实物期权理论及其在资产评估中的应用

本文认为现金流折现法是一种相对静态的价值评估方法,只有同时考虑资产的收益现值及其内嵌的实物期权价值才能比较准确评估未来不确定性特征比较明显的资产价值本文探讨了实物期权方法在自然资源、房地产、研发项目及无形资产、柔性制造设备等资产的价值评估中的运用,最后应用二叉树模型对矿山开采权的评估案例进行了分析:现金流折现法(以下简称DCF法)是一种传统的价值评估方法,该方法认为资产或公司的价值等于其预期现金流按照一定折现率贴现后的现值从理论上讲,如果能准确预测资产或公司未来现金流,并对其相应的风险有个合理评估,那么采用该方法就能较准确评估资产或公司的内在价值.从20世纪60年代开始,DCF法在欧美国家逐渐得到认同并被广泛使用.     

Valuing Assets Using Real Options: An Application to Deregulated Electricity Markets

This paper provides a detailed case of the application of real options valuation techniques to value a contract for the use of a power generation facility. The authors' aim is not primarily to offer a valuation "recipe" for a specific type of asset, but to show how the real options framework can be actually made to work in a variety of situations.
The case illustrates how minor adaptations that take into account the ways in which actual settings differ from the assumptions of standard formulas like Black-Scholes can be used to increase the precision and realism of results. By introducing relatively simple changes to a standard options valuation model, the authors obtain results that are reasonably close to those reported for actual transactions involving similar types of assets. Despite the industry-specific context of the analysis, the applicability of the techniques discussed in the paper should extend beyond the energy industry to other contexts characterized by similar types of uncertainty and production process, particularly those associated with minerals and other commodities.     

Real Estate Rental Payments: Application of Stock-Inventory Modeling

This paper analyzes the rental term structure taking into account the opportunity costs faced by the tenant for varying lease lengths. The analysis involves the application of a multi-period stock inventory model. The implication of the model is that the term structure of rents is determined by a clientele effect that can bias the occupancy value derived from using rational-expectations in the term structure relationship. The model does, however, reveal the characteristic stock-inventory U-shaped function that will determine the optimal lease length for a given tenant.     

Real Options Valuation: A Case Study of an E‐commerce Company

This paper presents a real options valuation model with original solutions to some issues that arise frequently when trying to apply these models to real‐life situations. The authors build on existing models by introducing an innovative and intuitive risk neutral adjustment that allows us to work with all the simulated paths. The problem of incorporating real options into each path is solved with a “nearest neighbors” technique, and uncertainty is simulated using a beta distribution that adapts better to company‐specific information. The model is then applied to a real life e‐commerce company to produce the following insights: the expanded present value is higher than the traditional present value; the presence of several real options make them interact so that their values are nonadditive; and part of the expanded present value is explained by the presence of “Jensen's inequality” that stems from the “convexity” between the value of each year's cash flow and the uncertain variables.     

Management Controls in Public–Private Partnerships: An Analytical Framework

Drawing on transaction cost economics and organisational theory, this paper proposes a framework to analyse management controls in Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs). The paper contributes to the related literature at a conceptual level by showing how three control archetypes, namely market, bureaucratic and clan, in conjunction with two control strategies, namely performance evaluation and trust‐based strategies, could be used by public partners to minimise relational and performance risk, thereby achieving value for money. Practitioners could also use the linkages identified in this paper to develop management control systems for PPPs.     

实物期权理论在企业并购定价中的应用

本文认为,企业价值可以划分为现实资产价值和期权价值两部分。前者可以运用传统的企业价值评估方法进行评估,后者则对企业拥有的期权进行识别和评估,两者之和即为企业价值。通过引进期权理论对传统方法进行改进,本文导出了基于并购特征和企业经营灵活性的并购企业的出价范围,为并购中对目标企业定价提供了一种思路和方法。     

实物期权理论在房地产价值评估中的应用

房地产开发时间长,价格变化快,传统的净现值法易低估房地产开发项目的价值,往往导致对项目的低评。本文通过引入实物期权理论,在论述其在房地产开发价值评估中应用的合理性基础上,结合房地产开发的实例讨论在不确定性条件下房地产推迟开发带来的投资机会价值,为房地产价值评估提供一种更贴近实际情况的方法。     

An Explicit Finite Difference Approach to the Pricing Problems of Perpetual Bermudan Options

The pricing problem of options with an early exercise feature, such as American options, is one of the important topics in mathematical finance. Pricing formulas for options with the early exercise feature, however, are not easy to obtain and the numerical methods are thus frequently required to derive the price of these options. The value function of perpetual Bermudan options is characterized with the partial differential equation and this is solved by the finite difference method in this article.     

Agricultural Pricing Policies in Developing Countries: An Application to Pakistan

The range of and constraints on policy instruments available to thegovernment when raising and distributing revenue can have importantconsequences for the efficiency and equity implications of pricingpolicy. The usual trade-off between equity and efficiency ismagnified. We emphasize the potential for substantial efficiency gainsfrom reforming agricultural pricing policies and from developing moredirect income transfer mechanisms. The importance of incorporatingcross-price effects is highlighted and we show that these can changethe direction of welfare-improving marginal price reforms.     

Risk Weighting and Accounting Choices in Public-Private Partnerships: Case Study of a Failed Prison Contract

A case study of a failed PPP contract shows how ex ante assessments of the extent of risk transfer from public-sector agencies to private-sector contractors were inadequate. Those assessments placed undue weight on some risks, and failed to assess others. The experience suggests that it is inappropriate to choose accounting treatments on the basis of ex ante assessments of risk transfer and risk sharing.     

An Empirical Comparison of Option‐Pricing Models in Hedging Exotic Options

This paper examines the empirical performance of various option‐pricing models in hedging exotic options, such as barrier options and compound options. A practical and relevant testing approach is adopted to capture the essence of model risk in option pricing and hedging. Our results indicate that the exotic feature of the option under consideration has a great impact on the relative performance of different option‐pricing models. In addition, for any given model, the more “exotic” the option, the poorer the hedging effectiveness.     

法国个人房地产税体系透视

在法国,与个人房地产相关的税种包括居住税、建筑土地税、空置住宅税、财富税。法国的个人房地产税在税制要素、税基评估和税收争议等方面形成了相对合理的制度安排,其实践经验对我国开征物业税有借鉴意义。     

Productive Signaling Equilibria and Over-Maintenance: An Application to Real Estate Markets

When there is asymmetric information regarding the quality of a traded durable asset, the informed seller might signal asset quality to prospective uninformed buyers by investing in improvements and maintenance. In contrast to Spence (1973), however, this signal may be productive. We derive conditions of signal productivity under which signaling separating, signaling pooling, and no-signaling pooling equilibria persist. We examine welfare implications of the model and identify the over-investment in maintenance effect that persists in efficient markets with asymmetric information and productive signaling. Furthermore, we conduct comparative statics analysis of the results and show the range of parameter values in which a particular equilibrium is attained. While the model and its outcomes apply to various durable assets, we particularly refer in the analysis to real estate markets.     

Assessing the Real Estate Pricing Puzzle: A Diagnostic Application of the Stochastic Discounting Factor to the Distribution of REIT Returns

This article applies a general asset-pricing framework and the volatility bounds methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) to REIT returns. The state of real estate asset pricing remains somewhat of a puzzle relative to the identification of state variables and the structural form of models. This article offers a framework whereby real estate asset-pricing models and data can be diagnosed to answer questions about the shortcomings. In addition, several nominated discount processes are investigated for success in pricing real estate securities. Although the nominated specifications demonstrate some success in satisfying the restrictions on the first and second moments of the real estate returns distribution, they do not successfully price the securities under a no-arbitrage condition. This result calls into question previous real estate performance studies that employ these risk-adjustment processes.     

The Role of Real Options in Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice1

Most discussions of capital budgeting take for granted that discounted cash flow (DCF) and real options valuation (ROV) are very different methods that are meant to be applied in different circumstances. Such discussions also typically assume that DCF is “easy” and ROV is “hard”—or at least dauntingly unfamiliar—and that, mainly for this reason, managers often use DCF and rarely ROV. This paper argues that all three assumptions are wrong or at least seriously misleading. DCF and ROV both assign a present value to risky future cash flows. DCF entails discounting expected future cash flows at the expected return on an asset of comparable risk. ROV uses “risk‐neutral” valuation, which means computing expected cash flows based on “risk‐neutral” probabilities and discounting these flows at the risk‐free rate. Using a series of single‐period examples, the author demonstrates that both methods, when done correctly, should provide the same answer. Moreover, in most ROV applications—those where there is no forward price or “replicating portfolio” of traded assets—a “preliminary” DCF valuation is required to perform the risk‐neutral valuation. So why use ROV at all? In cases where project risk and the discount rates are expected to change over time, the risk‐neutral ROV approach will be easier to implement than DCF (since adjusting cash flow probabilities is more straightforward than adjusting discount rates). The author uses multi‐period examples to illustrate further both the simplicity of ROV and the strong assumptions required for a typical DCF valuation. But the simplicity that results from discounting with risk‐free rates is not the only benefit of using ROV instead of—or together with—traditional DCF. The use of formal ROV techniques may also encourage managers to think more broadly about the flexibility that is (or can be) built into future business decisions, and thus to choose from a different set of possible investments. To the extent that managers who use ROV have effectively adopted a different business model, there is a real and important difference between the two valuation techniques. Consistent with this possibility, much of the evidence from both surveys and academic studies of managerial behavior and market pricing suggests that managers and investors implicitly take account of real options when making investment decisions.     

析合伙企业在税收协定中"居民"身份的适用

合伙企业是否为“缔约国居民”对税收协定的适用有重要影响。一般来说,合伙企业属于协定意义上的“人”,但并不意味着同时也属于“缔约国居民”,只有当合伙企业被视为纳税实体,对所得负有纳税义务时,才成为协定意义上的“缔约国居民”,此时合伙企业本身有资格享受协定优惠。如果合伙企业所得由合伙人负纳税义务,合伙企业被视为纳税虚体,则不是“缔约国居民”,应由合伙人享受相关协定的优惠。     

A Bayesian Approach to Real Options: The Case of Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent Shocks

Traditional real options models demonstrate the importance of the “option to wait” due to uncertainty over future shocks to project cash flows. However, there is often another important source of uncertainty: uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks. Adding Bayesian uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks augments the traditional option to wait with an additional “option to learn.” The implied investment behavior differs significantly from that in standard models. For example, investment may occur at a time of stable or decreasing cash flows, respond sluggishly to cash flow shocks, and depend on the timing of project cash flows.     

The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets

This article develops an equilibrium framework for strategic option exercise games. I focus on a particular example: the timing of real estate development. An analysis of the equilibrium exercise policies of developers provides insights into the forces that shape market behavior. The model isolates the factors that make some markets prone to bursts of concentrated development. The model also provides an explanation for why some markets may experience building booms in the face of declining demand and property values. While such behavior is often regarded as irrational overbuilding, the model provides a rational foundation for such exercise patterns.