企业债务期限结构配置及其治理对策——湘火矩汽车股份案例

本文认为,债务期限结构错配是我国许多高速扩张企业出现流动性财务危机的主要原因之一,但在现有商业银行信贷期限结构错配和企业债券市场不发达的金融背景约束下,我国企业很难通过增加长期债务的方式来改变债务期限与资产期限错配的问题,唯有通过降低财务杠杆的方法来降低流动性风险。在现有金融市场条件下,企业现实的选择是债务期限结构错配和低财务杠杆,不能采用高财务杠杆方式来实现企业的高速增长,否则很容易陷入财务困境。     

Moral hazard,debt overhang and capital structure

This paper investigates the impact of managerial moral hazard on the debt overhang of a firm by constructing a contingent claims model in which the manager faces costly effort. Using a calibrated capital structure model, we show that the costs of debt overhang become more serious in the presence of managerial moral hazard. Such costs even account for more than half of the total agency costs at a high level of cash flow. Moreover, in contrast to the results of Hackbarth and Mauer (2012), our model predicts a U-shaped relationship between the leverage ratio and investment opportunities of a firm, which is caused by managers’ moral hazard. Finally, by considering this moral hazard, we also show the coexistence of low leverage ratios and high credit spreads, which explains the phenomenon of “low debt levels and high credit spreads” observed in practice.     

Prices,debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market

We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents interact by trading a risky asset at an endogenously set price. Agents are endowed with balance sheets comprising the risky asset as well as cash on the asset side and equity capital as well as debt on the liabilities side. A number of findings emerge when simulating the model: we find that the empirically observable log-normal distribution of bank balance sheet size naturally emerges and that higher levels of leverage lead to a greater inequality among agents. Furthermore, greater leverage increases the frequency of bankruptcies and systemic events. Credit frictions, which we define as the stickiness of debt adjustments, are able to explain a key difference in the relation between leverage and assets observed for different bank types. Lowering credit frictions leads to an increasingly procyclical behavior of leverage, which is typical for investment banks. Nevertheless, the impact of credit frictions on the fragility of the model financial system is complex. Lower frictions do increase the stability of the system most of the time, while systemic events become more probable. In particular, we observe an increasing frequency of severe liquidity crises that can lead to the collapse of the entire model financial system.     

Financial fragility,sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs

We show that with intertwined weak banks and weak sovereigns, bank recapitalizations become much less effective. We construct a DSGE model with leverage constrained banks lending to firms and holding domestic government bonds. Bond prices reflect endogenously generated sovereign risk. This introduces a negative amplification cycle: after a credit crisis output losses increase more because higher interest rates trigger lower bond prices and subsequent losses at banks. This further tightens bank leverage constraints, and causes interest rates to rise further. Also bank recapitalizations are then much less effective. Recaps involve swaps of newly issued sovereign bonds for bank equity, the new debt increases sovereign debt discounts, leading to capital losses for the banks on their holdings of sovereign debt that (partially) offset the impact of the recapitalization. The favorable macroeconomic effects of bank recaps on the recovery after a financial crisis are correspondingly lower.     

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER CREDIT AND DEFAULT LITERATURE

This survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default, and some ongoing challenges for the literature. Key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies, the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets, delinquency and informal bankruptcy, debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt, the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default, and the insurance role of household debt. Implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed. Several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted.     

信息披露质量与债务成本——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

以深圳证券市场部分A股上市公司为样本,研究了我国上市公司信息披露质量与企业债务成本之同的关系.研究发现,样本公司的债务成本与信息披露质量之间存在显著的负相关关系,也即信息披露质量越高,债务成本越低,而且这一结果是稳健的.此外,企业的市场风险越大,信息披露质量对债务成本的影响程度就越大.     

债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应

研究目标：中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法：基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现：中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应：当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新：引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值：对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。     

The great rotation in global credit risks

• ? The pattern of global credit risks looks very different today than in 2007. Risks are now mostly centred in China and emerging markets. “Excess” private debt in China is as high as $3 trillion compared with $1.7 trillion in the US a decade ago. Yet some pockets of significant risk still exist in advanced economies, which not only implies vulnerability to rising interest rates, but also that the scope for rate rises may be limited.
• ? With policy normalisation underway in the US and the scaling back of asset purchases expected to start soon in the Eurozone, we focus on assessing vulnerabilities across global credit markets. This article explores the topic using a top‐down, cross‐country approach. We find that although private debt and debt service ratios look more benign in advanced economies than a decade ago, they have deteriorated markedly in many emerging markets in recent years.
• ? Based on a measure of excess private debt – comparing private credit‐to‐GDP ratios with their trend – China, Hong Kong and Canada are the riskiest. When comparing debt service ratios relative to their long‐term averages, risks are also mainly concentrated in emerging countries. But Canada, Australia and some smaller European countries also have high debt service ratios that have failed to drop since 2007, despite the slump in global interest rates.
• ? Overall, aggregate private debt indicators look less worrying than in 2007. We would also argue that the concentration of excess private debt levels in China reduces the risk of a sudden financial crisis based on massive credit losses, such as the one in 2007–2010. But with corporate debt levels in the US, Canada and some other G7 countries above their long‐term trend, investors need to be attentive to these considerable pockets of risk.

     

经济责任审计覆盖率与地方国有企业杠杆治理--来自地方审计机关的经验证据

在供给侧结构性改革和审计全覆盖的大背景下,本文探讨了经济责任审计覆盖率对地方国有企业杠杆治理的影响。研究发现,经济责任审计覆盖率的提升可以有效降低地方国有企业的有息负债率;从地区层面来看,在政府干预程度较大的地区该影响更为显著;从企业层面来看,在金字塔层级较多的上市公司中该影响更为显著。进一步分析发现,经济责任审计覆盖率的提升会降低地方国有企业获得的贷款期限,同时提高企业贷款使用效率和地区的信贷配置效率。本文的研究结论可为国家审计在国资国企改革中发挥作用提供一定的启示。     

Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit

This paper utilizes quarterly panel data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1975:Q1–2014:Q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set of multivariate logit models, we find that booms in credit to both households and non‐financial enterprises are important to account for when evaluating the stability of the financial system. In addition, we find that global housing market developments have predictive power for domestic financial stability. Finally, econometric measures of bubble‐like behavior in housing and credit markets enter with positive and highly significant coefficients. Specifically, we find that the probability of a crisis increases markedly when bubble‐like behavior in house prices coincides with high household leverage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Debt financing and maintenance expenditure: Theory and evidence on government-operated toll roads in China

Transportation infrastructure is the foundation of economic growth, and the existence of high-quality roads is inseparable from their durable maintenance. However, the burden of heavy debt has brought risks to maintenance management and distorted resource allocation. This study builds a two-stage optimal theoretical model under different debt-financing constraints in China, who has the longest expressway mileage of any country in the world. We establish the two principles of “spend-and-debt” and “debt-and-spend” to demonstrate the substitution effect and the complementary effect of debt financing on maintenance, respectively. Furthermore, we use a time-varying differences-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of the financing of tollway bonds on maintenance and further discuss the mechanism. The results provide evidence that there is a significant improvement in the relationship between tollway bonds and maintenance expenditure, mainly due to the reduction of debt costs and the passive propelling of the government’s spending responsibility. Our proposed theoretical and empirical framework sheds new light on transportation infrastructure research. More specifically, the impetus for public expenditure comes from a decrease of the substitution effect, which not only alleviates the burden of debt scale on the public sector but also provides a reference for developing countries to balance infrastructure construction and maintenance.     

Estimating debt capacity of New York State health facilities

A measure of the capacity to take on new debt is developed for health facilities. This measure is a function of the current financial position of the facility, future financial market conditions (interest rates and bond/loan maturities), and a policy variable (the debt service coverage ratio) to be set by state health policy makers. The quality of this measure was shown to depend on the quality of current health facility financial accounting data, on the quality of forecasts of interest rates and future cashflow, and on the appropriateness of the criterion debt service coverage ratio. Some of the limitations of the estimate are discussed. Consideration of the debt capacity estimate serves to highlight some crucial issues in imposing capital expenditure limits, namely the interrelationships between financial viability, interest rates and access to capital markets.     

Credit allocation and the financial crisis: evidence from Spanish companies

The worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008 raised serious concerns about the soundness of banks’ activities and about the extent to which banking regulation should supervise banks’ investment decisions. We contribute to this topic by examining the Spanish case, which has been emblematic of the bubble and burst dynamics in the credit market. In particular, we study the allocation of bank credit among Spanish companies from 1999 to 2014, showing that larger companies accumulated greater amounts of bank loans per unit of total assets, thus leading to a notable concentration. We also find that, during the Spanish boom period, bank loans shifted from the manufacturing to the construction industry, and in particular to the largest companies of the latter sector. This happened in spite of the high leverage of large construction firms, which was increasing also due to their growing debt. We argue that the higher operating benefits, reflecting the increase of the housing price during the boom period, overvalued construction firms as potential borrowers. The bankruptcy of several large construction companies during the Spanish crisis supports the need for monitoring and regulation, to avoid an excessive concentration of bank credit to a few large companies, especially if they belong to a specific sector.

     

负债代理成本影响因素实证分析——来自我国上市公司的证据

本文以我国上市公司面板数据及横截面数据为基础,运用线性回归分析对影响公司负债代理成本的因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,负债代理成本与债务期限结构、公司规模、财务灵活性及盈利能力的变化显著负相关;与公司未来成长性、资产期限、负债规模的变化显著正相关。     

数字金融如何影响企业现金持有？

基于2011—2020年中国上市企业数据和城市层面的数字普惠金融指数,考察了数字金融对企业现金持有的影响。研究发现,数字金融发展显著增加了区域内企业的现金持有,且数字金融分指标中除了覆盖广度和数字化程度外,二级指标中的数字支付和互联网信贷业务均会显著增加企业现金持有。进一步分析发现,数字金融通过提高经营活动现金流、抑制企业杠杆率和降低债务融资等机制增加了企业现金持有。此外,对于规模较小、民营和弱银企关系的企业而言,数字金融对企业现金持有的影响更显著。研究结论丰富了数字金融发展的经济后果,也拓展了现金持有理论的分析框架。     

How Debt Creates Pressure to Perform when Information Asymmetries are Large: Empirical Evidence from Business Start‐ups

In this paper, we empirically examine how leverage affects firm performance when information asymmetries are large. We argue that entrepreneurs are strongly incentivized to maximize earnings when leverage is high in order to reduce the likelihood of adverse credit decisions and firm liquidation. Our empirical tests focus on the effects of leverage on firm profitability and growth in earnings during a 5‐year window after start‐up for a large and unique sample of newly established ventures in Belgium. Accounting for the endogeneity of leverage, the data reveal that more highly indebted business start‐ups are not only more profitable but also realize larger earnings growth. Moreover, the positive effect of leverage on firm profitability intensifies as the venture matures.     

Towards a credit network based early warning indicator for crises

This paper presents an agent based model which underlines the importance of credit network and leverage dynamics in determining the resilience of the system, defining an early warning indicator for crises. The model reproduces macroeconomic dynamics emerging from the interactions of heterogeneous banks and firms in an endogenous credit network. Banks and firms are linked through multiple credit relations, which derive from individual target leverage choices: agents choose the more convenient leverage level, according to a basic reinforcement learning algorithm. Simulations are calibrated on balance sheet data of banks and firms quoted in the Japanese stock-exchange markets from 1980 to 2012.     

Initial Financial Conditions,Unobserved Heterogeneity and the Survival of Nascent Canadian Manufacturing Firms

The firm dynamics literature has stressed productivity, size, and age effects in firm duration. Understanding the implications of financial state has largely been unexplored because of the lack of quality data on private entrant firms. This paper investigates the role of start‐up financial conditions (debt‐to‐asset ratio) on the duration of entrant manufacturing firms using a unique administrative firm‐level database called T2LEAP. The debt‐to‐asset ratio has an economically and statistically significant effect on firm hazard after controlling for usual covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Further, a non‐monotonic relationship between firm hazard and leverage appears. Firm hazard varies positively with leverage for firms in the top two leverage quintiles, whereas hazard rates fall with leverage in the lower quintiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt

This paper analyses the effect of short term debt on equityholders' risk taking decisions. We show that if short term debt limits the expropriation of debtholders, it also implies a lower leverage, which prevents the firm from increasing tax shields. We then examine the incentive of equityholders to increase the firm risk when debtholders hold the option to swap a perpetual coupon bond with short term debt. We find that this option mitigates equityholders' risk shifting incentives. Compared to standard short term debt, this restructuring option deters debtholders expropriation, it increases leverage and it reduces the loss in tax shields due to asset substitution.     

Do institutional investors monitor management? Evidence from the relationship between institutional ownership and capital structure

We examine the dynamic relations between institutional ownership and a firm's capital structure. We find that a firm's leverage decreases when institutional ownership increases. This result implies that a firm reduces its debt level as institutional investors substitute for the monitoring role of debt. More importantly, we find that a firm's suboptimal leverage decreases when the institutional ownership increases, and institutional ownership decreases when a firm's suboptimal leverage increases. This finding shows that institutions not only effectively monitor a firm's capital structure but they also passively sell their shares when dissatisfied with it. In addition, we find that the monitoring evidence on a firm's leverage and suboptimal leverage are more pronounced when the institutional investors are less likely to have business relationships with a firm or the information asymmetry is high in the market.