The office development cycle in London

Summary

The paper examines the main features of the office market and the office development process in London, which is not only the largest office centre in the UK, but also in Europe as a whole. The discussion starts with the main factors which have contributed to the growth of London as a national and international office centre, concentrating in particular upon the main sources of demand for new office building. The cyclical nature of post‐war office development in London is described, illustrated by an examination of the relative trends in investment and development returns from new offices. The impact of the supply cycle upon the organization and funding of development, and upon its scale and location are then discussed, followed by a brief review of the impact of planning policy upon the office market. Finally, there is a review of the current situation at the end of the third post‐war cycle, and an assessment of the likely impact of new office technologies upon the demand for office space in the next development cycle during the late 1980s.     

The political economy of quality measurement: a case study of the USA slaughter cattle market

As agricultural products move from being economic commodities to quality–differentiated goods, price dispersion within specific markets increases and implicit subsidies from high quality producers to low quality producers are removed. The present paper examines how these distributional effects can influence patterns of support and opposition to changes in marketing arrangements. The simple model developed is calibrated using data from the USA slaughter cattle market. Estimates of the impact on prices of measuring quality more accurately are found to be similar in size to previous estimates of market power price suppression in the market.     

Transformation of smallholder beef cattle production in Vietnam

This research describes and analyses how smallholder crop livestock farmers in rural Ea Kar, Vietnam, were able to take advantage of the rising demand for meat in urban centres and transform cattle production from a traditional, extensive grazing system to a more intensive, stall-fed system that supplied quality meat to urban markets. The traditional grazing system produced low-quality animals that could only be sold for local consumption. Introduction of the concept of farm-grown fodder production enabled farmers to produce fatter animals, achieving higher sale prices, and reduce labour inputs by moving from grazing to stall-feeding. These benefits convinced farmers, traders and local government that smallholder cattle production could be a viable enterprise and so stimulated stakeholder interest. Within 10 years, the way that cattle were produced and marketed changed considerably. By 2010, more than 3,000 smallholders had adopted farm-grown forages and stall-feeding, and many produced high-quality beef cattle. Traders had been able to develop access to urban markets as farmers were able to produce animals that satisfied the stringent quality requirements of urban markets. In addition to the underlying driver of strong market demand for quality meat, several factors contributed to this transition: (i) a convincing innovation – the use of farm-grown fodder – that provided immediate benefits to farmers and provided a vision for local stakeholders; (ii) a participatory, systems-oriented innovation process that emphasised capacity strengthening; (iii) a value chain approach that linked farmers and local traders to markets; (iv) the formation of a loosely structured coalition of local stakeholders that facilitated and managed the innovation process; and (v) technical support over a sufficiently long time period to allow innovation processes to become sustainable.     

Profitability,efficiency and comparative advantage of African cattle meat and milk production: the case of trypanotolerant village cattle production

Trypanosomiasis is a major constraint to increased food production in Africa as it limits livestock production and mixed farming over an area of 10 million km². The use of African trypanotolerant breeds of cattle is one approach to control trypanosomiasis that is being given increasing attention. This paper examines under what circumstances trypanotolerant village cattle enterprises can be economically viable in regions of origin and areas of introduction. On-going production is analysed in four countries using cost-benefit analyses. Comparative advantage and subsidies received are also estimated. Results indicate that resources for trypanotolerant cattle production are efficiently allocated as the sector has a comparative advantage and contributes effectively to the national welfare. Financial returns to producers are attractive and by comparing social and private prices important constraints are identified to improve profitability.     

A monthly price forecasting Model for cattle and calves

Fluctuations in cattle and calf prices are examined in this study, using monthly data for Canada, for thaperiod 1958 to 1976. Prices for live animals along with wholesale and retail level prices were analyzed. Live cattle prices were. furthermore, studied by type of animals – finished steers, COWS, heifers, feeder steers and calves. The model is formulated on the hypothesis that wholesale prices of beef and veal are first discovered at the wholesale level and live animal and retail prices are then derived from the wholesale prices. Among the live animal prices, price of finished steers was hypothesized to be the price leader, whereas the other live animal prices were determined by it. The wholesale beef price was found to be highly supply flexible (the coefficient being - 1.836), but this was not the case with veal. The flexibility coefficient for live steer (finished) prices with respect to wholesale prices was 0.925. Similarly, the flexibility coefficients for heifer and cow prices with respect to finished steer prices were 0.923 and 0.846. respectively. This suggests that the opportunity cost of females in the breeding herd helps determine the spread between their prices and those of finished steers. Despite the inclusion of economic variables, the study concluded that cyclical fluctuations remained. L'auteur examine dans cette etude les fluctuations des prix bovins et des veaux en utilisant des donnks mensuelles pour la ptriode 1958–1976. Les prix des animaux vivants ainsi que les prix de gros et de detail ont tte analyses dans cette h d e. En outre, l'auteur a entrepris une analyse des prix pour chaque categorie d'animaw – bouvillons A I'engrais. vaches, gtnisses, bouvillons A engraisser et veaux. Le modble explicatif sous-jacent a ttk construit selon I'hypothhe que les prix de gros des veaux et des boeufs s'ktablissaient d'abord sur le march6 de gros. puis les prix des autres animaux vivants et de detail Ctaient ensuite dtduits de ce dernier prix. On a constatt que le prix de gros du boeuf Ctait sensible A toute variation de I'offre (le coefficient ttant & gal A 1,836). Le cas du veau est tout A fait different. Le coefficient de flexibititk pour les prix des bouvillons vivants (A engraisser) par rapport au prix de gros etait tgal A0.925. De la msme facon, les coefficients de flexibilitk du prix des vaches et du prix des gknisses par rapport au prix des bouvillons A l'engrah ttaient respectivement tgaux A 0,923 et 0.846. Ce fait suggbre que le c6ut d'opportunitk des vaches dans le troupeau reproducteur aide A determiner la difference de prix entre les prix des vaches et genisses d'une'part et celui des bouvitlons B l'engrais d'autre part. MalgrC l'inclusion de variables konomiques pertinentes, I'ttude a rtvkle une persistance des fluctuations cycliques.     

Managing economic risk in value-based marketing of fed cattle

This research investigates optimal price risk management strategies for fed cattle producers engaged in grid pricing. Stochastic simulation is used to determine optimal hedge ratios for fed cattle priced on a live weight basis or on a series of grids that vary in terms of premium/discount structure as well as base price. Results indicate that the optimal hedging strategy is greatly affected by the base price used in a particular grid. This has significant implications for pricing efficiency in the cattle market. Base prices that are linked more closely with downstream markets offer the potential to improve pricing efficiency; however, the risk associated with these prices is difficult to manage effectively with existing futures instruments.     

Asymmetric information in cattle auctions: the problem of revaccinations

We analyze the problem of asymmetric information between buyers and sellers in cattle auctions, using the problem of revaccinations as the point of departure. We present a simple model to show that if buyers do not know and cannot verify whether sellers have vaccinated their animals, then they may consider revaccination. Revaccination is only a part of the broader problem of information asymmetry that includes other quality issues and costs that can be saved, thereby affecting the welfare of both buyers and sellers. We consider structural characteristics of ranching, traditions, and consumers' preferences as well as proposals regarding third‐party certification to argue that the problem of asymmetric information in cattle auctions is a persistent one. We also argue for a comprehensive empirical study of the incidence and impacts of buyer revaccination.     

Land speculation and interest rate subsidies as a cause of deforestation: The role of cattle ranching in Costa Rica

Land speculation by cattle ranchers is considered a principal cause of deforestation in Latin America, in particular in combination with (previously) widely provided interest rate subsidies. Proof for the hypothesis that land speculation leads to inflated rates of investment in land is, however, relatively limited and invariably related to the question of whether land prices tend to rise over time. Based on the Neoclassical investment theory with adjustment costs we develop a stochastic cattle ranching model in which land prices are modelled as geometric Brownian motion, to evaluate the effect of expected fluctuations in land prices on land investment decisions by cattle ranchers in Latin America. For a case study in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica, results show that the expected rate of investment is almost 35% underestimated in case land prices are assumed constant instead of fluctuating according to the standard deviation, while abolition of interest rate subsidies leads to an almost 15% decrease in the expected rate of investment. Consequently, it is shown that variability in land prices alone is a sufficient condition for land speculation, inflated rates of investment in land, larger farm sizes and, thus, higher rates of deforestation in agrarian frontier areas, while this process is further promoted by subsidized livestock credit or any other form of agricultural subsidy that increases the marginal production value of land.     

Risk and marketing behavior: pricing fed cattle on a grid

A seven‐year comparative study of grid pricing versus average pricing of slaughter cattle was conducted to evaluate carcass quality market signals. The primary objectives of the study are to determine: (1) if market signals sent through the grid pricing system indicate an improvement in the grid incentive mechanism over time, (2) how changes in the grid premium and discount structure associated with carcass quality affect the market risk premium, and (3) if changes in price risk (variance) affect producer marketing decisions. An Exponential‐Autoregressive‐Conditional‐Heteroskedasticity‐in‐Mean (EARCH‐in‐Mean) modeling procedure was adopted. Empirical results suggest that the grid premium and discount structure is slowly adjusting carcass quality market signals to encourage marketing on a grid and discourage marketing by the pen. The inclusion of the conditional variance in the empirical model indicates that variance associated with the carcass quality risk premium adds financial risk associated with the adoption of grid pricing.     

Canadian dairy policy and the returns to federal dairy cattle research

The economic surplus approach is used to estimate the returns to federal investments in dairy cattle research in Canada. A national supply function is estimated using time series data. Lagged research expenditures are included as explanatory variables in the model, facilitating the calculation of ***marginal as well as average benefits from research. Simulation analysis is used to study the effects of product market distortions associated with Canadian dairy policy as well as of the marginal excess burden on the rates of return to research and on the distribution of research benefits. Returns were found to be high at the margin. Distortions in the product market had a small effect on the overall returns to dairy cattle research but had a large impact on the distribution of research benefits. Rate of return estimates were found to be indicative of underinvestment even when the marginal excess burden was taken into account.     

湿地土壤氮素循环的研究进展

本文主要介绍了湿地土壤氮素的输入、氮素转化、输出、土壤微生物及其在氮转化中的作用、湿地土壤氮素转化相关酶及湿地氮素转化模型方面的研究,探讨了湿地氮素生物地球化学过程的产生机制,并剖析了湿地氮素转化过程所产生的潜在生态效应。     

贫信息下海洋经济周期波动监测预警:景气指标归类

论文阐述了国内外经济周期波动理论的发展历程,指出了海洋经济周期波动监测预警研究的迫切性,证明了灰色系统理论是研究贫信息下的海洋经济景气指标归类难点问题的有效方法,并使用该方法对从海洋经济总量、海洋经济结构、海洋经济效益和海洋经济可持续性四个方面构建的包含27个指标的指标体系进行了实证分析,得到我国海洋经济景气指标的先行、同步以及滞后指标,为海洋经济周期波动监测预警的进一步研究奠定了基础。