Urban housing density and the price of housing services

Theoretical research has shown that urban housing density, defined as housing services per unit of land, is an increasing function of the price of housing services. However, this concept of density hides as well as provides information because housing services per unit of land equals the product of housing services per dwelling unit and dwelling units per unit of land. This paper proves that housing density, defined as dwelling units per unit of land, can vary either directly or inversely with the price of housing services.     

城市发展与住房意愿支付价格

以城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和反映城市生活质量的各类宜居性指标建立了中国35个主要城市的城市发展与住房需求关系的模型,并以此估计了城市住房意愿支付价格。实证结果表明,城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和以各类宜居性指标反映的城市生活质量可以解释70%左右住房价格的城市间差异。虽然城市劳动收入对住房意愿支付价格的影响仍然很大,但随着社会经济的发展,中国主要城市的生活质量对住房意愿支付价格增长的贡献有逐步增大的趋势。     

德国福利住房开发的城市规划方法——以斯图加特原掷弹兵兵营居住项目为例

通过对德国斯图加特原掷弹兵兵营居住开发项目目标、规划论证、规划编制过程、规划用地布局和规划控制措施的剖析,为了解德国当代福利住房开发的城市规划方法提供了一则详尽的案例,并总结出德国当代福利住宅开发注重社会公平和可持续发展的特点。     

The housing market effects of discrete land use regulations: Evidence from the California coastal boundary zone

The California coast line borders some of the most beautiful and expensive land in the entire world. The California Coastal Commission was created in 1976 to protect the coast line and to regulate land use within the coastal boundary zone. This well defined regulatory boundary offers a unique opportunity to study the consequences of land use regulation on nearby housing located in the same political jurisdiction. Using two different geocoded data sets, we document gentrification within the boundary and discuss possible explanations for these patterns.     

An open-city model with nonmalleable housing

Previous city and housing models are extended to allow for the nonmalleability of housing and two classes of residents. The model, which is framed in the context of a monocentric circular city, assumes an individual housing unit to be defined in terms of attributes (quality and residential density). The quality of a given housing unit can be varied without adjustment costs, but changes in residential density on a particular site require prior demolition of the existing structure on the site. Producers of housing and consumers are assumed to be myopic. By assuming that the city is in short-run equilibrium at each point of time, it is shown that the pattern of land use observed at any stage depends on the past history of the city and the current rates of population growth. The possibilities for filtering of houses from one income group to another are also discussed briefly.     

Selective housing policy in local housing markets and the supply of housing

Selective programs and subsidies have an impact on both the financial position and the housing conditions of the household to whom they are allocated. They also affect the equilibrium outcome in housing markets. This study analyzes how the housing stock in Norwegian municipalities is affected by selective targeted interventions on the supply and demand-sides of the market. The empirical analysis shows that additions to the stock of public housing increases the total housing stock. For every 100 new public units built, 60 units are added to the total housing stock. Demand-side subsidies are also shown to increase the size of the housing stock. Using a linear spline it is shown that the magnitude of the marginal effect on the total size of the housing stock is strongly decreasing in program size.     

Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective review of the relevant literature on econometric methods for identifying housing bubbles together with some new methods of research and an empirical application. We first present a technical definition of a housing bubble that facilitates empirical work and discuss significant difficulties encountered in practical work and the solutions that have been proposed in the past literature. A major challenge in all econometric identification procedures is to assess prices in relation to fundamentals, which requires measurement of fundamentals. One solution to address this challenge is to estimate the fundamental component from an underlying structural relationship involving measurable variables. A second aim of the paper is to improve the estimation accuracy of fundamentals by means of an easy-to-implement reduced-form approach. Since many of the relevant variables that determine fundamentals are nonstationary and interdependent we use the endogenous instrumental variable based method (IVX) to estimate the reduced-form model to reduce the finite sample bias which arises from highly persistent regressors and endogeneity. The recursive evolving test proposed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (PSY) is applied to the estimated nonfundamental component for the identification of speculative bubbles. The new bubble test developed here is referred to as PSY-IVX. An empirical application to the eight Australian capital city housing markets over the period 1999–2017 shows that bubble testing results are sensitive to different ways of controlling for fundamentals and highlights the importance of accurate estimation of these housing market fundamentals.     

Dutch housing allowances: social housing at risk

This article deals with the vulnerability of the Dutch housing allowance scheme. This scheme can be compared with the British housing benefit. The vulnerability of the scheme has been augmented by the current less favourable economic conditions (stagnating household incomes, increasing unemployment) and the Dutch government's announcement that it plans to reduce housing allowance expenditure. Two scenarios are outlined, which may serve to resolve the danger of exploding housing allowances expenditure in the coming years. If a market‐led scenario is chosen, whereby housing associations strive to achieve market rents, the housing allowance will be transformed into a form of housing voucher, the value of which is not directly related to the actual rental price of the property. In this American‐style model, the value of the vouchers would be linked to a ‘virtual’ rent, say 40% of the average rental price in the region. The housing associations would then lose their special semi‐public status. Under the social housing model, the housing associations would retain their special status provided they aimed to achieve rents somewhat lower than the market level. The housing allowance would remain directly linked to the actual rental price. However, some marked changes would be required to render this system sustainable. The Netherlands cannot avoid having to make this choice. Cet article porte sur la vulnérabilité du régime hollandais d'aide au logement. Celui‐ci est comparable aux prestations britanniques. La fragilité du régime a été accrue par les conditions économiques actuelles moins favorables (stagnation du revenu des ménages, augmentation du chômage) et par l'annonce du gouvernement néderlandais relative à la réduction prévue des dépenses d'allocation‐logement. Sont présentés deux scénarios susceptibles de limiter le risque d'explosion des dépenses d'allocations dans les années à venir. Si l'option choisie est un scénario de marché où les associations pour le logement luttent pour atteindre les loyers du marché, l'allocation‐logement se transformera en ‘bon’ dont la valeur ne sera pas directement liée au montant réel du loyer. Selon ce modèle de type américain, la valeur des ‘bons’ sera fonction d'un loyer ‘virtuel’, soit environ 40% du prix moyen dans la région; les associations perdraient alors leur statut particulier semi‐public. Selon le modèle de logement social, elles conserveraient leur statut, à condition qu'elles cherchent à atteindre des loyers légèrement inférieurs au niveau du marché; l'allocation‐logement serait alors directement liée au montant réel du loyer. Toutefois, pour que le régime subsiste, il faudrait procéder à d'importants changements. Les Pays‐Bas ne peuvent s'épargner ce choix.     

廉租房岂能替代经济适用房?

据悉,最近河北省正在研究将经济适用房与廉租房进行"并轨"的政策,而此前,辽宁、山东等地已实行"并轨",并引起社会各界热议.支持"并轨"者,观点无非有三:一是经济适用房分配环节曾经漏洞百出,致使民众对此怨声载道;二是经济适用房属于政策手段,而解决住房问题还得走市场化道路才有效率;三是以廉租房取代经济适用房,可以减轻民众住房负担,造福于民.那么,事实果真如此吗?……     

A simple urban growth model with durable housing

In the last decade the static theory of residential urban location and land use has been extensively developed. The theory has generated many useful insights, but because it ignores growth and the durability of housing and urban infrastructure there are many urban phenomena it cannot explain. In this paper a simple urban growth model with durable housing, in which all builders have perfect foresight, is presented. The discussion focuses on the qualitative differences between the economics of this model, the static class of models, and a class of dynamic models in which myopic expectations are assumed.     

A potential hazard of housing allowances for public housing

Benefit estimates indicate a large number of small households would emigrate from public housing if faced with an either-or choice between public housing and a housing allowance. Moreover, waiting lists are not sufficiently long to replace the emigres, so vacancy rates for small apartments might run as high as 55% under such a scheme. Raising public housing rents and making public housing tenants eligible for housing allowances seems a viable way to reduce emigration, although the scheme tried here, which sets rents equal to operating costs, does not eliminate emigration or vacancies entirely.     

The housing market

The housing market has gained further momentum with activity accelerating and prices continuing to increase strongly on all measures in Q3. This trend is expected to continue, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting strong growth in new buyer enquiries and – to a lesser extent – in new instructions…     

Alternative housing concepts and the benefits of public housing programs

Almost all previous studies analyzing the benefits and consumption effects of public housing programs have used aggregation theorems to construct composite goods “housing” and “all other goods.” In this paper we show that, if it is more realistically assumed that households have preferences defined on housing characteristics, benefits estimated using the composite approach are upward biased. Some empirical work suggests that the bias is large. We therefore strongly advise to take into account the composition of the bundle of housing attributes provided under a public housing program when evaluating the program's economic effects.     

The housing market

The recovery in the housing market has continued, with house prices picking up on all measures over the past few months. And there are encouraging signs of underlying strength, with the latest survey data from RICS reporting healthy growth in both new buyer enquiries and new instructions…     

Option pricing with discrete time jump processes

In this paper we propose new option pricing models based on class of models with jumps contained in the Lévy-type based models (NIG-Lévy, Schoutens, 2003, Merton-jump, Merton, 1976 and Duan based model, Duan et al., 2007). By combining these different classes of models with several volatility dynamics of the GARCH type, we aim at taking into account the dynamics of financial returns in a realistic way. The associated risk neutral dynamics of the time series models is obtained through two different specifications for the pricing kernel: we provide a characterization of the change in the probability measure using the Esscher transform and the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure. We finally assess empirically the performance of this modelling approach, using a dataset of European options based on the S&P 500 and on the CAC 40 indices. Our results show that models involving jumps and a time varying volatility provide realistic pricing and hedging results for options with different kinds of time to maturities and moneyness. These results are supportive of the idea that a realistic time series model can provide realistic option prices making the approach developed here interesting to price options when option markets are illiquid or when such markets simply do not exist.     

Techniques for discriminant analysis with discrete variables

7. Summary Techniques for discriminant analyses are given if some or all discriminators are discrete. An application of the techniques to a previously carried out validation study is presented.