An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.     

Reaching up and reaching out: The impact of competition on firms’ productivity and export decisions

Using firm‐level data from 139 countries, this paper investigates the effect of competition in both the domestic and foreign markets on firm productivity and export decisions. Applying a sample selection endogenous treatment (SSET) Poisson model that tackles both the issue of endogenous sample selection and endogenous treatment at the same time, we document robust evidence that strong competition in the domestic market propels firms to be more productive, and decreasing domestic competition increases firms’ propensity to export. However, firms’ export intensity (i.e. how much they export) is not directly influenced by competition in the domestic market. Moreover, lower competition in the foreign market increases the propensity of domestic firms to export, enlarging the set of exporting firms to include firms with relatively smaller export amounts.     

Search within or beyond the industrial cluster? The effect of perceived competition and knowledge base tacitness on strategic location choices of external knowledge search

ABSTRACT

From a knowledge-based perspective, this paper highlights the need for a framework linking perceived competition of the industry and firms’ strategic location choices of external knowledge search and examines whether the perceived competition increases the propensity of cluster firms to search more widely from extra-cluster knowledge sources than intra-cluster knowledge sources. Furthermore, we emphasise that cluster firms with varying degrees of tacitness in their knowledge base might respond to such competition differently when conducting external knowledge search activities. Using a sample of 310 cluster firms in the Zhejiang Province of China, we find that the cluster firm would increase the propensity for more geographic boundary-spanning search relative to local search while under the pressure of competition. Moreover, the positive relationship between perceived competition and the propensity towards geographic knowledge search is weaker when the tacitness of the cluster firm’s knowledge base is higher. The findings contribute to the understanding of the relationship between competition and the choice of location strategies in external knowledge search.     

Foreign direct investment,international trade,and firm heterogeneity

We present an asymmetric model with firm heterogeneity and foreign direct investment (FDI) from a developed country to a developing country. We found that the successful entry firms could be sorted from highest to lowest according to productivity as reimport firms, FDI firms, export firms, and domestic firms. We also found that FDI decreases (increases) the gross national income of the developed (developing) country, but it can either increase or decrease the world income according to the level of the relative propensity to spend. In addition, we demonstrated that FDI influences welfare through variations in average price, national income, and the number of types of goods.     

人口预期寿命与退休年龄

人口寿命的不断延长给中国养老事业带来越来越大的压力.文章在两期交叠世代模型的基础上引入退休,在市场完全竞争、充分就业和政府能够控制退休年龄的假设前提下,在个人、企业和政府的行为以及资本市场均衡的层面构建了一般均衡的模型框架,从社会计划者的角度发现福利最大化下的人口预期寿命变化和退休年龄是正相关的,并呈现出负反比例的函数形式.文章还基于参数估计和赋值模拟的方法,求解出了人口预期寿命与退休年龄的调整算法,并以此给出了两者间的调整对照表.根据计算的结果和预期的寿命,建议2030年前逐步将退休年龄延长至65岁.最后通过检验发现,如果不存在人口预期寿命和退休年龄之间的调整机制,在保持养老金收支平衡的前提下,预期寿命的延长将减少养老金的发放,并可能带来社会福利的损失.因此,在中国人口预期寿命不断延长的背景下,建议政府考虑建立人口预期寿命和退休年龄的调整机制.     

Social insurance for the elderly

We study the effects of retirement benefits provided by social insurance programs on consumption, portfolio choice, and retirement in a continuous-time theoretical model. We show that people tend to retire earlier with an increase in retirement social insurance benefits (SIBs), consistent with empirical evidence. We show also that people tend to increase savings before retirement in anticipation of increased retirement benefits, a counter-intuitive result. The response of risky investment with an increase in the SIBs is ambiguous, depending on parameter values. The overall social welfare will increase with an increase in SIBs if the balanced budget constraint is satisfied. We also investigate the effects of changes in the two streams of the SIBs (paid in perishable goods and cash) and the proportion of workers in entire population on social welfare.     

Taxation of early retirement windows and delaying retirement: The French experience

This paper investigates the effect of the 2003 French pension reform on hiring, firing and employment rates among older workers. This reform increased the mandatory retirement age and simultaneously it set a tax levied on early retirement windows paid by firms to their older workers, to encourage them to leave their job early. We use a matching model with endogenous job destruction extended to account for a mandatory retirement age and we calibrate the model with data drawn from the French Labor Force Surveys for the years 2002 and 2003. We show that in the case of a high tax rate, delaying retirement raises job separation rates, which partially offsets its positive effect on job finding rates. Consequently, the combination of an increase in the retirement age and a taxation on early retirement windows may have negative effects on the employment rate among older workers.     

延迟退休会提高社会福利水平吗?

文章基于延迟退休可能带来就业挤出和闲暇损失的现实背景,在动态一般均衡世代交叠模型框架下通过引入异质性消费者并根据中国经济校准主要参数,在控制延迟退休对中国劳动力市场冲击影响的基础上,模拟分析了延迟退休政策对企业职工福利水平的长期影响。研究分析表明：(1)无论是采用保持现有的缴费率不变的政策方式还是保持养老金待遇不变的政策方式,延迟退休均能提高城镇企业职工的社会福利水平———第一种政策会增加社会福利3.66%,第二种政策会增加社会福利1.1%;在保持养老保险缴费率不变的情况下,从长期看,延迟退休5年会使社会福利最大化。(2)最优的退休年龄与劳动力市场状态息息相关,如果当前就业形势严峻,最优退休年龄需要相应降低。     

Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices

This article investigates the effects of horizontal acquisitions on the performance of target firms in the 1990s. Using French manufacturing firm-level data, we examine two main indicators of performance: the profit and the productive efficiency. We distinguish domestic from cross-border acquisitions. To evaluate the impact of take-overs, we implement appropriate difference-in-difference estimation techniques associated to a matching propensity score procedure. We find that Mergers &?Acquisitions (M&A) do not increase the profit of French target firms, even on the long run. However, they clearly raise the productivity of target firms. These results suggest that firms probably redistribute efficiency gains at the upstream and/or downstream production stage. There is no evidence of an increase in market power. In addition, the consequences of domestic and cross-border M&A significantly differ. Efficiency gains are stronger for cross-border M&A. This conclusion is however true only for extra-European Union operations. The achievement in the European economic integration certainly explains the absence of difference between European and domestic acquisitions. Finally, our results cast some doubt on the frequent discrimination attitude towards foreign takeovers and the fears of their impact on firms’ performance and the host country's welfare.     

Directors’ and officers’ liability insurance and firm innovation

In this paper, we investigate the impact of directors’ and officers’ insurance (D&O insurance) on firm innovation in China. We find that D&O insurance is significantly positively associated with firm innovation, which indicates that D&O insurance enhances managers’ tolerance for failure. To address endogeneity concerns, we adopt the propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences approach. We find that firms with D&O insurance have a stronger risk bearing capacity. Further analyses show that the impact of D&O insurance on firm innovation is more pronounced in firms with a better legal environment, male executives, and stronger external supervision.     

Dynamic analysis of bribery firms’ environmental tax evasion in an emissions trading market

Using an R&D-based growth model with dual regulation, we analyse how environmental policies influence pollution, corruption, a growth rate, and welfare. Considering that polluting firms bribe bureaucrats to evade paying environmental tax, we find that a stricter environmental tax leads to a decrease in growth rate via a decrease in the permit rent as well as an increase in pollution and corruption per firm and results in worsening households’ welfare and in improving the bureaucrats’ welfare. Thus, tax evasion with corruption improves households’ welfare and worsens the bureaucrats’ welfare. Our findings imply that tax evasion under dual regulation improves social welfare.     

State mandated benefits and the small firm's decision to offer insurance

In the last decade, the number of Americans without health insurance has grown, partly due to an erosion in employer-based coverage among workers. This paper examines the extent to which state-mandated benefit requirements and other state insurance regulations discourage small firms in the private sector from providing health benefits. Using data on 1320 firms observed in 1985 and 492 firms observed in 1988, we estimate two models of small firms' decisions to offer health insurance (one for each data set), and then use them to assess the effects that mandates had on purchasing decisions in both years. We estimate that 19 percent of noncoverage among sample businesses in 1985 and 43 percent of noncoverage in the 1988 sample was attributable to state-mandated benefits. State continuation-of-coverage requirements were particularly burdensome for firms. With continued growth in the number of state mandated benefit requirements, we should expect a steady rise in the small firm's propensity to forgo insurance coverage.     

Going offshore or better staying in? Spatial relocation strategies and their impact on firm innovativeness

We analyse the short- to mid-run effects of spatial relocation strategies on firm innovativeness and productivity growth. Using conditional difference-in-difference estimation with multiple treatments, we find for a sample of German firms in 1999–2013 that offshoring has a statistically significant negative impact on the firms’ innovation activity and productivity growth vis-à-vis nonrelocating comparison firms. In contrast, we find a positive link between domestic relocation activities and the firms’ propensity to introduce a product innovation. Firms should thus carefully account for potentially distorting performance effects when deciding about the spatial scale of relocation strategies in the short to mid-run.     

Healthier when retiring earlier? Evidence from France

This paper contributes to the literature on the health-retirement relationship by looking at the effect of retiring before legal age on health in later life in France. To account for the endogeneity of the early retirement decision, our identification strategy relies on eligibility rules to a long-career early retirement scheme introduced in France in 2004 that substantially increased the proportion of older workers leaving their last job before the legal age of 60 years. We find a positive correlation between early retirement and health problems among male retirees. However, we fail to find any significant causal effect of early retirement on poor health once we account for the endogeneity of the decision to retire before the legal age. Controlling for working conditions does not influence the effect of retirement and occupying a demanding job is harmful to health after retirement regardless of the retirement date. Similar results are found for female retirees.     

Investment climate,foreign networks and exporting – evidence from Africa

This paper investigates the impact of investment climate variables and foreign networks on the exporting decisions of African firms. We use data from the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys for over 7000 firms in 24 Sub-Saharan African countries. The results highlight the crucial role of the access to, and the quality of, investment climate characteristics – infrastructure, external finance and telecommunications for Sub-Saharan African firms’ exporting propensities. Our results show that improving the investment climate to the level of best performers in the sample will considerably increase the propensity of domestic firms to export. The paper also finds that foreign networks have a significantly positive impact on firms’ export propensities.     

Firm age and the probability of product innovation. Do CEO tenure and product tenure matter?

This paper examines the influence that the age of a firm has on the probability of product innovation by taking into account two factors: the role of the CEO’s tenure and the lifecycle of the last product introduced. In a sample of Italian manufacturing firms (n = 2163), analysis reveals that the new entrants’ high innovative activity is mainly driven by the new CEO’s innovation propensity, which is strictly dependent on his tenure. Likewise, the lower innovation activity observed in mature firms is mostly explained by the dynamics of the product’s lifecycle and the CEO’s tenure. More generally, the existence of a negative relationship between innovation and firm age is questioned, as controlling for time-related variables that overlap during the company’s lifecycle —product age and CEO’s tenure — turns the relationship positive. Finally, the innovative behavior of incumbent companies turns out to be dependent on the renewal abilities of newly appointed external CEOs, whereas CEOs from within the family play a minor role.     

Capital utilization and retirement

This empirical analysis assesses the determinants of firms’ capital retirement. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the business cycle and the capital usage intensity. Compared to previous studies, we directly control for the capital utilization and disentangle the short-run mechanisms from the long-run ones. The analysis is carried out with an original and large firm-level dataset. The main results of the analysis may be summarized as follows: (i) the retirement rate increases during slowdowns and decreases during booms. This corresponds to a countercyclical capital retirement; (ii) the capital retirement rate increases with the capital usage intensity in the long run. This corresponds to a wear and tear effect, which is small compared to the countercyclical one; (iii) the capital retirement rate increases with the average age of capital; (iv) the profit rate and the wage cost per capita do not have a significant impact on the retirement rate.     

Does providing informal elderly care hasten retirement? Evidence from Japan

This paper examines the implications of providing care to elderly parents for adult children's retirement plans using micro data from a Japanese survey. We find no significant effect of caregiving on family caregivers’ planned retirement age if we do not take into account caregiving intensity but find a negative and significant effect on retirement plans for intensive caregivers, particularly among women. These findings suggest that relying on family members to provide elderly care can pose a serious challenge to the ongoing efforts of the government to promote the labor supply of women and the elderly as a way of addressing the shrinkage of the working‐age population in Japan. The estimation results suggest that ensuring access to formal care services can help family members reconcile their paid work with caregiving requirements, thereby alleviating the adverse effect of caregiving on their retirement plans. The results also suggest that the financial burden of formal care services could require caregivers to postpone retirement in some cases.     

Economic integration and the dynamics of firms’ competitive behavior

We investigate the evolution of firms’ competitive behavior in the EU by studying the dynamics of firms’ price-cost margins (PCMs) across four countries (France, Italy, Poland and Sweden), in three manufacturing and three services industries for around 170,000 firms over the period 1999–2007. By looking at density distributions of the PCM across firms, we detect an aggregation problem affecting country specific measures of PCM levels, with PCM changes providing instead an unbiased representation of industry dynamics. A Laspeyres-type decomposition of PCM changes shows pro-competitive effects over the period, induced mainly by the reallocation channel, and a tendency to a quality upgrading of firms, revealed by the positive interaction term. These trends are stronger after 2002. We also observe a trend towards lower PCMs across manufacturing industries, while the latter is not true for services. These findings are confirmed by a dynamic panel econometric exercise performed on the pooled firm-level sample.     

Brotherhood of competition: Foreign Direct Investment and domestic mergers

We examine the effects of mergers on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and on shaping national policies regarding FDI. In this work we develop a partial equilibrium model of an oligopolistic industry in which a number of domestic and foreign firms compete in the market for a homogeneous good in a host country. It is assumed that the number of foreign firms is endogenous and can be affected by the government policy in the host country. The government sets the policy (subsidies) to maximise social welfare. We allow domestic mergers. Our main results suggest that when the host country government imposes discriminatory lump-sum subsidy in favor of foreign firms, a merger of domestic firms will increase the number of FDI if the subsidy level is exogenous. With an endogenous level of subsidy, a merger of domestic firms will decrease (increase) the welfare if the domestic firms are more (less) efficient.