Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas: An analysis of alternative methodologies

Questions raised by J.R. Meyer and J.W. Millimar on the appropriate level of sophistication in regional econometric models are addressed by comparing the modeling methodologies for each of six diverse substate areas. The methodologies range from aggregated recursive structures driven by an ARIMA time-series model of export-base employment to highly detailed simultaneous equation models. It is found that recursive model accuracy is relatively insensitive to forecast accuracy of the model-driving variable and simultaneous models are more accurate than recursive ones, but relative accuracies of aggregated and detailed simultaneous models are less clear. Population and personal income estimates are improved by disaggregation, but with respect to employment, there is a trade-off in model structure between average employment prediction accuracy over a number of time periods and turning point prediction accuracy.     

An alternative urban world is possible: a declaration for urban research and action

At its June 2002 meeting in Paris and Caen, France, the members of the International Network for Urban Research and Action (INURA) collectively agreed on a declaration to express the organization's urbanist agenda. This declaration operates on two levels: one makes five statements conceived in the tradition of earlier (for example situationist) manifestos; the other is a set of concise statements on the state of the globalization process in the era of globalization and neoliberalism. Subsections of the declaration deal with an urban world, a global city, migrant cities, unsustainable urban‐natural relations, neoliberalization, attacks on democracy, community vulnerability, the rise of racism, and some thoughts on possible alternatives. The strategic purpose of this declaration was to be an intervention at meetings of the international urban community, for example for the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre in January 2003 and similar regional and local events. The declaration is published here in order to invite debate among other scholars and activists on the issues raised in its theses and statements.     

An integrated model of downtown parking and traffic congestion

This paper is the first to look at cruising for parking from an economic perspective. We present a downtown parking model that integrates traffic congestion and saturated on-street parking; the stock of cars cruising for parking adds to traffic congestion. Two major results emerge from the model, one of which is robust. The robust one is that, whether or not the amount of on-street parking is optimal, it is efficient to raise the on-street parking fee to the point where cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated. The other is that, if the parking fee is fixed at a sub-optimal level, it is second-best optimal to increase the amount of curbside allocated to parking until cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated     

An integrated model of downtown parking and traffic congestion

This paper is the first to look at cruising for parking from an economic perspective. We present a downtown parking model that integrates traffic congestion and saturated on-street parking; the stock of cars cruising for parking adds to traffic congestion. Two major results emerge from the model, one of which is robust. The robust one is that, whether or not the amount of on-street parking is optimal, it is efficient to raise the on-street parking fee to the point where cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated. The other is that, if the parking fee is fixed at a sub-optimal level, it is second-best optimal to increase the amount of curbside allocated to parking until cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated     

An alternative model for the analysis of variance with random effects

The standard model for the analysis of variance with random effects implies, for the case of two independent variables, that single effects must be tested not against the error, but against the interaction mean squares. This causes, in comparison with the fixed effects AV, a considerable loss of test power, particularly for the 2 × 2 table. An alternative modelling of the interaction effect is proposed which completely avoids the loss of power.     

Sorting urban development strategies in a federal system: An information theoretic approach

Changes in population for the nation's largest central cities are decomposed into their regional shift and city-suburban disparity components. These decompositions, performed within an information theoretic context, provide a basis for distinguishing urban development policy roles among the federal, state, and local governmental sectors.     

Entry modes in reshoring strategies: An empirical analysis

The Entry Mode (EM) choice is a fundamental issue in reshoring initiatives. Despite several authors have studied the determinants of offshoring EM, no study has investigated so far the factors affecting the reshoring EM and its relation with the offshoring EM. The purpose of this paper is to examine which factors influence entry mode choice in reshoring initiatives. We develop a conceptual framework that explains the reshoring EM in terms of country-, industry-, firm- and project-specific factors, in addition to the offshoring EM choice. Next, we test this model by using a sample of 677 cross-industry and cross-country reshoring projects. Based on the results, we find that offshoring EM significantly constrains the subsequent reshoring EM. More in detail, firms adopting offshore insourcing entry modes tend to retain these modes in reshoring. Furthermore, reshoring EM is explained by industry- and project-specific factors, while offshoring EM is influenced by a broader set of industry-, country-, and firm-specific factors. This study fills a gap in the reshoring literature by analysing influential factors in EM choice and by offering a comparison between the determinants of offshoring and reshoring EM.     

商业银行发展汽车金融业务的策略分析

当前,汽车市场出现井喷式增长,各商业银行相继推出新的汽车金融业务.为应对外来汽车金融公司的同业竞争,避免再次陷入“车贷信用危机“,商业银行应积极借鉴国外的业务发展经验,针对自身业务发展障碍,制定合理的策略,审慎发展.     

城市居民与高污染性配套经营活动的经济关系分析

从社会效益最大化的角度认为,对于居民区的高污染性经营活动,仅以法令或制度的形式加以制止或惩罚有失公平;居民与配套设施经营者是相邻产权空间的产权主体,解决二者之间的产权纠纷不能以单方面的利益为出发点.从经济学产权理论的视角对这一问题进行了新的解释,并找出了解决这类问题的新途径.     

The franchising business model: an entrepreneurial growth alternative

The franchising business model is widely and increasingly used by entrepreneurs seeking growth through geographic expansion. Thus, continued research efforts are needed to help entrepreneurs make wise choices as to whether the franchising business model is appropriate for them. To help promote such research, we reviewed the literature on reasons for franchising and outcomes of franchising. Based on that review, we drew conclusions as to future research directions likely to be fruitful. Specifically, we recommend that researchers (a) continue adding theoretical diversity to franchising research, (b) build large-scale, longitudinal databases, (c) test or control for implicit and explicit assumptions, (d) pay more attention to micro-level considerations within franchise networks, and (e) compare franchising with alternative business models suitable for geographic expansion.     

An alternative quasi likelihood approach,Bayesian analysis and data-based inference for model specification

This paper studies an alternative quasi likelihood approach under possible model misspecification. We derive a filtered likelihood from a given quasi likelihood (QL), called a limited information quasi likelihood (LI-QL), that contains relevant but limited information on the data generation process. Our LI-QL approach, in one hand, extends robustness of the QL approach to inference problems for which the existing approach does not apply. Our study in this paper, on the other hand, builds a bridge between the classical and Bayesian approaches for statistical inference under possible model misspecification. We can establish a large sample correspondence between the classical QL approach and our LI-QL based Bayesian approach. An interesting finding is that the asymptotic distribution of an LI-QL based posterior and that of the corresponding quasi maximum likelihood estimator share the same “sandwich”-type second moment. Based on the LI-QL we can develop inference methods that are useful for practical applications under possible model misspecification. In particular, we can develop the Bayesian counterparts of classical QL methods that carry all the nice features of the latter studied in  White (1982). In addition, we can develop a Bayesian method for analyzing model specification based on an LI-QL.     

Urban residential land rent function: An alternative Muth-Mills model

The urban residential land rent function has been studied extensively in the field of urban economics, and the land rent function of Muth and Mills is considered to be one of the typical functional forms which is used in empirical studies. However, the model of Muth and Mills simply assumed the demand function for housing services to be a power function of income, which gives rise to a question. The main purpose of this paper is to derive an alternative form of the urban residential land rent function which is consistent with the utility maximization behavior of consumers and to discuss the estimation procedure of the derived land rent function.     

Amenities in an urban general equilibrium model

This paper has presented a general equilibrium Tiebout-median voter model. The model was solved numerically for prices and distributions of consumers which correspond to equilibria, and the results of the numerical solution of the model were used to evaluate the HES and Yinger Propositions. That complete capitalization always occurs means that the HES Proposition is false; Yinger's Proposition is misdirected since complete capitalization occurs regardless of the presence or absence of amenities (although amenities affect the equilibrium solutions). We have argued that capitalization is never appropriately measured by price differentials in a general equilibrium model.     

Insurance as an alternative environmental regulator: findings from a retrospective pollution claims survey

Little inquiry has occurred on insurance as an alternative environmental regulator, despite a growing interest in the subject. This paper presents the findings from a survey and questionnaire on two leading UK insurance companies' pollution claims. Insurers' initial underwriting assessments and post‐loss investigations and insureds' environmental management practices are poorly developed regarding pollution issues. Insurance is currently a weak financial instrument to prevent pollution losses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

城市资本存量模型分析

文章研究城市资本市场中资本存量的问题,建立了城市人均资本存量模型,反映了资本存量与各影响因素的相关关系.利用该模型对上海市的人均资本存量进行了分析.该模型具有预测作用,有助于城市管理主体制定城市发展政策.     

Multivariate time series analysis of traffic congestion measures in urban areas as they relate to socioeconomic indicators

Traffic congestion has significant adverse implications for the environment and economy. Many state and local transportation agencies have implemented traffic congestion management practices to alleviate the negative implications of urban traffic. One of the major drawbacks of traffic congestion management practices is that they do not account for socio-demographic and economic factors, which have a significant impact on traffic congestion. Understanding the influence of these factors is very crucial because they can help to communicate the system's performance management and target setting. Only a few studies analyzed the relationship between traffic conditions (e.g., traffic demand and vehicular traveling speed) with a limited number of socio-economic factors. Moreover, most of the existing models ignore the temporal and spatial autocorrelations of traffic congestion, which may significantly limit their reliability and effectiveness. This study is developed with the purpose of identifying the most relevant external factors that affect traffic congestion performance measures. To conduct the research, we have used three urban congestion performance measures collected from 51 metropolitan areas across the U.S. over a four-year period, 2013–2016: travel time index, planning time index, and congested hours. We have used multivariate time series models to account for the complex inter-relationships among the performance measures and socioeconomic factors to identify the most influential factors affecting system performance. We have finally developed predictive models to estimate the traffic congestion measures using these factors. The results of rigorous modeling show that the factors influencing the traffic congestion measures are monthly average daily traffic (MADT), the number of employed, rental vacancy rate, building permits, fuel price index, and Economic Conditions Index (ECI). The prediction models indicated that the effects of these factors are statistically significant and could be used to forecast future trends in three performance measures accurately.     

Donor survival analysis: an alternative perspective on lifecycle modelling

There is considerable pressure on charities and voluntary organisations, both to reduce ‘wasted’ expenditure on administrative costs and unwanted mailings, and to deliver more and better services from their voluntary support. Modern tools allow organisations to tailor mailing requirements to individual needs easily and cheaply. Charities need to become ever more efficient: improving the response rates, while reducing overall expenditure on money‐raising activities. Simple means and summary statistics can be seriously biased and misleading for this type of data. Survival analysis is a good, sound and flexible tool to analyse length of time to next donation and membership data. This can lead to a better understanding and more efficient use of the available budgets. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications