THE MORPHOLOGY OF PRICE DISPERSION

This article is a study of the shape and structure of the distribution of prices at which an identical good is sold in a given market and time period. We find that the typical price distribution is symmetric and leptokurtic, with a standard deviation between 19% and 36%. Only 10% of the variance of prices is due to variation in the expensiveness of the stores at which a good is sold, whereas the remaining 90% is due, in approximately equal parts, to differences in the average price of a good across equally expensive stores and to differences in the price of a good across transactions at the same store. We show that the distribution of prices that households pay for the same bundle of goods is approximately Normal, with a standard deviation between 9% and 14%. Half of this dispersion is due to differences in the expensiveness of the stores where households shop, whereas the other half is mostly due to differences in households' choices of which goods to purchase at which stores. We find that households with fewer employed members pay lower prices and do so by visiting a larger number of stores instead of by shopping more frequently.     

Price Dispersion and the Role of Stores*

In this paper, we study price dispersion in the Norwegian retail market for 766 products across 4,297 stores over 60 months. Price dispersion for homogeneous products is significant and persistent, with a coefficient of variation of 37 percent for the median product. Price dispersion differs between product categories and over time. Store heterogeneity accounts for 30 percent of the observed variation in prices for the median product–month, and for around 50 percent for the sample as a whole. Price dispersion is still prevalent after correcting for store heterogeneity.     

Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities

This study proposes a new measure of the tradability of 120+ commodities based on price dispersion. This approach is used to construct price indices of tradables and non-tradables for 150+ countries. The expenditure share of tradables is lower for richer countries, while the relative price of non-tradables, which plays an important role in the determination of real exchange rates, is higher. Secondly, a common-factor approach (based on principal components) is introduced to compress the large volume of information on prices and quantities consumed globally. We find that cross-commodity correlations are higher for prices than for consumption. In addition, income is responsible for most of the variation in the first principal component of consumption but explains less of the first price component. This suggests consumption are driven primarily by domestic factors, while prices are determined by factors outside the country, along the lines of the Purchasing Power Parity theory.     

Price response,information, and asymmetry of price dispersion

In this study, we examine how differently gasoline prices in 25 regions of Seoul, Korea respond to asymmetric information between retailers and consumers. We estimate the region-specific likelihood that retailers engage in price undercutting under asymmetric information and investigate inter-regional differences. We find that in response to increases in wholesale price, regions with a high likelihood of price undercutting experience intensified gas station price competition while dispersions of price and markups tend to decrease more in response to cost shocks. Understanding the geographical dispersion of retailers’ price responses to information frictions and search intensity is crucial to lowering information barriers across regions and redistributing profit among market participants.     

A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before strengthening after 2020. There is evidence that this time variation is related to the pace of price changes, as we find that the maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against asserting a simple, time-invariant relationship when modeling the joint dynamics of monetary aggregates and consumer prices.     

我国酒店业网上价格波动的供给面原因分析

网络技术的发展，互联网渗透到各行各业，与我们商业和生活密不可分，其中应用最为成功的一个领域是网上旅游市场。本文希望通过实证方法，对订房网站进行抽样调查，探索网上订房的报价和价格波动情况，度量波动程度，初步从供给面来探讨影响波动的原因。我们发现品牌（星级）、质量（房型）和经济环境（城市）对价格波动产生影响。     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Investigation of the Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Commodity Prices

This study proposes a full Bayesian nonparametric procedure to investigate the predictive power of exchange rates in relation to commodity prices for three commodity-exporting countries: Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. We propose a new time-dependent infinite mixture of a normal linear regression model of the conditional distribution of the commodity price index. The mixing weights follow a set of Probit stick-breaking priors that are time-varying. We find that exchange rates have a positive predictive effect in general, but accounting for time variation does not improve forecasting performance. By contrast, the intercept in the regression and the lagged dependent variable show signs of parameter change over time in most cases, which is important in forecasting both the mean and the density of commodity prices one period ahead. The results also suggest that the variance is a large source of the time variation in the conditional distribution of commodity prices.     

Geographic price dispersion in retail markets: Evidence from micro-data

Using an extensive micro-price data of 266 retail goods and services across US, EU and OECD cities between 1990 and 2005, we study characteristics of geographic dispersion of deviations from the Law of One Price. We find that the magnitude of price dispersion is a function of the characteristics of both the type of good and set of locations under examination. Higher share of non-traded inputs and lower tradability of goods are both found to contribute to geographic price dispersion, with the former typically dominating in explanatory power. The role of tradability of good in accounting for the price dispersion is more significant as we move beyond an economic geography, while non-traded input level matters relatively more if we move to the interior of this geography. Our evidence suggests that the models of real exchange rates should incorporate the classical distinction between traded inputs and local inputs as well as a role for relative markups and traditional trade costs.     

PRICE DISPERSION AND DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

I use the Prescott (1975) hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in Chicago. The effect of uncertainty about aggregate demand on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important: My estimates suggest that more than 40% of the cross‐sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty. I also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good (across stores and weeks) and with the number of stores that sell the good.     

Dispersion in Dispersion: Measuring Establishment-Level Differences in Productivity

We describe new experimental productivity dispersion statistics, Dispersion Statistics on Productivity (DiSP), jointly produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, that complement the official BLS industry-level productivity statistics. The BLS has a long history of producing industry-level productivity statistics, which represent the average establishment-level productivity within industries when appropriately weighted. These statistics cannot, however, tell us about the variation in productivity levels across establishments within those industries. Dispersion in productivity across businesses can provide information about the nature of competition and frictions within sectors and the sources of rising wage inequality across businesses. DiSP data show enormous differences in productivity across establishments within industries in the manufacturing sector. We find substantial variation in dispersion across industries, increasing dispersion from 1997 to 2016, and countercyclical total factor productivity dispersion. We hope DiSP will enable further research into understanding productivity differences across industries and establishments and over time.     

Food Prices and Market Structure in Sweden

This paper examines retail grocery price levels across a large panel of stores in Sweden. We explain price variation across stores by market structure variables to capture differences in competition intensity and a number of store– and region–specific factors. Most of the explained variation in prices can be attributed to store–specific factors such as size and chain affiliation. Overall, the relation between market structure variables and food prices is weak, and effects are small in percentage terms. Nevertheless, higher local concentration of stores, higher regional wholesaler concentration and a lower market share of large stores are all correlated with higher prices.
JEL classification : D 43; L 13; L 81     

The effect of distance and road quality on food collection, marketing margins, and traders' wages: evidence from the former Zaire

Food price variation is typical of the food economies of many low income countries. The presence or absence of road infrastructure is perceived to be one of the main determinants of this variation. This analysis shows that in the case of the former Zaire, food price dispersion is significant both across products and across regions. It is demonstrated that transportation costs explain most of the differences in food prices between producer regions and that road quality is an important factor in the transportation costs. However, food prices decrease relatively faster than transportation costs increase and traders' wages are higher on bad roads.     

Oil prices and UK industry-level stock returns

In this article, we study whether the behaviour of oil prices can be used as a reliable predictor for the disaggregated industry-level stock market indices. We find strong evidence for the relevance of changes in oil price as a predictor for the returns of UK industry portfolios, while this relevance is heterogeneous across industries. In an out-of-sample framework, we find that both the contemporaneous and lagged oil price changes do predict UK industry stock market returns. The predictive power is more transient for the latter case, and mostly appearing after allowing for time variation in the relative performance. In addition, we find some evidence of asymmetry in the oil–stock price relationships.     

Innovation and price: the case of digital cameras

This study examines a hedonic regression model of digital camera prices using data collected from an internet price comparison service. We find that a small number of product characteristics explains most of the variation in camera prices. In addition, the model demonstrates substantial downward pressure on camera prices during the time period considered. We also examine technological innovation shocks to determine their impact on product prices. We find that the corresponding price reaction exhibits gradual adjustment over time, providing evidence of some degree of anticipation of the innovation, as well as a post-innovation price shock. This study also demonstrates the power of web-based shopping services as a new and novel source of data for econometric analysis.     

An improved framework for approximating option prices with application to option portfolio hedging

As the price of the underlying asset changes over time, delta of the option changes and a gamma hedge is required along with delta hedge to reduce risk. This paper develops an improved framework to compute delta and gamma values with the average of a range of underlying prices rather than at the conventional fixed ‘one point’. We find that models with time-varying volatility price options satisfactorily, and perform remarkably well in combination with the delta and delta-gamma approximations. Significant improvements are achieved for the GARCH model followed by stochastic volatility models. The new approach can ensure significant improvement in modelling option prices leading to better risk-management decision-making.     

A laboratory study of advertising and price competition

We use a laboratory experiment to study advertising and pricing behavior in a market where consumers differ in price sensitivity. Equilibrium in this market entails variation in the number of firms advertising and price dispersion in advertised prices. We vary the cost to advertise as well as varying the number of competing firms. Theory predicts that advertising costs act as a facilitating device: higher costs increase firm profits at the expense of consumers. We find that higher advertising costs decrease demand for advertising and raise advertised prices, as predicted. Further, this comes at the expense of consumers. However, advertising strategies are more aggressive than theory predicts with the result that firm profits do not increase.     

Accounting for the "Subnational Penn Effect"—A General Theory of Regional and National Price Levels

As an extension of the neoclassical urban systems theory (Henderson, 1974), we develop a general theory of regional (inter-city) price dispersion which also explains the “subnational Penn effect,” i.e., cross-city correlations among population size, prices, real income and human capital stock. The model is also a theory of international price dispersion that is observationally equivalent to and more appealing than the Balassa-Samuelson theory, implying that the (international) Penn effect may simply be an aggregate result of the “subnational Penn effect.” Furthermore, it shows that, contrary to the popular view, economic integration can increase as well as decrease spatial price variation.     

An experimental study of price dispersion

We report an experiment examining a simple clearinghouse model that generates price dispersion. According to this model, price dispersion arises because of consumer heterogeneity—some consumers are “informed” and simply buy from the firm offering the lowest price, while the remaining consumers are “captive” and shop based on considerations other than price. In our experiment we observe substantial and persistent price dispersion. We find that, as predicted, an increase in the fraction of informed consumers leads to more competitive pricing for all consumers. We also find, as predicted, that when more firms enter the market, prices to informed consumers become more competitive while prices to captive customers become less competitive. Thus, our experiment provides strong support for the model's comparative static predictions about how changes in market structure affect pricing.     

Thai inflation dynamics: A view from disaggregated price data

This paper utilizes disaggregated prices at the micro level to examine the patterns of price adjustment in Thailand. Among the key stylized facts, we found that the frequency of price changes are generally low, prices decreases are common, the size of price changes are large relative to the inflation rate, and there is significant dispersion in price levels as well as in the synchronicity of price changes across regions. To better understand the underlying sources of heterogeneous price dynamics, we conduct dynamic factor analyses and highlight the importance of relative price changes in driving the bulk of overall CPI movements. This suggests an important role of non-monetary factors in driving inflation. A significant Phillips curve relation is detected once idiosyncratic price changes are filtered out, reinforcing the importance of disaggregated analysis of price trends in the conduct of monetary policy.     

Price convergence in the European Union – What has changed?

This paper investigates price convergence in European Union countries using disaggregated price level indices in the period 1999–2016. Our results show that prices of both tradable and nontradable goods had a significantly lower dispersion in 2016 than in 1999. The convergence was faster in the case of countries with price level below the average, which can be interpreted as catching-up. However, further analysis shows that most prices converged only up to 2008. While prices of transport equipment continue to converge across the European Union, several durable consumption categories show price divergence after 2008. We attribute this to the drop in international trade of durable products due to increasing inflation and exchange rates volatility following the global financial crisis. From the monetary policy perspective, the existing price-level gaps, shown in our study, may pose a risk of higher inflation, especially in catching-up economies.