished in significance as a prominent paradigm in the US accounting academy has any validity and to identify whether a new generation of US BAR researchers is emerging to join the academic elite. Based on the characteristics of persons who have appeared as authors five or more times during the study period, it seems that BAR is in recession in shaping the US academic agenda in accounting. The power of successful individuals to shape the academic agenda as evidenced by service on editorial boards of prominent journals is dominated by those individuals who are graduates of a set of elite schools utilizing a neoclassical economics based research paradigm. The power of this group seems to be growing in the US. In spite of the interest in BAR among accounting doctoral students and faculty, it is not a pursuit that now leads to academic status, which, in turn, diminishes its potential contribution towards the shaping of the accounting academic agenda.     

The scope for national monetary policy in the face of globalised financial markets

Conclusion Experience has shown that German monetary policy is far from impotent There is consequently no call for passive resignation. The monetary authorities must send clear signals if the current turbulence on the currency markets is to be kept in check. The Bundesbank itself has clearly shown — during the period following German Unification — that an autonomous monetary policy is possible in spite of the high degree of integration on international financial markets. It is hard to see why this should not be the case today simply because it is no longer interest rate hikes but base rate cuts that are called for.If interest rates are not reduced, the interest rate on the German capital market will continue to follow the lead set by American monetary policy. But is it right that the American central bank, on the basis of data on the state of the US economy, indirectly helps to determine whether new jobs are created in Germany and whether existing jobs are made more secure? What is required in the medium term is greater independence on the part of German monetary policy. The globalisation of financial markets does not stand in the way of such a strategy.     

Institutions and Economic Performance: Endogeneity and Parameter Heterogeneity

The hallmark of the recent development and growth literature is the quest to identify institutions that explain significant portions of the observed differences in living standards. There are two drawbacks to the prominent approaches that focus either on the global sample, or on developing nations. First, it is unclear whether the identified institutions also hold explanatory power in advanced countries. Second, it is unclear whether the identified institutions matter to the same degree across all countries, or whether perhaps an altogether different set of institutions matters in advanced countries. To address these issues, we examine parameter heterogeneity in prominent approaches to institutions and economic performance. We find that parameter heterogeneity is so strong that it requires a new set of instruments to control for endogeneity. At the same time, however, we confirm that a common set of economically important institutions does exist among advanced and developing nations. The impact of these institutions is shown to vary substantially across subsamples; they are about three times more important in developing countries than in OECD countries.     

Proactive intelligence

The traditional role of intelligence services has entered into a period of crisis. For decades the main objective of the intelligence system has been (and still is) to detect the moment at which a potential risk becomes a genuine threat and to act when this transition occurs. The logic of this system is based on the same conception that dominated futures studies in its early times: the predictive approach. Essentially, this approach postulates that it is possible to predict the future if you have enough high-quality information; the equivalent to this in intelligence terms would be that you can predict a threat if you have enough privileged information.This approach has been successful for some time, but the changes that the world has undergone in recent years have rendered it obsolete. Globalization, the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the emergence of new forms of terrorism are forcing intelligence services to develop new methods to keep pace. The doctrine of pre-emptive attacks could be considered an initial move in this direction, but this paper, which is the preliminary version of a forthcoming dissertation, will argue that a far more profound change is required. In short, the current demand is for a new kind of intelligence that has a far more transversal perspective, a systemic mode of operation and an anticipatory approach to risks and threats: proactive intelligence.     

Welfare and technology in the network society—Concerns for the future of welfare

The last decade of explosive innovation thanks to the growth of information and communication technologies (ICT) has left the public sector, and particularly the provision of welfare services, largely unchanged. Where socialising, commerce, information finding, entertainment and travel have all undergone profound structural transformations, the workings of government have not seen a similar shift. To be sure, the pace of decision-making has been sped up, as it has elsewhere, by Blackberries, and a small number of services are delivered online. But these services are still based around their offline equivalents, and usually aim simply at cutting the costs associated with their delivery by moving online. While this will continue to be a key motivation for the digitisation of government, other more fundamental developments are set to take place which will herald new online-only services, and which will encourage radical decentralisation of power.The first part of this paper will look at the private sector's experience over the past decade for clues as to why the public sector has moved relatively slowly, and likely directions of development in coming years. We will also here present evidence from our own forecasts of the likely narrowing of the digital divide. The next two sections will then deal with future developments in more detail, firstly looking at ICT's future role in welfare service delivery, and secondly at the ways in which it might be used for greater citizen engagement, and the reshaping of power structures that will result from this. The final section will examine some conflicts that arise from this reorientation away from the centre.     

A new educational paradigm for the new millennium: Consciousness-based education

It is the year 2050 and education is dramatically different from education in the 20th century. At the basis of the new education is the insight that a field of pure consciousness exists which can easily be experienced by all. From this insight, a new educational paradigm has emerged—consciousness-based education—with a more profound understanding of human development and how to promote it. The primary goal of education now is enlightenment and the entire curriculum is organised to foster this goal. The flowering of human potential produced by this educational approach has created a new age for humanity—the Age of Enlightenment.     

Evolution and revolution as organizations grow. 1972

The influence of history on an organization is a powerful but often overlooked force. Managers, in their haste to build companies, frequently fail to ask such critical developmental questions as, Where has our organization been? Where is it now? and What do the answers to these questions mean for where it is going? Instead, when confronted with problems, managers fix their gaze outward on the environment and toward the future, as if more precise market projections will provide the organization with a new identity. In this HBR Classic, Larry Greiner identifies a series of developmental phases that companies tend to pass through as they grow. He distinguishes the phases by their dominant themes: creativity, direction, delegation, coordination, and collaboration. Each phase begins with a period of evolution, steady growth, and stability, and ends with a revolutionary period of organizational turmoil and change. The critical task for management in each revolutionary period is to find a new set of organizational practices that will become the basis for managing the next period of evolutionary growth. Those new practices eventually outlast their usefulness and lead to another period of revolution. Managers therefore experience the irony of seeing a major solution in one period become a major problem in a later period. Originally published in 1972, the article's argument and insights remain relevant to managers today. Accompanying the original article is a commentary by the author updating his earlier observations.     

From Performance Measurement to Performance Enhancement: An Information System Case-Study from the Administration of Justice

This article describes a pilot initiative at the magistrates' courts of East Sussex, which was designed to promote better performance in administration. The project continues, but it is already possible to conclude that a transformation of some significance has been achieved: from 'information for monitoring purposes' to 'information for enhanced performance'. The process that has been set in place promises to achieve what a nationally-driven, more generalized and standardized approach has struggled to deliver for more than a decade.     

Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients

We explore a new channel for attracting inflows using a unique data set of corporate 401(k) retirement plans and their mutual fund family trustees. Families secure substantial inflows by being named trustee. We find that family trustees significantly overweight, and are reluctant to sell, their 401(k) client firm's stock. Trustee overweighting is more pronounced when the relationship is more valuable to the trustee family, and is concentrated in those funds receiving the greatest benefit from the inflows. We quantify this flow benefit and find that inclusion in the 401(k) plan has an economically and statistically large, positive effect on inflows.     

Resource Accounting in Ireland

The advocates of resource accounting see it as improving financial management and thereby improving the accountability of the organization, while critics see it as making the whole process of accounting more complicated than it should be. The Department of Public Enterprise in Ireland has published resource accounts for the past two years. While it has encountered many difficulties in making the accounts meaningful, the end result is a set of accounts comparable in standard to those of the private sector. This article explores the issues encountered by the Department and how it overcame these difficulties.     

Developments: Resource Accounting in Ireland

The advocates of resource accounting see it as improving financial management and thereby improving the accountability of the organization, while critics see it as making the whole process of accounting more complicated than it should be. The Department of Public Enterprise in Ireland has published resource accounts for the past two years. While it has encountered many difficulties in making the accounts meaningful, the end result is a set of accounts comparable in standard to those of the private sector. This article explores the issues encountered by the Department and how it overcame these difficulties.     

城乡统筹视角下我国新农合制度发展与制度整合分析

新型农村合作医疗制度运行6年多来,在农村经济发展过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文就新农合制度运行过程中的现状进行分析,结合既往实地调查资料,探究制度本身存在的问题及几点建议,同时在统筹城乡视角下,探析做好新农合制度与其他几种社会医疗保险制度接续的必要性,指出做好新农合制度与其他几种社会医疗保险制度的整合,是进一步完善新农合制度的迫切需要,首先应该考虑的是新农合与城镇居民基本医疗保险的整合之路。