Asymmetric cultural discounting and pattern of trade in cultural products: Empirical evidence in motion pictures

We extend the seminal home market effect model of Helpman and Krugman (Market structure and foreign trade, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1985) by incorporating asymmetric cultural discounting. In addition to the home market effect, our model predicts that a country subject to a relatively lower cultural discount factor becomes a net exporter as trade liberalisation accelerates. Using international box office revenues in the motion picture industry and developing a measure of asymmetric cultural discount based on tourist‐arrival statistics, we find empirical support for this hypothesis. Our model provides an explanation for the continued cultural dominance of smaller English‐speaking countries in larger non‐English‐speaking countries, which cannot be explained by the home market effect alone.     

金融危机条件下我国服务贸易发展分析

尽管受到全球金融危机的影响,2008年世界服务贸易仍保持强劲的增长势头。目前我国服务业和服务贸易的发展呈现出传统服务贸易行业出口增速放缓、服务贸易逆差规模反弹等特点。我国政府应继续加大政策支持力度,建立完善的金融体系,积极拓宽服务贸易领域,分散风险,积极发展服务外包产业。     

金融危机以后的国际贸易新摩擦——基于产业结构视角

金融危机以来,新贸易保护主义抬头,遭遇贸易摩擦的同时也应该看到,国外对我过发起的反倾销调查已经从轻工、化工等原料型产品逐渐扩展到高附加值产品,这说明我国高附加值产品在竞争中正在不断提升,中国的产业升级对中西方产业机构对比已经开始产生影响。对此人们往往容易从各国对外贸易政策或法规本身去寻找原因和对策,然而本文强调从深层次分析贸易摩擦的原因,把产业结构的优化战略思想用于分析国际贸易摩擦,为中国对外贸易的顺利发展和经济的持续增长作出一些建议。在应对国际贸易摩擦中,不应保持规避的态度,要以积极的态度看待摩擦,贸易摩擦不一定是坏事。每次金融危机都伴随着产业结构的升级、中国的产业结构单一,对外依存度高,要充分利用好这次机会,做好产业优化升级的重要一步,要把握好贸易摩擦的指导作用,借此时机反思中国的产业结构,为进一步的优化产业结构提供依据。     

浙江10地市的出口贸易为何如此不同——对浙江1997～2006年贸易发展影响因素的实证分析

2007～2008年爆发的美国金融危机对我国对外贸易大省浙江造成了严重影响,然而同为浙江模式的各地市的受影响程度却存在着巨大差别。本文通过针对浙江10个地市1997～2006年贸易发展影响因素的实证分析发现,决定浙江对外贸易发展的因素更多地表现为GDP产值、固定资产投资和工业投资,而较少地表现为对外资的严重依赖。这意味着,应对这次金融危机最好的办法不是提高对外资的依赖度,而更主要地应在于通过增加固定资产投资提高其工业的竞争力。     

Trade Policies in Southeast Asia in the Wider Asian Perspective

This paper takes stock of trade policies in Southeast Asia after the Asian crisis and in the wake of the current global economic crisis. It compares trade policies in individual Southeast Asian countries; places them in the context of regional and global economic integration; and particularly draws implications for the region from the rise of China and India. The first section looks at recent trade and FDI patterns in Southeast Asia. Then follows an overview of key trade‐policy trends, in the region overall and in individual countries. The next sections examine ASEAN countries in international trade negotiations and agreements: first in the WTO, especially in the Doha Round; then within ASEAN; and finally on cross‐regional FTAs. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries cannot rely on external tracks ‘from above’ for meaningful trade policy reform. Since the Asian crisis there has been a slowdown of reform momentum, and too much reliance on trade negotiations – especially FTAs. Rather, countries in the region have to rely on themselves –‘from below’ as it were. The engine of liberalisation and regulatory reform has to be home‐driven – as it was before the Asian crisis – with governments taking unilateral measures in response to internal and external conditions.     

新技术性贸易壁垒对辽宁出口贸易的影响及行业协会对策

自金融危机以来,为了保护本国市场和贸易利益,技术性贸易壁垒被各国在贸易中广泛采用,并且出现了一些前所未有的新动向和新特点。通过研究主要贸易伙伴国技术性贸易壁垒的新动向和新特点,客观地分析新技术性贸易壁垒对辽宁出口贸易产生的影响,并且从辽宁行业协会角度给出了行之有效的对策建议。     

Thai Trade Policy: From Non‐discriminatory Liberalisation to FTAs

FTAs have dominated Thai trade policy recently, reflecting the general trend in east Asia. But they also reflect domestic political changes, especially the decision‐making style of the Thaksin government. Thai FTAs have become very politicised. In particular, the US‐Thai FTA negotiations have run into a storm of domestic protest. The first section of the paper surveys the national trade‐policy framework. It highlights the slowdown of unilateral trade and FDI liberalisation after the Asian crisis, though a descent back into protectionism was successfully resisted. Thailand punches well below its weight in the WTO, and not very forcefully in ASEAN, because political attention and negotiating resources have switched to FTAs. The second section identifies the main actors in Thai trade policy, and briefly describes the trade‐policy decision‐making process as well as recent developments during the Thaksin administration. The following central section deals with Thailand's FTAs. These have been driven by vague foreign‐policy goals, while credible economic strategy has been lacking. The residual commercial logic is narrowly mercantilist and ‘trade‐light’, seeking an exchange of concessions in a narrow range of sectors rather than comprehensive, trade‐creating FTAs. Weak and partial FTAs are the result. The sole exception has been the Thailand‐USA FTA negotiations, as the USA wants a strong, deep‐integration FTA. However, negotiations were suspended in 2006 in the wake of the Thai political crisis. Overall, Thai trade policy post‐Asian crisis is highly unbalanced. It stands on a shaky FTA leg, while the other WTO leg has gone to sleep and the ASEAN arm is limp. Above all, core unilateral liberalisation and related regulatory reform are lacking.     

辽宁省服务外包企业在金融危机中加速发展的对策

受国际金融危机影响,2009年我国进出口贸易都有所下降,而服务贸易却不降反升,辽宁省服务外包产业更是获得＂井喷式＂发展,这与辽宁省良好的基础设施以及产业基础、政府与企业的共同努力是分不开的。在金融危机条件下,辽宁省服务外包企业应转危为机,充分发挥辽宁省的区位优势,积极开展服务外包招商引资,加速企业并购重组,实现规模化经营战略,在逆境中持续、快速、健康发展。     

The financial crisis and trade—key impacts,interactions, and outcomes

The international financial crisis has been felt acutely in international trade. This article looks at the extent of the fall in trade and its impacts in major world exporters and sectors of industry. The article finds that the effects of the crisis have been far from homogeneous, with certain sectors more heavily impacted than others. In particular, electronics and transport equipment have seen large falls in trade, with base metals and machinery also strongly affected. Furthermore, certain countries have seen greater impacts than others. In particular, China saw relatively lower falls in trade than the other countries covered, contributing to an increase in the emerging world's share of global trade. Finally, the article looks at two key elements hypothesized as motors of the extensive trade fall—the fragmentation of production and the contraction in trade finance. It finds evidence that both were important to the impacts of the crisis on trade, although falls in GDP were the main driver. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

后金融危机时代转变我国对外贸易增长方式的对策分析

后金融危机时代,我国对外贸易发展面临的困难是：对外贸易集中度过高,出口的脆弱性大;贸易保护主义抬头,贸易摩擦增加;人民币有效汇率升值,抑制了国外对我国商品的进口需求;能源及制造业原材料价格上升,出口产品成本增加;服务贸易相对落后,新型服务业发育不良等。我国应尽快转变外贸易增长方式,即加快优化进出口市场结构,推行市场多元化战略;转变思维方式保持进出口平衡;发展服务贸易,完善出口商品结构;适应世界贸易低碳化要求,促进出口贸易多元化发展。     

The great trade collapse and the Spanish export miracle: Firm‐level evidence from the crisis

We provide novel evidence on the microstructure of international trade during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession by exploring a rich firm‐level data set from Spain. The focus of our analysis is on changes at the extensive and intensive firm‐level margins of trade, as well as on performance differences (jobs, productivity and firm survival) across firms that differ in their export status. We find no adverse effects of the financial crisis on foreign market entry or exit, but a considerable increase in the export intensity of firms after the financial crisis. Moreover, we find that exporters were more resilient to the crisis than non‐exporters. Finally, while exporters showed a significantly more favourable development of total factor productivity after 2009 than non‐exporters, aggregate productivity declined substantially in a large number of industries in Spanish manufacturing. We also briefly explore two factors that might help explain the surprisingly strong export performance of Spain in the aftermath of the great trade collapse: improved aggregate competitiveness due to internal and external devaluation and a substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales at the firm level.     

金融危机影响服务外包产业发展的传导机制及我国的对策

金融危机对服务外包产业产生了重要影响,传导机制主要包括需求传导机制、价格传导机制、汇率传导机制、贸易政策传导机制、资金链传导机制、产业链传导机制6个方面。我国服务外包产业受冲击较小,除自身具有多方面比较优势外,在某种程度上也与处于产业发展初级阶段有关。成本优势是现阶段产业竞争力的主要来源,加快发展和提升水平的关键在于实现从成本导向向价值导向的转变。     

两次金融危机下我国能源国际贸易的比较分析

当1998年亚洲金融危机已经逐渐脱离人们关注之时,时隔10年,2007年美国次贷危机爆发,以迅雷不及掩耳之势蔓延到全球。2008年,此次金融危机在世界范围内愈演愈烈,波及数个领域。能源产业也未能逃过此劫。我国是一个能源消费大国,随着我国经济的快速发展,对石油、煤和天然气的需求也逐渐增加,同时能源的对外依存度也不断提高。当前金融危机对能源企业,尤其是石油行业的影响巨大,对其产量、价格和进出口贸易等都产生了深刻影响。石油作为国家的一种非常重要的战略储备,关系国计民生。因此,当前经济背景下,我国石油产业如何在"危"中寻找"机",积极开展新一轮的能源国际贸易,对于推进石油产业和整个能源产业的发展具有重要意义。本文通过将当前经济形势对我国能源的国际贸易带来的影响与10年前亚洲金融危机的背景进行对比,揭示本轮金融危机下我国能源国际贸易面临的挑战与机遇。     

国际经济调整中的民营企业走出去战略思考

在经济危机导致各国贸易保护势头日益强化的情况下,我国产品试图通过贸易的方式继续进入美国及其他国家市场,将会变得异常困难。同时,资本及产业输入和输出比例的严重失衡,也让国际资本挤占了国际市场的盈利空间。借助本次危机所形成的国际经济结构调整与洗牌,企业要将直接出口面临的挑战转变为对外直接投资的机遇,这是转型时期企业发展的最佳选择。企业在"走出去"的过程中,要注意抓住特殊时期对企业投资的有利因素,规避各种风险,选择好对外投资的主体、渠道、领域及对象,逐步完成出口为主向出口和投资双向驱动为主的战略转变。     

The Asymmetric Effect of Endowments on Vertical Intra‐industrial Trade

(1238) J. Milgram‐Baleix and Ana I. Moro‐Egido This paper investigates the determinants of vertical Spanish intra‐industry trade with developed and developing countries. We empirically test the comparative advantage explanation. To do so, we build physical, human and technological capital stocks. On average, when using OLS techniques, differences in endowments are a limitation for vertical intra‐industry trade. Using quantile regression techniques, we observe that this negative effect decreases in absolute terms as vertical intra‐industry trade flows increase and, in some cases, the impact becomes positive for the upper tails, thus supporting the view of a reduced version of the comparative advantage explanation. Our results provide interesting insights into Spain and emerging countries. A large part of Spanish trade already takes place on an inter‐industry basis or consists of exporting low quality products in exchange for similar products of a higher quality range, in particular with European countries but more surprisingly with emerging countries. Our study shows that high quality exports and horizontal intra‐industry trade are mainly driven by proximities of demand and technological capital while low quality exports share most determinants of inter‐industry trade.     

Global strategy gone astray: Maersk's big box boats and the world shipping industry

A.P. Moller‐Maersk Group (A.P. Moller‐Mærsk AS in Danish), commonly known as Maersk, is the world's largest global shipping conglomerate from Denmark and carries a rich history and corporate heritage in the industry. The company operates large container ships which are mostly known as “big box boats” in the industry. By using interdisciplinary literature and the shipping industry's operational routes and corporate developments, this case‐based research analyzes and discusses Maersk's internationalization and its global strategies. Although Maersk aggressively sought internationalization and company‐specific expansion, its global strategy and international expansion areas have encountered problems because of the slowdown of the global economy, de‐globalization, and the U.S.–China trade tussle. The case‐based research analyzes and discusses these issues within the areas of international business and the company's global strategies and industry‐specific competition. Analysts and industry observers believe that Maersk will continue to be a major shipping and logistics firm and will thrive in global markets. At the same time, the company will be impacted by the changing competition, regulatory forces, and new technologies in logistics and global shipping. This case study also provides future developments and growth prospects of Maersk and the shipping industry.     

Inter‐Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

The paper discusses the main features that distinguish inter‐firm international trade finance from alternative sources of financing and evaluates the potential effects of a financial crisis on the use of this form of financing for firms operating in developing countries. It argues that, on the one hand, inter‐firm trade finance could help overcome informational problems associated with other lending relationships, but, on the other, it may contribute to propagate shocks because of the interconnection among firms along credit chains. While these advantages could remain largely unexploited because of poor legal institutions, the disadvantages could be exacerbated because of these firms’ greater exposure to a default chain. Based on these arguments, a menu of choices is identified for policymakers to boost firms’ access to inter‐firm trade finance in times of crisis.     

WTO贸易救济制度的政治经济学分析

在当前金融危机的背景下,反倾销、反补贴、保障措施等贸易救济措施的贸易保护性质在实践中不断得到加强,并已演变成为重要的贸易保护工具和维护国内特定产业利益的有效手段,其矫正作用已经被扭曲了。本文运用新政治经济学的"公共选择"理论探讨了WTO贸易救济政策供给的动因,揭示了目前国外对我国实施贸易救济措施的政治经济原因。     

What Would Normalisation of Economic Relations Between Mashrek Countries,Turkey and Israel Imply?

This article examines the potential for economic cooperation among Mashrek countries, Turkey and Israel in the fields of trade in goods and services both separately and across‐field. It first describes the macroeconomic features of the region and then estimates the overall potential for inter‐industry trade in goods by estimating gravity equations for each country separately and the potential for intra‐industry trade using Grubel‐Lloyd indices. The article also examines the potential for trade in specific services, namely information and computer technology, transport, financial and health services.     

广东加工贸易企业转型升级发展战略

加工贸易是推动广东经济增长的重要力量,由于全球金融危机等原因,广东加工贸易所依赖的外部环境发生了较大变化,广东加工贸易企业依靠劳动力要素的比较优势已不能适应经济发展的需要,必须通过提高产品的技术含量,提升产品的附加值,延长产业链,优化加工贸易产业结构等途径转型升级以取得竞争优势,提升广东加工贸易企业的国际竞争力。