PROBLEMS OF MEASURING CAPITAL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The general problems of distinguishing between theoretical concepts and practical measures concerning capital are considered and the difference between various stock and flow measures of capital and their respective uses is defined. The qualifications and limitations to these measures in the interpretation of output changes are also discussed. Attention is concentrated on the initial, basic problem of how to measure gross capital stock and the special difficulties involved in using the perpetual inventory simulation method and census procedures in less developed countries to derive such estimates are broadly defined. Some of the special problems encountered in an attempt to undertake an inventory of industrial capital assets in Lesotho are also referred to and the paper concludes by expressing the view that there are at present far more important issues demanding higher statistical priority in less developed countries than the evaluation of capital stocks.     

ESTIMATION OF THE STOCK OF CAPITAL IN SPAIN

The paper presents the methodology and results of the estimation of the endowments of capital in the Spanish economy. It distinguishes between endowments of public capital and private capital. The series corresponding to the public sector cover the period 1955–97 and consider seven categories (or functions). The estimates are disaggregated by 17 regions and 50 provinces. The level of disaggregation is regional and provincial (NUTS2 and NUTS3 in European terminology). The private capital series cover the period 1964–97 and consider 17 sectors of production, with disaggregation at regional level. The information refers to two variables: gross formation of fixed capital (in current and constant pesetas) and capital stock in constant pesetas (base year 1990).     

Private Sector Wealth: Quarterly Estimates for use in an Aggregate Model*

The paper presents some estimates of private-sector wealth in Australia for the 1958-75 period. Basically, we have attempted to consolidate the balance sheets of all sectors, except the government and the foreign sector. Different procedures have been used for the various components of private-sector wealth and estimates are presented for real assets of the household sector (dwellings, motor vehicles and consumer durables), for fixed assets and inventories of the business sector, and for government liabilities to the private sector. Broadly, the data indicate that over the 1958-75 period, private wealth grew faster than population but slower than output and business capital stock. Dwellings and motor vehicles were the fastest growing components of private wealth. Reflecting the rise in the share of foreign claims on businesses in Australia, the Australian claims on business assets increased at a slower rate than the increase in the business-capital stock.     

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE STOCK OF FIXED CAPITAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset. Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it. The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.     

CAPITAL MAINTENANCE AND THE MEASUREMENT OF CORPORATE INCOME

This paper considers the impact upon measures of corporate income of a number of concepts of the maintenance of the existing capital of an incorporated trading enterprise. A main distinction is drawn between the maintenance of all the assets employed in trading and the maintenance of the net assets attributable to the owners. Measures of income and of rates of return to capital depend on whether all the assets, or only the net assets attributable to the owners, are being considered. There are three sections of the paper after an introduction. Section 2 is conceptual and section 3 illustrates the concepts, with figures for U.K. manufacturing industry in 1975 to 1977, in which the figures in company balance sheets are adjusted from book values to estimated replacement cost, and estimates are made of depreciation at replacement cost and of the consumption of stock (inventories) at replacement cost. These figures follow the concept of maintaining physical assests. I have added calculations which extend the concept of capital maintenance to all operating or trading assets, including monetary working capital; and which then calculate the amounts necessary to maintain the assets attributable to the owners of a business. The three main methods are: to apply a gearing adjustment to abate the additional capital maintenance provisions for operating assets (which are realized revaluations by reference to their original cost); to take into income additionally the geared (or debt financed) portion of unrealized revaluations; and-what is conceptually much the same thing-to count as the charge for debt only real interest (which may be negative) rather than nominal interest. Section 4 considers some problems of aggregation, particularly the derivation of aggregates for the sectors of the economy, when based on figures for individual enterprises using the various approaches to capital maintenance.     

DEPRECIATION, OBSOLESCENCE, AND THE MEASUREMENT OF THE AGGREGATE CAPITAL STOCK OF THE UNITED STATES 1900–1962

This paper is concerned with the sensitivity of estimates of the aggregate capital stock of the United States to the statistician's choice of depreciation method. The usual depreciation charge can be shown to include allowances both for physical deterioration and for obsolescence. If one interprets the gross stock as the stock of surviving assets, then the various net stocks defined by depreciation accounting may be interpreted as a revaluation of these assets by means of an index of embodied technical change. Estimates of the United States capital stock were generated under eight sets of assumptions. These estimates are compared with respect to level, trend, and implications for other aggregate statistical indicators. The conclusion is reached that the assumptions which define a country's stock of tangible capital are of considerably greater importance than has often been supposed.     

China’s Capital Stock Series by Region and Sector

The lack of capital stock statistics for empirical research of the Chinese economy has for a long time been one of the major impediments in the profession. Professor Gregory Chow is one of the pioneers who attempted to deal with this matter. His seminal paper on China’s capital formation and economic growth was published in 1993 (Chow, 1993). Since then many authors have estimated their own capital stock data series. However, most authors have focused on investigations at the national level and their findings are not without controversies. In particular, few studies have provided estimates of capital stock for China’s regional economies. This paper adds to the existing literature in several ways. First, it presents a critical review of the methods and findings in the existing literature. Second, it proposes an alternative approach to estimate China’s capital stock series by region as well as across three economic sectors (agriculture, industry and services). Finally, preliminary analyses of the derived capital stock statistics are conducted to examine growth, disparity and convergence in China’s regional economies.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF CAPITAL THROUGH A FIXED ASSET ACCOUNTING SIMULATION MODEL (FAASM)

In this article the author describes a method of estimating the capital stock of the corporate sector which is being developed at Statistics Canada. The method uses a "Fixed Asset Accounting Simulation Model" or FAASM. FAASM provides estimates of the capital stock by inferring the actual service lives of fixed assets, and using these with price indexes to revalue assets on a constant price basis. FAASM is thus an alternative to the widely used Perpetual Inventory Method. By also inferring accounting lives using the depreciation accounts, it has other important outputs. These latter get only passing mention here. Since FAASM exploits the available data in a comprehensive, systematic way, its service life and capital stock estimates may eventually, after system development and improvement in operation, approach the limits of attainable accuracy.     

STOCKS AND DEPRECIATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A PRESENT-VALUE PERSPECTIVE

Responding to a perceived growing interest in human wealth estimates, this paper offers a framework for measuring the aggregate stock of human capital and then implements the procedure for the United States male population age 14 to 75. Unlike previous estimates of human wealth that are based upon historical or resource costs, these estimates measure the capital stock as the discounted resent-value of expected lifetime returns. In the estimation, returns are equated with earnings data from the 1970 U.S. Census 15 percent Public Use Sample for out-of-school males, adjusted for employment and survival probabilities, adjusted for an assumed exogenous growth in future earnings, and discounted at 7.5 percent.
We provide cross-sectional estimates of individual stocks of human capital by age and educational attainment, as well as expected lifetime wealth profiles for individuals by level of education. These individual profiles can be used to obtain direct estimates of age-specific depreciation which suggest human capital is subject to significant and prolonged appreciation before nearly straight-line depreciation begins around middle age. This finding is all the more significant since resource-cost estimates of human capital which must assume a depreciation pattern to obtain stocks have always imposed a much faster rate much sooner.
Finally, an aggregate estimate of the stock of human capital for all males is supplied and its sensitivity to the choice of the discount rate, tax laws, and expected exogenous growth is analyzed. This seemingly-conservative stock estimate is then compared to a much lower resource-cost estimate offered recently by John Kendrick. A discount rate over 20 percent would be needed to equate the two measures. In trying to reconcile the two figures, we raise some new questions about the validity of both approaches for human capital accounting.     

A Short‐Cut Method of Estimating Capital Stocks: When Can It be Used and How Well Does It Work?

Relatively few countries currently publish estimates of capital stocks because of the difficulty of applying the Perpetual Inventory Method. A short‐cut method which we term the Steady Growth Model (SGM) can produce plausible capital stock estimates provided certain conditions are met. Starting with a database covering 146 countries we conclude that the SGM can legitimately be used to calculate capital stocks for 53 of them. The 53 include equal numbers of high‐income and low‐income countries. The SGM requires only data on gross fixed capital formation for the base year, information about past growth rates of real GFCF, and assumptions about rates of depreciation. Despite its apparent simplicity, we show that our SGM stock estimates compare well with official stock estimates generated by the PIM. Other tests on capital–output ratios and capital‐stocks per head confirm the plausibility of stock estimates generated by SGM.     

THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING1

It is argued that the conventions of an accounting system, such as the S.N.A., are a matter of convenience. The treatment of education as a current expenditure, instead of as a form of capital formation, derives from the Keynesian system, and is not appropriate for dynamic problems of developing countries, where weaknesses in education are often the main “bottleneck” in the process of development. In such countries, expenditure on education clearly yields its benefits mainly in the longer run. To treat this as a consumption item biases policy in the direction of using financial resources for fixed capital rather than human investment, and may cause aid agencies to penalize countries which expand their educational systems. A similar problem arises on other expenditures such as health, but the case for treating them as investment is not so strong. To treat educational expenditure as part of capital formation logically requires two major changes. First education needs to be removed from private and public consumption, and for this purpose a fairly broad definition of what is education should be used. Secondly, the stock of educational capital should be valued. The valuation problems are, however, severe. Variations in cost components make historic cost of little value as a yardstick, and calculations of future returns are fraught with difficulties. Using replacement costs, which seems the best method, involves the construction of education profiles in physical terms which can then be valued by present or by standardised costs. The depreciation of human capital through mortality and retirement can be allowed for by applying national average rates to these physical profiles. Switching educational expenditure from current to capital accounts involves no serious practical problem. However, although there should logically be an allowance for depreciation on human capital, this is not recommended; single monetary measures of educational stock are not very meaningful, and this would involve changing the definition of “net” aggregates. Development of statistics of educational stocks and flows in physical terms—the beginnings of “demographic accounting” fully integrated with the rest of national accounting—is strongly advocated.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

The Measurement of Capital: Retrieving Initial Values from Panel Data

A common problem with micro‐level analysis is that capital stock data is missing. Typically, a feasible measure of capital is calculated by accumulating investment flows from an initial value of the capital stock. As the time dimension of most disaggregated data is rather short, the choice of this initial value can have significant effects on the resulting capital estimates. Most empirical studies impute the initial value using a single arbitrary proxy. In this paper, we propose a panel data framework that assigns weighting coefficients to multiple proxy variables. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo experiments to test the performance of the proposed method and apply the method to a U.S. manufacturing dataset. The results suggest that our method improves the approximation of the capital stock and thus in turn reduces the bias in the production function estimation.     

Estimates of China capital input index by industries (1981–2000)

The purpose of this paper is to report estimates of capital input index classified by industries in China from 1981 to 2000. We estimate capital stock based on the perpetual inventory method, and then estimate the flow of capital service and capital service price consistently with the capital compensation in input-output table. In our study, we discuss various assumptions and adjustments made on the data and estimation implementation.      

人力资本与经济增长:对中国的实证分析

本文利用北卡罗来那大学Chapel Hill分校和中国预防医学会营养与食品卫生研究所的调查数据，估计出1990年～2000年我国的工资方程和人力资本增长率。结合该时期经济增长，资本存量和劳动投入数据，我估算出中国20世纪90年代的全要素生产率，以及各因素对经济增长的贡献。此外，本文还详细讨论了统计年鉴中产出、资本和劳动数据存在的问题，在对以往的研究进行详细比较的基础上选择了适当的纠正方法。     

Standardised capital stock estimates in Latin America: a 1950-94 update

Capital stock estimates are used extensively in many areas ofeconomic research, in spite of both theoretical and practicaldifficulties with respect to their use, estimation and meaning.The lack of comparable capital stock estimates in Latin Americahas hindered analysis of economic development in the regionand comparisons with other developed and developing countries.Standardised gross and net fixed capital stock estimates forthe 1950-94 period are presented for seven Latin American countries:Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Venezuela.The methodology employed is the 'perpetual inventory method'which estimates capital stocks as a weighted sum of past investmentflows. Several methodological issues are discussed, especiallydepreciation and service life estimation. Capital stocks havebeen disaggregated in machinery and equipment, non-residentialand residential structures with services lives of 15, 40 and50 years respectively.     

中国资本存量的再估算和分解

从本文研究结果来看,投资带来的资本存量快速增加是中国快速发展的重要原因,但是资本存量并没有传统研究估算的那么高,另外资本效能下降也是中国一个需要关注的现象。与传统研究不同,本文发现中国折旧变化并不是一个直线,而是分阶段逐步上升的,研究结果比较符合中国作为新兴市场国家的实际。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF U.S. REAL CAPITAL INPUT, 1929–1967

The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for the measurement of real capital input. These methods are based on perpetual inventory estimates of capital stock and corresponding estimates of capital service prices. Stocks and service prices are adjusted for relative utilization of capital. The resulting estimates represent a separation of income from capital into price and quantity components. Estimates of capital input in current and constant prices are constructed for corporate business, non-corporate business, and households and non-profit institutions in the United States for the period 1929–1967. These estimates are prepared in a form suitable for integration into the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.