大盘封闭式基金仍有上涨空间

以内部收益率方法（即以市价买入，以到期日净值卖出获得的年化收益率）对封闭式基金的分析显示．小盘封闭式基金具有更高的内部收益率，然而这种方法在计算时并没有考虑到期日的变化、净值增长率、     

平稳行情下基金业绩持续性研究

本文以成立于2017年前的股票式及混合式基金为样本,使用FF因素模型研究在不同市场行情下取得高收益的基金未来业绩持续性。研究发现在平稳行情下取得高收益的基金,基金未来业绩更具有持续性。本文提出“平稳”收益率指标,是衡量基金业绩真实情况的一种新的指标,对基金未来业绩具有显著预测能力,为投资者选择合适的基金提供一定的的参考意义。     

开放式基金业绩与VaR风险持续性比较研究

分别采用列联表和横截面回归方法,选择基金净值收益率、Jensen指数度量基金业绩,VaR度量基金收益风险,分析2004年1月～2008年4月间我国开放式基金中的股票型基金与混合型基金业绩和风险的持续性,及其在牛市和熊市阶段的不同表现,发现仅在2004年～2005年期间基金经过风险调整的业绩具有持续性,在其它阶段,基金业绩和风险均没有显著持续性;当市场从牛市转为震荡调整阶段后,基金业绩出现反转现象,而风险具有显著的持续性。     

流动性风险因子差异与封闭式基金折价关系研究

封闭式基金折价问题是长期以来困扰资本市场的一个难题.通过研究封闭式基金及其资产净值收益率的截面数据,检验了封闭式基金及其资产组合的流动性风险贴水差异,包括附加在基金及资产组合的风险收益和相关因子,如基金代理成本、基金管理业绩预期及Fama-French三因子等与基金折价的关系.实证检验的结果表明,国内封闭式基金流动性风险附加因子的差异可以部分解释封闭式基金交易折价现象.     

封闭式基金的业绩持续性检验

选择国内2004年存在的封闭式基金,从1999年至2004年的年收益进行业绩持续性能力的实证研究。结果发现封闭式基金的年收益存在着一定的业绩持续性表现,但检验的有效性并不强,同时这种业绩持续性表现呈现出越来越弱化的趋势。这说明封闭式基金的业绩持续能力尚待加强。     

从开放式基金的分红透视其投资收益

南方稳健成长基金经过半年的运作,于4月23日公布了首次分红公告,每10份基金单位分红0.25元.这是我国基金业发展史上第一只分红的开放式基金,其半年实现分红2.5%的收益率,而当前银行一年期定期储蓄的税后年收益率仅为1.58%,今年发行的三年期凭证式国债的年收益也不过2.42%.据统计,南方稳健成长开放式基金成立以来的半年内净值增长率为3.63%,而同期上证指数下跌6.47%,封闭式基金市场价格平均亏损5.33%;在波动性方面,该基金净值收益率的标准差仅为1.6%,远低于上证指数5.6%、封闭式基金平均4%的水平.     

封闭式基金值得关注

封闭式基金近一个月来的表现不俗。基金金元近一个月来的收益率达到了9．05％，比同期收益率最高的开放式基金上投摩根中国优势（8．83％）还高。封闭式基金中，收益率排名第二位的是基金丰和，近一个月来的收益率为8．87％，其次是基金久富，收益率为8．06％。     

业绩评价指标系统

<正> 1、股东权益收益率:在投资者和资深管理者中,普遍流行的最重要的业绩评价尺度之一就是股东权益收益率(ROE),计算方法:股东权益收益率=净利润/股东权益。它衡量了一个公司股东资本的使用效益,衡量权益资本中每1元钱的盈利。为了准确的评价上市公司的业绩,本排名分别列出1年期股东权益收益率(2002年)和3年期平均股东权益收益率(2000年～2002年)。     

我国封闭式基金业绩操纵的实证研究

基金作为主要的机构投资者,其投资行为对市场有着重大影响.本文以我国封闭式基金为例,重点研究基金持有的重仓股和重仓股中低换手率股票的价格操纵现象,通过对我国封闭式基金的重仓股和低换手率股票进行季末超额收益率反转效应检验,表明我国封闭式基金存在显著的业绩操纵现象,而且在第四季度该现象更为明显.本文对投资者选择基金和监管部门规范基金行为具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.     

浅析证券投资基金业绩评估方法

投资者应用业绩评价时,要兼顾的方面包括:单位净资产净值和投资收益率,还有每只基金的投资风险水平,并且必须要对指标进行一定的调整。本文描述了几种常规的基金业绩评估方法,包括传统的指数方法,和数据包络分析方法。     

Market valuation of marketing alliances in East Asia: Korean evidence

This paper investigates firm value created by non-equity marketing alliance announcements of Korean listed firms in terms of stock price reactions to the announcements. We find evidence that on the Korean stock market, the announcements of marketing alliances produce significant positive abnormal returns, which reflect an increase in firm value, around the announcement date. This suggests that firm managers need to seek for various marketing alliances not only for an effective competition in competitive business environments but also for enhancement in shareholder wealth. The increase in firm value has inverse relationship with firm's size and growth opportunity. In particular, marketing alliances with firms based in G7-countries create greater firm value than ones with firms based in the home country. Our study provides investors, firm managers, and academics with valuable implications of an importance of marketing alliances for valuation of firms in other Asian countries as well as in Korea.     

Periodic strategies in optimal execution with multiplicative price impact

We study the optimal execution problem with multiplicative price impact in algorithmic trading, when an agent holds an initial position of shares of a financial asset. The interselling decision times are modeled by the arrival times of a Poisson process. The criterion to be optimized consists in maximizing the expected net present value of the gains of the agent, and it is proved that an optimal strategy has a barrier form, depending only on the number of shares left and the level of the asset price.     

Does investor recognition matter for asset pricing?

In a world of market imperfections, what matters for asset prices differs from theory predictions based on perfect markets and information. In this paper, using a market setting where information costs are more pronounced, I show that the level of investor recognition/awareness matters for asset prices as predicted by Merton (1987). Using a novel dataset, I study the price effects of inclusions to and exclusions from a benchmark equity index in the context of emerging market assets. While testing for a number of existing hypotheses, I am able to document evidence for the ‘investor recognition’ hypothesis, using event study methodology. Furthermore, by making use of analysts' recommendations data, I show that there is a significant increase in coverage for the included stocks. This is also significantly related to the observed price change.     

THE SQUARED ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK MARKET

We study a complete market containing J assets, each asset contributing to the production of a single commodity at a rate that is a solution to the squared Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) SDE. The assets are owned by K agents with CRRA utility functions, who follow feasible consumption/investment regimes so as to maximize their expected time-additive utility from consumption. We compute the equilibrium for this economy and determine the state-price density process from market clearing. Reducing to a single (representative) agent, and exploiting the relation between the squared-OU and squared-Bessel SDEs, we obtain closed-form expressions for the values of bonds, assets, and options on the total asset value. Typical model parameters are estimated by fitting bond price data, and we use these parameters to price the assets and options numerically. Implications for the total asset price itself as a diffusion are discussed. We also estimate implied volatility surfaces for options and bond yields.     

Market Reforms and Commodity Price Volatility: The Case of East African Coffee Market

The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of commodity market reforms on producer price volatility using evidence from the East African coffee market. The results, based on time‐varying volatility models and key summary statistics, show that coffee market reforms in the East African Community (EAC) are associated with changes in producer price volatility and volatility persistence at both country and regional levels. However, reforms were not the only cause of changes in price volatility. The study further shows that reforms had different effects on prices volatilities of Arabica and Robusta varieties of coffee grown in individual EAC countries. These findings have wider implication for commodity market reforms and producer price stabilisation policies in the EAC and coffee producing countries in sub‐Sahara Africa.     

Rational speculative bubbles in the gold futures market: An application of dynamic factor analysis

The existence of speculative bubbles in financial markets has been a longstanding issue under debate. Many financial economists believe that, given the assumption of rational expectations and rational behavior of economic agents, an asset should be priced according to its “market fundamentals.” Others argue that self‐fulfilling rumors of market participants can influence asset prices as well. These self‐fulfilling rumors are initiated by events extraneous to markets and are often called bubbles. The rationality of both expectations and behavior often does not imply that the price of an asset be equal to its fundamental value. In other words, there can be rational deviations of the price from this value—rational bubbles. A rational bubble can arise when the actual market price depends positively on its own expected rate of change, as normally occurs in asset markets. Since agents forming rational expectations do not make systematic prediction errors, the positive relationship between price and its expected rate of change implies a similar relationship between price and its actual rate of change. Under such conditions, the arbitrary, self‐fulfilling expectation of price changes may drive actual price changes independently of market fundamentals; we refer to such a situation as a rational price bubble.¹ © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:79–108, 2001     

Bubbles Tomorrow and Bubbles Yesterday,but Never Bubbles Today?

Considering their importance and the amount of effort that has gone into understanding them, asset price bubbles continue to perplex. The evidence of these bubbles seldom squares with what would be expected from standard asset price theory. Unlike the suggestions from theory, expectations of prices of both stocks and houses tend to be procyclical—price expectations are driven by recent price performance. Thus, price expectations are extrapolative rather than rational, as assumed by standard asset price theory. Recognizing the role of extrapolative expectations in asset pricing will make monetary and macroprudential policy both more robust and more complex.     

EQUILIBRIUM STATE PRICES IN A STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL1

In a stochastic volatility model, the no-free-lunch assumption does not induce a unique arbitrage price because of market incompleteness. In this paper, we consider a contingent claim on the primitive asset, traded in zero net supply. Given a system of Arrow-Debreu state prices, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with an intertemporal additive equilibrium model that we fully characterize. We show that the risk premia corresponding to the minimal martingale of Föllmer and Schweizer (1991) are consistent with logarithmic preferences, while the Hull and White model (1987) (volatility risk premium independent of the asset price) is consistent with a class of utility functions including constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) ones.     

A Discrete Time Equivalent Martingale Measure

An equivalent martingale measure selection strategy for discrete time, continuous state, asset price evolution models is proposed. The minimal martingale law is shown to generally fail to produce a probability law in this context. The proposed strategy, termed the extended Girsanov principle, performs a multiplicative decomposition of asset price movements into a predictable and martingale component with the measure change identifying the discounted asset price process to the martingale component. However, unlike the minimal martingale law, the resulting martingale law of the extended Girsanov principle leads to weak form efficient price processes. It is shown that the proposed measure change is relevant for economies in which investors adopt hedging strategies that minimize the variance of a risk adjusted discounted cost of hedging that uses risk adjusted asset prices in calculating hedging returns. Risk adjusted prices deflate asset prices by the asset's excess return. The explicit form of the change of measure density leads to tractable econometric strategies for testing the validity of the extended Girsanov principle. A number of interesting applications of the extended Girsanov principle are also developed.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.