收入不平等与家庭借贷行为*——家庭为追求社会地位而借贷的动机真的存在吗

本文利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年度的调查数据,考察了收入不平等对家庭借贷行为的影响,并验证了家庭是否存在为追求社会地位而借贷的动机。研究表明：（1）收入不平等并不是影响家庭是否借贷的主要因素,但是对家庭的负债规模存在十分显著的抑制作用;（2）收入不平等的扩大并不会促使中低收入家庭寻求借贷或提升家庭负债规模,我国家庭并不存在为了追求更高的社会地位而进行借贷的动机;（3）收入不平等的扩大有利于高收入家庭获得更多的正规金融借贷,中低收入家庭则会较多地依赖于非正规金融借贷;（4）户主的人口统计学特征、家庭经济特征以及家庭所处地区特征均是影响家庭借贷行为的重要因素,在正规金融和非正规金融市场上,影响家庭借贷行为的因素存在较明显的差异。     

财富不平等会抑制金融素养对家庭借贷行为的作用效果吗*——基于CHFS数据的经验分析

本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,选用工具变量法,考察了金融素养对城乡家庭借贷行为影响的差异性,并验证了财富不平等扩大会抑制金融素养对家庭借贷行为的影响。研究发现：（1）金融素养是影响家庭借贷行为的重要因素。户主金融素养水平的改善显著提高了家庭发生借贷的概率与家庭借贷规模。（2）金融素养对城乡家庭借贷行为的影响存在明显差异,金融素养的提高对信贷约束较为严重的农村家庭借贷行为的促进作用更大。（3）财富不平等对家庭借贷行为存在明显的抑制作用,财富不平等的扩大减少了家庭借贷需求,降低了家庭发生借贷的概率和家庭负债规模。（4）随着家庭财富不平等程度的扩大,金融素养对家庭借贷行为的促进作用受到抑制。基于以上结论,政府应该大力开展消费者金融素养教育,注重家庭收入分配合理性,从而推动我国消费金融市场的健康发展。     

Household Debt,Consumption, and Income Inequality

Using the Johansen and Engle–Granger cointegration tests, we show that there is one cointegrating relationship between household debt, consumption, and income inequality in the United States for the period from 1929 to 2009. Given this result, we use a Vector Error-Correction model to further understand the dynamics among the three variables. Results indicate that increases in income inequality and consumption directly contribute to increases in household debt. Interestingly, the results reveal some feedback from household debt to income inequality. We also show that debt-driven consumption should be viewed with caution as the results show that increases in household debt correspond with future declines in the rate of consumption.     

Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis

The article analyses the rise in household indebtedness fromthe point of view of its causes and long-run macroeconomic implications.The analysis is focussed on the US case. Differently from life-cycleinterpretations of the phenomenon, and from interpretationsin terms of erratic deviations of current income flows fromtheir long-run trend, the rising household debt is viewed asthe outcome of persistent changes in income distribution andgrowing income inequalities. Through household debt, low wagesappear to have been brought to coexist with relatively highlevels of aggregate demand, thus providing the solution to thecontradiction between the necessity of high and rising consumptionlevels, for the growth of the system's actual output, and aframework of antagonistic conditions of distribution which keepswithin limits the real income of the vast majority of society.The question of the long-run sustainability of this substitutionof loans for wages is finally discussed.     

Income Distribution,Household Debt and Growth in Modern Financialized Economies

Abstract:

We analyze some core features of the institutional transformation of the Canadian and U.S. economies over the last half century, as they became increasingly financialized economies resting on household consumption as the key contributor to economic growth, despite weak growth in real wages and personal disposable income. This growth in consumption spending is highly fragile not only because it is a debt-led growth that has relied on an unsustainable expansion of household indebtedness largely dependent on credit bubbles in the housing market, but also because of the perverse form of this indebtedness. Studied from the angle of disaggregated household consumption/saving behavior, it is the poorest and most vulnerable households who have been building up unsustainable debt, thereby presaging increasing financial fragility and crises.     

Financial Insecurity in a World of Plenty

Abstract

The U.S. economy is addicted to the simulative impacts of household borrowing. Household debt has grown dramatically since the 1990s and has served to mitigate the detrimental effects of stagnant household wages. The accumulation of this debt has also had the macroeconomic impact of stimulating the economy, pushing it closer towards full employment. However does full employment stimulated by household indebtedness actually represent economic progress? It is argued that even the poorest citizen in a modern industrialized society is better off than a king of feudal Europe, yet in the United States such material prosperity is often tied to social insecurity thanks to debt. The growth of this debt has been enabled by a financial system that has evolved dramatically over the past forty years. The U.S. financial system’s primary role is no longer to finance investment but is rather a tool that enables a separation of ownership from use. Debt has fueled corporate profits which have enriched the shareholding class while at the same time the system has reduced the financial security of the majority of workers. This article crystalizes these issues by analyzing the differentials in financial circumstances faced by workers and shareholders in several major U.S. firms.     

Currency devaluations,aggregate demand,and debt dynamics in economies with foreign currency liabilities

The article uses a post Kaleckian model to analyze how currency devaluations affect aggregate demand and capital accumulation in an economy with foreign currency liabilities in the short-run. In benchmark post Kaleckian open economy models, currency devaluations have two effects. First, they change international price competitiveness and thus affect net exports. Second, devaluations change income distribution and thereby affect consumption and investment demand. The overall effect on aggregate demand and investment is ambiguous and depends on parameter values. Existing models, however, disregard balance sheet effects that arise from foreign currency-denominated external debt. The article develops a novel post Kaleckian open economy model that introduces foreign currency-denominated external debt and balance sheet effects to examine the demand-effects of devaluations. Furthermore, the article models the dynamics of external and domestic corporate debt. It discusses how an economy may end up in a vicious cycle of foreign-currency indebtedness and derives the conditions under which indebtedness becomes stable or unstable. It shows that the existence of foreign currency-denominated debt means that contractionary devaluations are more likely, and that foreign interest rate hikes, and high illiquidity and risk premia compromise debt sustainability. Devaluations only stabilize debt ratios if they succeed in boosting domestic capital accumulation.     

Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.     

How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data

The paper investigates the extent to which household indebtedness suppressed consumption during the economic downturn in 2008–2009. The paper uses a unique quarterly panel dataset containing financial information on over 100 000 individuals. The dataset covers the period 2005–2011, when there were large changes in credit volumes, income and consumption in Estonia, a new EU member country. The estimations show that indebtedness measured by the debt-to-income ratio and the debt service ratio hampers consumption over the whole business cycle. The negative impact of the debt service ratio is, however, substantially stronger during the recession than in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, while the negative effect of the debt-to-income ratio is relatively stable over the sample period. The findings suggest that household indebtedness is amplifying the recession and the debt repayment burden indicates the mechanism which is at work.     

Relative Income and Indebtedness: Evidence from Panel Data

We examine patterns of indebtedness in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, focusing on the period surrounding the housing bubble and its aftermath (i.e., 1999–2009). Leverage increased across households, but most quickly among lower income households during this period. We find additionally that leverage grew faster for households with lower relative income compared to other households in similar demographic groups or within a state controlling for own income. Together, these findings provide evidence for the thesis that the rising indebtedness of households in the U.S. is related to high levels of inequality, and that “Veblen effects,” whereby relative income matters for individual well‐being and decisions, may contribute to rising household indebtedness.     

Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development:Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2019-2020)

Twenty nineteen(2019)marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities.Internally,the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth,plunged growth in manufacturing investment,rapid accumulation of household debt,risen income inequality,and the overhang of local government debt.The nation's external conditions did not fare any better,with drastically declined growth in imports and exports,continued trade tensions with the US,and weakened external demand.Based on the IAR-CMM model,which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors,the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0%in 2020(5.9%using more reliable rather than the official data),with a downside risk.Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted,in addition to the benchmark forecast,to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties.The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.     

Corporate Power and the Scope of Economic Analysis

This paper examines how consumer debt impacts middle-class households. Interest payments on this debt reduce spendable income and household living standards. We argue that it is necessary to account for interest payments on consumer debt when measuring income inequality and the size of the middle class, and then estimate the impact of doing this using the Survey of Consumer Finances datasets since the 1980s. We find that both greater income inequality and rising interest payments on past debt are squeezing the middle class, with interest becoming more important in the 2000s. We conclude with some policy proposals to aid middle-class households.     

The Financial Crisis of 1929 Reexamined: The Role of Soaring Inequality

The financial crisis of 1929 that triggered the Great Depression has been endlessly studied. Still there is little consensus regarding what caused it. This article claims that wage stagnation and exploding inequality fueled three dynamics that set the stage for a financial crisis. First, consumption was constrained by the smaller share of total income accruing to workers, thereby restricting investment opportunities in the real economy. Flush with greater income and wealth, the elite flooded financial markets with credit, helping keep interest rates low and encouraging the creation of new credit instruments, some of which recycled the rich's surplus assets as debt to those less well off. Second, greater inequality pressured households to find ways to consume more in order to maintain their relative social status, resulting in reduced household saving, greater household debt, and possibly longer work hours. Third, as the rich took larger shares of income and wealth, they gained relatively more command over everything, including ideology. Reducing taxes on the rich, favoring business over labor, and failing to regulate newly evolving credit instruments flowed out of this ideology.     

The drivers of household indebtedness reconsidered: An empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries

Abstract

Household debt is at a record high in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and it played a crucial role in the recent financial crisis. Several arguments on the macroeconomic drivers of household debt have been put forward, and most have been empirically tested, albeit in isolation of each other. This article empirically tests 7 competing hypotheses on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness together in one econometric study. Existing arguments suggest that residential house prices, upward movements in the prices of assets demanded by households, the income share of the top 1%, falling wages, the rolling back of the welfare state, the age structure of the population, and the short-term interest rate drive household indebtedness. We formulate these arguments as hypotheses and test them for a panel of 13 OECD countries over the period 1993–2011 using error correction models. We also investigate whether effects differ in boom and bust phases of the debt and house price cycles. The results show that the most robust macroeconomic determinant of household debt is real residential house prices, and that the phase of the debt and house price cycles plays a role in household debt accumulation.     

Income inequality and credit expansion in post-communist countries

There is an on-going debate on the antecedents and consequences of income inequality. Recent studies find that income inequality was a cause of the recent financial crisis. However, the findings on the inequality–indebtedness relationship are mixed and based on analyses of developed countries. The aim of this research is to test how income inequality influences borrowing in post-communist countries, whose financial markets are not very developed, which has important implications for income inequality. Therefore, we include financial system development in the analysis. We base our analysis on state-level panel data and find that income inequality will increase indebtedness in the private sector. However, these results are model and region specific. To preclude higher income inequality and the emergence of a financial crisis, policies should be directed towards improving the role of financial intermediaries and stock markets.     

Exploring the link between household debt and income inequality: an asymmetric approach

We investigate the relationship between household debt and income inequality in the USA, allowing for asymmetry, using data over the period 1913–2008. We find evidence of an asymmetric cointegration between household debt and inequality for different regimes. Our results indicate household debt only responds to positive changes in income inequality, while there is no evidence of falling inequality significantly affecting household debt. The presence of this asymmetry provides further empirical insights into the emerging literature on household debt and inequality.     

Broke,Ill, and Obese: Is There an Effect of Household Debt on Health?

We analyze the association between household indebtedness and different health outcomes using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel from 1999 to 2009. We control for unobserved heterogeneity by applying fixed‐effects methods and furthermore use a subsample of constantly employed individuals plus lagged debt variables to reduce problems of reverse causality. We apply different measures of household indebtedness, such as the percentage shares of household income spent on consumer credit and home loan repayments (which indicate the severity of household indebtedness) and a binary variable of relative overindebtedness (which indicates a precarious debt situation). We find all debt measures to be strongly correlated with health satisfaction, mental health, and obesity. This relationship vanishes for obesity after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity while it stays significant with respect to worse physical and mental health.     

The response of household debt to income inequality shocks: a heterogeneous approach

This article explores the impact of changes in income inequality on household indebtedness using Pedroni's heterogeneous panel VAR. As a result, we find evidence in support of large cross-country heterogeneity in the responses of household leverage to income inequality shocks. We also find that such heterogeneity stems from differences in the strength of financial regulations and supervision.     

Inequality and Crisis: Conspicuous Consumption as the Missing Link in the Portuguese Case

Portuguese household debt increased above GDP between 2000 and 2007. This article uses conspicuous consumption to explain credit demand dynamics. The author develops an institutionalist framework and consider how rapid high inequalities and increasing top income share favored conspicuous consumption and climbing household debt.