货币政策报告的“弦外之音”

近日,中国央行发布了第二季度货币政策执行报告,为下一阶段的货币政策确定了基调,即“坚定不移地继续落实适度宽松的货币政策,根据国内外经济走势和价格变化,注重运用市场化手段进行动态微调。”但短期内央行在“适度宽松”和“动态微调”之间,究竟会如何取舍和操作,仍是一团迷雾。     

资本迷局——流向之变

在经历了新兴市场债市十年的稳定资金流入之后,人们应当对一段时期的资金流出做好准备,“尽管周期性的机会将来来去去,但新兴市场结构性的高收益时代很可能结束了0”     

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE: SOME NEW EVIDENCE

Using a general autoregressive distributed lag model, we estimate the longrun steady state determinants of corporate capital structure. We find that, in the long run, the leverage ratio is related positively to the corporate tax rate and firm size and negatively to future growth opportunities and stock returns. By contrast, there appears to be no relation between leverage and the corporate tax rate on a short-run year to year basis. Our results suggest that prior empirical evidence on capital structure is of questionable value precisely because of its failure to clearly separate the short-run relationship between leverage and its determinants from its long-run relationship.     

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND MULTINATIONALITY: EVIDENCE FROM CAPITAL STRUCTURE CHANGES

I examine shareholder valuation effects of capital structure changes for multinational (MNC) and domestic (DC) corporations. The internalization theory of foreign direct investment posits that MNCs create value by internalizing the market for their assets across national borders. If the financing decision is related to the rents from future investments, MNCs may have differential valuation effects to capital structure changes vis-à-vis DCs. I find that MNCs have lower (greater) excess returns for debt-for-equity (equity-for-debt) exchanges than DCs. The cross-sectional analyses show that the valuation effects are differentially related to the investment opportunities of MNCs and DCs.     

THE GROWTH OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE: MANAGER VERSUS SHAREHOLDER OBJECTIVES

Utilizing a geometric mean wealth maximization approach, this paper shows potential differences between the capital structure preferred by stockholders and the one preferred by managers. In general, managers may prefer more conservative, equity-oriented financing, while stockholders desire greater financial leverage. The problem arises because of differences in the degree of portfolio diversification achieved by managers and stockholders. Stockholders tend to have reasonably well-diversified portfolios, causing them to be concerned with systematic risk. Managers' portfolios are apt to be more concentrated and directly tied to the financial success of an employer, causing managers to be concerned with total risk. Thus, for a given capital structure, each party views the firm as having a different level of risk. Several executive compensation plans are considered that might more closely align the interests of managers and stockholders.     

EVIDENCE THAT GREATER DISCLOSURE LOWERS THE COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL

The effect of corporate disclosure on the cost of equity capital is a matter of considerable interest and importance to both corporations and the investment community. However, the relationship between disclosure level and cost of capital is not well established and has proved difficult for researchers to quantify. As described in this article, the author's 1997 study (published in The Accounting Review) was the first to measure and detect a direct relationship between disclosure and cost of capital. After examining the annual reports of 122 manufacturing companies, the author concluded that companies providing more extensive disclosure had a lower (forward‐looking) cost of equity capital (measured using Value Line forecasts with an EBO valuation formula that derives from the dividend discount model). For companies with extensive analyst coverage, differences in disclosure do not appear to affect cost of capital. But for companies with small analyst followings, differences in disclosure do appear to matter. Among this group of companies, the firms judged to have the highest level of disclosure had a cost of equity capital that was nine‐percentage points lower than otherwise similar firms with a minimal level of disclosure. Closer analysis of some of the specific disclosure practices also suggests that, for small firms with limited analyst coverage, there are benefits to providing more forward‐looking information, such as forecasts of sales, profits, and capital expenditures, and enhanced disclosure of key non‐financial statistics, such as order backlogs, market share, and growth in units sold. In closing, the article also discusses an interesting new study (by Lang and Lundholm) that suggests there is an important distinction between effective corporate disclosure and “hyping the stock.” The findings of this study show that while higher levels of disclosures are associated with higher stock prices, sudden increases in the frequency of disclosure are viewed with skepticism.     

科技向善:平台和资本才有最好的模样

站在两个一百年历史交汇点,中国已经成为全球最大的消费互联网大国、最大的制造业大国,此时我们多么渴望平台经济和资本向善,引领科技创新反哺实体经济,构筑起中国在制造业领域新的竞争优势,实现更高的效率、更低的成本、更快的响应。