Growth Patterns and Inequality in the Presence of Costly Technology Adoption

The stylized facts that motivate this article include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. We interpret the adoption cost as the resources expended in acquiring skills associated with new technologies. Endogenous growth occurs in our model largely as a result of human capital deepening. The analytical results of the model characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These outcomes are labeled ‘poverty trap,’ ‘dual economy,’ and ‘balanced growth.’ The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns in addition to the divergence of incomes over time and across countries.     

China＇s New Rural Income Support Policy： Impacts on Grain Production and Rural Income Inequality

I. Introduction Since the beginning of 2004, the Chinese Government has replaced its centuries-old policy of taxing agriculture by a new policy aimed at subsidizing agriculture and stimulating rural incomes. To this end, agricultural taxes – standing at around 8 percent of agricultural incomes – were drastically reduced. By now they are abolished in most provinces. Inaddition, farmers growing grain receive a direct income subsidy, new seed varieties and mechanization are subsidized, and la…     

福建农村人力资本水平与农民收入

采用国家统计局福建农村住户调查数据,实证分析了农户家庭人力资本水平与家庭收入之间的关系,结果表明:户主的文化程度越高,农户家庭的总收入越高,家庭收入中来自稳定的收入越多,收入来源越多样化,家庭的生活水平越稳定。随着家庭平均教育水平的提高,农户家庭的收入也不断提高,教育投资的收入弹性呈递增趋势,随着时间的推进,教育对收入的效应逐渐加大。从培训来看,接受培训的农户家庭,其收入明显高于未接受者培训的家庭的人均纯收入,而且随着家庭劳动力接受培训次数的增加,家庭收入也不断增加。     

农户地租契约选择的经济逻辑:预期效用抑或损失规避

随着收入水平和社会保障水平的提高,农户的经济决策动机逐渐从风险(成本)最低转变为收益最大。但是,地租契约的不完全性等因素,可能使农户在选择地租契约时,需要在收益(租金)的可靠性和收益最大化之间进行权衡。文章理论分析表明,农户在选择地租契约时,其经济逻辑是损失规避而非预期效用理论。进而,文章利用中国家庭金融2015年调查数据,通过probit、IVprobit和似无相关回归模型检验了这一理论假说。研究结果显示,租金水平越高,农户越倾向于选择固定地租契约;消除内生性后的边际效应显示,租金提高每万元,农户选择固定租金契约的概率提高28.3%。机制分析发现,土地流转契约期限的增加会强化租金对农地转出户选择固定租金契约的影响。运用工具变量估计、交叉项和费舍尔组合检验三种方法进行稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。进一步的异质性分析结果表明,租金对固定地租契约的促进效应,在低收入农户中相对更高;在低收入农户中,契约期限不具有调节作用。研究结果为地租领域农户财产性收入的增加与政策预期的不一致,提供了理论解释与经验证据。基于此,文章提出为使农户通过地租获得更多的财产性收入,需要进一步完善农地流转契约治理机制等政策建议。     

Economic Crisis,Small Farmer Well-Being,and Forest Cover Change in Indonesia

Field research was conducted on 1,050 Indonesian households to understand the effects of the Asian economic crisis on the well-being of small farmers outside of Java and on their forest-clearing practices. The main findings are: (a) most farmers perceived themselves as worse off during the crisis than before, challenging the claim that farmers with export income would be better off and (b) forest clearing by farmers increased significantly during the crisis to expand rubber holdings and other tree crops, with the aim of increasing future income security. Among the policy lessons are that crop diversification and targeted aid can minimize impoverishment and avert increased forest clearing following macroeconomic destabilization.     

略谈韩国对农业的重视及其启示

韩国是中国的海上邻国，韩国对农业的重视使其农业高速发展，农民收入迅速增加。这对于推进我国农业的发展，加强农民教育，促进农民增收，实现农业增效均有重要启示。     

The role of bamboo plantations in rural development: The case of Anji County,Zhejiang, China

Bamboos have often been viewed as inferior products, labeled as the “poor man's timber.” Development groups have proposed bamboo production as an opportunity for increasing the wealth of the lower-income groups. This paper is a study of the household economy of 200 bamboo farmers in eight townships of Anji County in China. The authors describe the process of transformation of rural China from communes to the household responsibility system, the differentiated rate of development among farmers and the role of bamboo in that change. A multiple regression analysis was carried out to study the factors that influence farmers' incomes and their evolution. A warning is sounded against using bamboo production to target low-income groups, as well as relying solely on aggregated data when drawing conclusions on income disparities in China.     

Savings behaviour in low-income countries

The empirical literature on savings in low-income countrieshas exploited some remarkable data sets to shed new light onsavings behaviour in the poor agricultural households that makeup the majority of the population in such countries. A numberof conclusions have emerged: (i) the degree of consumption smoothingover seasons within the year and across years, in response tovery large income fluctuations, is higher than was supposed;(ii) the lack of complete insurance and credit markets, however,is manifested in asset stocks and asset compositions among farmers,especially small farmers, that are inefficient; (iii) the combinationof low and volatile incomes is an important cause of inefficiencyand income inequality; (iv) the proximity of formal financialinstitutions increases financial savings and crowds out informalinsurance arrangements, thus, in principle, better facilitatingfinancial intermediation; and (iv) simple life-cycle modelsof savings do not appear to explain long-term savings in low-incomesettings.     

Distribution policy under trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe: a CGE analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate theeconomy-wide and income distribution effects of transfer policiesto the poor. The model consists of seven income distributiongroups - communal farmers, resettlement farmers, unskilled workers,agricultural wage workers, skilled workers, industrial capitalistsand agricultural profit earners. The first four groups are treatedas a low income group and the last three as a high income group.Experiments to increase each of the low income groups' incomesby 5% using different sources of finance are simulated usingthe model. These are: an increase in government expenditurewithout budget balancing measures; an increase in governmenttransfers offset by a decrease in government spending elsewhere;and an increase in direct or indirect taxes. The results ofsuch experiments indicate that a policy of increasing directtaxes and increasing the government deficit in order to supportthe transfers are favourable in terms of increased incomes inthe short run. A policy of increasing indirect taxes and transferringthe revenue raised to the poor ranks last in terms of reducingincome inequalities. Finally, targeted transfers are generallybetter than universal transfers in terms of their benefits tolow income groups and in reducing income inequalities betweenthe low income and the high income groups.     

The Kuznets curve: Evidence from Prussia revisited

Conclusions To avoid confusion arising from mixing up methods, the methodological arsenal was restricted to the computation of percentiles as this was the favoured device in the Kuznets-paper. But with an increasing population the interpretation of rising percentiles is by no means straightforward (which is equally true with other measures of inequality). When the number of income-receiving units and their mean income are held constant, rising shares of the top-income receivers can be interpreted in terms of “rich people getting richer and poor people getting poorer”. But when both, the number of units and their mean income are rising, the interpretation of rising percentiles is quite a problem. For example, aggregating two populations with all percentiles alike (i.e. identical Lorenz curves) but different mean incomes would result in a greater population with increased shares of the top-income receivers and lessened shares of the low-income receivers (i.e. a Lorenz curve more close to the boundaries of the rectangle). It is obvious from this example that the welfare implications of increasing percentiles cannot be separated from the welfare implications of rising mean incomes. Especially, with rising populations and rising mean incomes the income shares of the top-income receivers may very well increase without any poor man getting poorer, so that not even Rawls [1971] would necessarily object to such a development. Bearing these limitations in mind, the outcomes of the previous sections may be summarized in confirming Kuznets’ surmise that income inequality in Prussia increased within the second half of the last century. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the peak was most probably reached around the turn of the century with the First World War merely fortifying the equalizing tendencies which originated from the economic development process itself.     

农民收入增长缓慢的制度因素分析

农民收入增长缓慢已经成为当前我国农村社会经济发展的突出矛盾。其中制度因素是最根本的制约因素之一,政策和制度因素强烈地影响着农民的社会地位和经济利益。通过对农民收入增长缓慢的制约因素分析,提出增加农民收入的措施。     

Determinants of animal traction adoption in traditional agriculture: An application of the multivariate probit procedure to the case of Lesotho

This study identifies the socio-economic factors responsible for the adoption of animal traction in the Maseru district, Lesotho. Data for the study were obtained from a cross-section of farmers, using a two-stage random sampling technique to purposively select both adopters and nonadopters of animal traction technology. The probit model was employed to analyse the data, using the maximum likelihood estimation technique to identify quantifiably the effects of selected variables on animal traction adoption in the study area. The results of the study indicate that the adoption of animal traction in the area of study is equally sensitive to both sociological and economic factors, the most significant being the number of work animals and farm income, respectively. It is specifically recommended, among other things, that efforts be made to advance credit to poor farmers as a motivation towards increased animal traction adoption. This would increase farm output and income in the study area in particular, and in other areas with similar agro-ecological and institutional conditions that might be contemplating introducing this particular technology.     

借鉴国外经验 扩大中等收入者比重

扩大中产阶级,国外有成功经验与失败教训。我国中等收入者正处于发育成长的关键时期,具有“财产”和“职业”的双重特性,力量小,较脆弱。其发展面临着低收入群体提升困难、强势群体“强强联合”、收入分配制度不完善、经济政治社会发展不协调等诸多问题。政府应借鉴国外经验,供给农民制度,加快税法建设,深化收入分配制度改革,统筹经济政治社会协调发展等,以扩大中等收入者比重。     

劳动者收入与扩大消费需求——基于经济增长模式转型背景

在经济增长模式转型背景下研究我国劳动者收入问题对于扩大消费需求具有十分重要的影响:当前我国劳动者持久性收入过低以及持久性收入的不稳定性、预防性特征抑制了居民消费需求的增长;劳动者暂时性收入的不确定性特征降低了居民的消费需求。如果能够通过大幅增加劳动者的持久性收入,就可以使劳动者形成对未来收入的稳定性预期,这对扩大国内消费需求和经济增长模式的转型具有非常重要的作用。因此,为提高劳动者收入和扩大居民的消费需求,本文提出以下对策建议:建立工资正常增长机制和支付保障机制;调整国民收入分配结构;建立完善的社会保障制度;深化金融体制改革,创新金融工具。     

Dairy farming,cooperatives and livelihoods: lessons learned from six indian villages

India's dairy sector has emerged as the world's largest dairy producer and has enabled 70 million farmers to generate income through its rapid growth. This success is linked to broad national policy support through the Operation Flood program and the emergence of an inclusive model of cooperatives. However, the informal sector is still the marketing channel most used by dairy producers, and with the liberalization of the dairy sector, the cooperative model is also facing competition from the private sector. By surveying 244 dairy farmers in two major but heterogeneous states in India, this paper examines the inclusiveness of the sector and the impact of dairy cooperative membership on farmers’ income and livelihood. The originality of the paper concerns its systematic perspective on households’ assets and activities. The results indicate that cooperative membership is associated with caste membership and farmers collection centers. Better incomes are associated with membership, particularly among farmers with less land and among smallholders, who are more dependent on their dairy income to lift themselves out of poverty.     

Income shocks,coping strategies,and consumption smoothing: An application to Indonesian data

Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey, this study investigates whether Indonesian farmers respond differently to income shocks (crop loss) depending on the level of their asset ownership, and whether their responses are aimed at preserving consumption levels or at accumulating assets. We consider a framework in which assets contribute directly to the income generation process. In this context, the need to accumulate assets to ensure future income may lead poor farmers to behave quite differently in terms of both their responses to shocks and their consumption decisions. Our results suggest that while non-poor farmers smooth consumption relative to income, poor households use labor supply to compensate the income loss and, on average, they save half of this extra income. These results confirm the importance of savings for poor households, and highlight a crucial role for policies that support savings or, more precisely, the accumulation of productive assets.     

The quest for affordable urban housing: A study of approaches and results in Harare,Zimbabwe

Approaches aimed at achieving housing affordability have long emphasised the housing unit. Conventional wisdom prescribes that affordability will be enhanced if the unit cost of a house is reduced. Classic solutions include the reduction of standards, use of indigenous technologies and materials, adopting self-help modes of delivery and addressing market imperfections. This study shows that while it is not unwise to reduce the cost of housing, there is a limit to this approach. Unit costs cannot be reduced indefinitely and non-cost-reducing strategies are therefore called for. The approaches hinge on improving the economic status of low-income groups by implementing measures that reduce household expenditure and/or boost their incomes.     

Incentives versus equality: What does China's recent experience show?

Since 1978, China's economic policies have stressed differential rewards for higher productivity, particularly through the contract system in rural areas. This has permitted and encouraged some families to achieve relatively high incomes. However, there was considerable inequality in China before 1978, particularly the persistent and wide disparity between urban and rural incomes. The economic reform has had some tendency to increase slightly the share of income received by the very top group and to reduce slightly the share of the bottom one-third. However, the principal effects have been to raise total income for most residents and to reduce substantially the urban-rural gap.     

农民科技素养与农民增收互动研究——福建连江县调研

近年来,我国农民的科技素质有了显著改善,学科技,用科技的主动性有了明显的提高。促进这一因素的关键在于农民科技素质的提高与增收之间存在互动的关系,科技带来农民增收,农民增收后投入科技、用科技主动性相应增加。因此,考察科技与农民增收仍具有现实意义。     

Global Retail Chains and Poor Farmers: Evidence from Madagascar

Global retail companies (“supermarkets”) have an increasing influence on developing countries, through foreign investments and/or through the imposition of their private standards. The impact on developing countries and poverty is often assessed as negative. In this paper we show the opposite, based on an analysis of primary data collected to measure the impact of supermarkets on small contract farmers in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost 10,000 farmers in the Highlands of Madagascar produce vegetables for supermarkets in Europe. In this global supply chain, small farmers’ micro-contracts are combined with intensive farm assistance and supervision programs to fulfill complex quality requirements and phyto-sanitary standards of supermarkets. Small farmers that participate in these contracts have higher welfare, more income stability and shorter lean periods. We also find significant effects on improved technology adoption, better resource management and spillovers on the productivity of the staple crop rice. The small but emerging modern retail sector in Madagascar does not (yet) deliver these benefits as they do not (yet) request the same high standards for their supplies.