信息不对称、道德风险与市场纪律——国际金融监管新趋势的模型解析

信息披露不充分的金融市场上,单纯的资本充足率监管无法有效地控制银行的道德风险。一个有效的监管制度还有赖于市场纪律的约束。本文在对20世纪金融监管历史进行简要回顾的基础上,运用信息经济学的有关原理,对当前的国际金融监管发展的新趋势进行模型分析,并对其政策含义进行初步的探讨。     

The minimum wage,exports, and firm performance: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper examines the interrelationship between changes in the provincial minimum wage, firms’ export behavior, and firms’ performance in Indonesia. In this regard, we apply a two-stage least squares regression analysis to detailed firm-level data of manufacturing enterprises during 2002–2014. We find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with a decrease in a firm’s employment and productivity, but increase in its probability of exporting and markup. We also use the 2012 minimum wage reform in Indonesia to conduct a difference-in-difference analysis to further mitigate the potential endogeneity of minimum wage regulation. Our findings are generally robust to alternative estimation methods. Moreover, quantile regression results indicate that the average wage, firm size, and the education level of workers also affect the predictions. Above all, this study suggests that Indonesian exports and the country’s comparative advantage in international markets are not negligibly affected by higher labor costs caused by the growth in the minimum wage.     

Lack of successors,firm default,and the performance of small businesses

We investigate the effects of the lack of successors on small businesses with an elderly manager. Using firm-level data from Japan, a country with an aging population, we find the following results. First, smaller, younger, highly leveraged, and nongrowing firms are likely to have no successor. Second, firms with an elderly manager are more likely to exit and default if they have no successors, and this is particularly the case during the global financial crisis around 2009. This result suggests that these firms have less incentive to repay debts because they are not going concerns. As a result of the high probability of default, the annual change in bank borrowing is low if firms with an elderly manager have no successor. Third, the annual change of bank borrowing is lower for firms with no successor during the crisis and post-crisis periods, implying that banks reduce lending to these firms because of their high risk.     

Debt financing structure,ownership concentration and firm performance: a comparison of the listed state-owned and non-state-owned CMNEs

This paper examines the impact of debt financing and ownership concentration on internationalization performance by using a sample of 217 Chinese multinational enterprises (CMNEs) from 2009 to 2016. Through fixed-effect regression and dynamic threshold analysis, this paper finds that increasing short-term debts is positively associated with the internationalization performance of non-state-owned CMNEs, while increasing short-term debts by state-owned CMNEs will harm their performance. Ownership concentration affects CMNEs’ risk preference and thus affecting their internationalization performance in different degrees. This paper finds that the threshold for the impact of CMNEs’ largest shareholder’s ownership concentration on its internationalization performance is 0.18, the thresholds for the impact of CMNEs’ top 10 shareholders’ ownership concentration on its internationalization performance are 0.346 and 0.433. When state-owned CMNEs’ top 10 shareholders’ ownership concentration exceeds 0.337 and 0.347, their internationalization performance will have significant positive changes. Overall, this study is expected to contribute to the literature of internationalization of emerging market companies.