The wealth effect and diamond risk structure of financial regulation

The objective of this article was to evaluate the effect of announcements of financial regulation on risk and return in the Vietnamese equity market. The techniques used for the purpose of analysing risk and return include event study and non-parametric tests, as well as asset pricing models supplemented with interaction variables and a variety of ARCH-like specifications such as GARCH, TARCH, EGARCH and PARCH. We find evidence for the wealth effect, the presence of delayed response and a risk shifting behaviour in the form of diamond risk structure. Our results show that abnormal returns are present around the announcements of operating rules and other stock market regulations. Abnormal returns can also be obtained after considering legal documents such as circulars and decisions.     

The conditional influence of term spread and pattern changes on future equity returns

We extend previous research examining the relation between interest rates and equity returns using a multivariate analysis of covariance model with a dynamic yield curve and conditioned term spread. We find yield pattern changes predict economic equity returns; that the long end-of-yield curve is a strong determinant factor; and, in contrast to previous research, we find no relation between a decrease in the short rate and equity returns. However, the conditional term spread captures a significant positive return indicating that the degree of decline in the short rate relative to the long rate is of more importance than the term spread alone.     

我国上市公司再融资与财务业绩动态变化研究

本文对上市公司再融资的3种形式及对财务业绩在时间上的变化进行了分析，提出了无论配股、增发新股、发行可转换债3种方式对财务指标的影响是下滑的，而对企业的核心业务是增强的，但不显著。发行可转债优于配股和增发。     

Seasoned equity offerings by all-equity firms

Previous studies on the announcement effect of seasoned equity offerings document an average two-day common stock abnormal return of approximately −3%. The overall results from these studies suggest that capital structure hypothesis, information hypothesis, and/or price-pressure hypothesis offers a potential explanation for the abnormal reaction around the announcement date. This paper controls for capital structure related effects by examining the announcement effect of seasoned equity offerings made by all-equity firms. Our results show that the average two-day common stock abnormal return is −0.82% (significant at 5% level). This result suggests that capital structure related effects constitute a major portion of the announcement effect of seasoned equity offerings studied in the previous literature. Furthermore, the negative abnormal returns following equity issues cannot be attributed entirely to capital structure related effects. Our cross-sectional tests indicate that the information hypothesis is significant in explaining the abnormal reaction. While our results do not support the price-pressure hypothesis, we find that the negative reaction around the announcement date is significantly mitigated if a firm has issued stock more frequently during our sample period.     

The effects of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets

The event study methodology of Brown and Warner (1985) is adopted and augmented to evaluate the effect of the launch of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets. The methodology is supplemented with various techniques, such as the nonparametric ranking test and kernel regression, to find out if announcements about the introduction of Chi-X Australia generated abnormal returns (ARs). Asset pricing models are fitted with interaction variables, while GARCH, threshold ARCH (TARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and power-ARCH (PARCH) are used to determine changes in systematic risk. We find evidence in favour of Fisher’s separation theorem and detect a new market anomaly, which we call the ‘Fisher market anomaly’. Our results show that Chi-X system testings affect ARs. Consistent with the adaptive expectations theory, we confirm that the first announcement about the launch of Chi-X affected systematic risk the most. In addition, we identify industry and firm effects in risk analysis.     

Patents and R&D expenditure effects on equity returns in pharmaceutical industry

As costs of pharmaceutical R&D soar and productivity falls, the role of research pipelines in firm valuations is changing. To date, surprisingly little work has been published on the effects of R&D pipeline performance on equity returns, while controlling for coincident factors, such as legacy patents and presence of blockbuster drugs in production. Using 1996–2013 data for nine largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, this article assesses the role of the above factors on returns to pharmaceutical companies equity. We show significant positive link between changes in the number of blockbusters on patent six months prior and returns in excess of pharmaceutical equity index. The number of patents granted by United States Patent and Trademark Office in a quarter is also a significant factor. On the other hand, we find that increases in R&D expenditure in large-cap pharmaceutical companies are viewed negatively by investors in the short term.     

我国基于总收益形式与超额收益形式估计的证券贝塔比较分析

经过简化的基于总收益形式的指数模型被经常用来估计证券贝塔,但这个模型没有理论依据。由于我国无风险利率的方差与市场收益的方差变动比较起来非常小,短期无风险利率的实际变动对贝塔估计值影响很小,因此,从“预测”的角度看,用总收益形式的单指数模型估计贝塔值可以完全替代具有理论基础的超额收益形式的单指数模型估计的贝塔。     

Bank excess returns and unconventional monetary policy

During the Global Recession, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and the European Central Bank have implemented a series of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures. We argue that these programmes increased bank equity values in both the US and Europe via asset pricing channels. Using an event-study approach, we find that announcement of UMP actions amplified bank excess returns, especially during the first round of quantitative easing in the US and outright monetary transaction programmes in Europe. We also find evidence supporting market beta shifts subsequent of some major UMP announcements. Using the estimated shadow rates, we provide further empirical evidence on the continuous effect of monetary policy shocks on bank excess returns. Our results show that bank excess returns responded at least twice as stronger to monetary policy actions at the zero lower bound.     

Option implied beta and option return

We study the information content of option-implied betas for future equity option returns, using data on the S&P 500 index options and all of the component stock options. We find a significantly strong relation between option-implied betas and option returns cross-sectional. The paper presents evidence that call (put) option returns increase (decrease) with the option-implied betas of the underlying stock. A trading strategy of buying high (low) implied beta call (put) option portfolio and selling low (high) implied beta call (put) option portfolio generates a statistically and economically significant return. Our results are robustly persistent even after controlling for various cross-sectional effects and are not explained by the risk factors in asset pricing.     

Pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating changes on stock returns: a fact or factoid?

This article examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four-factor model, it records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements on stock market returns. Both magnitude and significance of the effect vary with business cycle and across announcement types. However, we do not find evidence of pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on stock returns. Our results show that stock markets react more negatively to rating downgrades in recovery phases and more positively to rating upgrades in contractionary period. Both results are statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests.     

Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?

The recent consultative papers by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has raised the possibility of an explicit role for external rating agencies in the assessment of the credit risk of banks' assets, including interbank claims. Any judgement on the merits of this proposal calls for an assessment of the information contained in credit ratings and its relationship to other publicly available information on the financial health of banks and borrowers. We assess this issue via an event study of rating change announcements by leading international rating agencies, focusing on rating changes for European banks for which data on bond and equity prices are available. We find little evidence of announcement effects on bond prices, which may reflect the lack of liquidity in bond markets in Europe during much of our sample period. For equity prices, we find strong effects of ratings changes, although some of our results may suffer from contamination by contemporaneous news events. We also test for pre-announcement and post-announcement effects, but find little evidence of either. Overall, our results suggest that ratings agencies may perform a useful role in summarizing and obtaining non-public information on banks and that monitoring of banks' risk through bond holders appears to be relatively limited in Europe. The relatively weak monitoring by bondholders casts some doubt on the effectiveness of a subordinated debt requirement as a supervisory tool in the European context, at least until bond markets are more developed.
(J.E.L.: E53, G21, G33)     

Drivers of price reaction to rights issue announcements in the Kuwait Stock Exchange

This study examines the drivers behind stock price reactions to announcements of rights issues by firms listed on the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange for the period 2003–2013. We find higher cumulative abnormal returns for firms that undertake larger issues, with the issue size reflecting the availability of favourable investment opportunities and their potential positive impact on firms’ earnings. We also document a positive price reaction in firms that are affiliated with a family group. We interpret this as evidence that the proceeds of the rights offering would be employed effectively when the firm is controlled by a family firm. No evidence was found for the price pressure and pricing effects.     

The role of legal status in influencing bank financing and new firm growth

We provide an empirical assessment of the suggestion, based on Severo (2012), to use a systemic liquidity risk index (SLRI) for estimating liquidity premia that could be charged on large banks as a compensation for the implicit liquidity support obtained from public authorities (Blancher et al., 2013). To this end we compute, over the period January 2004–December 2012, a parsimonious and fully documented SLRI. We also investigate its statistical significance in explaining the level and variability of stock returns for a group of large international banks across the subprime and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises. Main findings are two: our more parsimonious SLRI is close to Severo’s but provides a stronger signal of liquidity stress and recovery episodes; we consistently fail to detect, within and across the two crises, a stable group of banks among the global systemically important ones listed by the Financial Stability Board.     

Brand capital and firm value

We study the role of brand capital – a primary form of intangible capital – for firm valuation and risk in the cross section of publicly traded firms. Using an empirical measure of brand capital stock constructed from advertising expenditures accounting data, we show that: (i) firms with low brand capital investment rates have higher average stock returns than firms with high brand capital investment rates, a difference of 5.2% per annum; (ii) more brand capital intensive firms have higher average stock returns than less brand capital intensive firms, a difference of 5.1% per annum; and (iii) investment in both brand capital and physical capital is volatile and procyclical. A neoclassical investment-based model in which brand capital is a factor of production subject to adjustment costs matches the data well. The model also provides a novel explanation for the empirical links between advertising expenditures and stock returns around seasoned equity offerings (SEO) documented in previous studies.     

信息不对称、分析师关注度与增发折价

以2006—2010年间实施新股增发的我国沪深A股上市公司为样本,研究分析师关注度对增发折价的影响。研究发现:分析师关注度较高的上市公司具有较低的投资者间估值分歧和增发折价;分析师能力和盈余预测分歧对增发折价没有显著影响;分析师关注度的提高给分析师能力强的公司带来的增发折价降低幅度大于给分析师能力不强的公司带来的效果。     

中国居民消费与资产收益:基于收入群体的分析

The equity premium puzzle is found during the test of the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) with aggregate consumption data. Because of income disparity, many consumers lack financial assets to intertemporally allocate their consumptions under income constraints. Thus, it is likely to lead to a specification error by employing aggregate consumption data to test the CCAPM. This paper examines the impacts of the economically constrained (low-income) consumers and unconstrained (high-income) consumers on the CCAPM using urban consumption expenditures in China delineated by consumer income, and tests the income constraint hypothesis. The empirical results show that the CCAPM is not more consistent with the consumption pattern of the higher-income consumers. Including the income constraint into the analyses of the consumption and asset returns does not unravel the equity premium puzzle.      

上市公司股权融资选择：私募还是公募?

本文对A股定向增发和公开增发分析后认为:就财务型股权融资而言,在老股东财富最大化原则下,在未来新项目净现值为正的情况下,股价高估的公司选择公开增发,股价低估的公司选择定向增发。定向增发方式可以缓解信息不对称带来的投资不足问题,可以解释公告后正的超额收益。     

Bank acquisitions of investment dealers: Canadian evidence and implications for Glass-Steagall reform

This paper analyzes the 1987 change in Canadian legislation permitting commercial banks to engage in investment banking, and makes comparisons to the US, where similar regulatory change is under way. The study focuses on the impact of such regulatory change on issue costs for corporations raising seasoned common equity. The findings indicate that although regulatory reform per se has had no effect on issue costs, costs for issues handled by a bank-owned underwriter are lower than those handled by an independent underwriter. The lower cost may be indicative of the availability of economies of scope between underwriting and commercial banking. First Version Received: Nov. 1998 / Final Version Received: March 2000     

Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets

We analyze foreign news and spillovers in the emerging EU stock markets (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland). We employ high‐frequency five‐minute intraday data on stock market index returns and four classes of EU and US macroeconomic announcements during 2004–07. We account for the difference of each announcement from its market expectation and we jointly model the volatility of the returns accounting for intraday movements and day‐of‐the‐week effects. Our findings show that intraday interactions on the new EU markets are strongly determined by mature stock markets as well as the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We show that strong contemporaneous links across markets are present even after controlling for macroeconomic announcements. Finally, in terms of specific announcements, we are able to show the exact sources of macro news spillovers from the developed foreign markets to the three new EU markets under research.