Global financial cycle and Brazil’s financial integration

ABSTRACT

Recent studies have discussed the influence of the global financial cycle on capital flows to emerging and developing countries. This paper evaluates the relationship between the greater degree of financial integration, and macroeconomic performance over the last two decades in Brazil. The literature has highlighted the Brazilian experience as being paradigmatic among emerging countries regarding the relationship between financial integration and regulation of capital flows to deal with boom and bust cycles. Methodologically, we employ a vector autoregressive model with error correction that allows us to evaluate the cointegration between the variables. Our main hypothesis is that a greater degree of financial integration is associated with negative developments in variables such as gross domestic product, country risk, interest rates, and exchange rate volatility. In addition, this study presents a further contribution by observing the existence of the interaction between the consequences of financial integration and the global financial cycle. More specifically, we found that: (i) an increase in the degree of financial integration generates deeper effects in downward periods of the global financial cycle; and (ii) a decline in that cycle generates greater impacts when a higher degree of financial integration is present.     

Corporate Finance in Africa: The Interactive Impact of Firm Nationality and Characteristics

Using a balance panel data of 351 publicly quoted firms in eleven major African stock exchanges, I investigated the impact of the differences in the internal structures of domestic and foreign firms on corporate financial decisions in Africa. I also analyzed the sensitivity of the impact of the internal firm characteristic on changes in the level of exogenous factors such as marginal tax structure and financial system development. The arising results showed that among the selected key internal characteristics of firms, only the impact of profitability and tangibility on financial structure was significantly sensitive to the proportion of domestic/foreign shareholding and that, consistent with capital structure theories, corporate financing decisions in Africa were significantly sensitive to marginal tax policies and the degree of financial system development prevailing in a country. The results suggest that by investing in assets that are acceptable to lenders and investors as collaterals and maintaining reasonable stability in their cash flow positions, domestic firms can in practice enhance their access to strategic investment capital.     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs

We show that incorporating distribution costs into a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice helps to explain the home bias in international equity investment. Our model is able to replicate observed investment positions for a wide range of parameter values, even if agents have an incentive to hedge labor income risk by purchasing foreign equity. This is because the existence of a retail sector affects both the correlation of domestic returns with the domestic price level and the correlation between financial and non‐financial income.     

Dollarization and the inflation threshold

Abstract.  Empirical evidence suggests non-linearity in the impact of inflation on financial intermediation and real activity. Evidence also suggests that high inflation affects financial intermediation through the substitution of dollars 'under the mattress' for savings in domestic banks. We model an economy where inflation and real activity are positively related at low levels of inflation. However, when the inflation rate exceeds a threshold, agents substitute dollars for deposits issued by domestic banks, reducing the scale of financial intermediation and investment. As a consequence, at high levels of inflation, capital stock and output become negatively related to the inflation rate.     

Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms

We use a rare events logistic regression model as well as traditional probit and logit models to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980–2005. We show that large austerity plans, mainly implemented through spending cuts rather than tax hikes, promote financial reforms. By considering reforms affecting specific areas of the financial sector, we find that the banking sector reforms and domestic finance reforms are more likely to occur when fiscal adjustments are put in place. Interestingly, while banking sector reforms are mainly prompted during periods of tax-driven consolidations, spending cuts driven consolidation packages seem to propel the implementation of domestic finance reforms. Finally, we show that higher inflation, lower degree of trade openness, a deterioration of financial conditions and, to some extent, a fall in the degree of competitiveness enhance the probability of financial reforms.     

Subordinated Financial Integration and Financialisation in Emerging Capitalist Economies: The Brazilian Experience

This paper analyses the recent changes in financial practices and relations in emerging capitalist economies (ECEs) using the example of Brazil. It argues that in ECEs these financial transformations, akin to the financialisation phenomena observed in Core Capitalist Economies (CCEs), are fundamentally shaped by their subordinated integration into a financialised and structured world economy. To analyse this subordinated financialisation, the paper draws on the framework of international currency hierarchies. It shows by means of two specific processes how the existence of a hierarchic international monetary system has changed the financial behaviour of domestic economic agents, and with it the structure of the financial system. The first process highlights the phenomenon of reserve accumulation and the changing behaviour of domestic banks. The second points to ECEs’ sustained external vulnerability and its impact on the operations of Brazilian non-financial corporations. The paper also shows that not only were these financial transformations shaped by ECEs’ subordinated financial integration, but also that it was these financialisation tendencies themselves which contributed to cementing existing hierarchies and further deepened existing asymmetries between ECEs and CCEs.     

International capital flows under asymmetric information and costly monitoring: implications of debt and equity financing

Abstract.  The impact of increased equity trade on a small open economy is examined. Stochastic second‐period output depends on first‐period investment. Owing to information asymmetries, domestic agents cannot reveal credibly the level of first‐period investment to international financiers. Consistent with recent proposals to strengthen the international financial system, domestic firms choose to incur self‐monitoring costs to increase capital inflows. As an alternative to borrowing, domestic agents may sell ownership claims to second‐period output. When equity claims convey information, equity trade is preferred to international borrowing, consistent with developing economies' observed reliance on international equity relative to debt in recent years. JEL Classification: F41, G15     

Effects of financial constraints on export performance of firms during the global financial crisis: microeconomic evidence from Korea

This study uses a manufacturing firm-level panel data set of South Korea for 2006–2013 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on the export performance of firms, with particular emphasis on the corporate ownership structure. The empirical results show that foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries are not affected by financial constraint during both crisis and noncrisis periods, implying advantages of foreign ownership. However, domestic firms suffer more from financial constraints on exports during crisis years. In particular, domestic firms without parent firms are financially constrained during both crisis and noncrisis periods. However, those with parent firms do not experience financial constraints during noncrisis periods, although they too suffer from them during crisis periods. Thus, parent–subsidiary linkage among domestic firms plays an important role in alleviating financial constraints on export activity in noncrisis years but not as much during crisis years. Therefore, domestic parent firms exhibit less resilience to the global financial crisis, in comparison to foreign MNC parent firms.     

Opposition to FDI and financial shocks

We identify conditions under which emerging market's capitalists would oppose financial reform in an economy where entrepreneurs can borrow internationally, but foreign agents cannot hold domestic equity. A financial crisis that raises the domestic interest rate may induce the emerging market's capitalists to support opening up the economy to FDI. Even in these circumstances, the emerging market's capitalists would prefer a partial reform to a comprehensive one. If the attitude of capitalists is the obstacle to a comprehensive reform, a side payment from labor to the capitalists may be needed to induce a reform.     

经济金融化行为的政治经济学分析--一个演化博弈框架

自2008年美国金融危机发生以来,经济金融化成为国内外学界关注的焦点。文章从政治经济学的角度指出了金融化的本质在于资本积累演变为资本脱离剩余价值的生产与交换而通过金融系统实现增殖的过程,进而通过构建一个包含异质性主体的非对称演化博弈模型,揭示了非金融主体与金融主体之间从普通经济关系到金融关系的动态演变过程及其作用机制。研究表明：(1)经济主体之间的动态关系演变表现为非金融企业主要通过金融活动获取利润,金融企业则关注中间业务和表外业务并将普通家庭纳入其体系使之成为新的利润源泉,而普通家庭则被迫接受强势经济主体的二次分利,这些关系的变化将导致一国经济的金融化乃至金融危机。(2)经济发展状态取决于金融主体与非金融主体之间的相互关系,其中,非金融主体行为起主导性作用。在既定假设下,当非金融主体仅通过其资源保护行为影响金融主体的分利技术时,既可以促使一国经济走向新的稳定状态也可促使其走向崩溃;当非金融主体通过其资源保护行为和分利技术影响金融主体的分利技术时,经济可以实现演化稳定状态。(3)经济主体的金融化行为有三个层面的影响：一是经济主体的金融化行为促进经济主体自身在短期内实现高额资本积累;二是金融主体的分利行为与非金融主体的生产行为经常呈现对立的经济关系并容易被激化;三是没有政府介入的自由市场必然导致矛盾激化而陷入危机。因此,深入理解经济金融化问题的本质及其对经济的影响机制,对当前中国的经济转型和金融改革都具有重要意义。     

Current account dynamics and capital mobility in the newly industrialized countries

This paper examines the current account dynamics in a group of ten newly industrialized countries (NICs) during the period 1980–2012 using a panel error-correction model. The model is also used to empirically test whether the degree of capital mobility is positively related to financial openness. The Chin-Ito (2006, 2008) financial openness index is used to classify the countries into different groups, and we place the countries in one group that are similar to each other in terms of their financial openness. Furthermore, to evaluate the extent of capital mobility over the different period from 1980 to 2012, the total period under study is divided into three sub-periods. The estimation results indicate that there exist long-run equilibrium relationships between domestic saving, investment, and current account in all groups regardless of their degree of financial openness. We find that more openness in terms of the capital account is associated with a higher degree of capital mobility in the case of NICs. The empirical result also indicates that the degree of capital mobility is higher in the first and third sub-period.     

Smoothing sudden stops

Emerging economies are often exposed to sudden shortages of international financial resources. Yet domestic agents do not seem to take preventive measures against these sudden stops. We highlight the central role played by the limited development of ex ante (insurance) and ex post (spot) domestic financial markets in generating this collective undervaluation of international resources. We study several policies to counteract the external underinsurance. We do this by solving for the optimal mechanism given the constraints imposed by limited financial development, and then considering the main financial policies—in terms of the model and practical relevance—that implement this solution.     

Financial openness and capital mobility: a dynamic panel analysis

Does unrestricted control on the movement of capital increase capital mobility? Theoretically, the answer is yes. This paper uses the Feldstein–Horioka savings–investment methodology to examine the impact of financial openness on the degree of capital mobility in 104 countries. Our estimates suggest that financial openness has increased capital mobility in developing countries, while its effect is statistically insignificant in OECD countries. This also implies that a developing country with more financial openness can have more access to external capital markets for borrowings. Foreign aid also appears to supplement domestic savings for investment in developing countries. In line with the previous findings, our study also confirms that capital is more mobile for developing countries.     

Capital controls and welfare

This paper computes welfare levels under different degree of capital controls and compares them with the welfare level under perfect capital mobility by using the methodology of Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2007). We show that perfect capital mobility is not always optimal and that capital controls may enhance an economy’s welfare level. There exists an optimal degree of capital-account restriction that achieves a higher level of welfare than that under perfect capital mobility, if the economy has costly financial intermediaries. The results of our analysis imply that as the domestic financial intermediaries are less efficient, the government should impose stricter capital controls in the form of a tax on foreign borrowing.     

HOW DOES FOREIGN BANK OWNERSHIP IN THE BANKING SECTOR AFFECT DOMESTIC BANK BEHAVIOUR? A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how foreign bank ownership in the banking sector affects domestic bank behaviour and whether this relationship depends on the economic and financial conditions of the host country. This paper contains 795 individual banks in 39 countries covering the period 1999–2006. Foreign ownership is calculated using bank level data as a proxy for the degree of foreign bank ownership in the banking sector. First, we find that foreign bank ownership is associated with a decrease in both the profitability and overhead expenses of the domestic bank after applying the system panel Generalized Method of Moments model. Second, a lower level of economic development of the host country enhances the positive effects of foreign bank ownership on the income, profit and cost of domestic banks. Third, financial development plays an important role in determining the effect of foreign bank ownership. Fourth, while the use of aggregate foreign ownership data may provide us with a big picture, it may not explain why individual banks in the same country perform differently, which this study will answer.     

Financial globalization and its consequences for productive government expenditure

This paper employs a stochastic growth model to study the impact of international financial liberalization on the share of productive government expenditure in GDP. Financial liberalization is specified to take the form of reducing the costs of both lending to, and borrowing from, abroad. This is shown to impinge on the economy through (i) its interaction with the volatility of returns to domestic capital, and (ii) the impact on agents’ allocation of their portfolio across domestic and foreign assets, and its effect on domestic activity. Reduced foreign lending costs tend to divert resources from the domestic economy, requiring the government to compensate by increasing the share of domestic output allocated to productive activity. Reducing borrowing costs have the opposite effects. Empirical evidence, using a dataset of 97 countries over the period 1970 to 2015 provides convincing support for these findings and the underlying mechanism.     

Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans

In a number of countries a substantial proportion of mortgage loans is denominated in foreign currency. In this paper we demonstrate how their presence affects economic policy and agents’ welfare. To this end we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions, where housing loans can be denominated in domestic or foreign currency. The model is calibrated for Poland - a typical small open economy with a large share of foreign currency loans (FCL). We show that the presence of FCLs negatively affects the transmission of monetary policy and deteriorates the output-inflation volatility trade-off it faces. The trade-off can be improved with macroprudential policy but the outcomes are still worse than under this same policy mix applied to an economy with domestic currency debt. We also demonstrate that a high share of FCLs is harmful for social welfare, even if financial stability considerations are not taken into account. Finally, we show that regulatory policies that discriminate against FCLs may have a negative impact on economic activity and discuss the redistributive consequences of forced currency conversion of household debt.     

新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素分析--基于金融脆弱性的视角

在金融全球化的背景下,脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场,导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素,着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证研究结果表明：一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的负影响;金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度,进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率。     

Capital controls,macroprudential regulation,and the bank balance sheet channel

We incorporate a banking sector with balance sheet frictions into a model of a small open economy and compare the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential regulation. We show that the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger than that of macroprudential regulation if the degree of financial friction between domestic banks and foreign investors is high, while the welfare-improving effect of macroprudential regulation is larger than that of capital controls if the degree of financial friction is low. We also show that the welfare ranking of the two policies depends on whether an economy suffers from liability dollarization.