经济增长、收入分配与贫困规模变动相关性研究--来自北京市城市居民的经验数据

文章详细讨论了经济增长、不平等与贫困规模变动的相互关系,在确立三者关系基本框架的基础上,构造了应用Lorenz曲线及其相应弹性分析三者关系的理论模型,并提出了亲贫困增长指数的概念。在对北京城市居民的经验数据进行分析的基础之上得到的结论是:政府制定扶贫政策的选择应该使收入增长效应与收入不平等效应之和最大化,这为制定扶贫政策提供了决策依据。     

经济增长、收入分配与贫困——对新疆农村居民贫困变动的实证分析

通过运用FGT贫困指数和在Lorenz曲线基础上的贫困指示增长曲线对新疆农村最近几年的贫困变动进行研究。研究结果表明,从2003年到2007年,经济增长减缓了新疆农村的贫困状况,但收入分配状况的恶化在一定程度上抵消了经济增长减缓贫困的积极作用。除2003～2004年以外,其余时期的经济增长都不是亲贫式的增长,新疆农村的贫困人口在经济增长中获得的利益少于非贫困人口。因此,为了有效地减少贫困,新疆不仅要注重通过经济增长减少贫困规模,同时也要重视缩小收入分配差距,并且把减少收入分配不均等的重点要放在提高最贫困人口的收入水平上。     

1996—2008年中国县级市减贫效应分解与空间差异分析

提出经济增长、收入分配与贫困线移动三因素减贫效应的分解方法,运用贫困增长曲线,分析1996—2008年中国四大区域县级市的经济增长模式、贫困水平和影响贫困三因素的减贫作用,并进行空间差异分析。实证结果表明:①西部地区的经济属于减贫增长,其他三大区域的经济属于涓滴式增长;②东北和东部的贫困状况普遍好于中西部地区;③经济增长始终起着减少贫困的作用,收入分配差距恶化起着增加贫困的作用,而分配差距改善可起到减贫作用;④使用变动的贫困线有助于独立分析经济增长和收入分配的减贫作用。     

包容性增长研究述评

传统的经济增长理论不考虑其对减贫和不平等的影响,然而,近年来减贫速度的下降和不平等的增长促使人们重新认识经济增长。作为利贫增长的替代,包容性增长成为世界银行和许多国家的发展战略,本文从定义、度量、诊断、机制和理论基础等方面详细介绍了包容性增长的产生、发展以及将来的研究方向。     

中国共享式经济增长实证研究——基于公共支出、部门效应和政府治理的分析

文章首先基于多维贫困指标SHPI构建了共享式增长指数PEG,然后运用公共支出、政府治理水平和部门效应三个方面的指标来考察共享式增长。文章具体通过协整和误差修正模型分析了长期和短期影响共享式增长的主要因素及其调整机制,并在此基础上重点估计了各部门公共支出对共享式增长的影响。文章发现1978-2008年中国经济增长总体上具有共享性,但是大部分年份的共享程度较低。长期内,在公共支出、部门效应和政府治理水平三大类因素中公共支出方面的三个变量对PEG的影响最大。短期内,政府一般性支出和政府规模对共享式增长程度有非常显著的消极影响。     

GROWTH AND INCOME POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

This paper provides evidence on growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Results are obtained by processing microdata from household surveys of 18 LAC countries covering the 1990s and early 2000s. Over this period the LAC economies experienced heterogeneous patterns of growth and poverty changes. Most countries in the region had a rather meager performance in terms of poverty reduction. Episodes of positive, significant and unambiguously pro-poor income growth have been rare in Latin America.     

Measuring pro-poor growth when relative prices shift

The theoretical literature on pro-poor growth as well as its application has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of varying inflation rates across the income distribution. Ignoring inflation inequality in pro-poor growth measurements can however severely bias assessments of pro-poor growth. Hence, we suggest simple methods which are able to redress such biases. As an empirical illustration, we use the case of Burkina Faso and the growth incidence curve and poverty change decompositions as pro-poor growth measurements.     

The effects of fragility and financial inequalities on inclusive growth in African countries

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion.     

Welfare and Distribution Effects of Water Pricing Policies

In this paper, distribution and welfare effects of changes in block price systems are evaluated. A method is discussed to determine, for a Marshallian demand function, equivalent variation in case of a block price system. The method is applied to compare, for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, alternative pricing policies on the basis of their demand, welfare and distribution effects of changing water prices. Results show that there is a trade off between average welfare and income distribution. A pro-poor price system may result in lower average welfare than a flat price system, but in higher individual welfare for the poor. Moreover, there is a trade off between revenues for the water company and income distribution. Even though pro-poor price systems may not be as good for average welfare as flat price systems, their direct effects on poverty are important. Introducing pro-poor price systems, however, may have financial consequences for the water companies.     

When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries

Growth is pro-poor if the poverty measure of interest falls. According to this definition there are three potential sources of pro-poor growth: (a) a high growth rate of average incomes; (b) a high sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes; and (c) a poverty-reducing pattern of growth in relative incomes. I empirically decompose changes in poverty in a sample of developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s into these three components. In the medium- to long-run, most of the variation in changes in poverty can be attributed to growth in average incomes, suggesting that policies and institutions that promote broad-based growth should be central to the pro-poor growth agenda. Most of the remainder of the variation in changes in poverty is due to poverty-reducing patterns of growth in relative incomes, rather than differences in the sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes. Cross-country evidence provides relatively little guidance as to the policies and institutions that promote these other sources of pro-poor growth.     

经济增长对贫困变动的影响及影响途径分析——以新疆农村为例

以农村居民人均纯收入的增长作为经济增长,运用1988～2010年新疆农村人均纯收入分组数据,研究新疆经济增长与农村贫困变动之间的关系,并且对经济增长影响贫困变动的途径进行分析。研究结果表明,经济增长对新疆农村贫困的减少起到了显著的作用,而农业的发展和非农就业的增长是提高农民收入从而减缓农村贫困的主要途径。因此,推动农村经济增长仍然是新疆今后扶贫工作的重点。     

TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.     

TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.     

经济增长、收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

文章利用了基于Lorenz曲线进行贫困测度及其分解的方法,实证研究了1985～2003年中国农村的贫困变动,以及经济增长和收入分配对贫困变动的影响.结果表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距逐渐拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效.     

Cross‐country evidence on the determinants of inclusive growth episodes

Widening income disparities and slow productivity growth in most advanced and several emerging‐market economies have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the determinants of inclusive growth, defined in this paper as episodes of increases in GDP per capita without a concomitant deterioration in the distribution of household disposable income. The empirical analysis is based on a chronology of inclusive growth episodes between 1980 and 2013 for a sample of 78 countries. Logit and multinomial probit estimations show that human capital accumulation, the redistributive potential of tax‐benefit systems, increases in multifactor productivity and labor force participation, as well as trade openness and a range of institutional factors, including political system durability and electoral regimes, are important determinants of the probability of occurrence of inclusive growth. This empirical evidence contributes to the policy debate about how countries can deal with efficiency–equity tradeoffs.     

经济增长、收入分配的减贫效应探析——以新疆为例

运用FGT贫困指数,以新疆为例,基于Lorenz曲线对农村贫困变动进行测算。结果表明,经济增长具有明显的减贫作用,而收入分配不平等加剧则部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫作用。     

National pro-poor spending programmes and their effect on income inequality and poverty: Evidence from Vietnam

This article examines the causal effects of the national (pro-poor) targeted programmes (NTPs) on both poverty incidence and inequality in Vietnam over the period 2002–2010. While the links between NTPs and poverty alleviation and income inequality have previously been analysed independently, this study is the first to offer a comprehensive analysis of NTPs expenditure on poverty and inequality simultaneously. Applying the system generalized method of moments estimator to a panel of Vietnamese regional data, we are unable to establish that NTPs have significantly mitigated poverty incidence. However, we estimate that NTPs have significantly increased inequality. We offer possible explanations why the NTPs have resulted in these unintended outcomes and discuss potential policies which can reduce both poverty and inequality.     

包容性增长研究述评

传统的经济增长理论不考虑其对减贫和不平等的影响,然而,近年来减贫速度的下降和不平等的增长促使人们重新认识经济增长。作为利贫增长的替代,包容性增长成为世界银行和许多国家的发展战略,本文从定义、度量、诊断、机制和理论基础等方面详细介绍了包容性增长的产生、发展以及将来的研究方向。     

经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

在经济增长与减贫关系问题上,大量的实证研究仅仅用经济增长以及伴随增长过程的收入分配状态作为解释变量,其结论与现实的契合性不够稳定。通过在计量模型中加入产业结构、农业生产条件、农业扶贫与发展政策等关键性的中间变量,并采用跨越"八七扶贫攻坚"期间和新世纪"农村扶贫开发"两个发展时期的省际面板数据,实证分析表明经济增长在农村减贫中具有重要地位,城乡收入差距扩大对农村减贫具有显著的负效应。与现有的大量实证研究结论不同,本研究表明不同产业在经济发展的不同阶段对农村减贫的影响是不同的,三次产业发展对农村贫困的影响发生了一定程度的逆转。因此,新时期反贫困战略也应做出相应的调整。