Managerial Sharing,Mutual Fund Connections,and Performance

In this study, we examine the effect of mutual fund connections, through managerial sharing, on performance and stock holding commonalities. Our analysis of return correlations and portfolio holdings indicates that more interconnected funds tend to buy and sell similar stocks, hence increasing the similarity of portfolio holdings and undermining the distinctiveness of their investment strategy. Our results also indicate that highly connected funds significantly underperform weakly connected funds by about 1.4% on a yearly risk‐adjusted basis. We show that fund family performance is unaffected by the intensity of fund connections, and that greater fund connections could significantly enhance family‐level profit margins.     

When Is a Firm's Information Asymmetry Priced? The Role of Institutional Investors

This study reexamines the competing claims that probability of informed trading (PIN) is priced in the cross‐section of stock returns while adjusted PIN (AdjPIN), the component of PIN related to information asymmetry, is not. We find that behind these seemingly contradicting conclusions is the role of institutional investors, and the pricing of PIN and AdjPIN depends on institutional ownership. Only for those stocks with low institutional ownership are both PIN and AdjPIN priced. Our findings imply that investors require compensation for information risk only from stocks with low institutional ownership.     

Stock return predictability of the cumulative abnormal returns around the earnings announcement date: Evidence from China

We find that cumulative abnormal returns adjusted by size, book-to-market, and momentum around the earnings announcement date (DGTW_CAR3 hereafter) significantly and positively predict stock returns in the 6-month period from May 2005 to October 2020 in the China's A-shares market. The monthly equally-weighted DGTW_CAR3 premiums are 0.47% and 0.67% after risk adjustment. Although stock price delay fails to fully account for the DGTW_CAR3 premium, we find that the DGTW_CAR3 premium is more significant for illiquid stocks and during periods with high investor sentiment. This result suggests that market inefficiency explains the DGTW_CAR3 premium. Further analysis shows that, in addition to earnings information, the optimism reflected in the management discussion and analysis section of the annual or half-year report also contributes to the DGTW_CAR3 premium. This finding implies that DGTW_CAR3 may contain new fundamental information that correlates significantly and positively with future stock performance. Finally, we find that the institutional ownership change of a stock associated with DGTW_CAR3 also significantly and positively predicts the stock's return, suggesting that institutional investors adjust their holdings according to DGTW_CAR3 and consequently influence the demand for the stock in the China's A-shares market.     

Stock volatility and pension funds under an individual capitalization-based system

The existence of feedback effects between volatility and institutional investor holdings has been extensively studied for the United States. This article contributes to the literature by investigating this issue for Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) in Chile. To this end, data on PFAs' holdings is gathered for 42 firms actively traded on the Santiago Stock Exchange during December 2002–July 2008. The main findings of this study are the following. First, an increase in PFAs' stock holdings translates into a mild effect on stock return volatility. Second, an increase in stock return volatility leads to a moderate decrease in PFAs' stock holdings, suggesting PFAs' preference for safer stocks. The key policy implication of these conclusions is that PFAs' stock trading does not have a destabilizing impact on the domestic stock market.     

Variation in Corporate Governance and Firm Valuation – an International Study

In this paper, we investigate the types of firms that are likely to deviate from common practice in corporate governance of their home countries and examine how the deviation is correlated with firm value. Our results show that firms with higher institutional holdings, lower insider holdings, and higher sales growth are more likely to deviate from common practice in civil law countries, whereas, in common law countries, especially in the USA, firms with lower institutional holdings, higher insider holdings, and lower sales growth are likely to deviate from common practice. We document a strong positive correlation between governance deviation and firm value in civil law countries. This relationship is robust to different testing and sample selection methods. The results, however, are mixed for US firms and not significant in other common law countries. Using the deviation from common practice as a proxy of firm‐level impact on corporate governance, our results provide evidence that firm‐level effect matters in governance quality and the effect varies across countries.     

The Analysis of 52‐Week High Investing Strategy Based on Herding Behavior

The present study develops zero‐costing strategies that are based on the 52‐week high and herding behavior. Proximity of the current price to the 52‐week high and the level of herding behavior of individual/institutional investors are the two criteria used to screen stocks. Because herding behavior affects stocks that are associated with value‐related beliefs that investors are reluctant to revise, the level‐of‐herding criterion uses the 52‐week high strategy to improve profits. The present study examines strategy profits in Taiwan, a market in which more than 70% of investors are individuals and where the level of herding among individual investors is higher than that for institutional investors. Empirical results found that profits earned using zero‐costing strategies, identified both using the 52‐week high and herding, were larger than those earned using only the 52‐week high strategy. Furthermore, stocks with values that were far from their 52‐week high made significant and positive profits through buy‐herding and by shorting sell‐herding stocks.     

Does it Really Hurt to be Responsible?

Prior literature on socially responsible investment has contended that excluding “sin stocks” from a portfolio (negative screening) will reduce performance and increase risk. Further, incorporating stocks of firms with positive social responsibility scores (positive screening) will improve performance and reduce risk. We simulate portfolios designed to mimic typical equity mutual funds’ holdings and investigate these propositions. We remove the potentially confounding influences of differences in manager skill, transaction costs and fees, and conduct a clean experiment on the effect of positive and negative portfolio screening. We find no difference in the return or risk of screened and unscreened portfolios. We conclude that a typical socially responsible fund will neither gain nor lose from screening its portfolio.     

Common Risk Factors Versus a Mispricing Factor of Tokyo Stock Exchange Firms: Inquiries into the Fundamental Value Derived from Analyst Earnings Forecasts*

We search for common factors and/or a mispricing factor for Tokyo Stock Exchange firms. We utilize the Edwards–Bell–Ohlson model to compute the firms' fundamental value and divide this value by the firms' market price to construct a new variable called a ‘value‐to‐price ratio’ (VPR). We find that this VPR variable can generate abnormal returns even after adjusting for the risk factors related to portfolio style differences. To find out whether it is indeed a risk factor or simply a characteristic, we construct return difference portfolios of the high VPR stocks minus the low value‐to‐price stocks and call this portfolio the upward‐forecast minus downward‐forecast (UMD) factor. Fama and MacBeth test indicate that the risk premium for this UMD factor is positive. The best model in terms of the adjusted R² value is the four‐factor model in which the UMD factor is added to the Fama and French three factors. GMM Euler condition tests reveal that the UMD factor helps to price assets and that the four‐factor model is not rejected. We conclude the VPR variable contains new information content that is not contained in the conventional Fama and French's three factors.     

The Effect of Governance Mechanisms on Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprise Cash Holdings: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper investigates the impact of governance mechanisms on small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) cash holdings from 2000 to 2009, employing static and dynamic panel data analyses. We find no evidence that firm governance index and insider ownership affect cash holdings. This might indicate that governance mechanisms in SMEs are relatively weak. We also report that chief executive officer compensation has a positive effect on cash holdings. Firm‐specific factors such as firm size, leverage, and liquidity negatively affect cash holdings, whereas the research and development ratio and operating risk are positively associated with them. Finally, SMEs have target cash holdings and adjust to these.     

Large Shareholder Activism in Corporate Governance in Developing Countries: Evidence from India

Most of the existing evidence on the effectiveness of large shareholders in corporate governance has been restricted to a handful of developed countries, notably the UK, US, Germany and Japan. This paper provides evidence on the role of large shareholders in monitoring company value with respect to a developing and emerging economy, India, whose corporate governance system is a hybrid of the outsider‐dominated market‐based systems of the UK and the US, and the insider‐dominated bank‐based systems of Germany and Japan. The picture of large‐shareholder monitoring that emerges from our case study of Indian corporates is a mixed one. Like many of the existing studies, while we find blockholdings by directors to increase company value after a certain level of holdings, we find no evidence that institutional investors, typically mutual funds, are active in governance. We find support for the efficiency of the German/Japanese bank‐based model of governance; our results suggest that lending institutions start monitoring the company effectively once they have substantial equity holdings in the company and that this monitoring is reinforced by the extent of debt holdings by these institutions. Our analysis also highlights that foreign equity ownership has a beneficial effect on company value. In general, our analysis supports the view emerging from developed country studies that the identity of large shareholders matters in corporate governance.     

Is Firm‐specific Return Variation a Measure of Information Efficiency?

The issue of whether firm‐specific return variation measures the private information reflected in stock returns or trading noise is controversial. Using a firm's geographic proximity to its investors as a proxy for a firm's private information, we investigate the relation between firm‐specific return variation and price informativeness. We find that firms located in metropolitan areas experience higher firm‐specific return variation and that holdings and trading by local institutional investors positively affect firm‐specific return variation. These findings suggest that higher firm‐specific return variation is indicative of more informative stock prices.     

The Roles of Gender and Marital Status on Risky Asset Allocation Decisions

We analyze data on asset allocations in individual retirement accounts to examine the roles of marital status and gender on investment decisions. We utilize data from two birth cohorts to understand the relationship over a wide age range. We find that, in their 30s and early 40s, men are more likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks in individual retirement accounts compared to women. The gender difference disappears around retirement age; however, a significant difference by marital status emerges in that age group. Divorced and widowed individuals are less likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks compared to married individuals in their 60s. While there exists a positive gap in stock holdings between married men and married women in their 30s, the gender gap is nonexistent among older individuals. Using paired data on stock holdings in the older birth cohort, we show that husbands' and wives' asset allocations in individual retirement accounts are strongly correlated, coinciding with the lack of a gender gap in stock holdings among older couples.     

Factor Exposures of Foreign Equity Capital in a Domestic Stock Market: Evidence from Korea

In this paper, we examine the factor exposures of foreign equity capital in a domestic stock market in order to understand its risk‐taking behavior and sources of returns in the market. Using data from Korea for the 1999–2013 period, we find that foreigners are strongly exposed to the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) factor, which is long on low‐IVOL stocks and short on high‐IVOL stocks. That is, foreign equity capital is typically allocated to low‐IVOL stocks and profits from the return differential between low‐IVOL and high‐IVOL stocks. We also find that foreign equity capital moves in a way that it is loaded more on the IVOL factor when the IVOL factor premium is larger. We discuss the comparative advantage of foreign equity capital in bearing the IVOL factor risk and the role of information asymmetry between locals and foreigners in this risk sharing. We also provide additional empirical results that support our interpretation.     

Derivatives trading,volatility spillover,and regulation: Evidence from the Korean securities markets

Unlike the U.S. and Japanese securities markets, we find new evidence of volatility spillover between index stocks and non‐index stocks following the introductions of index derivatives trading in the Korean securities markets. We further find that the degree of volatility spillover is closely related to the level of market deregulation; significant return volatility spills over from non‐index to index stocks during deregulation period but in the opposite direction during post‐deregulation period. Our empirical results show that the former volatility spillover from non‐index to index stocks can be explained by the transitory contagion effect associated with the 1997 Korean financial crisis and the subsequent market deregulation, whereas the latter volatility spillover from index to non‐index stocks is attributed to the permanent information spillover effect. This latter evidence suggests that the information regarding investors' expectations on the future common market factors is first reflected into the return volatility of index stocks and then transferred to the trading of non‐index stocks against which derivatives are not traded. Our results are robust to different estimation and sample construction methods. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:563–597, 2009     

Market Timing With Moving Averages

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.     

Updating the estimation of the supply of storage

An updated supply of storage is estimated to reflect recent developments in the literature. This study adds a measure of price variability, specifically implied volatility. It also adds a measure of the call‐option value to sell stocks before the end of the storage period, specifically a measure developed by Heaney (2002). The model is estimated for U.S. soybean stocks carried between crop years. A quadratic relationship is found between stocks to use ratio and implied volatility. A statistically significant, inverse, linear relationship is found between the storage‐cost–adjusted spread and the estimated call‐option value. This finding is consistent with the much debated idea that convenience yield is a return to storage that can offset losses from storage when intertemporal price spreads are negative. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:657–676, 2006     

Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets

This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on stock price efficiency and return predictability in emerging markets. It finds that stocks fully investible for foreign investors exhibit stronger price momentum than non‐investible stocks. The difference in momentum effects between stocks with different levels of investibility cannot be fully explained by world market risk, size, turnover, or country‐specific factors. Further tests show that fully investible stocks have no post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and their short‐term momentum reverses over a longer horizon. These results show that the stronger momentum of highly investible stocks does not appear to be driven by foreign investors' underreaction to firm‐specific information, but is more likely to be generated by their positive feedback trading.     

Institutional investors,selling pressure and crash risk: Evidence from China

Inconsistent with prior literature on the US stock market, our evidence shows the negative role of institutional investors who exacerbate subsequent crash risk in China. This is because institutional ownership amplifies the selling pressure in response to firm’s bad news, which in turn leads to higher stock price crash risk. The positive relation between institutional ownership and crash risk is more (less) pronounced for transient (dedicated) institutional investors, suggesting the selling pressure of short-term investors is heavier. Additionally, competition of institutional investors strengthens institutional selling pressure and hence exacerbates the effect of institutional ownership on crash risk.     

The Impact of Liquidity Risk: A Fresh Look*

This paper takes a fresh look at the importance of liquidity risk using a comprehensive liquidity measure, weighted spread, in a Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) framework. The weighted spread measure extracts liquidity costs by order size from the limit order book. Using a unique, representative data set of 160 German stocks over 5.5 years, we show that liquidity risk is an important risk component. Actually, liquidity risk is increasing the total price risk by over 25%, even at 10‐day horizons and for liquid blue chip stocks and especially in larger, yet realistic order sizes beyond €1 million. When correcting for liquidity risk, it is commonly assumed that liquidity risk can be simply added to price risk. Our empirical results show that this is not correct, as the correlation between liquidity and price is non‐perfect and total risk is thus overestimated.     

Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages

A combination of simple moving average trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared with buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, momentum, and standard deviation as well as more than 1000 individual US stocks. The combination moving average (CMA) strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 2% to 16% per year before transaction costs. The performance of the CMA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the market dividend yield, short‐term interest rates, and market conditions, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the CMA strategy.