Measuring performance in primary care: econometric analysis and DEA

We use data from the Health Service Indicators database to compare different methods of measuring the performance of English Family Health Services Authorities (FHSAs) in providing primary care. A variety of regression and data envelopment analysis methods are compared as summary efficiency measures of individual FHSA performance. The correlation of the rankings of FHSAs across DEA and regression methods, across two years of data and across three different specifications of the technology of primary care are examined. Efficiency scores are highly correlated within variants of the two methods, and across years for a given method. Inter method correlations are smaller and correlations across different specifications of the primary care production process are negligible and sometime negative.     

Competing specifications of the gravity equation: a three-way model,bilateral interaction effects,or a dynamic gravity model with time-varying country effects?

We investigate bilateral trade flows across the EU-15 countries from 1962 to 2003 by different specifications of the gravity model. We augment the basic gravity model with population and exchange rate variables, and then include time-varying country fixed effects, to account for Anderson and van Wincoop (Am Econ Rev 93(1):170–192, 2003) multilateral resistance terms. Then, following the previous theoretical derivations of the gravity model in the presence of panel data in a dynamic setting we change the specification of our gravity model. We compare the results of different specifications showing the improvement in each case. We claim the comparative superiority of the dynamic gravity model with time-varying exporter and importer fixed effects due to its higher explanatory power. Finally, we compare out-of-sample forecasting performance of different specifications of the gravity model.     

The effect of observables,functional specifications,model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models

The decisions a researcher makes at the model building stage are crucial for parameter identification. This paper contains a number of applied tips for solving identifiability problems and improving the strength of DSGE model parameter identification by fine-tuning the (1) choice of observables, (2) functional specifications, (3) model features and (4) choice of structural shocks. We offer a formal approach based on well-established diagnostics and indicators to uncover and address both theoretical (yes/no) identifiability issues and weak identification from a Bayesian perspective. The concepts are illustrated by two exemplary models that demonstrate the identification properties of different investment adjustment cost specifications and output-gap definitions. Our results provide theoretical support for the use of growth adjustment costs, investment-specific technology, and partial inflation indexation.     

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition. This paper draws work commissioned by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The views presented in this paper are those of the authors alone and should not be regarded as those of DEFRA or of individuals within DEFRA.     

Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.     

ON THE GAME‐THEORETIC FOUNDATIONS OF COMPETITIVE SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM*

We provide a unified directed search framework with general production and matching specifications that encompass most of the existing literature. We prove the existence of subgame perfect Nash equilibria in pure firm strategies in a finite version of the model. We use this result to derive a more complete characterization of the equilibrium set for the finite economy and to extend convergence results as the economy becomes large to general production and matching specifications. The latter extends the microfoundations for the standard market utility assumption used in competitive search models with a continuum of agents to new environments.     

经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄

本文以生命周期理论为出发点,并运用中国1989—2006年的省际面板数据考察了经济增长、人口年龄结构变化以及它们的交互作用对中国储蓄率的影响。我们通过不同的识别方式和各种计量方法实证检验发现:市场经济转型带来的经济高速增长与人口政策转变带来的抚养系数下降导致中国储蓄率不断上升,经济增长对储蓄率上升的贡献随着适龄劳动人口数量的增加而被强化,但会随着人口老龄化程度的加深而被弱化。在使用了不同的识别方法与计量技术并控制了其他潜在影响中国储蓄率的各种因素后,我们的结果基本稳健。     

The impact of public smoking bans on well‐being externalities: Evidence from a policy experiment

Recent studies on the effects of anti‐smoking policies on subjective well‐being present mixed results and do not account for potential externalities, especially among couples. We contribute to the literature by evaluating the impact of smoking bans on well‐being externalities among smokers and non‐smokers as well as couples of different types of smokers. We exploit the policy experiment provided by the timing of the UK public smoking bans and measure well‐being via the GHQ . We employ matching techniques combined with flexible difference‐in‐differences fixed effects panel data models on data from the British Household Panel Survey. The joint use of matching with fixed effects specifications allows building more comparable treatment and control groups, producing less model‐dependent results and accounting for individual‐level unobserved heterogeneity. We find that public smoking bans appear to have a statistically significant short‐term positive impact on the well‐being of married individuals, especially among women with dependent children. These effects appear to be robust to alternative specifications and placebo tests and are discussed in the light of the economic theory and recent evidence.     

Empirical exercises in estimating the effects of different types of financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth

While recent studies of the finance-growth nexus have focused on the use of proxies which more accurately capture the theorized functioning of the financial sector, they have tended to focus either on the functioning of the financial sector as a whole, or on the dominant institutions within the sector. Little attention has been paid to a comparison of the relative effects of different types of financial institutions on economic growth. This article attempts to get a deeper understanding of the finance-growth process by disaggregating the total financial sector impact and examining the individual and relative effects of each type of institution in the financial sector. We explore the empirical properties of alternative specifications of models of the impact of financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth, by conducting a number of exercises. These exercises experiment with various model specifications to represent the long- and short-run impacts of the financial institutions’ functioning on economic growth, using cointegration and error correction methodologies.     

Effective global regularity and empirical modelling of direct, inverse, and mixed demand systems

Abstract .  This paper utilizes the notion of 'effective global regularity' and the intuition stemming from Cooper and McLaren (1996)'s General Exponential Form to develop a family of 'composite' (product and ratio) direct, inverse and mixed demand systems. Apart from having larger regularity regions, the resulting specifications are also of potentially arbitrary rank, which can better approximate non-linear Engel curves. We also make extensive use of duality theory and a numerical inversion estimation method to rectify the endogeneity problem encountered in the estimation of the mixed demand systems. We illustrate the techniques by estimating different types of demand systems for Japanese quarterly meat and fish consumption.     

Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle

Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We address this question, using a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours assesses forecasting performance not just for the United States but also for a panel of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that financial cycle measures have significant forecasting power both in and out of sample, even for a three-year horizon. Moreover, they outperform the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - in nearly all specifications. These results are robust to different recession specifications.     

Growth outside the stable path: Lessons from the European reconstruction

This paper exploits a natural experiment, the large destruction of capital in continental Europe during World War II, to characterize the transitional dynamics of an economy that begins with a capital stock below its steady state level. We use these regularities as a benchmark to discriminate among competing growth specifications. A model that combines non-separabilities in preferences with a technology that restricts the degree of substitutability between inputs outperforms the widely used AK and Cobb–Douglas specifications with time-separable preferences. Our results suggest that policy evaluations based in growth models that overlook non-separabilities in preferences or impose strong restrictions on the technological structure might be grossly misleading.     

Predicting land use allocation in France: A spatial panel data analysis

Predictions of future land use areas are an important issue as land use patterns significantly impact environmental conditions (biodiversity, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change) as well as economic and social welfare. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of aggregated land use share models, we propose in this paper a methodological contribution by controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Our model is a land use shares model applied to aggregated data in France. Our dataset is a panel which covers both time series observations from 1992 to 2003 and cross-sectional observations by Département (equivalent to NUTS3 regions). We consider four land use classes: (1) agriculture, (2) forest, (3) urban and (4) other use. We investigate the relation between the areas in land in different alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Based on the comparison of prediction accuracy of different model specifications, our findings are threefold: First, controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation outperforms any other specification in which spatial autocorrelation and/or individual heterogeneity are ignored. Second, accounting for cross-equation correlations does not seem to improve the prediction performances and finally, ignoring individual heterogeneity introduces substantial loss in prediction accuracy.     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

The impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate

In this article, we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate. We use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trade agreements and the average tariff rate in the neighbours’ countries as instrumental variables to diminish the endogeneity problem of the tariff rate. We find that trade openness increases the participation rate which is economically and statistically significant. The results show that this correlation is robust under controlling for different variables and using various specifications. We find that 10 percentage point increase in tariff rate lowers the participation rate by 4–6 percentage point and this relationship is more severe in the long run. Finally, we show that changes in labour force population accounts for about 27% of changes in the unemployment rate following a trade liberalization.     

Testing the lawyer-induced litigation hypothesis in Europe

Utilizing a European panel dataset, we contribute to the scant empirical literature on the lawyer-induced litigation hypothesis. To address endogeneity problems that arise when estimating the effect of the number of lawyers on civil litigation rates, we use two strategies. We first estimate our model by means of the 2SLS procedure. Second, we exploit the instrumental variable approach based on the linear GMM estimator of Arellano and Bond. The estimations result in a positive and significant effect of lawyers that is robust across the different model specifications and estimation methods in which we address endogeneity. In criminal litigation, where lawyers cannot induce demand, we find no such positive relation between lawyers and litigation.     

Water quality and cottage prices in Ontario

We use hedonic analysis to show that water clarity has a significant effect on lakefront property values in the Near North Ontario, Canada. In this study, water clarity is measured by Secchi disc reading. Based on two different dependent variables; sales price and sales price per square foot, and the estimation of linear, log–linear and log–log models, we find that water clarity does matter to lakefront property buyers in the Near North, Ontario. In particular, our results indicate that buyers are willing to pay about 2% more for each 1-foot increase in water clarity or Secchi depth. This finding is consistent across all of our specifications.     

The effects of fiscal spending shocks on the performance of simple monetary policy rules

We examine the effects of fiscal shocks on the performance of alternative monetary policy rules in a small dynamic general equilibrium framework. We explicitly consider the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy rules which may be present in the real world. We use a simple specification for the fiscal policy rule and various specifications for the (simple) monetary policy rule. Our analysis suggests that some form of flexible inflation targeting regime would perform well in response to fiscal shocks compared to other forms of policy regimes.     

The effect of output specification on the optimal policy design for electric utilities

We show that the manner in which the production process is seen when analyzing data on electricity production has an impact on the policy conclusions. In particular, we show that the different specifications of output found in the literature can generate quite diverse views regarding regulation and optimal industry structure, even when using the same data to estimate a cost function. To illustrate this we use information gathered from the Spanish Electric Industry and analyze electricity activities following three approaches: the traditional aggregate activity view, the multistage model and the multioutput-multistage approach. We estimate the degree of economies of scale S and derive marginal costs for all models, plus economies of vertical integration (EVI) for the last two ones. Then we compare these results and verify that the aggregate analysis can mislead policymaking.     

ON THE DETERMINANTS OF EDUCATIONAL CORRUPTION: THE CASE OF UKRAINE

This article utilizes a unique data set to examine the relationship between a group of potential explanatory variables and educational corruption in Ukraine. Our corruption controls include bribing on exams, on term papers, for credit, and for university admission. We use a robust nonparametric approach in order to estimate the probability of bribing across the four different categories. This approach is shown to be robust to a variety of different types of endogeneity often encountered under commonly assumed parametric specifications. Our main findings indicate that corruption perceptions, past bribing behavior, and the perceived criminality of bribery are significant factors for all four categories of bribery. From a policy perspective, we argue that when bribe control enforcement is difficult, anti‐corruption education programs targeting social perceptions of corruption could be appropriate. (JEL K42, J16, C14)