Dynamic factor model with infinite‐dimensional factor space: Forecasting

The paper compares the pseudo real‐time forecasting performance of three dynamic factor models: (i) the standard principal component model introduced by Stock and Watson in 2002; (ii) the model based on generalized principal components, introduced by Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin in 2005; (iii) the model recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Zaffaroni in 2015. We employ a large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the US economy, which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery (an update of the so‐called Stock and Watson dataset). Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that model (iii) significantly outperforms models (i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both industrial production and inflation, and that model (iii) is also the best method for inflation over the full sample. However, model (iii) is outperformed by models (ii) and (i) over the full sample for industrial production.     

RARE SHOCKS,GREAT RECESSIONS

We estimate a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t‐distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (American Economic Review 2007; 97 : 586–606) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964–2011 period indicate that (i) the Student's t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low‐frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks, and (ii)) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive US business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample. We also show that inference about low‐frequency changes in volatility—and, in particular, inference about the magnitude of Great Moderation—is different once we allow for fat tails. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve

We use Bayesian methods to estimate changes in US post‐war monetary policy in the Smets and Wouters model. We perform the estimations by allowing for a break in monetary policy at the time of Volcker's appointment as chairman. This enables us to capture changes in the monetary policy regime introduced by Volcker during the Volcker–Greenspan period. We find support for the assumption that monetary policy in the Volcker–Greenspan period performed optimally under commitment. Our estimation strategy allows us to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve in the Volcker–Greenspan period, where the main objective of policy appears to be inflation, followed by interest rate stabilization, output growth and interest rate smoothing. We find that the Great Moderation of output growth is explained by a combination of two factors: the decrease in the volatility of the structural shocks and the improved monetary policy conduct. Inflation Stabilization, however, is mainly due to the change in monetary policy that took place at the beginning of Volcker's mandate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages

We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to the US economy based on a time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model. We find that the contribution of financial shocks to gross domestic product growth fluctuates from about 20% in normal times to more than 50% during the Great Recession. The Great Recession and the subsequent weak recovery can largely be traced back to negative housing shocks. Housing shocks have become more important for the real economy since the early 2000s, and negative housing shocks are more important than positive ones. Unexpected increases in credit spreads have not been deflationary recently. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Great recession,slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the subsequent jobless recovery is explained by the ZLB effect. We estimate a fraction of Non-Ricardian households which is close to 50%, and obtain comparatively large fiscal multipliers. However we cannot detect a significant contribution of fiscal policies in stabilizing the US economy. For instance, the 2007–2009 large increase in expenditure-to-GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession.     

The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on UK Prices: What We Can Learn from the CPI Microdata1

This paper takes the locally collected price quotes used to construct the CPI index in the UK for the period 1996–2013 and explores the impact of the Great Recession (2008-9) on the pricing behaviour of firms. We develop a time series framework which captures the link between macroeconomic variables and the behaviour of prices in terms of the frequency of price change, the dispersion of price levels and the size, dispersion and kurtosis of price-growth. We find strong evidence for inflation having an effect, but not output. The change in the behaviour of prices during the Great Recession is largely explained by the changes in inflation and VAT. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the inflation effect is sufficiently small that it need not influence monetary policy.     

The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on UK Prices: What We Can Learn from the CPI Microdata1

This paper takes the locally collected price quotes used to construct the CPI index in the UK for the period 1996–2013 and explores the impact of the Great Recession (2008‐9) on the pricing behaviour of firms. We develop a time series framework which captures the link between macroeconomic variables and the behaviour of prices in terms of the frequency of price change, the dispersion of price levels and the size, dispersion and kurtosis of price‐growth. We find strong evidence for inflation having an effect, but not output. The change in the behaviour of prices during the Great Recession is largely explained by the changes in inflation and VAT. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the inflation effect is sufficiently small that it need not influence monetary policy.     

Competitive moment matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian model

The paper considers two rival models referring to the new macroeconomic consensus: a standard three-equation model of the New-Keynesian variety versus dynamic adjustments of a business and an inflation climate in an ‘Old-Keynesian’ tradition. Over the two subperiods of the Great Inflation and Great Moderation, both of them are estimated by the method of simulated moments. An innovative feature is here that the moments do not only include the autocovariances up to eight lags of quarterly output, inflation and the interest rate, but optionally also a measure of the raggedness of the three variables. In short, the performance of the Old-Keynesian model is very satisfactory and similar to the New-Keynesian model, or even better. In particular, the Old-Keynesian model is better suited to match the new moments without deteriorating the original second moments too much.     

Impact of the Great Recession on unemployed and NEET individuals’ labour market transitions in Ireland

The impact that the Great Recession has had on countries’ labour markets has been well documented. In Ireland, the contraction in economic activity that took place resulted in the country's overall unemployment rate increasing from 4.6% in 2006 to 15% in 2012. The country's youth unemployment rate rose from 9.9% to 33% over the same time period, while the proportion of NEETs increased from 10.1% in 2006 to 18.7% in 2012. Policymakers are aware of the unemployment rates of young and prime-aged people as well as the NEETs rate. However, little is known about these groups’ profiles, whether their profiles have changed since the recession and also their labour market transition patterns pre and post the Great Recession. Given the importance of this information in the design of effective activation measures to assist unemployed and NEET individuals, this paper examines each of these issues in turn. Overall, the study found for all three groups examined that the rate of transition to employment fell dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The analysis showed that the drop in the groups’ transition rates was not due to changes in the underlying sub-group population structures but to changes in the external environment that resulted in the impact of possessing certain characteristics changing over the recession. For example, education and nationality have become more important in finding a job in Ireland over the course of the recession, while there has been a fall in the scarring impact of unemployment durations.     

Exact likelihood computation for nonlinear DSGE models with heteroskedastic innovations

Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macroeconomists towards models where shock processes are not (log-)normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime shifts. We first show that, up to a second-order approximation using perturbation methods, regime switching in the variances has an impact only on the intercept coefficients of the decision rules. We then demonstrate how to derive the exact model likelihood for the second-order approximation of the solution when there are as many shocks as observable variables. We illustrate the applicability of the proposed solution and estimation methods in the case of a small DSGE model.     

Testing the Empirical Relevance of the ‘Saving for a Rainy Day’ Hypothesis in US Metro Areas

The joint implication of the consumption Euler equation and cointegration between income and consumption is that savings predict future income declines, the ‘saving for a rainy day’ hypothesis. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers, and it holds under the null that the permanent income hypothesis is true. We find little support for this hypothesis using time series data for the 100 largest US Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the period 1980q1–2015q4. Our approach is to test for cointegration and weak exogeneity between income and consumption, and by exploring the direction of Granger causality between the two time series. We find that income more often predicts consumption and saving than the converse. We also give evidence that house price changes played a role in US income and consumption dynamics, before, during and after the Great Recession.     

How beneficial was the Great Moderation after all?

This paper computes the welfare effect of the Great Moderation, using a representative-agent consumption-based asset pricing model. The Great Moderation is modeled according to the data properties of consumption and dividend growth rates, which display a reduction of their innovation-volatility and increased persistence: the latter is a characteristic that has been largely unaddressed in the literature. The theoretical model (a long-run risk model) is calibrated to match average asset pricing variables, as well as consumption and dividend dynamics before and during the Great Moderation. The model captures the relevant features of the Great Moderation (decreased variance, increased persistence, asset prices). It predicts only a modest welfare gain from Great Moderation (0.38 percent in consumption equivalent), due mainly to the utility cost of a late uncertainty resolution.     

Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three-equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation based on conventional priors to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match a finite set of the model-generated second moments of inflation, output and the interest rate to their empirical counterparts. It is found that in the Great Inflation (GI) period—though not quite in the Great Moderation (GM)—the two estimations imply a significantly different covariance structure. Regarding the parameters, special emphasis is placed on the degree of backward-looking behaviour in the Phillips curve. While, in line with much of the literature, it plays a minor role in the Bayesian estimations, MM yields values of the price indexation parameter close to or even at its maximal value of unity. For both GI and GM, these results are worth noticing since in (strong or, respectively, weak) contrast to the Bayesian parameters, the covariance matching thus achieved appears rather satisfactory.     

What drives fluctuations in exchange rate growth in emerging markets – A multi-level dynamic factor approach

Historically, exchange rates in many emerging economies have been volatile. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model to investigate the driving forces behind these fluctuations in exchange rate growth and find that in recent years, especially since the Great Recession, the common (world) factor has become more important. We also find that, since 2009, US monetary policy and Chinese economic growth have had much greater effects on emerging market exchange rate growth fluctuations. The historical decomposition indicates that 18.8% and 23% of the variations in the world factor after 2009 can be explained by US monetary policy shock and Chinese industrial production shock, respectively.     

Measuring the natural rate of interest: A note on transitory shocks

We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the US economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the literature.     

How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates

This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, I propose adjusting hours worked per capita used to estimate such models accordingly to enhance the consistency between the data and the model. Without this adjustment, low‐frequency shifts in hours lead to unreasonable trends in the output gap, caused by the close link between hours and the output gap in such models. The retirement wave of baby boomers, for example, lowers US aggregate hours per capita, which leads to erroneous permanently negative output gap estimates following the Great Recession. After correcting hours for changes in the age composition, the estimated output gap closes gradually instead following the years after the Great Recession.     

Would the Bundesbank have prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank—which is near-universally credited for sparing West Germany the Great Inflation—would also not have been able to prevent the Great Inflation in the United States.The implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary note on taking the outcome of SVAR-based policy counterfactuals at face value, and raises questions on the reliability of such exercises.     

Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from A Robust Test

We propose a novel identification‐robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot‐driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We invert a likelihood ratio test for the cross‐equation restrictions (CER) that the New Keynesian system places on its reduced‐form solution under determinacy. If the CER are not rejected, sunspot‐driven expectations can be ruled out from the model equilibrium and we accept the structural model. Otherwise, we move to a second‐step and invert an Anderson and Rubin‐type test for the orthogonality restrictions (OR) implied by the system of structural Euler equations. The hypothesis of indeterminacy and the structural model are accepted if the OR are not rejected. We investigate the finite‐sample performance of the suggested identification‐robust two‐step testing strategy by some Monte Carlo experiments and then apply it to a New Keynesian AD/AS model estimated with actual US data. In spite of some evidence of weak identification as for the ‘Great Moderation’ period, our results offer formal support to the hypothesis of a switch from indeterminacy to a scenario consistent with uniqueness occurring in the late 1970s. Our identification‐robust full‐information confidence set for the structural parameters computed on the ‘Great Moderation’ regime turns out to be more precise than the intervals previously reported in the literature through ‘limited‐information’ methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model: An application to the German business cycle

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany, preselected from a broader set using the elastic net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to detect relatively mild recessions reliably when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to distinguish normal and severe recessions clearly, so that the model identifies all business cycle turning points in our sample reliably. In a real-time exercise, the model detects recessions in a timely manner. Combining the estimated factor and the recession probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1, and a correct prediction of the timing of the Great Recession and its recovery one quarter in advance.     

Antecedents of concession bargaining in the Great Recession: evidence from Ireland

Concession or ‘give back’ bargaining involves firms seeking changes in pay and conditions of employment from trade unions in return for pledges of enhanced job security and sometimes other forms of reciprocation. Several distinct modes of concession bargaining are distinguishable in the literature, and three modes of concession bargaining have been identified in Ireland during the Great Recession: integrative, distributive and minimal engagement. Deploying qualitatively informed quantitative data on the conduct of collective bargaining during the Great Recession, this article examines a series of antecedent influences on the choices firms make in conducting concession bargaining with unions.