NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed. The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect). The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects-production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered-from a theoretical point of view-as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side. In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined. In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.     

THE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS AND ESTIMATES FOR THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY IN THE PERIOD 1964 TO 19801

Household production as well as other informal economic activities have received scant attention in economic science. In the last decade the view has been taken that there has been a big shift from formal to informal production. In order to examine this trend this article presents estimates for the size of household production for the Federal Republic of Germany which are based on time-budget data collected from 1964 to 1980. To show the sensitivity of the results two different estimating methods the Opportunity Cost Method and the Market Cost Method, are used. Since productivity growth took place not only in the formal economy but also in household production, estimates will be presented which take productivity growth explicitly into account. The article concludes with a comparison of estimates for other countries.     

中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计

KLEMS 项目的目的是在北美,欧洲和亚洲进行生产率的多国比较。本文讨论了 KLEMS 研究中估计资本存量的基本方法一永续盘存法及其经济含义。在这个研究中,根据中国的现有数据,应用永续盘存法估计了1985—1995年间,中国制造业分部门的资本存量。本文详细地分析了估计中所使用的数据,并讨论了所使用的假设与必要的数据调整,以及这些假设与数据调整所可能带来的估计中的误差。     

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE STOCK OF FIXED CAPITAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset. Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it. The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.     

MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL FACTOR INPUT, TECHNICAL CHANGE AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY 1958–1968

This paper deals with some results of an extended investigation which was carried out by the German Institute of Economic Research, Berlin, and the Ifo-Institute, Munich, and financed by the Stiftung Volkswagenwerk. For 29 sectors of manufacturing Cobb-Douglas production functions have been calculated, based on quarterly figures 1958–1968 of value added, input of hours worked, input of utilized capital stock (net of scrappage), and of potential value added, potential labor input and total capital stock. The income distribution is used as production elasticities. For each of the 29 sectors 12 time series of quarterly indices of total factor input and technical change have been computed, using utilized data (variation 1-6) and capacity data (variation 7-12). Two different time series of α are used, taking quarterly interpolated data (variation 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) and the geometric mean 1958–1968 (variation 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12). Moreover three different parameters of homogeneity are introduced, taking r= 1 (variation 1, 2, 7, 8), r= 1.1 (variation 3, 4, 9, 10) and r= 1.25 (variation 5, 6, 11, 12). Seven of the 29 sectors show a very high sensitivity of the rate of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a rather high sensitivity. Ten of the 29 sectors show a rather small sensitivity of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a very small or even negative sensitivity, i.e. an increasing r creates an increasing technical change. These results can be explained by taking account of the fact that total factor input in many branches increased very slowly or even decreased (labor input alone decreased in nearly all branches). A hierarchy of technical change has been calculated; this hierarchy is difficult to explain, because fast growing industries as well as industries with a small or a negative growth rate of output rank in both the leading and the last group of technical change. Very high rates of output result in high rates of technical change (chemicals, mineral oil refining, plastics manufactures), but some industries with a rather small growth of output (shipbuilding, fine ceramics, steel drawing, and cold rolling mills) show a high rate of technical change too.     

ESTIMATION OF THE STOCK OF CAPITAL IN SPAIN

The paper presents the methodology and results of the estimation of the endowments of capital in the Spanish economy. It distinguishes between endowments of public capital and private capital. The series corresponding to the public sector cover the period 1955–97 and consider seven categories (or functions). The estimates are disaggregated by 17 regions and 50 provinces. The level of disaggregation is regional and provincial (NUTS2 and NUTS3 in European terminology). The private capital series cover the period 1964–97 and consider 17 sectors of production, with disaggregation at regional level. The information refers to two variables: gross formation of fixed capital (in current and constant pesetas) and capital stock in constant pesetas (base year 1990).     

INFLATION ACCOUNTING FOR THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY RESULTS USING DIFFERENT DEFLATOR PRICE INDICES

The purpose of inflation accounting as proposed by Jack Hibbert¹ is to show the changes in purchasing power of the assets and liabilities by sectors resulting from general price movements. This paper shows the results of inflation accounting for the Federal Republic of Germany on the basis of complete balance sheets for the sectors "Private households,""Enterprises,""General government" and "Rest of the world" in 1980. It is evident that the results of inflation accounting depend to a high degree on the kind of price index which is used as an indicator of the changes in the purchasing power of money in general. The price index for inflation accounting should in general be selected according to the aim of the analysis. On the other hand, however, the validity of the results of inflation accounting depends on and is limited by the price index chosen for that purpose. The figures presented also show that the results of inflation accounting depend to a high degree on whether estimates of the value of tangible assets are included or not. This holds for reproducible tangible assets as well as for land.     

MEASURING THE VALUE OF THE CAPITAL STOCK BY DIRECT OBSERVATION

In the Netherlands the Central Bureau of Statistics (C.B.S.) carried out two experimental investigations into the possibility of observing the actual value of the capital stock by means of enquiries at enterprises.
This article reports on the investigation into the cigar-industry. The intention is to carry out enquiries in one branch of industry after another. In due course (for instance after 10 years) it will again be the turn of the first branch of industry and so on. There are also branches of industry which have a fair amount of information regarding capital assets available at their disposal, so that enquiries are not necessary. In the long run the method described will supply statistical data on the value of the capital stock for all branches of industry together.
The gross actual value at current and constant prices is calculated for the cigar-industry, broken down by type and vintage. The enquiry was carried out in two steps. Questionnaires were not sent to the enterprises but they were visited in order that C.B.S. staff could derive the data required from the accounts available. Within the C.B.S. this information was processed, C.B.S. staff making estimates for lacking data. It may be concluded that this method of enquiry for the capital stock is difficult but useful. The results of the enquiry are comparable throughout, the valuation having been carried out in the same way for all enterprises and care having been taken that in each enterprise all means of production were asked for.
In the future this new technique of enquiry will provide good detailed information on the capital stock in the Netherlands.     

ECONOMIC BURDENS OF MARITAL DISRUPTIONS: A COMPARISON OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel are used to show that women and children are worse off following a marital split than are men in both the United States and Germany. The size of the difference is sensitive to the equivalence scale used, but despite its far more extensive tax and transfer system the disparate impact of divorce or separation on women and children persisted in Germany at a level at least as high as in the United States.     

SIZE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR,ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY: DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY*

The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.     

ESTIMATES OF THE AGGREGATE QUARTERLY CAPITAL STOCK FOR THE POST-WAR U.S. ECONOMY

We construct quarterly aggregate gross and net capital stock series for the post-war U.S. economy using annual capital stock, capital depreciation, and capital discard figures along with quarterly investment series. We construct nominal and real measures of all three categories in the aggregate capital stock: consumer durable goods, producer durable goods, and business structures. In constructing the nominal series we take into account the changes in capital goods' prices. The series are constructed using four different methods. Using time- and frequency-domain techniques, we compare the constructed series and characterize their short-run, business cycle, and long-run cyclical properties. We find that the constructed series exhibit very different cyclical and shock persistence dynamics. Practial implications are discussed.