Policy Implications of the Trade and Wages Debate

This paper examines the choice of policies to redistribute income in response to an increase in inequality caused by a rise in the differential wage paid to skilled labor compared with unskilled labor. The main issue is whether the appropriate policy response depends on whether the cause of the increased skill differential is 'trade'—increased competition with low-skilled workers abroad—or technological change. The analysis is conducted within the context of a two-sector Heckscher–Ohlin trade model augmented to allow endogenous determination of the level of skill.     

Trade Agreements and Trade Opportunities: A Flexible Approach for Modeling Australian Export and Import Elasticities

Patterns of trade have changed enormously over the last 30 years, particularly due to the economic emergence of several Asian countries. With the increasing international tendency for bilateral preferential trade agreements, it is important for countries to be aware of trade substitution possibilities. This paper estimates import and export price elasticities for Australia and its major trading partners in Europe and Asia, 1958 to 2002, using a fully flexible version of the Symmetric Normalized Quadratic aggregator function. Imports and exports are disaggregated into six regions, covering 17 countries. Our results illuminate the (changing) substitution and complementarity patterns for Australian foreign trade, highlighting trading opportunities in the face of a changing international environment.     

Transmission of Nominal Exchange Rate Changes to Export Prices and Trade Flows and Implications for Exchange Rate Policy*

We discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass‐through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. We identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household's utility level. We estimate the two parameters for six non‐EMU European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and the UK) using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach.     

工资、出口贸易与全要素生产率:1979-2009

文章使用DEA方法测算了中国1979-2009年各省份的全要素生产率,结果发现全要素生产率的增长偏离工资的增长,这与Madsen和Damania(2001)等人的研究相矛盾。为此,结合中国实际情况,文章从需求引致创新角度对此问题进行了理论分析。在理论分析的基础上,文章利用两步系统广义矩(Two-step system GMM)估计方法控制全要素生产率对工资可能产生的影响后进行了经验分析。结果表明,1979-1997年,工资与全要素生产率的增长基本一致;工资、出口均显著促进全要素生产率的提升;1998-2009年,全要素生产率的增长偏离工资的增长,主要因为我国出口额大幅增加抵消了工资上涨给企业带来的压力,降低了企业的创新动力。     

人民币升值对天津进出口贸易的影响

本文通过对天津口岸进出口商品总值、人民币对主要外币的中间价、天津对外经济合作等相关数据的分析,研究人民币升值对天津进出口贸易的影响及对策.人民币升值对天津进出口贸易产生了较大影响,有利于解决对外贸易的不平衡问题,降低进口商品价格,促使国内企业努力提高产品竞争力.但也将加剧某些领域的竞争,增加外商在华投资成本,利用外资可能呈现逐渐下降局面.为此,应遵循"主动性、可控性和渐进性"原则,不急于调整出口退税政策,以应对升值压力为契机,调整天津的出口结构乃至产业结构.     

考虑港口收费管制的进出口贸易竞争研究

考虑港口的收费管制因素,建立了进出口贸易竞争模型。该模型由一个出口国和两个进口国组成,且各国都拥有一个港口,位于出口国的两家公司均向两个进口国销售商品,并在各个进口国展开市场竞争（古诺竞争或伯川德竞争）,各贸易国的港口根据其是否存在价格管制确定港口收费。针对进出口公司的每种竞争模式,得到了不同的港口收费管制组合下各贸易国的港口收费、港口利润和社会福利,并将竞争均衡结果进行了比较。研究发现： （1）在进出口公司古诺竞争模式下,若三个贸易国的港口都无收费管制（有收费管制）且进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,各贸易国的社会福利和港口利润均更高; （2）在进出口公司伯川德竞争模式下,若进出口产品的差异较大 （小）,则出口国的港口利润主要取决于港口收费 （贸易量）,而进口国恰好相反; （3）当进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,进出口公司在古诺 （伯川德）竞争模式下各贸易国的社会福利、港口利润以及港口使用费都更高。     

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响

汇率是一个国家进行国际活动时最重要的综合性价格指标,汇率变动对国际贸易的平衡和国内经济活动的调节都具有深刻的影响。本文首先从理论上分析汇率变动对对外贸易与吸引外资的影响及具体的传导途径,然后从与人民币汇率联系紧密的进出口贸易及外商直接投资的角度,实证分析人民币汇率变动对它们的影响,以期对我国汇率制度改革、进出口贸易、引进外商直接投资等方面提供有益的借鉴。     

入境旅游与进出口贸易关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国对外贸易和入境旅游获得了快速的发展,统计资料显示两者具有较强的相关性。选取中国与美国、日本、德国、澳大利亚四个旅游和贸易伙伴国,依据1985～2010年的相关统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,对入境旅游与进出口贸易之间的关系进行了分析,结果发现：（1）美国、日本、德国和澳大利亚入境中国客流量,与中国和四国的进口贸易、出口贸易及进出口贸易存在着长期的稳定关系,说明贸易与旅游之间的确存在着协整关系;（2）格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,美国和德国的出口贸易、进出口贸易均促进入境中国旅游的发展,而日本和澳大利亚却是入境旅游推动进口、出口和进出口贸易,这说明了国际旅游与国际贸易之间的关系因国家及发展阶段不同而呈现出复杂性多样的情况;（3）从检验结果可知,我们应更加关注亚洲和澳洲市场,特别是应将中国周边国家作为入境旅游的核心市场进行营销,因为这不仅能促进入境旅游的发展,也能通过旅游的带动作用加快双边贸易额的增长,同时促进我国传统的对外贸易体系和结构向更合理、更稳定的方向迈进。     

人民币升值对中国进出口贸易影响的实证分析

利用汇率改革对中国进口贸易比较有利的契机,对人民币升值背景下中国进出口贸易所受的影响进行实证研究,对于中国进出口贸易路径调整具有一定的现实意义,并可在一定程度上可以缓解人民币升值对出口贸易的压力。     

Disaggregated Earnings and Stock Prices: Evidence from International Listed Shipping Firms

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings from vessel sales on stock prices for international listed shipping firms. The empirical findings show that operating income from vessel sales has a higher power in explaining stock prices than operating earnings only as a sole piece of accounting information for future profitability, investment opportunities, and firm valuation. The testing period is from 2000 to 2009. The methodologies are those of panel cointegration and panel causality tests. The implications are very crucial, since managers may manipulate annual earnings by such non-operating activities.     

云南省进出口贸易地区差异的实证分析

近年来,云南进出口贸易增长迅速,但地区差异比较大.在采用聚类方法将云南省的16个州市进行分类,并对影响地区进出口贸易发展的因素进行了因子分析后,认为影响地区间进出口贸易发展的主要因素是进出口贸易发展的经济和基础条件及产业结构等两个方面,这是形成进出口贸易发展地区差异的主要原因.     

Trade and Wages: a Deeper Investigation

A new presentation of the specific factors model shows how labor fares under international trade by considering how the price elasticity of the nominal wage rate responds to the terms of trade as well as factor endowments. The key empirical implication is that under a standard assumption about tastes it is straightforward to decompose the gains to labor into measurable terms of trade effects and production bias effects. This provides the basis for suggested time series studies contrasting the specific factors model with the Heckscher–Ohlin model. We then perform a new theoretical analysis of the specific factors model to compare how labor fares under autarky and free trade.     

关于我国进出口贸易中的倾销、反倾销问题的研究

文章对我国进出口贸易中的倾销、反倾销问题进行了研究 ,并提出了相关对策与建议。     

Tariffs and Wages in Trade Theory

The theory of production and trade is motivated in large part by the effects of tariffs on wages. General equilibrium models that examine these effects include constant costs, factor proportions, specific factors, imperfect competition and noncompetitive factor market. The present paper reviews the effects of tariffs on wages in small open economies across this broad range of trade theory. From this wide perspective, tariffs support wages only under narrow sets of assumptions. There should be no presumption that tariffs support wages.     

Real Wages,Demand and Employment in the UK 1921–1938: A Disaggregated Analysis

This paper uses the Layard and Nickell model of the labour market to examine the determinants of employment at a sectoral level for the interwar UK economy. Sectoral level data permits examination of the differing responses to changes in the determinants of employment. Estimation of employment functions indicates significant elasticities with respect to aggregate demand variables across a wide range of sectors but less support for a negative real wage effect, particularly in those industries responsible for major losses in employment. The evidence is therefore more consistent with the low-aggregate-demand explanation of labour market behaviour than it is with the high-real-wage hypothesis.     

外商直接投资对我国出口贸易影响的实证分析

根据相关理论,外商直接投资(FDI)有利于东道国比较优势的发挥,进而推动出口总量的增长;而各国实践大多也表明,跨国公司直接投资对东道国出口贸易增长具有促进作用。那么,FDI对我国出口贸易又产生了怎样的影响呢?文章结合我国实情进行了分析。     

A Reconsideration of the Protectionism Debate: Keynes and Import Controls

One of the most important elements of financial crises is the credit restriction that follows and the immediate consequences it has on investment and employment. In the post-Keynesian vision, an exit from economic crises frequently requires increased demand, specifically through public expenditure and employment. Furthermore, it requires the exploration of various policies and institutional reforms that could counteract the credit rationing emerging from the first moments of the financial crisis, particularly in regard to the financing of small business. This is one of the principal lessons this paper explores when studying a sample of Mexican immigrant entrepreneurs in three cities in the United States, and their conditions of survival amid the financial crisis.     

Trade and Wages When the Trade Regime is Determined Endogenously

The paper shows that whether trade is one-way or two-way depends on wage strategies adopted by trade unions. The union's wage strategy choices themselves depend upon the conditions under which trade takes place, as well as upon the characteristics of both the labor and the product markets in the trading countries. Thus, trade and labor market outcomes are determined endogenously. Testable hypotheses are generated, and the implications of the theoretical model for the econometric analysis of trade and wages are discussed.     

Oligopolistic Trade and Competition in Wages Legislations

Wages legislation, or selective enforcement of such legislation, may be used to enhance the competitiveness of domestic firms. We show that, if domestic and foreign firms produce close substitutes and are Bertrand rivals, then wages legislation and enforcement display the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game. Other scenarios are also investigated.
JEL Classification: F13