金融期货与资本市场创新——中国工商银行第四期创新沙龙在北京召开

随着我国证券市场的发展壮大,市场对规避股市单边巨幅涨跌风险的要求日益迫切,金融期货因其价格发现与规避风险功能而成为管理层的必然选择。现在,金融期货的任何一个消息都牵动着资本市场乃至整个金融市场的神经,尤其是股指期货的推出时间和运作机制,不仅为广大投资者所关注,更为众多分享金融期货盛宴的金融机构所深入研究。投资者应采取什么样的股指期货投资策略来保值增值?商业银行在金融期货中有何作为?工商银行又将如何借助金融期货来拓展自身的发展空间?这些都将在本次沙龙中得到解答。     

论期货公司业务创新空间

本文在<期货交易管理条例>的法律框架内,从两个方面对我国期货公司的业务创新机遇进行分析:一是在现行金融市场和期货监管制度下期货公司的业务创新空间,二是在<期货交易管理条例>规制内,期货业务的制度创新空间.本文认为,在法规允许范嗣内积极开展与银行、信托公司、券商等金融机构的业务合作,是期货业务创新的现实突破口;以制度创新推动期货公司的业务创新,逐步扩大期货公司在境外期货、期货投资咨询与顾问、期货公司受托理财、期货交易顾问与期货基金等业务以及自有资本使用范围等方面的行政许可范围,将能真正打开期货公司业务创新的新天地.     

论期货市场品种的创新与发展

经过十余年的规范和整顿,我国期货市场已逐步摆脱低迷,正进入一个有序和快速的发展时期.新的期货品种不断上市,品种结构逐步完善,已成为期货市场发展的重要内容.本文从国际期货市场发展的历史中寻找出期货品种创新的规律和趋势,从宏观上为我国期货品种的创新提供借鉴和指导.     

高科技企业创新生态系统平台领导战略研究

高科技企业创新生态系统是基于关联互补技术由高科技企业在全球范围内形成的共存共生、共同进化的创新体系。"平台企业+互补企业"是其主要的组织模式。通过对微软、英特尔、思科、IBM等企业案例研究发现,创新生态系统平台领导战略包括:基于技术标准创新模式选择、平台接口开放与专利许可策略选择的技术标准化战略;基于合作盈利模式选择、合作伙伴等级制度制订、技术支持活动实施的创新激励战略;基于内部研发、合作研发、研发并购模式选择的互补技术研发战略;以及平台企业内外部冲突协调战略。     

The Goal Project: A Group Assignment to Encourage Creative Thinking,Leadership Abilities and Communication Skills

Abstract

The classroom assignment described in this paper, The Goal Project, gives students an opportunity to develop four of the skills and abilities required to be a successful accountant. In 1990, the Accounting Education Change Commission issued Position Statement Number One, Objectives of Education for Accountants. Appendix B of that statement contains eight categories of knowledge, skills, personal capacities and attitudes that are needed by accounting graduates. The Institute of Management Accountants has outlined the work of a management accountant to include working in small business teams and participating in strategic decision making. The project described in this paper replicates the work an accountant would perform when working in problem-solving teams. Data was collected and results are included from a questionnaire completed by 166 students who participated in The Goal Project. The results of perceived improvement in creative problem solving, leadership skills, and oral and written communication skills are presented.     

Creativity, Leadership and Change

The Department for Education and Employment's (DfEE) Permanent Secretary asks what needs to be done to deliver better public services. What are the priorities for modernization and how can these be achieved? He explains that the civil service has often under-valued management, skimped on management development, left project managers inadequately trained and recognized, and failed to reward effective service delivery. Improving delivery therefore requires a major cultural shift. He discusses four key issues: creativity, leadership, delivery, and community ownership.     

Futures Options and the Volatility of Futures Prices

Assuming nonstochastic interest rates, European futures options are shown to be European options written on a particular asset referred to as a futures bond. Consequently, standard option pricing results may be invoked and standard option pricing techniques may be employed in the case of European futures options. Additional arbitrage restrictions on American futures options are derived. The efficiency of a number of futures option markets is examined. Assuming that at-the-money American futures options are priced accurately by Black's European futures option pricing model, the relationship between market participants' ex ante assessment of futures price volatility and the term to maturity of the underlying futures contract is also investigated empirically.     

Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility

We examine the relation between futures price volatility and trading demand by type of trader in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500-stock index futures market. We find that volatility covaries negatively with signed speculative demand shocks but is positively related to signed hedging demand shocks. No significant relation between volatility and demand shocks for small traders is found. Our results suggest that changes in positions of large hedgers destabilize the market, whereas changes in positions of large speculators stabilize volatility. Consistent with models with asymmetrically informed traders, we find that large speculators are likely to possess superior forecasting ability, large hedgers behave like positive feedback traders, and small traders are liquidity traders.     

对商业银行服务创新的思考

面对日趋加剧的银行业竞争,本文在深入分析商业银行服务创新内涵、发展过程及趋势的基础上,指出商业银行加强服务创新具有现实的迫切性,服务创新将成为商业银行发展的核心竞争力.通过交通银行海南省分行服务创新的实践与经验,为商业银行加强服务创新提供借鉴.     

内蒙古社会管理创新的调查与思考

内蒙古近年来在改善民生、社会建设以及社会管理方面都取得了较大的发展与进步,但是由于我区的区域位置、战略地位、民族特点、发展状况和地域环境等因素不同于其他省市自治区,全面调查研究我区社会管理创新分析特殊性、总结近年来自治区各方努力的阶段性成绩、探讨存在的现实问题以及路径选择,为建成祖国北疆安全稳定屏障打下基础。     

期货投资基金与期货市场发展探讨

现代期货市场在套期保值和价格发现功能基础上演绎出丰富的功能类型。在发达国家,期货投资基金规模庞大,具有成熟的交易策略和交易技术,已经成为期货市场所有功能有效发挥的中坚力量。中国要全面提升期货市场功能,确保价格安全和产业安全,应加快探索期货投资基金的具体模式、市场结构和法律框架,将期货投资产业链中的各要素进行重新整合,确立不同品种期货的产业集群式发展模式。为此,政府应主动打破路径依赖,实现以投资者结构多样化为基础的期货市场全面创新。     

Futures India: society, nation-state, civilisation

The future of a phenomenon can only be understood in terms of (a) the conceptual construction one makes of it and (b) the changes in empirical content of that phenomenon. In turn, the empirical reality ought to be discerned in terms of the past-present-future dialectic. Keeping this in view, this paper begins with conceptual clarifications of the terms society, nation-state and civilization and situates India in terms of these notions. It is suggested that India’s future as a society and as a civilisation is durable although some changes in their content are inevitable. But as a ‘nation-state’ India may radically change given the contestations about it. Four competing value-orientations—cultural monism, cultural pluralism, cultural federalism and cultural subalternism—about the contemporary Indian nation-state have been identified. India’s future as a nation-state will depend upon the legitimacy these value orientations achieve in future.     

Futures Trading,Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.     

风险厌恶、失望厌恶和期货套期保值

本文考察失望厌恶对期货套期保值的影响。我们把一个不变的绝对风险厌恶（CARA）效用函数放进Gul（1991）的失望厌恶框架之内。它显示出，一个更厌恶失望的套期保值者会比一个厌恶失望程度较低的套期保值者选择一个更接近于最小方差套期保值的最优期货头寸。当套期保值者厌恶风险的程度较低时，失望厌恶的效应更强。对失望很小程度的厌恶会使一个接近于风险中性的套期保值者持有一个截然不同的头寸。此外，一个更厌恶风险或失望的套期保值者会有一个较低的参考点reference point。数字上的结果显示，厌恶失望的套期保值者的参考点往往会低于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者的参考点。于是，厌恶失望的套期保值者的行动会更加保守，利用机会牟利的行为会少于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者。     

News Releases, Market Integration, and Market Leadership

Using intraday data we examine the response of futures on the British Long Gilt (Gilt), the German Government Bond (Bund), the U.S. Treasury Bond (Bond), the Japanese Government Bond (JGB), and the Italian Government Bond (IGB) to the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Bond, Gilt, and Bund futures respond strongly to the news releases. The response of JGB futures is less pronounced, and IGB futures display weak responses at best. The instruments take time to adjust to news in the announcements. Following the announcements, Bond futures exert a high degree of market leadership. Evidence of increasing market integration is also noted.     

Futures studies and conflict

Has futures studies neglected research into war and violence in favour of more sympathetic topics ? The authors assess the criticisms levelled at futures studies by Yehezkel Dror, and the developments in the field since he made his comments.     

Futures sustainability

This article presents a strategic framework to guide public policy with respect to very long-term futures. The framework is based upon three fundamental principles. Threats to meeting the principles are assessed. Integrated planning responses to overcoming the threats are proposed. Significant changes in economic, political and social theory and organization required to support the strategic responses are discussed. It is argued that human civilization would need to pass through the mythic ‘singularity’ on the path to futures sustainability.