The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain*

We provide the first Spanish evidence about the effects on re‐employment probabilities of variations in benefit levels and time‐to‐exhaustion. Increases in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels had a small disincentive effect on the re‐employment hazard on average. Around this average, there were larger disincentive effects for men with elapsed durations between 4 and 18 months, whereas for men unemployed longer than 18 months, or for men resident in the south, the effect was negligible. Re‐employment hazards increased when UI exhaustion was imminent, but the change was small. Extensions to unemployment assistance eligibility in 1989 for men aged 45+ years lowered re‐employment probabilities.     

Potential Unemployment Benefit Duration and Spell Length: Lessons from a Quasi-Experiment in Austria

The paper studies the effect of potential unemployment benefit duration on the length of unemployment spells in Austria. It takes advantage of a quasi-experimental situation, where potential benefit duration was extended in 1988 for elderly workers living in specific regions of the country. The empirical analysis shows that men react significantly to benefit duration whereas women generally do not. The quantitative impact is smaller than in comparable studies for the US and Germany. Furthermore, the impact of extended benefit duration is differentiated for short and long spells. Whereas for long spells higher impacts for men as well as for women are found, no unemployment-prolonging effects for short spells could be detected.     

Tied Migration and Subsequent Employment: Evidence from Couples in Britain*

We use unique information on migration behaviour and reasons for migration to study the impact of tied migration on labour market outcomes among husbands and wives. Fewer than 2% of couples migrate for job‐related reasons and the majority of these move for reasons associated with the husband's job. Estimates from dynamic random‐effects models indicate that husbands and wives in couples that migrated for job‐related reasons suffer lower job retention rates than non‐migrants. Tied migration reduces the probability of subsequent employment for both husbands and wives and in particular has a large negative impact on job retention rates among wives.     

Self‐screening Effects of Monitoring: Evidence from a Quasi Experiment in the Swedish Temporary Parental Benefit Program

Monitoring and screening have been shown to be important to reduce moral hazard in social insurances. This paper empirically investigates whether monitoring in the Swedish temporary parental benefit program affects future benefit take‐up. Identification is based on the fact that parents’ benefit applications are monitored randomly by the insurer. The estimation results show that parents who are monitored are less likely to apply again in the near future.     

The Effects of Consumption Variability on Saving: Evidence from a Panel of Muscovite Households**

Due to the high uncertainty characterizing them, transition economies provide an extraordinary opportunity to test the precautionary saving hypothesis. This paper represents an attempt to exploit this opportunity. We use a panel of 2,346 Muscovite households, over the 12 months of 1996, to construct two time‐varying measures of consumption growth variability, which we use as proxies for households’ perceived uncertainty. We then regress household saving on these uncertainty variables using a GMM‐system estimator. We find that both uncertainty measures generally have a positive and statistically significant effect on saving. This result, which is robust to the use of different measures of saving, supports the precautionary saving hypothesis.     

The Productivity Effects of Internal and External R&D: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model*

We examine the impact of internal and external R&D on labour productivity in a 6‐year panel of Dutch manufacturing firms. We apply a dynamic panel data model that allows for decreasing or increasing returns to scale in internal and external R&D and for economies of scope. We find complementarity between internal and external R&D, with a positive impact of external R&D only evident in case of sufficient internal R&D. These findings confirm the role of internal R&D in enhancing absorptive capacity. The scope economies are accompanied by decreasing returns to scale at high levels of internal and external R&D. The analysis indicates that productivity grows by increasing the share of external R&D in total R&D.     

Home Ownership and School Outcomes of Children: Evidence from the PSID Child Development Supplement

Using the PSID Child Development Supplement (CDS) and the corresponding PSID main data sets, we examine whether home ownership has positive effects on the academic achievement of children after correcting for selectivity bias and controlling for home environment, neighborhood quality, residential stability, and income. While we find no independent effects of home ownership, there are positive significant effects of home environment, neighborhood quality, and residential stability on the reading and math performance of children between the ages of three and twelve. The main policy implication of our study is that improvement of a child's home environment, residential stability, and the quality of the neighborhood is more important than ownership of a home to achieve better child outcomes. Subsidized home ownership can lead to better child outcomes to the extent that it places a child in a better home environment, in a more stable residence, and in a better neighborhood.     

Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children

In this paper we examine whether homeowning benefits children by testing whether children of homeowners stay in school longer than children of renters and whether daughters of homeowners are less likely to have children as teenagers than daughters of renters. We use both probit models and a bivariate probit technique which takes account of possible selection bias due to differences between parents who choose to own versus rent. We find in several data sets that both effects are statistically significant and quantitatively important—particularly for low-income households. We also estimate that the dollar benefit per low- income household of parents being homeowners rather than renters is at least $31,000.     

Productivity Shocks and Labour Market Outcomes for Top Earners: Evidence from Italian Serie A

How are top earners affected by productivity shocks? We address this question using a unique longitudinal data set on the universe of professional football players in the Italian Serie A, representing 20% of top earners in Italy. We use traumatic injuries and adopt an IV strategy to provide causal estimates of the impact of productivity shocks on several labour market outcomes. We find that a 30-day injury substantially affects the probability of contract renegotiation and reduces net wages by around 12%. We show that this large penalty is due to employer's precautionary motives rather than to shock-induced reduction in current player's performance.     

Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

Individual and Neighborhood Effects on FHA Mortgage Activity: Evidence from HMDA Data

The effects of individual and neighborhood characteristics on relative FHA-insured mortgage applications and originations are examined. A sample of low- and moderate-income households drawn from the 1990 and 1991 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act is analyzed using census tract data. Although the relationship between relative FHA-insured mortgage activity and minority composition in a census tract is not significant, there is a negative relationship between median family income and FHA-insured mortgage activity controlling for individual characteristics of borrowers and some census tract characteristics.     

控制权转移、企业绩效与大股东利益侵占——来自上市公司高管变更的经验证据

Shleifer和Vishny(1986)指出,大股东对公司治理会产生两种相反的效应,即利益协同效应和利益侵占效应.那么,我国上市公司的控制权转移会带来什么效应呢?本文选定2000～2004年发生控制权转移的上市公司为样本,考察了控制权转移后高管变更对大股东利益侵占的影响,在此基础上进一步分析了大股东利益侵占对企业绩效的影响,接着建立联立方程并采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)检验了控制权转移、企业绩效与大股东利益侵占三者之间的关系.研究结果表明,控制权转移后高管变更确实对大股东利益侵占产生了正的影响,同时,大股东利益侵占又对企业绩效产生了负向的作用.与以往不同的是,我们引入了高管变更和大股东利益侵占变量,更好地解释了上市公司控制权转移后对企业绩效的影响.     

Neighbourhood Effects as Indirect Effects: Evidence from a Dutch Case Study on the Significance of Neighbourhood for Employment Trajectories

One of the key challenges in the study of neighbourhood effects on work is to understand the pathways through which disadvantaged neighbourhoods impact the employment opportunities of residents. Endogenous explanations for neighbourhood effects focus on social life in these neighbourhoods, identifying mechanisms of social isolation, deviant work ethics and neighbourhood disorder. This article studies these mechanisms in a low‐income neighbourhood in the Netherlands. The case study shows that unfavourable socioeconomic outcomes can be indirect and unintended consequences of actions and choices in everyday life that are not directly concerned with work. Nevertheless, these individual actions and choices reflect local social practices that are influenced by the marginalized context in which residents lead their lives.     

The Labour Market Effects of Increases in Social Insurance Premium: Evidence from Japan

Exploiting heterogeneous variations in labour cost increases due to Japan's 2003 social insurance premium reform as a natural experiment, we estimate the impacts of the increased social insurance premiums on employment, working hours and payroll costs. Using the difference‐in‐differences method with establishment fixed effects, we find that firms reduce the number of employees and increase average annual earnings from longer working hours in response to an exogenous increase in labour costs without productivity gains. Firms manage to pay for this increase in the average wage paid to the remaining workers by reducing the number of employees to keep total payroll costs unchanged. In contrast, since social insurance premiums are shared equally between employees and employers, firms pay the remaining half premiums that they are imposed with. Sub‐sample analyses show that firms adhering to a labour hoarding policy did fire many workers taking advantage of the 2003 reform. This may indicate that the reform provided a good excuse to cut employment in firms that had been forced to comply with a labour hoarding policy even in an over‐employment situation, which is more likely in sectors and countries where dismissals are rigorously regulated.     

Graduates,Dropouts and Slow Finishers: The Effects of Credit Constraints on University Outcomes

The effect of credit constraints on university outcomes is studied. Credit constraints have a negative relationship with dropout, especially on lower achieving high school graduates. Credit constrained students with strong high school achievement are 13–15% more (less) likely to graduate (be slow finishers) relative to otherwise similar students who are potentially or unlikely constrained. Using competing risk analysis, we find dropout is most likely in the first year of study and falls over time for all students. After 3 years of study, the risk of dropout increases for students who are constrained suggesting constraints may eventually bind on these students.     

政府审计效能对审计工作成果的影响研究——来自中国省级审计机关的经验证据

以省级审计机关的数据为样本,实证分析了政府审计效能对审计工作成果的影响。研究发现,在政府审计效能的三个衡量指标中,虽然审计移送案件处理率对审计工作成果没有显著影响,但是上一年度的审计处理处罚金额落实率、审计工作报告采用率均与未来年度的审计工作成果显著正相关,并且后者对审计成果的影响更大。因此要对审计结果的开发予以重视,利用其提高政府审计效能,进而完善审计工作成果,促进审计机关公信力的提升。     

Deregulating Overtime Hours Restrictions on Women and its Effects on Female Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Japan

This paper provides novel evidence on the effect of deregulating overtime hours restrictions on women by using the 1985 Amendments to the Labour Standards Act (LSA) in Japan as a natural experiment. The original LSA of 1947 prohibited women from working overtime exceeding two hours a day; six hours a week; and 150 hours a year. The 1985 Amendments exempted a variety of occupations and industries from such an overtime restriction on women. Applying a difference‐in‐difference model to census data, we find causal evidence pointing to the positive effect of this particular piece of labour market deregulation on the proportion of female employment. We then carry out a series of sensitivity analyses to ensure the robustness of our finding. Especially, we conduct a falsification test and an event study to show that our causal inference is not threatened by the differential pretreatment trends. Finally, we use quantile regressions and find that for jobs with more rapidly growing proportion of female employment, the effect of the exemption from the overtime work restriction on women is larger.     

The age-productivity gradient: Evidence from a sample of F1 drivers

Estimating the effect of aging on productivity requires clean measures of productivity. Additionally, one needs to control for unobserved heterogeneity at the worker, firm and worker/firm level, to account for the role of experience and to correct for selection bias. We tackle these issues exploiting a panel of Gran Prix Formula One drivers, which provides a unique setting to single out the data requirements needed to credibly estimate the effect of age on productivity. Results robust to the inclusion of worker, firm and match effects show that the age-productivity link has an inverted U-shape profile with a peak at the age of 30-32. The use of repeated cross-sections of individuals also produces consistent results provided that cohort effects are properly accounted for. Relying on team-average measures of productivity makes instead inference harder.