Valuation Weights,Linear Dynamics and Accounting Conservatism: An Empirical Analysis

Residual income models provide an important theoretical link between equity valuation and financial statement variables. While various researchers have developed models of how accounting policy impacts on the structure of these models, empirical support for these models is at best weak and frequently contradictory. In this paper, we develop an analytical model, which identifies the dependency between valuation weights in residual income models and the associated structure of earnings information dynamics and accounting conservatism. In contrast to many earlier studies, we find strong evidence of conservatism in our reformulation of the linear dynamics. We proceed to test our predictions of the dependency of the weights on two measures of conservatism, the conventional measure of price‐to‐book ratio and the recent measure of a C‐Score index developed by Khan and Watts (2009) and find that the empirical results accord well with our theoretical predictions in the case of the former but not the latter measure.     

A General Affine Earnings Valuation Model

We introduce a methodology, with two applications, that incorporates stochastic interest rates, heteroskedasticity and risk aversion into the residual income model. In the first application, goodwill is an affine (constant plus linear term) function where the constant and linear coefficients are time-varying. Homoskedastic risk gives rise to a constant risk premium, while heteroskedastic risk gives rise to linear state-dependent risk premiums. In the second application, we present a class of models where a non-linear function for the price-to-book ratio can be derived. We show how interest rates, risk, profitability and growth affect the price-to-book ratio.     

The Market's Valuation of Fraudulently Reported Earnings

This study examines the market valuation of accounting earnings during the period before it is publicly revealed that the earnings are fraudulent. Using both cross‐sectional and time‐series valuation models, we first find that the market accords less weight to earnings when the accounting numbers are fraudulent. We also show that the market better anticipates the presence of fraud when there is information in the public domain indicating a high ex‐ante risk of fraud. Our findings suggest that investors are able to accurately assess the probability of fraud and that such assessments affect the market's valuation of earnings even before it is publicly announced that fraud has occurred.     

Positive (Zero) NPV Projects and the Behavior of Residual Earnings

This paper analyzes the time‐series behavior of residual earnings as it relates to the existence of positive NPV opportunities (or 'rents'). The issue is of interest because many recent papers (e.g., Lo and Lys, 1999; and Holthausen and Watts, 2001) have commented on it in the context of the Ohlson (1995) model. The analysis shows that the Ohlson (1995) model allows for positive NPV opportunities, contrary to the frequently made claims.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

Accounting Valuation Models: A Short Primer

This note discusses basic issues related to residual income valuation (RIV) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) models but has only scratched the surface of a complex subject. What clearly emerges from this 'primer' is the conclusion that AEG is a more complex valuation model than RIV. This complexity concerns both the mechanics and interpretation of AEG compared to RIV. Furthermore, a study by Penman (2005 ) raises a question about the usefulness of AEG compared to RIV. His comparisons between RIV and AEG are rather remarkable and suggest that RIV gives estimates of value which are more accurate and less variable than estimates based on AEG. Clearly, these results need further study.     

Valuation of the Firm's Liabilities When Equity Holders Are Also Creditors

Abstract:  This paper presents a tractable structural model whereby controlling equity holders are also among the creditors of the firm. As the firm approaches distress, equity holders can drain the assets of the firm and expropriate other creditors by repaying their credit before bankruptcy. The right of the bankruptcy court to revoke such repayment protects arm's length creditors, reduces the cost of borrowing and induces equity holders to anticipate repayment of their credit. Equity holders decide repayment neither too early nor too late, so as to reduce the risk of repayment revocation by the bankruptcy court. Similar conclusions apply to the preferential repayment of bank loans personally guaranteed by equity holders. The analysis also suggests that callable bearer bonds may be more valuable to equity holders than to other creditors.     

Accounting-Based Valuation with Changing Interest Rates

This paper generalizes Ohlsons [Contemporary Accounting Research Vol. 11 No. 2. 661–687 (1995)] equity valuation framework to allow for stochastic interest rates. Much of this analysis initially deals with the specialized setting in which earnings suffice for cum-dividend value. In such a case, the beginning-of-period (lagged) rate determines the capitalization factor, not the current rate. The underlying earnings dynamic modifies the traditional random walk model via an additional term, namely current earnings multiplied by the percentage change in interest rates. The general model retains these basic aspects of the earnings-sufficiency setting. Empirical implications bear on the returns-to-earnings regression: The earnings-response coefficient decreases as the beginning-of-period rate increases.JEL Classification: M41, G12     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

Non‐additivity in Accounting Valuation: Theory and Applications

This paper has three objectives. First, to introduce a theoretical solution to the issue of non‐additivity between assets in place, relying on an accounting‐based valuation approach. Second, to explain how such an approach can be implemented empirically by measuring synergies between assets. Third, to present the properties of this non‐additive valuation technique. We use Choquet capacities, that is, non‐additive aggregation operators, to measure the interactions between assets and apply our methodology to a sample of US firms from the capital goods industry. To operationalize our approach we examine the relationships between synergies—captured by Choquet capacities—and the market‐to‐book ratio (proxying for growth options), and show how interactions between assets are consistently linked to a firm’s market‐to‐book ratio. We also measure firm‐specific productive efficiency relative to the industry and firm size. For large firms, efficiency, as defined by our approach, is positively associated with higher future operating cash flows. For small firms, efficiency is positively associated with higher future sales growth. We document that the non‐additive approach appears to be better able to identify expected relationships between efficiency and future performance than a simpler approach based on the market‐to‐book ratio.     

Conservatism in residual income models: theory and supporting evidence

In this paper, we develop a framework for evaluating the impact of conservative accounting on the structure of residual income models of equity valuation. We explore specific examples of both unconditional and conditional conservatism and observe a common mathematical structure. We proceed to generalise our model and identify the joint dependency of conservatism and the persistence of abnormal earnings on the weights attached to book values, earnings and dividends. We are able to show theoretically the likely numerical impact of conservatism on price-earnings ratios and under-valuations produced by residual income models. We investigate empirically the interaction between conservatism and persistence and find they accord well with the theory developed. We briefly discuss the implications of testing the effect of conservatism on valuation and linear information dynamics.     

Multi-Period Lead Relations between Price-to-Book Ratios and Accounting Rates-of-Returns: Korean Evidence

Using a sample of Korean firms, this paper investigates the relations between price-to-book ratios and their determinants identified by Ohlson's (1995) accounting-based valuation model. A particular emphasis is placed on thequestion of whether and how the impact of future accounting rates-of-returns on current price-to-book ratios decays within a finite time horizon. Our results reveal that any current price-to-book ratio is significantly relatedto current and future accounting rates-of-returns over the five subsequent years.The relation between the two is stronger when accrual earnings are used for measuring accounting rates-of-returns than it is when cash flows or dividend flows are used. Further, the strength of this multi-period lead relation tends to decrease substantially in magnitude and significance with the time horizon, and becomes insignificant beyond a certain time horizon.     

International Variation in Accounting Measurement Rules and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors

We theorize that accounting systems affect analysts' forecast accuracy through changes in earnings variability. We argue that the matching and historical cost principles reduce earnings variability, and hence, reduce analysts' earnings forecast errors. We also argue that restricting the choice of accounting methods can result in larger forecast errors. We argue that more informative disclosure environments should reduce forecast errors. We test whether variation in these factors across countries explain variation in analysts' earnings forecast bias and accuracy. Our results indicate that these characteristics of financial accounting systems are complements, and that they affect financial analysts' earnings forecast errors.     

Liability Valuation and Debt Defeasance: A Cash-Flow Exit-Price (CaFE) Approach

This paper reviews the arguments of Chambers with respect to liability measurement in his continuously contemporary accounting (CoCoA) system and the views of his critics are summarized and discussed. The paper then examines the issue of laibility valuation and in-substance debt defeasance in the context of historic-cost accounting. A specific illustration is provided showing how an in-substance debt-defeasance arrangement would be reported under a CaFE system. It is concluded that stating debt at its exit price would provide useful information and could reduce the incentives for firms to enter into in-substance debt-defeasance arrangements.     

The Commercialization of Government's Departmental Accounting (AAS 29): Quasi Rents and Public Welfare

In the Australian public sector. departmental administrative reform is intent on producing lean. efficient. commercially orientated government entities. An accounting regulatory response is AAS 29. Financial Reporting for Governtizetzt Departments. which requires all government departments as reporting entities to adopt in principle much of the whole corpus of private sector accounting standards and statements including. importantly, current cost accounting. This paper explores the proposition that the commercialization of departmental accounting through AAS 29 or similar pronouncements is directly associated with a significant reduction in social and public welfare accountability. Accounting processes are powerful. value-laden agents of social change. Benston (1980) states that 'benefits (net of costs) of accounting standards to society' cannot be measured but can be specified for individuals. Here. accounting outcomes are identified to be the residuals of economic policies to eliminate quasi rents in government. Standardization in AAS 29 rests on the assumption that rights and obligations being equities of generations of participants can be periodically measured as A -L = E at current factor prices. This economic notion lacks cultural heritage in financial disclosure of continuing equities in government and may, for any generation of consumers. induce an excess of social costs over social benefits for the accounting standardization process under prevailing managerialist philosophies.     

Examining the differences between United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (U.S. GAAP) and International Accounting Standards (IAS): implications for the harmonization of accounting standards

Current trends indicate continued movement towards the harmonization of accounting standards, but not without difficulty and concern. At times, the political and financial market pressure, push the movement in opposite directions. The paper discusses the conceptual framework used in establishing Global Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) (International Accounting Standards, IAS) and U.S. GAAP. Numerous transactional examples are illustrated under both Global GAAP and U.S. GAAP treatment. Several country specific references are presented demonstrating the difficulty in achieving harmonization. Implications for harmonization of accounting standards include arguments “for” and “against” Global GAAP.     

银行商誉的剩余收益法实证检验

使用Feltham和Ohlson阐述的剩余收益评估模型对国内银行类上市公司的商誉与会计科目之间的关系进行评估,实证检验结果表明:银行商誉价值主要源于存款、贷款以及销售有偿服务。但由于在产权结构及经营模式等诸多环节存在的差异,高度适应于国外商业银行商誉评估的剩余收益模型却在国内表现出非适应性。     

Acceptance of China Research in Western Accounting Journals (1978-2007)

This study provides a statistical analysis of the research involving mainland China accepted in Western accounting journals in the past thirty years (1978-2007). The analysis focuses on assessing the level of acceptance of China research and examining the publication patterns of these studies. Based on the results, the study then explores factors explaining the findings, and provides critical assessments on the status quo of China research, suggestions to cope with current problems, and suggestions to promote China research.     

信息税及其对证券市场会计信息披露问题的治理

随着我国证券市场的发展,证券市场的法定信息披露、信息披露监管、会计准则建设等信息的公共服务越来越重要,而证券市场现行较为单一的证券交易税收制度作为公共服务开支的来源很难保证这些公共服务的有效提供。开征信息税所产生的收入、支出和调节等作用会产生一定的政策效应,如提高证券市场信息披露利益相关者对虚假信息披露问题进行治理参与的积极性,提高信息披露监管、信息披露规则建设和合法信息权利保障工作的财力支持,从而有利于证券市场信息披露质量、信息监管质量的提高,有利于证券市场有效性的提高和信息披露利益相关者合法权益的维护。     

新保险会计准则征求意见稿对寿险企业利润计量的影响

本文分析并比较了财政部发布的《企业会计准则第X号保险合同(修订)(征求意见稿》与我国现行保险会计准则在利润披露与确认方面的差异。通过仿真模拟利润计量,发现征求意见稿下定期寿险合同的承保后期将会确认更多的利润贡献;合同服务边际对利润计量的平滑效应更加突出,尤其是对亏损计量的吸收作用将会显现;征求意见稿对手续费及佣金的规定会进一步平稳计量利润;收入口径的改变更符合寿险合同长期性的经济特质等。因此,建议我国寿险公司统一数据平台,衔接财务系统与精算系统;调整绩效考核指标、业务结构和产品策略;更加谨慎合理地进行产品定价测算;进一步加强保单的维护工作,为应对征求意见稿的实施做好充分准备。