The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit

This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow surges on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow surge the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2 percentage points. The effect is reversed in the medium-term with the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased by almost 4 percentage points seven years after the initial surge. The paper also finds that the effect is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode (debt vs. portfolio equity vs. FDI), with large capital inflows that are debt-driven having the largest effect. The results of the paper also suggest that the short-term effect of capital inflow surges on domestic credit depends on countries’ macroeconomic policy stances. In particular, it is found that this effect is lower in countries with higher real exchange rate flexibility and fiscal policy counter-cyclicality.     

The role of the elasticity of substitution in economic growth: A cross-country investigation

Although the importance of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor (σ) has long been recognized in several branches of economics, it has not received enough attention in the growth literature. de La Grandville (1989) showed theoretically that at any stage of an economy's development, the growth rate of income per capita is increasing with σ. The higher is σ, the greater the similarity between capital and labor in the production function, and thus diminishing returns set in very slowly. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that tests the hypothesis that growth rate is increasing with the value of σ at the cross-country level. We estimate σ for 90 countries from direct estimation of the normalized CES production function and then include these estimators as an explanatory variable in cross-country growth regression. We investigate the sign and significance of the coefficient of σ conditioning on country characteristics, initial conditions, and a set of policy variables. After accounting for endogeneity and the fact that σ is a “generated” regressor, we find strong support for the hypothesis. The result is robust to both Leamer's (1983) extreme value analysis and Bayesian model averaging. About a fifth to a quarter of the growth rate differential between East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can be explained by σ alone.     

The winners and losers of tax reform: An assessment under financial integration

I quantify the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of the unilateral elimination of the capital income tax in a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model with progressive labor income taxes. Home, by implementing the reform, induces government responses where labor income is taxed in Home and mostly subsidized in Foreign. In addition, post-reform price dynamics reduce Home’s wealth and suppress households’ ability to do consumption smoothing, with negative effects on the majority—particularly on the poor. In turn, Foreign accumulates wealth, and price movements work particularly in favor of the poor. As a result, a large majority in Home prefers the status quo whereas Foreign supports the reform unanimously. These findings are robust to alternative scenarios where (i) the borrowing constraints are relaxed, (ii) both countries jointly eliminate capital income taxes, (iii) foreign interest income is taxed, and (iv) Home capital income tax is reduced from 40% to 35%.     

Monotonicity and continuity of the critical capital stock in the Dechert–Nishimura model

We show that the critical capital stock of the Dechert and Nishimura (1983) model is a decreasing and continuous function of the discount factor. We also show that the critical capital stock merges with a nonzero steady state as the discount factor decreases to a certain boundary value, and that the critical capital stock converges to the minimum sustainable capital stock as the discount factor increases to another boundary value.     

Training,adverse selection and appropriate technology: Development and growth in a small open economy

Recent diffusion models cannot explain why the success of technology diffusion depends so critically on developing countries’ human capital levels. This paper examines three main issues. First, we endogenize both appropriate technologies and human capital formation. Second, we refine the human capital accumulation process by introducing uncertainty about worker quality and training efficiency. Finally, we allow for international diffusion of technology as a function of the host country’s endogenous ability to absorb technological spillovers. The resulting model is one of uneven growth where trade amplifies worker quality problems in laggard countries. In contrast, technology spillovers are shown to generate additional incentives to accumulate human capital in the laggard country, since this allows for faster adoption and diffusion of foreign technology in the future.     

Abnormal research and development investments and stock returns

We investigate the relation between abnormal research and development (R&D) investments change and expected stock returns. We provide evidence that firms that abnormally increase their R&D investments (RDI) earn higher returns in comparison to the market portfolio. Specifically, our findings document an economically significant annual positive abnormal RDI returns that ranges from 3.2% to 11.5%. These findings are robust to well-established risk factors in the literature and suggest that the abnormal increases in RDI impacts stock returns.     

Fluctuating uncertainty and flexibility value

A simple model of recurrent fluctuating uncertainty with two types of investment assets, commitment and flexible, where fluctuating uncertainty is defined as changes between high and low confidence regimes, is constructed. By assuming risk neutrality, I find analytically a formula for flexibility value that is defined as the difference between the expected return to the commitment asset and the expected return to the flexible asset. This flexibility value is positive in the low confidence regime because of a positive attribute of the flexibility asset that is the option to utilize new information later. The relation between flexibility value and other parameters of the model is also considered. Flexibility value increases as the information an individual obtains in the high confidence regime increases or the discounting factor of the individual increases. Finally, flexibility value can increase even if, ceteris paribus, the return to the commitment asset increases.     

Remaining useful life in theory and practice

Remaining useful life (RUL) is nowadays in fashion, both in theory and applications. Engineers use it mostly when they have to decide whether to do maintenance, or to delay it, due to production requirements. Most often, it is assumed that in later life of an equipment (in wear-out period), the hazard function is increasing, and then the expected RUL, μ(t), is decreasing. We noticed that the standard deviation of RUL, σ(t), is also decreasing, which was expected and known, but that the ratio σ(t)/μ(t) is also increasing, which was a surprise. Initiated by this observation, we have proved that under some general conditions, which include Weibull distribution with shape parameter  > 1, this is indeed the case. Even more, we have proved that the limiting distribution of standardized RUL is exponential, so that the variability of RUL is relatively large. The role of condition monitoring in the evaluation of RUL is discussed. Various models for RUL depending on covariates are considered.     

The cost implications of waste reduction: factor demand, competitiveness and policy implications

Manufacturing produces both good and “bad” outputs, such as waste, which have negative environmental effects. Economic (e.g., tax) and non-economic (e.g., reputation) incentives encourage firms to reduce waste. However, such practices are costly because decreases in output produced or increases in inputs used may accompany waste reduction. We employ a cost function approach to evaluate patterns of output and waste production and capital, labor, and materials use, for UK manufacturing plants. We find that costs of waste reduction generally imply increasing materials use and capital and labor input saving, but vary by county, region, and industry.

Polarization of the worldwide distribution of productivity

We employ data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to construct the world production frontier, which is in turn used to decompose (labor) productivity growth into components attributable to technological change (shift of the production frontier), efficiency change (movements toward or away from the frontier), physical capital deepening, and human capital accumulation over the 1965–2007 period. Using this decomposition, we provide new findings on the causes of polarization (the emergence of bimodality) and divergence (increased variance) of the world productivity distribution. First, unlike earlier studies, we find that efficiency change is the unique driver of the emergence of a second (higher) mode. Second, while earlier studies attributed the overall change in the distribution exclusively to physical capital accumulation, we find that technological change and human capital accumulation are also significant factors explaining this change in the distribution (most notably the emergence of a long right-hand tail). Robustness exercises indicate that these revisions of earlier findings are attributable to the addition of (more recent) years and a much greater number of countries included in our sample. We also check to see whether our results are changed by a correction for the downward bias in the DEA construction of the frontier, concluding that these corrections affect none of our major findings (essentially because the level correction roughly washes out in changes.)     

The effect of uncertainty and instability on dynamic economic models with an application to cournot oligopoly

Consider a dynamic discrete-time economic model in which a state-dependent payoff is earned during each period. We give conditions which ensure that a mean preserving increase in the riskiness of the model's parameters increases (or decreases) the expected payoff earned during n periods.     

Capital depreciation and the underdetermination of rate of return: A unifying perspective

This paper shows that the notion of rate of return is best understood through the lens of the average-internal-rate-of-return (AIRR) model, first introduced in Magni (2010a). It is an NPV-consistent approach based on a coherent definition of rate of return and on the notion of Chisini mean, it is capable of solving the conundrums originated by the rate-of-return notion and represents a unifying theoretical paradigm under which every existing measure of wealth creation can be subsumed. We show that a rate of return is underdetermined by the project’s cash-flow stream; in particular, a unique return function (not a unique rate of return) exists for every project which maps depreciation classes into rates of return. The various shapes a rate of return can take on (internal rate of return, average accounting rate of return, modified internal rate of return, etc.) derive from the (implicit or explicit) selection of different depreciation patterns. To single out the appropriate rate of return for a project, auxiliary assumptions are needed regarding the project’s capital depreciation. This involves value judgment. On one side, this finding opens terrain for a capital valuation theory yet to be developed; on the other side, it triggers the creation of a toolkit of domain-specific and purpose-specific metrics that can be used, jointly or in isolation, for analyzing the economic profitability of a given project. We also show that the AIRR perspective has a high explanatory power that enables connecting seemingly unrelated notions and linking various disciplines such as economics, finance, and accounting. Some guidelines for practitioners are also provided.     

Investment-specific technical progress,capital obsolescence and job creation

This paper shows that faster disembodied technological progress – if it is investment-specific – might reduce job creation because the obsolescence cost of capital increases, which reduces the net return of a job. This effect could be called the obsolescence effect. It is also shown that the increase in the rate of decline of the U.S. relative price of investment – which can be used as a proxy for the rate of investment-specific technical progress – may have increased the obsolescence costs of capital, which might account for the observed fall in U.S. vacancy–unemployment ratios and job finding rates after the mid-seventies.     

The impact of public regulation on housing quality and on structural changes

This paper represents a theoretical investigation of profit maximizing behavior of a landlord under rent control. The situation envisioned is one that the landlord owns, free and clear, either two housing units ready to merge or one large one ready to convert into two small ones; in each case the units are already in place, such that capital costs are sunk and treated as bygones. Each unit has a technology of production of housing services with a fixed input of quantity of space (shelter) and a variable input of quality, that is affected by physical ageing (non-controllable) and by maintenance (controllable). At starting time t₀, we have a state of quality and a historical state of initial quality Q?_i, at the time the building was built, with the implicit constraint that Q_i(t) < Q?_i, for all t> t₀. The analysis addresses the general question of housing structural changes—conversion or merger—and how these changes are being accelerated under the threat of rent control.     

Heterogeneity in social values and capital accumulation in a changing world

In a society characterized by a multitude of heterogeneous agents and a large number of possibly immaterial goods, each one having distinct social and personal values, we study the impact of these relative values on intergenerational capital accumulation, as a function of economic and social parameters such as capital mobility, productivity and personal and social values discrepancies. Each agent is modelled by a one-period production function and a two-period intertemporal utility. Agents live, produce and consume over one period, but optimize over two periods, so providing a remaining stock of goods for the next generation. This creates a dynamics in capital accumulation depending on social and individual values. A threshold appears in capital stock accumulation that depends on personal and social values’ volatilities, and below which the initial stock will be depleted. Whereas volatility in social values increases the threshold, impairing capital accumulation, adverse shocks in goods’ values may reverse the dynamics of the accumulation process. Finally, capital mobility specifically favors forerunners, but capital accumulation in one or several sectors may shift social values in their direction, at the expense of other sectors.

     

Intangible capital in the pharmaceutical and chemical industry

We investigate whether measures of intangible capital based on advertising and R&D can explain variation in Tobin's Q ratio for the pharmaceutical and chemical industry. The study is motivated by prior literature studying this relation in other industries, recent literature investigating intangible capital in this industry, and the larger controversy about whether stock valuations have been high due to irrational investors or large investment in intangible capital. We find that our measures of intangible capital are statistically significant determinants of Q and explain 20% of the variation in our sample. When age and industry are incorporated into the model our explanatory power reaches 25%.     

Determinants of capital structure choice: A structural equation modeling approach

In their seminal research on the determinants of capital structure choice using structural equation modeling (SEM), Titman and Wessels [Titman, S., & Wessels, R. (1988). The determinants of capital structure choice. Journal of Finance, 43, 1–19] obtain weak results and hence call for further investigation. We apply a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, with refined indicators, to a pooled sample for the period 1988–2003 and find more convincing results than those obtained by Titman and Wessels. With the capital structure measured simultaneously by the ratios of long-term debt, short-term debt, and convertible debt to the market value of equity, our results show that growth is the most important determinant of capital structure choice, followed in order by profitability, collateral value, volatility, non-debt tax shields, and uniqueness. Moreover, we find that long-term debt is the most important proxy of capital structure, followed by short-term debt, and then convertible debt.     

Structural change and technological development

It is important for our understanding of sectoral and regional structural change to analyze the R & D-activities. In this paper we show that R & D should be analyzed as an endogenous, intermediate, public investment variable rather than as ordinary capital investment. The allocation of resources for R&D cannot be decentralized regionally or sectorally but should preferably be decided on as a problem of optimal taxation. It is shown that the optimal rate of taxation for R&D is determined by possibilities of substitution between ordinary capital investments and R&D, by the propensity to invest and by the productivity of the R&D- producing sector. A dynamic model with accessibility representation of knowledge is finally formulated. This interregional R&D-model also has equilibrium growth properties. The equilibrium rate of growth of all regions of this model can be raised by decreasing any interregional distance or by raising any regional propensity to invest.     

Comment on “The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right”

One of the most important equations in modern finance theory and practise is the WACC textbook formula accounting for the capital structure and resulting tax consequences on valuing a stream of cash flows. In the article “The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right” published in this paper by Richard A. Miller in February 2009, the correctness of this formula is questioned and so-called “nonlinear WACC” are derived. This paper shows that the statements in Miller’s article are questionable themselves and that the standard WACC approach nevertheless yields correct results.