What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility,exuberance and vagary

Biondi et al. (Phys A 391(22):5532–5545, 2012) develop an analytical model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, capable to capture important stylized facts. These latter properties prove to be sensitive to regulatory regimes for fundamental information provision, as well as to market confidence conditions among actual and potential investors. We comparatively assess accounting models belonging to two main families: historical cost accounting and mark-to-market (fair value) accounting regimes. Regimes based upon mark-to-market measurement of traded security, while generating higher linear correlation between market prices and fundamental signals, also involve higher market instability and volatility. These regimes also incur more relevant episodes of market exuberance and vagary in some regions of the market confidence space, where lower market liquidity further occurs.     

Convex incentives in financial markets: an agent-based analysis

We investigate whether convex incentive contracts are a source of instability of financial markets as indicated by the results of a continuous double-auction asset market experiment performed by Holmen et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 40:179–194, 2014). We develop a model to replicate the setting of the experiment and perform an agent-based simulation where agents have linear or convex incentives. Extending the simulation by varying features of actual asset markets that were not studied in the experiment, our main results show that increasing the number of convex incentive contracts increases prices and volatility and decreases market liquidity, measured both as bid–ask spreads and volumes. We also observe that the influence of risk aversion on traders’ decisions decreases when there are convex contracts and that increasing the differences in initial wealth among the traders has similar effects as increasing number of convex incentive contracts.     

Analytically pricing variance and volatility swaps under a Markov-modulated model with liquidity risks

This paper determines strike prices of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps taking into account stochastic liquidity risks and the switching of economic conditions. We adopt nonlinear regime switching volatility to reflect how asset prices are affected by economic cycles, and market prices of assets are discounted according to the level of market liquidity. We then establish a risk-neutral measure under regime switching Esscher transform, so that analytical valuation of variance/volatility swaps can be completed based on the closed-form forward characteristic function. The limiting behavior of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps is also considered through the investigation of pricing continuously sampled variance/volatility swaps. Finally, based on the results from numerical implementation, we confirm that the new model is very flexible in reflecting different influence associated with common real market observations.     

Revisiting the issue of survivability and market efficiency with the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market

The relevance of risk preference and forecasting accuracy for investor survival has recently been the focus of a series of theoretical and simulation studies. At one extreme, it has been proven that risk preference can be entirely irrelevant (Sandroni in Econometrica 68:1303–1341, 2000; Blume and Easley in Econometrica 74(4):929–966, 2006). However, the agent-based computational approach indicates that risk preference matters and can be more relevant for survivability than forecasting accuracy (Chen and Huang in Advances in natural computation, Springer, Berlin, 2005; J Econ Behav Organ 67(3):702–717, 2008; Huang in J Econ Interact Coord, 2015). Chen and Huang (Inf Sci 177(5):1222–1229, 2007, 2008) further explained that it is the saving behavior of traders that determines their survivability. However, institutional investors do not have to consider saving decisions that are the most influential investors in modern financial markets. Additionally, traders in the above series of theoretical and simulation studies have learned to forecast the stochastic process that determines which asset will pay dividends, not the market prices and dividends. To relate the research on survivability to issues with respect to the efficient markets hypothesis, it is better to endow agents with the ability to forecast market prices and dividends. With the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market, where traders do not have to consider saving decisions and can learn to forecast both asset prices and dividends, we revisit the issue of survivability and market efficiency. We find that the main finding of Chen and Huang (2008) that risk preference is much more relevant for survivability than forecasting accuracy still holds for a wide range of market conditions but can fail when the baseline dividend becomes very small. Moreover, the advantage of traders who are less averse to risk is revealed in the market where saving decisions are not taken into account. Finally, Huang’s (2015) argument regarding the degree of market inefficiency is confirmed.     

Interest rate dynamics and volatility transmission in the European short term interest rate market

This paper investigates the price and volatility relationship in European short-term interest rate markets. Cointegration analysis is used to analyse the long and short run relationship and a GARCH BEKK model is estimated to analyse the volatility transmission between the markets. The stability of the long run relationship is also examined using Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66(1),47–78, 1998, J Appl Econ 18(1):1–22, 2003) structural break methodology. The results show that the relationship between the EURIBOR spot deposit rate and the EURIBOR future contract has changed significantly since 2001 and several structural breaks are present in the 13 year sample period. During periods where there is a long run relationship present the spot deposit rate generally leads the future rate in price discovery. In the short run there is bi-directional causality present between the markets. There is also significant evidence of volatility transmission from the spot market to the futures market throughout the sample period.     

Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks

This paper presents an extension of the stochastic volatility model which allows for level shifts in volatility of stock market returns, known as structural breaks. These shifts are endogenously driven by large return shocks (innovations), reflecting large pieces of market news. These shocks are identified from the data as being bigger in absolute terms than the values of two threshold parameters of the model: one for the negative shocks and one for the positive shocks. The model can be employed to investigate different sources of stock market volatility shifts driven by market news, without relying on exogenous information. In addition to this, it has a number of interesting features which enable us to study the effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility. The above properties of the model are shown based on a study for the US stock market volatility.     

Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies

Despite the econometric advances of the last 30 years, the effects of monetary policy stance during the boom and busts of the stock market are not clearly defined. In this paper, we use a structural heterogeneous vector autoregressive (SHVAR) model with identified structural breaks to analyse the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies on U.S. stock market volatility. We find that contractionary monetary policy enhances stock market volatility, but the importance of monetary policy shocks in explaining volatility evolves across different regimes and is relative to supply shocks (and shocks to volatility itself). In comparison to business cycle fluctuations, monetary policy shocks explain a greater fraction of the variance of stock market volatility at shorter horizons, as in medium to longer horizons. Our basic findings of a positive impact of monetary policy on equity market volatility (being relatively stronger during calmer stock market periods) are also corroborated by analyses conducted at the daily frequency based on an augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model of realised volatility (HAR-RV) and a multivariate k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles framework. Our results have important implications both for investors and policymakers.     

Robustness for path-dependent volatility models

In this paper, we consider a generalisation of the Hobson–Rogers model proposed by Foschi and Pascucci (Decis Eocon Finance 31(1):1–20, 2008) for financial markets where the evolution of the prices of the assets depends not only on the current value but also on past values. Using differentiability of stochastic processes with respect to the initial condition, we analyse the robustness of such a model with respect to the so-called offset function, which generally depends on the entire past of the risky asset and is thus not fully observable. In doing this, we extend previous results of Blaka Hallulli and Vargiolu (2007) to contingent claims, which are globally Lipschitz with respect to the price of the underlying asset, and we improve the dependence of the necessary observation window on the maturity of the contingent claim, which now becomes of linear type, while in Blaka Hallulli and Vargiolu (2007), it was quadratic. Finally, in this framework, we give a characterisation of the stationarity assumption used in Blaka Hallulli and Vargiolu (2007), and prove that this model is stationary if and only if it is reduced to the original Hobson–Rogers model. We conclude by calibrating the model to the prices of two indexes using two different volatility shapes.     

What drives the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market?

This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis.     

Collateral amplification under complete markets

This paper examines the robustness of the Kiyotaki–Moore collateral amplification mechanism to the existence of complete markets for aggregate risk. We show that, when borrowers can hedge against aggregate shocks at fair prices, the volatility of endogenous variables becomes identical to the first best in the absence of credit constraints. The collateral amplification mechanism disappears.To motivate the limited use of contingent contracts, we introduce costs of issuing contingent debt and calibrate them to match the liquidity and safety premia the data. We find that realistic costs of state contingent market participation can rationalize the predominant use of uncontingent debt. Amplification is restored in such an environment.     

Multiple patterns in the dynamics of a stock market model

We study a non-linear model of the interactions between stock market prices and the level of assets owned by investment funds. The model dynamics is described, in continuous time, by a smooth vector field in the plane, which presents, under suitable hypotheses, a unique equilibrium point.Our analisis of the system flow is qualitative and focuses on detecting endogenous fluctuations of the state variables, i.e. on checking existence and number of limit cycles.We prove that several, and quite different, dynamical patterns can occur, even in cases where the system isoclines assume that most simple geometrical forms.It is shown, in particular, that the equilibrium point can undergo either a sub-critical or a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation whenever two economically meaningful exogenous parameters are made to cross a given set of critical values. Hence, in the subcritical case, as a trapping region exists, at least two limit cycles appear.Next, we give analytical examples of model-consistent vector fields which present a multiplicity of fluctuating trends, and prove the apparently surprising result that the number of limit cycles can be as large as one wants, provided a specific isocline assumes a cubic shape.Both authors are members of the Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e le sue Applicazioni-G.N.A.F.A. of the Italian Council of Researches-CN.R.The present paper refers to the activities of the National M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Non Lineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

Mispricing in the odd lots market in Brazil

We study the case of mispricing in the odd lots equity market in Brazil. Contrary to expectation, odd lot investors are paying higher prices than round lot investors. The pricing difference between markets is affected by market returns, volatility and spreads. Our main hypothesis is that; once the assets traded in the odd lot market are more illiquid than their counterparts, the mispricing is driven by liquidity factors. Additionally, we show that the mispricing yields an arbitrage opportunity that is not being traded away in the Brazilian market. Therefore, we propose regulators to review the market design for odd lots in Brazil. We argue that reducing the minimal trading unit in the round lots market would benefit investors.     

Unravelling financial market linkages during crises

An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises, including spillover and contagion effects, are formally specified. The model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks, country and market shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks. The framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The results provide strong evidence that cross‐market links are important. Spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion, but both are statistically significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of listing changes between NASDAQ market segments

This study analyzes the effects of listing changes within NASDAQ market segments during the period of 1998 to 2005. We find that firms phased up from the NASDAQ Small Capital Market (SmallCap) to the NASDAQ National Market (NNM) experienced significant declines in bid-ask spreads, the volatility of returns, and the probability of informed trading, and firms that phased down from NNM to the SmallCap experienced decreases in bid-ask spreads, but insignificant changes in the volatility of returns and the probability of informed trading. We also estimate simultaneous equations models of bid-ask spreads, return volatility, and trading volume for both groups of firms. The results confirm that improved liquidity is associated with the listing changes for the phase-up firms. However, the simultaneous equations model suggests that the decreases in bid-ask spreads for the phase-down firms are caused by the changes in share prices.     

Symmetry and Bates’ rule in Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility models

We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the market symmetry property, introduced by Fajardo and Mordecki (Quant Finance 6(3):219–227, 2006), to hold in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model, henceforth OU–SV. In particular, we address the non-Gaussian OU–SV model proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (J R Stat Soc B 63(Part 2):167–241, 2001). Also, we prove the Bates’ rule for these models.     

The federal funds market,excess reserves,and unconventional monetary policy

Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, interbank borrowing and lending dropped, whereas reserve holdings of depository institutions skyrocketed, as the Fed injected liquidity into the U.S. banking sector. This paper introduces bank liquidity risk and limited market participation into a real business cycle model with ex ante identical financial intermediaries and shows, in an analytically tractable way, how interbank trade and excess reserves emerge in general equilibrium. Investigating the role of the federal funds market and unconventional monetary policy for the propagation of aggregate real and financial shocks, I find that federal funds market participation is irrelevant in response to standard supply and demand shocks, whereas it matters for “uncertainty shocks”, i.e. mean-preserving spreads in the cross-section of liquidity risk. Liquidity injections by the central bank can absorb the effects of financial shocks on the real economy, although excess reserves might increase and federal funds might be crowded out, as a side effect.     

Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets

This paper extends the shift-contagion concept to housing price returns in order to examine co-movements between pairs of regional housing markets in the US. It associates nonlinearities of housing prices with the monetary policy criteria at disaggregate levels. The framework with Markov-switching volatility in Gravelle et al. (Journal of International Economics 68:409–423, 2006) is utilized to investigate housing contagion phenomena which are defined as the switches in the structural transmission of common shocks across regional housing markets. The empirical results suggest that interactions between regional and nationwide housing markets switch across low-volatility and high-volatility regimes of common shocks for the Northeast and the West whose housing price returns are nonlinear. In addition, there is the significantly time-varying interdependence between the West and each of the other three regional housing markets. The estimated indicator of the monetary policy effectiveness implies that monetary policies can be effective in the Northeast and the West because they are more closely linked with other regional housing markets in volatile phases which are subject to housing crises. Noticeably, the broken interrelationships between regional housing markets and real economies in the 2001 recession imply high vulnerability to housing bubbles for regional markets, while short-term monetary policies can be effective in stabilizing the housing market turmoil around 2007.     

Supply constraints and housing market dynamics

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.     

Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?

The volatility smile/skew phenomenon makes it unclear which implied volatility provides the best measure of the market volatility expectation over the remaining life of the option. Due to the high liquidity of at-the-money option and the low sensitivity of its implied volatility to the price error, the at-the-money implied volatility is often considered a good measure of future volatility. In this paper, we raise the question: is at-the-money implied volatility the best we can do? We provide in this paper an analytical rationale that the implied volatility from option with highest vega outperforms the at-the-money implied volatility in terms of forecasting ability, especially for long forecasting horizons. Our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical argument.     

Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.