Liquidity risk and financial competition: Implications for asset prices and monetary policy

This paper studies the implications of banking competition for capital markets and monetary policy. In particular, I develop a two-sector monetary growth model in which a group of agents is exposed to liquidity shocks and money is essential. Banks insure depositors against such risk and invest in the economy's assets. In this setting, I compare an economy with a perfectly competitive banking sector to an economy with a fully concentrated financial sector. Unlike previous work, banks can have market power in both deposits and capital markets. Compared to a perfectly competitive financial sector, I demonstrate that a monopolistic banking system can have substantial adverse consequences on capital formation, assets prices, and the degree of risk sharing. Furthermore, multiple steady-states can emerge and the economy becomes subject to poverty traps. More importantly, market power in financial markets may overturn the Tobin effect present under a perfectly competitive financial sector. This necessarily happens in economies with high degrees of liquidity risk and low levels of capital formation.     

Real estate prices and systemic banking crises

The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies.     

基于分位数回归商业银行系统性风险研究

在宏观审慎监管框架下,对系统重要性银行的识别并对其提出更高监管要求是金融危机后的监管重点。文章选取代表不同类型的8家上市商业银行为样本银行,采用CoVaR模型和分位数回归技术对2007-2011年实体经济和金融数据进行实证分析。实证表明:从流动性方面看,资产规模较大的银行反而面临更高的流动性风险,其风险溢出效应更容易导致系统性风险的聚集,发生危机时对系统性风险贡献较大;在宏观经济周期逆转时,中小型银行相对大型银行更容易出现风险溢出效应导致系统性风险聚集;因此政策建议:银行业监管当局的监管重点在传统的资产规模庞大的银行,同时也要关注银行业务增长过快的中小银行,这些银行往往也是系统性风险聚集和金融危机爆发的始作俑者。     

Determinants of income diversification: evidence from Chinese banks

This article presents an analysis of the determinants of Chinese commercial banks’ income diversification decisions. Using a panel dataset comprising 88 Chinese domestic banks from 2003 to 2010, we find that bank diversification reflects a variety of managerial abilities: insolvency risks, cost, capital position, asset scale and ownership structure. A larger ratio of banking assets to gross domestic product and lower interest spread lead to a higher level of diversification. Moreover, national banks and regional banks have different strategic responses to the macroeconomic, and indeed, regulatory environment. Resisting shocks from the banking sector and the macro economy, and supplementing liquidity shortages from intermediation business seem to be the driving forces of national banks to operate in non-banking sectors.     

Inside Shadow Banking in China: Credit Driven Growth vs. Financial Stability

Shadow banking has been growing rapidly in China since the 2008 global financial crisis. Shadow banking has also played an increasing role in supplying credit. I investigate the development of the shadow banking sector, and assess its impacts on financial stability and economic growth in China. I argue that, due to the loose regulations and institutional characteristics of the shadow banks, these banks tend to adopt business practices that elevate institutional risks. At the systemic level, shadow banks have contributed to credit expansion and credit-driven growth. However, such growth entails significant financial risks and renders the macro-economy financially fragile. I conclude with a discussion of imminent fullblown financial crisis, calling for policy actions.     

The transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and banking to study the transmission of financial shocks between the financial and real sectors. A deterioration in the bank's balance sheet induced by financial shocks could have amplified and persistent impacts on real activities. The amplification of the shocks are originated from financial frictions tied to households and banks. We find that a disruption in bank net worth initiated by capital quality shocks generates a decline in household loans, house prices and output. Bank liquidity shocks also have negative effects on these variables. Housing preference shocks could generate a positive comovement between house prices and output. All these findings are qualitatively consistent with empirical evidence, suggesting that these financial shocks are critical to the dynamics of house prices and other macroeconomic variables.     

Global banking,global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises

We examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries׳ risk of suffering financial turmoil. We construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks׳ balance-sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets. This allows us investigating the effect of (foreign) bank balance-sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011. Our proxies of shocks towards bank balance-sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries. Confirming these results, bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks׳ assets are hit by negative shocks, as measured by credit rating downgrades from third-party countries. Short-term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll-over and funding risks, thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders’ balance-sheets. Domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities, such as illiquid assets and a low deposit-asset ratio, are found to increase crisis contagion risk. In contrast, a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks׳ assets to debtor countries.     

金融压力、所有制结构与银行风险承担——基于中国影子银行活动的实证研究*

2008年金融危机之后，监测与防范系统性金融风险、维护金融稳定成为各国监管机构的工作重点。本文构建了一个反映我国系统性金融风险的中国金融压力指数（FSIC）。基于此，本文研究不同所有制结构的商业银行将如何调整影子银行业务以应对系统性金融风险。实证结果表明，当金融压力上升时，相较于国有银行，非国有银行的风险承担水平显著上升。进一步研究发现，这一差异与两类银行对影子银行这一风险业务的调整有关。当金融压力上升时，国有银行会显著减少影子银行业务，而非国有银行的影子银行业务不会减少。本文提出了国有银行的双重职能这一观点来解释实证研究的发现。本文的研究结论对于指导我国金融市场化改革和防范系统性金融风险具有重要启示。     

市场竞争、银行市场势力与流动性创造效率—来自中国银行业的证据

商业银行是中国社会融资的主要渠道,银行向社会提供流动性的效率直接决定了社会融资的效率.为弥补流动性创造研究在效率和中观层面的不足,文章采用中国商业银行2000?2015年微观数据,探讨了市场竞争、银行市场势力与流动性创造效率之间的关系,得到以下结论:(1)市场竞争与流动性创造效率之间存在倒U形关系,中国银行业存在最优的市场结构;(2)银行市场势力过强是中国商业银行流动性创造效率较低的重要原因,银行市场势力越强,其流动性创造效率越低;(3)市场竞争程度与市场势力的流动性创造效率系数之间存在不显著的负相关关系,寄希望于通过增强中国银行业竞争程度来改善银行市场势力过强所导致的流动性创造效率过低,作用可能非常有限.中国应沿着"增强商业银行流动性创造能力,扩大直接融资规模"的改革方向继续前进.文章的研究丰富了已有文献,而且为中国银行体系改革的顶层设计提供了重要参考.     

What are the bank-specific and macroeconomic drivers of banks’ leverage? Evidence from Luxembourg

We investigate the leverage cycle in Luxembourg’s banking sector using individual bank-level data for the period 2003 Q1–2010 Q1. One of our findings is that Luxembourg’s banks have a procyclical leverage. This procyclicality is not due to marking-to-market but because Luxembourg’s banks are liquidity providers to the EU banking sector. We then empirically investigate the role of bank characteristics as well as real, financial and expectation variables that proxy for macroeconomic conditions in the pre-crisis and crisis period. We find that off-balance sheet exposures have different effects in the pre-crisis and crisis period, and that the share of liquid assets in the portfolio only affects security holdings. As for macroeconomic variables, we find that the Euribor-OIS spread is a significant driver of the build-up in leverage in the pre-crisis period. The reason is that most banks in Luxembourg are either branches or subsidiaries. This makes leverage a less relevant indicator of riskiness for investors. It also implies that in times of liquidity shortages, mother companies or groups demand further liquidity from their branch or subsidiary. The downturn in leverage during the crisis can be accredited to reductions in expectations, which we proxy by an economic sentiment indicator. It can also be explained by increasing bond prices which induce depositors to shift their funds from bank deposits into bonds. We find no important role for GDP growth.     

Bank capital,the state contingency of banks’ assets and its role for the transmission of shocks

I show how the evolution of bank capital depends on the share of non-state-contingent assets in banks’ balance sheets and present the implications for macroeconomic dynamics. State-contingent securities impact on banks’ balance sheets through changes in their returns (and their prices), both of which depend on the current state of the economy. Non-state-contingent assets are signed before shocks are realized and their repayment is guaranteed. For this reason, they insulate banks’ balance sheets from recent economic activity in the absence of defaults. Non-state-contingent assets in banks’ balance sheets attenuate the amplification of shocks resulting from financial frictions. The same effect can be achieved if more weight is placed on the state-contingent assets in the equity related constraint against the costs of long-run output losses.     

How do banks set interest rates?

This paper studies cross-sectional differences in banks interest rates. It adds to the literature in two ways. First, it analyzes systematically the micro and macroeconomic factors that influence the price-setting behaviour of banks. Second, by using banks’ prices (rather than quantities) it provides an alternative way of disentangling loan supply from loan demand shift in the “bank lending channel” literature. The results suggest that heterogeneity in the banking rates pass-through - depending on liquidity, capitalization and relationship lending - exists only in the short run.     

International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth

This paper pulls together existing theory and evidence to assess whether international financial liberalization, by improving the functioning of domestic financial markets and banks, accelerates economic growth. The analysis suggests that the answer is "yes." First, liberalizing restrictions on international portfolio flows tends to enhance stock market liquidity. n turn, enhanced stock market liquidity accelerates economic growth primarily by boosting productivity growth. Second, allowing greater foreign bank presence tends to enhance the efficiency of the domestic banking system. In turn, better-developed banks spur economic growth primarily by accelerating productivity growth. Thus, international financial integration can promote economic development by encouraging improvements in the domestic financial system.     

影子银行体系的信用创造：机制、效应和应对思路

本文从金融功能视角,将影子银行体系的范畴界定在发挥了类似于商业银行存款、贷款、结算等功能的三大类非银行金融机构。在此前提下,从金融机构和金融产品视角,重点剖析了前两类金融机构的信用创造机制。同时,提出影子银行体系的信用创造机制对商业银行具有有限替代效应,并在货币市场上产生外部溢出效应。即流动性之谜。最后,基于影子银行体系信用创造机制缺陷,提出从抵押品管理角度入手。在金融市场中建立证券最后贷款人,以规避影子银行体系信用扩张的风险。     

外资银行进入对我国银行效率影响的实证分析

本文选取我国银行市场上占主要地位的14家银行1994-2004年的面板数据,就外资银行进入对我国银行业效率影响进行了实证分析.实证结果表明:外资银行的进入使得国内银行的流动性、非利息收入、经营费用和资产收益率降低,并使其资产质量下降,风险增加,但是技术外溢效应以及对国内银行盈利性的影响并不显著.而且,金融业的对外开放对国有银行造成的冲击小于股份制银行.本文还根据实证分析结果,提出相应的政策建议.     

The Economy‐wide Impacts of a Rise in the Capital Adequacy Ratios of Australian Banks

Regulators are requiring banks to raise additional equity to finance their activities. The benefits are understood in terms of reducing the risks of another financial crisis. But there are potential costs, including the potential for unanticipated macroeconomic impacts as banks reduce leverage. We use a financial computable general equilibrium model, containing disaggregated treatment of financial agents, to explore the economy‐wide consequences of an increase in bank capital adequacy ratios. We find that the macroeconomic consequences are small.     

Portugal’s banking and financial crises: unexpected consequences of monetary integration?

Portugal’s current financial crisis might be related to a banking crisis resulting from joining the Euro. The new-currency eliminated the exchange rate risk, but not the credit or liquidity risks within the Euroarea. However, Portuguese banks acted as if all of these risks had disappeared. They began pumping money in Portugal, by borrowing intensively in Euros abroad at low interest rates. The ensuing liquidity generated a capital-flow bonanza boom that culminated in a bust phase. Private and sovereign debt dramatically increased, which further soared when the government rescued banks. Portugal was then compelled to take extreme measures to address extraordinary debt-levels.     

虚拟经济条件下的资本市场与宏观经济分析

随着20世纪后期以来经济虚拟化进程的加速，需要一种新的宏观分析方法，能够将资本市场理和宏观经济理论更好地结合起来。本文在这方面作了一些尝试。试图将资本市场作为经济中内生的一部分，与居民、企业和银行等经济中其他部门联系起来，从而更好的分析和解释宏观经济波动。     

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSFORMING CHINESE ECONOMY

Abstract. We conduct a theoretical investigation into how financial reforms are affecting the long‐run economic performance of the partially reformed Chinese economy. In a model with a dual structure in commodity production and financial repression, allowing the co‐existence of a state banking system and an informal credit market and introducing heterogeneity in the transaction technologies of individuals, we examine the interactions between the state banking system and the informal credit market, and the effects of various measures of financial liberalization on individuals’ optimal portfolio choices and the macroeconomic aggregates.     

Endogenous money and shareholders' funds in the classical theory of banking

By its nature, bank money is endogenous, but its issuing is risky and presupposes the presence of banks' shareholders' funds. Shareholders' funds give banks the means of dealing with the difficulties involved in the process of money creation and which are inherent to the banking activity: convertibility constraint, credit and liquidity risks. Unlike the Richardian paradigm, Smith's ‘real bill theory’ and Thornton's ‘lender of last resort theory’ point out the functions of shareholder's funds. Therefore their monetary-banking approachs seem more complementary than contradictory. In other respects, the theory of endogenous money and credit introduces risks and capital in the analysis of exchange and lead to questioning the classical market theory constructed on the model of bartering