The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies

By introducing uncertainty, monetary volatility and economic volatility are said to make the public cautious, hence increase their cash holdings or their demand for money. On the other hand, because of monetary and economic uncertainty if the public seek safer assets than money, they may hold less cash. In the absence of any paper testing for the impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies, this article fills the gap by considering the experiences of six Central and Eastern European emerging economies and four other emerging economies. We found that the impact is transitory in most countries. Moreover, money demand is found correctly specified and stable in most countries, suggesting that policy based on monetary targeting could still be effective despite significant output and monetary uncertainty.     

北京市旅游人口与旅游承载容量适配度分析及策略研究

北京市是我国的旅游业发展的核心地带之一,旅游产业发展规模大、程度高、速度快,但伴随着高速发展的旅游产业,旅游景区负荷过大,旅游人口与旅游承载容量不协调的问题已经日益凸显,以旅游承载容量为研究方法,以旅游人口为研究视角,对北京市的旅游产业的发展和负荷状况进行评价,并从管理运营制度,宣传,旅游产品形式三个方面提出优化改造和完善的对策,作为北京市解决旅游景区负荷和旅游人口过度密集等问题的一些政策参考,以期实现北京市旅游产业在可持续开发的前提下创造最大利润。     

扩大内需中旅游业独特贡献的探究

在扩大内需中旅游业具有独特贡献已成为各界的共识,但在各类研究中对旅游业在扩大内需中的独特贡献却言之甚少。基于扩大内需以扩大最终消费为主的概念,就旅游消费具有最终消费的特征来探究我国旅游消费在扩大内需中所做的独特贡献。     

A review of machine learning for big data analytics: bibliometric approach

ABSTRACT

The amalgamation of machine learning and big data has led to a revolution in data science with several influencing applications to various domains. To gain insights on the current research trends on machine learning for big data analytics, this study follows a bibliometric analysis methodology of citation data to review and quantitatively assess the explosion and impact of literature and research performance in this vibrant research area, which has witnessed rapid changes and rising interest in business, industry and academia. Using a variety of bibliometric measures and visualisation techniques, the paper examines and identifies several related issues including research productivity and directions, major contributors, publication trends and growth rates, citation and collaboration analysis, and others. The relevant bibliographic units for the study were collected from the Core Collection of the Web of Science bibliographic database. Nearly all the relevant publications prior to February 2018 were included in the analysis. The overwhelming productivity and wide-spread applications in several multidisciplinary domains have been revealed, with one-to-two ratio of journal to conference publications. Three countries (USA, China, India) are dominating the research output with more than two-thirds of the total productivity.     

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for the identification of patients with atrial fibrillation: evaluation of a machine learning risk prediction algorithm

Abstract

Aims: As many cases of atrial fibrillation (AF) are asymptomatic, patients often remain undiagnosed until complications (e.g. stroke) manifest. Risk-prediction algorithms may help to efficiently identify people with undiagnosed AF. However, the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening remains uncertain. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening, informed by a machine learning (ML) risk prediction algorithm, to identify patients with AF.

Methods: Cost-effectiveness analyses were undertaken utilizing a hybrid screening decision tree and Markov disease progression model. Costs and outcomes associated with the detection of AF compared traditional systematic and opportunistic AF screening strategies to targeted screening informed by a ML risk prediction algorithm. Model analyses were based on adults ≥50?years and adopted the UK NHS perspective.

Results: Targeted screening using the ML risk prediction algorithm required fewer patients to be screened (61 per 1,000 patients, compared to 534 and 687 patients in the systematic and opportunistic strategies) and detected more AF cases (11 per 1,000 patients, compared to 6 and 8?AF cases in the systematic and opportunistic screening strategies). The targeted approach demonstrated cost-effectiveness under base case settings (cost per QALY gained of £4,847 and £5,544 against systematic and opportunistic screening respectively). The targeted screening strategy was predicted to provide an additional 3.40 and 2.05 QALYs per 1,000 patients screened versus systematic and opportunistic strategies. The targeted screening strategy remained cost-effective in all scenarios evaluated.

Limitations: The analysis relied on assumptions that include the extended period of patient life span and the lack of consideration for treatment discontinuations/switching, as well as the assumption that the ML risk-prediction algorithm will identify asymptomatic AF.

Conclusions: Targeted screening using a ML risk prediction algorithm has the potential to enhance the clinical and cost-effectiveness of AF screening, improving health outcomes through efficient use of limited healthcare resources.     

The occurrence and spatial distribution of collaboration: biotech firms in Gothenburg,Sweden

This paper deals with the occurrence and spatial distribution of collaborations within biotechnology. By starting from a total population of 45 firms involved in biotech R&D, we shed light on how many collaborate with (1) other firms, (2) venture capitalists, and (3) actors in science and technology and whether these partners can be found in the region, nation or in the rest of the world. Possible explanations for the different patterns are drawn out.     

旅游消费的政策影响因素研究及启示——基于在杭消费者的调查

以来杭旅游者和当地居民的问卷调查为基础,通过频率频次、因子、信度、单因素方差等分析方法,归纳总结影响旅游消费的五大政策性因素,即“优惠政策”、“保障政策”、“管理政策”、“假日政策”、“财政政策”。并进一步分析五种政策性因素对不同游客的差异化影响程度,为政府出台针对性的高效的旅游消费促进政策提供理论依据。     

我国环保型汽车发展之政策需求的经济学分析

发展环保型汽车是我国应对能源资源和生态环境危机的必由之路,环保型汽车在我国的发展目前处于技术创新的阶段,技术创新的市场失灵为政府干预和支持环保型汽车的发展提供了理论依据,政府要根据市场失灵的不同类型有针对性地制定环保型汽车的发展政策,进行不同程度的政府干预。     

中国省级区域国际旅游竞争力决定因素分析

基于理论分析提出了影响我国省级区域旅游目的地国际旅游竞争力的8个决定因素,即旅游资源、旅游资本、旅游业劳动力、政府作用、企业能力、旅游产业结构、基础设施和区位条件。以我国31个省(区)为样本,利用基于面板数据的多元线性回归分析方法,从实证角度定量研究了上述8个决定因素对省级区域国际旅游竞争力影响的显著性及其相对重要性。回归结果显示:我国各省(区)国际旅游竞争力来源的98.5%能够由8个决定因素解释;除旅游产业结构外,其他决定因素对各省级区域国际旅游竞争力的影响均在0.01的水平上显著。     

我国健康保险有效需求的实证分析

有效保险需求是在当前特定时期内,在一定保险价格、一定购买力条件下现实的保险需求,是保险公司真正面对的业务来源。本文使用最近几年健康保险保费收入、城镇居民可支配收入、城镇基本医疗保险基金总收入及居民医疗保健支出等数据,通过建立回归模型对健康保险有效需求进行分析。结果显示：居民购买力和医疗费用的增长对我国健康保险的有效需求有显著影响,社会保险并未对商业健康保险产生替代作用,相反与健康保险保费收入同向增长。     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

Sustainable finance: The role of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador

The current world situation leads us to consider that sustainable development needs to be a global priority to ensure the future of the planet and improve the quality of life. There is a need for sustainable finance to support this. Savings and credit cooperatives could help to achieve this impact as they serve the microfinance and microlending market. They facilitate the financial inclusion of the most vulnerable people, most of whom live in rural areas and are members of organizations, such as agricultural cooperatives and associations. Previous studies have focused exclusively on overall profitability, so this paper contributes to extending the literature by analyzing the whole population of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador (510 institutions), focusing on their profitability in two ways: the overall profitability necessary for the viability of the business and, in addition, the microcredit portfolio profitability, as a specific measure of its contribution to sustainability and social value creation. Another novelty is that the analysis has been carried out using several machine learning techniques for the wider generalization of the results. These show that size is the most relevant variable for predicting the ROE and that the microcredit portfolio profitability is conditioned by the credit variables.     

Technology's impact on society: The issue of mass-customized education

The idea of mass-customization in the educational system is introduced. Customized education is an education system in which technologies and organizational skills are combined to provide for the individual's educational needs, when and where they are required. Such a procedure seems to hold the promise of bridging the conflict between the need to react rapidly to changing knowledge based skills on one hand and the relatively conservative social skills that the school has to provide. The paper discusses various aspects of modifications that are needed in the educational system to implement the transition from mass-education to mass-customized-education (MCE) for knowledge acquisition. These aspects include organization, teacher's attitudes and the concept of the two-tier classroom. The infrastructure required for MCE to become operational is described; such infrastructure is based on ideas, which drive mass customization in the production and business worlds.     

我国消费拉动经济增长路径选择的实证分析

针对目前我国消费拉动经济增长乏力的现象,用实证分析的方法诠释了实现经济健康、持续的增长须依靠消费拉动的必要性和潜在的潜力。并从转变消费观念、转移财政支付、完善社会保障、建设新农村、改善市场环境等方面着手,扩大消费需求,以期达到以消费拉动经济增长的目的。     

我国生猪养殖户饲料需求行为分析——基于对辽宁、河北生猪养殖户的问卷调查

本文以对辽宁、河北两省生猪养殖户饲料使用情况的调研数据为基础,从养殖户饲料需求的总体情况、养殖户的不同养殖规模、养殖户的不同兼业程度3个角度分别对我国生猪养殖户的饲料需求行为进行分析。结果表明:调研两省生猪养殖户的工业饲料使用比重不高、饲料粮使用比重较高、农副产品使用比重差异较大,这主要是受生猪养殖的规模化水平、饲料价格以及当地资源条件等因素的限制。     

The value of state education to consumers in the UK

This paper considers the value of state schooling, as perceived by consumers, taking into account that many households supplement the minimum education provided free of charge with out-of-pocket payments through acquiring accommodation in the catchment area of a high-quality state school. It suggests ways to circumvent difficulties in modelling household behaviour arising from joint housing-education consumption in the context of a two-stage demand system, where the proposed money metric of state schooling can be estimated from data readily available in household expenditure surveys. The empirical analysis, based on UK data, estimates this money metric as the amount households with school-age children would be willing to accept in order to opt out of the state education system. The efficiency and distributional implications of the empirical findings are discussed.     

The impact of exploration and exploitation learning on organisational innovativeness among hospitals: an open innovation view

This study tries to explore the impact of exploration and exploitation learning on organisational innovativeness among health service organisations from an open innovation view. We developed several constructs including realised absorptive capacity (RACAP), breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition and tried to explore the roles of these constructs in the influence process of organisational learning on organisational innovativeness. The mail survey was used to collect research data from top hospital managers in Taiwan. The overall valid response rate was 44.23%. We applied a structural equation model to test the research hypothesis. Results indicated the breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition would affect organisational innovativeness through RACAP. Exploration learning had a directly positive influence on RACAP and also had an indirect impact through the mediation of breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition among health service organisations.     

基于旅游产出体系的景区可持续发展测评模式

旅游业对地区的影响是全方位的,单纯从经济和环境的角度去评价一个景区的可持续发展状况往往会忽略旅游业的其他重要影响,从而导致评估的偏差。且目前国内通常使用的评估方法多采用一维指标体系,并通过数学模型得出评估值,这样做的不足在于评估时缺少客观的参照体系,也不易明确指出本景区在可持续发展上存在的主要问题。本文在引入旅游综合产出概念的基础上,设计出一种根据一个景区的实际产出,对照需要产出和潜在产出进行分项评估和综合测评的景区可持续发展测评模式。     

我国非寿险需求影响因素的实证分析

运用1985-2005年的相关数据,考察了经济增长、消费者的保险意识、风险水平、保险价格和保险市场供给因素对非寿险需求的影响。结果表明:经济增长、消费者的保险意识、风险水平对非寿险需求有显著的影响;而非寿险价格和非寿险市场的供给因素对非寿险需求的影响并不显著。对上述结果进行了进一步的讨论。     

The economic impact of telecommunications diffusion on UK productivity growth

This paper investigates the relationship between telecommunications infrastructure competition, investment and productivity. Using a novel methodology comprising of econometric modelling and input–output economics, the extent to which telecommunications has contributed to national and sectoral productivity performance is examined. The main findings from this paper suggest that most industries have benefited from the incorporation of advances of telecommunications technology, which might have, amongst other things, emanated from encouraging infrastructure investment, in their production processes.