The price effect of tariff liberalization: Measuring the impact on household welfare

Trade policy literature has for many years emphasized open policies positive impact on economic growth and development. While these results generally hold when measured on averages, empirical evidence suggests that trade liberalization is unlikely to produce beneficial results across all households. This study adds to the literature by providing an analysis of the distributive effects of tariff liberalization in Mexico. The paper examines the effect of tariff liberalization from the perspective of households both as consumers and factor owners allowing for imperfect domestic price transmission. The results indicate the overall positive effect of tariff liberalization masks significant differences in the distribution of gains both across income levels and across geographic regions. Richer households are found to have gained relatively more. Urban areas, as well as Mexican states closest to the United States border, are also found to be larger beneficiaries while southernmost states have been largely bypassed by the effects of tariff liberalization. Those results can be explained not only in relation to the different endowments of the households, but also by the diverse effects on local prices that has resulted from Mexican trade liberalization.     

Causes of Growth and Decline in Mexico’s Maquiladora Apparel Sector

Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) beginning in 1994, the maquiladora sector was the dynamic manufacturing sector in Mexico, and its apparel subsector was especially so, more than quadrupling in employment from December 1993 to July 2000. Yet NAFTA’s influence on apparel employment is hard to find in a careful time series econometric analysis. Instead, much of employment growth is explained for 1980 to the present by changes in US demand as measured by real US gross domestic product or by real US apparel spending, by US/Mexico relative labor cost as proxied by the real peso‐dollar exchange rate, and by the relaxation of quotas on US apparel imports from Mexico in 1988–1990. In equations including these variables, tests for a structural break at the time of NAFTA find an effect which is either insignificant or else quite small and in some models negative. Possible explanations for this surprising result are discussed, along with the implications for cost–benefit analysis of free trade agreements.     

Trade liberalization,consumption shifting and pollution: Evidence from Mexico's used vehicle imports

This paper develops a model of used vehicle trade between the United States and Mexico, countries with different environmental regulations regarding vehicle emissions. We demonstrate that the United States, with its strict environmental regulations, has a motive to export used vehicles to Mexico, which impacts air pollution emissions from vehicle driving in Mexico. Using unique data on the import and registration of vehicles in Mexico after NAFTA, we find that Mexico's used vehicle imports reduce pollution emissions generated from vehicle driving mainly because of the technique effect, that is, model–age‐comparable vehicles imported from the United States emit less than those originally operated in Mexico.     

WTO ACCESSION AND CHINA's DOMESTIC REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract.  This paper examines the implications of China's WTO accession for its domestic regional liberalization. We find first that, without WTO membership, regional liberalization might create a trade diversion that benefited only low-protection regions while harming high-protection regions, and it might or might not benefit the country as a whole. Second, we find that WTO entry will benefit the whole country, whether there is regional liberalization or not. Third, we find that WTO entry will facilitate domestic regional liberalization.     

Public Open Access and Private Timber Harvests: Theory and Application to the Effects of Trade Liberalization in Mexico

A common popular assertion is that trade liberalization encourages deforestation. But whether this is true depends on how trade policies affect the allocation of land among competing uses and how they influence illegal cutting of public forests. A model is presented that allows for forests to be either public or private, and public forests are divided into protected (or managed) and threatened categories. Effects of price changes are shown on each part of the forest. An empirical version of the model is applied to the case of Mexico with NAFTA. Most scenarios considered show that NAFTA will have positive long-run effects on forest cover in Mexico but that this is net of losses on private lands.     

Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence

Can trade liberalization have a permanent affect on output levels, and more important, does it have an impact on steady-state growth rates? The model emphasizes the role that knowledge spillovers emanating from heightened trade can have on income convergence and growth rates during transition and over the long run. Among the results of the model, unilateral liberalization by one country reduces the income gap between the liberalizing country and other, wealthier countries. From the long-run growth perspective, unilateral (and multilateral) liberalization generates a positive impact on the steady-state growth of all the trading countries.     

NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BILATERAL TRADE EFFECTS

This study evaluates the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on bilateral trade between the United States and Canada and between the United States and Mexico. Trade flow estimates are from a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The VAR methodology allows modeling bilateral trade in a flexible manner that incorporates both the interaction between different variables and the dynamics of trade, output, prices, and the exchange rate. After testing the outside sample forecasting ability of the models, the study produces dynamic forecasts of bilateral trade. It then compares forecasts incorporating the effects of the NAFTA with baseline forecasts. The results suggest expanded trade for all three countries and an improvement in the U.S. trade position with both Canada and Mexico.     

Globalization, rent protection institutions, and going alone in freeing trade

We construct a two-country North-South Product-cycle model of trade with endogenous growth and trade barriers. We remove the scale effects on growth by incorporating rent protection activities by Northern incumbents. We examine the effects of two forms of globalization - an expansion of the relative size of the South and unilateral trade liberalization by either country. We find that the location of rent protection institutions and the sectoral trade structure determine whether or not globalization raises steady-state economic growth. We demonstrate that for accelerating worldwide economic growth, contrary to conventional wisdom, unilateral Northern trade liberalization is preferable to bilateral trade liberalization.     

Induced Institutional Change in the Trade and Environment Debate

Because of the assumption of constant emission factors, economy-environment models often show that free trade has negative environmental consequences. However, this pessimistic view ignores the possibility of trade strengthening the demand for regulatory institutions. An `institutional optimism hypothesis, stating that the net environmental result of trade liberalization is benign, is thus formulated in this paper. The hypothesis is examined with a CGE model that treats institutional change as an endogenous process dependent on income. Application to NAFTA, using a broad range of scenarios, provides some support for the institutional optimism hypothesis. The net pollution effect of trade liberalization is in many cases beneficial or low, even for the country specializing in polluting industries. The implication is that in many cases environmental interests are served better by a focus on institution building in trading partners, than on the process of trade liberalization itself.     

Trade, regulations, and income

We examine the relationship between openness and per-capita income using cross-country data from 126 countries. We find that trade leads to a higher standard of living in flexible economies, but not in rigid economies. Business regulation, especially on firm entry, is more important than financial development, higher education, or rule of law as a complementary policy to trade liberalization. Specifically, after controlling for the standard determinants of per-capita income, our results imply that a 1% increase in trade is associated with more than a one-half percent rise in per-capita income in economies that facilitate firm entry, but has no positive income effects in more rigid economies. The findings are consistent with Schumpeterian “creative destruction”, which highlights the importance of new business entry in economic performance, and with previous firm-level studies showing that the beneficial effects of trade liberalization come largely from an intra-sectoral reallocation of resources.     

Does the quality of institutions enhance savings? The case of Sub-Saharan Africa

Over the last three decades, there has been increasing disparity in savings across regions and income groupings globally. In this paper, we investigate whether the quality of institutions explains the saving disparities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Utilizing comprehensive panel data and spanning the period 1980–2015, we estimate a savings model using the two-step instrumental variable generalized method of moment (2SIV-GMM) estimator. Our results show that the impact of institutions on savings behaviour differs across regions and income groupings, and in SSA, in aggregate. We find that the level and growth of per capita income and terms of trade enhance savings whereas government consumption expenditure, financial sector development and the elderly dependency rate are savings impeding. The findings are robust to alternative model specification and highlight the importance of institutions in influencing savings behaviour in SSA.     

TRADE,TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,AND WAGE INEQUALITY: THE CASE OF MEXICO

Following the U.S.–Mexico trade integration, the skill premium rose dramatically in Mexico. Standard trade theory predicts the skill premium in a skill‐scarce country should fall—not rise—following such an integration. This article reconciles theory and data by building a model in which intermediate producers in Mexico begin to produce for the U.S. supply chain following liberalization. To do so, they must rent ideas from the United States, which are more skill‐intensive, thus increasing the skill premium. This mechanism is supported by the data: Mexican plants and industries that trade more with the United States rent more U.S. technology and have higher skill premia.     

Spaghetti regionalism or strategic foreign trade: some evidence for Mexico

After signing 10 free trade agreements (FTAs) between 1993 and 2001, Mexico as a world leader in foreign trade policy continues to negotiate with countries such as Japan, Panama, Uruguay or Argentina. Criticism of multiple regional trade agreements (RTAs) arises from a consistency test, but also from the ability of a country to administer them. Mexico's multiple agreements have generally used the principle of NAFTA consistency, after the acceptance that NAFTA became a broader and deeper accord than results of the Uruguay multilateral achievements. An analysis of multiple RTAs is presented, including a game model of equilibrium, along with a political economy approach of why Mexico seeks multiple RTAs as its foreign trade policy.     

Reassessing the productivity gains from trade liberalization

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country‐industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non‐tariff barriers. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.     

近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势

改革开放以来,我国的地区差距经历了一个先缩小后持续扩大的历程。与20世纪90年代相比,近年来我国的地区差距发展趋势出现了一定的变化,2000—2004年,我国的地区差距仍然在持续扩大,但扩展的速度比20世纪90年代有所减缓,2004年出现了地区差距缩小的迹象。本文考察了地区差距变化的决定因素,发现中国地区经济存在条件收敛性,同时也存在促使地区差距持续扩大的因素,通过对地区经济增长进行分解,本文分析了多种因素对地区差距发展变化的贡献。     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

Costly pollution abatement, competitiveness and plant location decisions

The NAFTA debate included assertions that were used as arguments against trade and investment liberalization. (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to environmental restrictions (‘environmental dumping’?). (2) Investment liberalization, leading to multinational firms, similarly increases the production and welfare response to costly environmental restrictions. I find that: (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to costly environmental restrictions, but arguments against liberal trade on welfare grounds do not follow. (2) Multinationals do not increase the production-reallocation effect caused by environmental restrictions or regulations. In addition, I find a great difference between restrictions that fall on fixed costs and restrictions that fall on marginal costs.     

Trade,aid and migrations: some basic policy issues

The link between trade policy and international migration is explored using data from the United States and Europe. "We conclude that restrictive trade policies in industrialised countries have most likely added to migration pressures. We then turn to the broader question of the effects of income growth in the sending countries on the propensity to migrate. We argue that, in relatively poor countries, an increase in income will be associated with higher migration flows. For middle income countries, however, income growth will lead to lower migrations. In the medium run, therefore, the relationship between development levels, as measured by GDP per capita, and the propensity to migrate follows an inverse-U pattern. Econometric analysis of aggregate migration flows from Southern Europe provides considerable support for such conjecture."     

Trade integration and regional income disparities in a growth model with the service sector and footloose capital

This paper proposes a North–South growth model of endogenous industry location which is consistent with recent empirical work showing that regional income disparities have increased in many countries with the process of trade integration. The model incorporates a service sector that benefits from intersectoral knowledge spillovers from the manufacturing sector. We find that, when these spillovers are local, trade integration leads to an increase in interregional real income inequality.     

Environmental improvement with trade liberalization

Past studies predict that trade liberalization agreements (and NAFTA in particular) harm the environment. These studies have focused on adjustments in production and have assumed that environmental policy is exogenously given. We show why trade liberalization and improved environmental quality are mutually compatible — when environmental policy is recognized as politically endogenous. We also present empirical evidence to support the basic assumptions underlying the consistency of more liberal trade policy and an improved environment.