现行国际货币体系与我国货币供给内生性

基于后凯恩斯主义的内生货币供给理论,本文重点从基础货币的角度分析了我国货币供给的内生性,主要结论是:1994年以前,"对金融机构债权"项目的变动是导致我国基础货币投放具有内生性的主要原因,而从1994年开始特别是在2002年以后,则由"国外资产净额"项目即外汇占款的增加主导了我国基础货币的被动投放.进而影响了中央银行对货币供应量的控制能力,使我国货币政策的传导在起点上就缺乏有效性.在现行的国际货币体系下,为减轻货币内生性带来的影响、提高货币政策的有效性,我国应加速人民币国际化进程和建立更具弹性的汇率制度.     

Keynes and the international monetary system: Time for a tabular standard?

This paper discusses proposals for tabular standards in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In particular, we focus on Keynes’ proposal for an international tabular standard (ITS) as the gold standard unravelled in the 1930s. The paper explains the origins of Keynes’ ITS proposal which pegged the value of an international reserve to a broad index of primary commodities, weighted in terms of their value in world production. We argue that the ITS should be viewed as an important and enduring component of Keynes’ ideal long-run vision for anchoring the international monetary system, even post-Bretton Woods.     

Foreign investment, reparations and the proposal for an international bank: notes on the lectures of J M Keynes in Geneva, July 1929

Keynes's lectures to the Geneva School of International Studiesprovide substance to the intellectual linkages between the Cambridgedon and economists working in international economic agenciesduring the inter-war period. Keynes was keenly sought afteras a policy adviser; as the notes to these lectures indicate,he provided his audience with theoretical insights into thepressing issues of the day - reparations and the transfer problem,the economic foundations of the Dawes and Young Plans, and proposalsfor an international bank.     

国际货币体系失衡下的中国汇率政策

中国汇率升值预期过高的基本原因是货币性的,而实际上实体经济层面升值压力并不大。人民币将会在双向波动、小幅升值过程中保持相对稳定,并在适当时机适度扩大浮动区间。当前,汇率对世界贸易基本格局的影响已经弱化,不能依赖汇率自发调整贸易失衡。中美应加强合作,共同进行经济结构调整。中国应强化内需主导战略,与亚洲国家一起在经济和货币上,逐步摆脱对美国的过度依赖。     

欧债危机对中国的影响及国际货币体系的改革思考

近期,欧债危机愈演愈烈,已显现出向欧元区核心国家蔓延的态势.本文重点分析了欧债危机对中国的影响,在此基础上从短期和长期两个角度提出了中国面对欧债危机的应对之策.同时,作者分析了欧债危机对今后区域与国际货币体系改革的启示,并探讨了中国如何参与当前国际货币体系的改革.     

中心国金融危机与国际货币体系更替之间的联系

中心国金融危机与国际货币体系更替之间存在密切联系,当国际货币体系的中心国霸权地位开始逐步下降后,会带来外围国家对其货币作为储备货币的信心下降并诱发中心国储备货币信心危机的发生。从历史来看,中心国出现储备货币信心危机通常还不是货币体系更替的标志性事件,只有当中心国出现主权债务危机时,旧的国际货币体系才会到达终点。当前中国作为外围国家,应重点关注中心国美国的国债市场变化趋势,从而选择正确的应对措施。     

The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

In a constantly changing economic environment, a country's ability to undertake institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. A wide range of determinants for institutional reforms have been identified. However, the impact of trust on reforms has not been fully addressed. We provide theoretical arguments why trust should influence institutional changes and test the relationship empirically. We find a significant positive relation between trust and the success of reforms with regard to government size, the legal system, and deregulation of private businesses and the labor market. Other policy fields are ambiguous.     

CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

国际资本流动对中国货币政策影响的实证研究

在开放经济的"三元冲突"中,中国选择了固定汇率,较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性,即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动.但在这种组合下,随着我国资本流动规模的扩大,货币政策独立性也将进一步丧失.对于中国,货币政策的自主权至关重要,除非有能力继续维持更严格的资本管制,我国必须逐步扩大汇率的浮动区间.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap

We construct a model of the international transmission of ‘liquidity trap’ shocks, and examine the case for international coordination of fiscal policy to respond to the liquidity trap. Integrated financial markets tend to propagate liquidity traps. In a global environment, fiscal policy may be effective in raising GDP when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap, but it does so in a ‘beggar thy neighbor’ fashion; when one economy is in a liquidity trap, the cross country spillover effect of fiscal policy is negative. We examine the welfare optimizing policy response to a liquidity trap when countries coordinate on fiscal policy. Fiscal policy may be an effective tool in responding to a liquidity trap, although it is never optimal to use fiscal expansion sufficiently to fully eliminate a downturn. Moreover, there is little case for coordinated global fiscal expansion. For the most part, the country worst hit by a liquidity trap shock should use its own policies to respond, without much help from foreign policies.     

信用视角下的货币政策有效性研究

信用是市场经济的基石,信用制度的完善与否关系到国家各项宏观调控政策能否真正得到贯彻落实。本文以我国的信用现状为出发点,分析了信用制度的缺失对中央银行在通过实施货币政策进行宏观调控时货币政策工具、货币政策中介目标、货币政策传导机制等方面的影响,认为信用缺失是造成我国货币政策效果不明显的关键因素。     

美国金融生态的恶化与量化宽松货币政策就业效应的失灵

在量化宽松货币政策下,美国的经济衰退得到了显著遏制,但失业率却持续在高水平运行,表明量化宽松货币政策对降低失业水平无效。研究显示,金融危机造成了美国金融生态的明显恶化,银行体系采取了紧缩信贷的应对措施,因此,美国政府通过量化宽松货币政策释放的流动性被截留在银行体系内部,不能形成满足市场投资需求的流动性供给,国内投资不能扩张,失业率就不可能下降,其结果必然导致量化宽松货币政策就业效应的失灵。     

金融危机的货币政策反应

自20世纪90年代以来,我国已经历两次由国际金融危机所引发的宏观经济紧缩,这表明外源性冲击已成为影响国内经济增长的重要制约因素.实证研究表明,在当前国内经济受到外部冲击而出现紧缩时,货币政策对消费和投资的影响依然显著,但在效果上存在差异.降低利率能长期稳定提高消费增长;而货币供应量扩张仅在五个季度内能显著刺激投资增长,长期基本无效.因此,本文认为现阶段在与财政政策和产业政策配合拉动内需时,应将带动国内消费增长作为货币政策长期任务,而将提高国内投资作为短期目标.     

What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?

U.S. government indebtedness and fiscal deficits increased notably following the Global Financial Crisis. Yet long-term interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields have remained remarkably low. What keeps long-term interest rates so low? This paper relies on a simple model, based on John Maynard Keynes’ view that the central bank's actions are the key drivers of long-term interest rates, to explain the behavior of long-term interest rates in the U.S. The empirical findings confirm that short-term interest rates are the most important determinants of long-term interest rates in the U.S. Contrary to conventional wisdom, higher government indebtedness has a negative effect on long-term interest rates, particularly on a long run basis. However, in the short run, higher government indebtedness has a positive effect on long-term interest rates. These are relevant for contemporary policy debates and macroeconomic theory.     

论中国的货币政策目标

货币政策目标是货币政策的核心 ,货币政策效果如何 ,表现为货币政策目标是否实现。本文回顾了中国两种不同货币政策目标的形成原因 ,认为近期内中国货币政策目标不会发生变化 ,从长期来看有可能变为四大目标。尽管把金融市场的稳定作为货币政策目标存在着操作上的困难 ,但中国的货币政策应该关注金融市场的稳定。     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.