世界经济复苏阶段的新风险——主权债务增长与危机

在国际金融危机和经济衰退期间,各经济体采取了扩张性的财政政策和货币政策。反危机措施虽然阻止了经济"自由落体式"的下滑,但使发达经济体和一些新兴经济体的公共债务大为膨胀。希腊主权债务危机只是"冰山一角"。欧洲的主权信用风险和危机正在蔓延和扩散,削弱了欧盟、欧元区的凝聚力及欧元的吸引力,并影响到世界经济的复苏。亚洲新兴经济体应从希腊主权债务危机中汲取教训和警示,在经济复苏、增长与实施反周期措施之间,寻找"两难选择"的平衡点。     

希腊债务危机及其对世界经济复苏的冲击

2010年2月初以来,希腊等国的债务危机开始进入人们的视野,并引发欧盟金融市场震荡。希腊等国的债务危机具有重要的历史原因和传染效应,它不仅源于财政赤字过高,而且缺乏独立的货币政策,但最根本的原因是希腊的经济失去了"生产性"。我国应未雨绸缪,提早做好准备,主动积极应对希腊等国的主权债务危机。     

Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Judge,the Vultures and Creditor Rights

What role did the US courts play in the Argentine debt swap of 2005? What implications does this have for the future of creditor rights in sovereign bond markets? The Judge in the Argentine case has, it appears, deftly exploited creditor heterogeneity – between ‘holdouts’ seeking capital gains and institutional investors wanting a settlement – to promote a swap with a supermajority of creditors. Our analysis of Argentine debt litigation reveals a ‘Judge‐mediated’ sovereign debt restructuring which resolves key issues of Transition and Aggregation – two of the tasks envisaged for the IMF's stillborn Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism. For the future, we discuss how Judge‐mediated sovereign debt restructuring (together with creditor committees) could complement Collective Action Clauses in sovereign bond contracts.     

通过债转股解决养老保险基金隐性债务

深入分析了养老保险基金隐性债务的成因、国有股减持与养老保险基金入市的关系 ,提出了债转股的方法。通过该方法 ,不仅可以解决养老金隐性债务问题 ,同时也能达到国有股减持的其他主要目的。     

Industrial Restructuring and Economic Growth

The last two decades have been a period of structural change in industrialised countries. The extent of this restructuring process has been different across countries and industries, though. In this paper we investigate the effect of lagging behind in the process of downsizing and deconcentration. We find empirical evidence of industries that experienced only little downsizing when compared internationally to experience less subsequent growth, on average. However, this effect is industry-dependent and its magnitude depends upon whether firm or establishment data are used. Technologically advanced industries are found to be particularly sensitive to (lack of) restructuring.     

集团内债务重组业务的合并抵销

在《企业会计制度》中,没有规定在编制合并报表时企业集团发生债务重组业务合并抵销方法,而实践中集团内债务重组合并会计报表抵销时点问题却时有发生。实施合并会计报表抵销处理,可采取以低于债务账面价值的现金清偿债务时的合并报表抵销以非现金资产抵偿债务时的合并报表抵销、以债务转为资本时合并的抵销及修改其他债务条件的合并报表抵销等多种方法,并把握债务重组的形成,使其符合债务重组业务合并抵销处理原则要求。     

债转股中的道德风险与防范机制

在全面概括、分析了债转股中可能出现的道德风险的表现、危害及成因的基础上,从法律制度、配套措施、约束机制、企业制度等方面探讨了债转股道德风险防范机制,这对降低债转股中的道德风险、促进债转股工作的顺利进行将起到积极的作用。     

对混合性债务重组会计处理的思考——关于完善债务重组准则的建议

混合性债务重组,由于涉及两种或两种以上方式的组合,所以其会计处理较为复杂,不易理解,由此 引发人们对债务重组准则中相关内容一致性的思考,要特别注重第二种混合性债务重组的会计处理,进一步 完善我国的债务重组准则。     

Managerial Opportunism and Capital Structure Adjustments: Equity–for–debt Swap and Convertible Debt

This paper shows how capital structure adjustments through an equity–for–debt swap and convertible debt can resolve the inefficiency caused by managerial opportunism. We consider a situation in which a corporate manager's investment decision is affected by the firm's debt level. Although both an equity–for–debt swap and convertible debt can induce the self–interested manager to undertake only value–increasing projects through capital structure adjustments, there exists a significant difference between these two financial instruments. An equity–for–debt swap, which requires the agreement of both shareholders and debt holders, can change a firm's debt level only prior to the manager's investment decision. On the other hand, convertible debt, which gives debt holders a unilateral right to convert, can change a firm's debt level even after the manager's investment decision.     

债务重组对上市公司财务管理所产生效应分析

<正>2006年2月,财政部正式颁布了《企业会计准则——债务重组》,这是为规范会计核算,提高会计信息质量而采取的又一项重要措施,新《债务重组》会计准则的实施,对于整个上市公司群体有着重要影响。2010年财政部在     

Economic Restructuring and HRM in Hong Kong

This article discusses the human resource implications of' business readjustment and advances in Hong Kong as its economy is restructured into a post-industrial centre of tertiary service industries. Corporate reforms are benchmarked against Western practices of exploring flexibilities and competitiveness which emphasize labour performance and cost savings. However, job security does not appear to have been eroded, possibly betraying an Oriental importance placed upon trust and commitment between employer and employee. As a meeting-place where Eastern and Western cultural practices interface, Hong Kong probably remains economically resilient by keeping its normative and institutional permissiveness in a hybrid mix of Western and Oriental practices.     

相机性政策、公共债务与经济复苏:来自中国的证据

本文利用1992年第一季度到2009年第四季度的数据,用久期模型分析了相机性财政和货币政策对我国经济走出1992-2009年间四次衰退的作用。结果表明,相机性财政政策和货币政策的协调组合对我国经济走出衰退具有比较显著的正向作用,这两类政策的积极实施可以使经济复苏的概率分别提高21%和13%。但是,公共债务水平的上升会削弱相机性政策协调对经济走出衰退的刺激作用,特别是会严重制约积极财政政策的可持续性。     

我国新《债务重组准则》实施过程中存在的问题及对策探讨

当前,在《债务重组准则》实施过程中存在着公允价值的运用、重组收益及“财务困难”的界定等问题。其解决对策是：加强证口监管部门对上市公司的监管;对债务重组准则进行完善;规范关联交易披露;优化内部会计环境;建立相应的独立中介机构;提高会计人员综合素质,尽快适应新准则。     

Economic Policies and Reforms n Era of Debt

During the financial crisis of the past three years, central banks and governments around the world have adopted of prompt, decisive and innovative measures to settle down the world economy. With these policies, the market conditions tend to improve, though some countries troubled by deficits and structural problems. If we look again at past three years, what most impressed us was that how little we knew when to make a choice from different policies.     

Basic Needs,Government Debt and Economic Growth

This paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output, health, nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous. We find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change, but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition. There are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels. There are strong self‐reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty, making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation. Channelling resources towards improving health, education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 is the biggest, boldest countercyclical fiscal stimulus in American history. What is its likely impact? Current econometric models indicate that a tax cut is likely to have a multiplier of about 1.0 and that spending has a multiplier of about 1.6 after about 18 months. Even the most sophisticated econometric analysis, however, suffers from “omitted variable” bias. In trying to take account of this, David Romer and I have found that the tax multiplier is more likely to be around two to three; and we suspect that the spending multiplier is correspondingly higher than the conventional estimates. Of course, every recession is different. The unique factors of this recession are analyzed to determine whether the multipliers are likely to deviate from historical averages.     

Economic Policies and Reforms in Era of Debt

During the financial crisis of the past three years,central banks and governments around the world have adopted of prompt,decisive and innovative measures to settle down the world economy.With these policies,the market conditions tend to improve,though some countries troubled by deficits and structural problems.     

公共债务、财政可持续性与经济增长

各国为应对全球金融危机纷纷出台扩张性财政政策刺激经济复苏,这种导致政府债台高筑的财政政策影响着财政的可持续性,也影响着经济稳定增长.以中国数据进行的实证检验表明:长期低水平的基本赤字对经济增长产生较强的促进作用,且其经济增长效应与公共债务水平息息相关,二者呈倒U型关系,并存在一个最优组合关系.因此,在实行扩张性财政政策刺激经济增长的过程中,应该维持合理的赤字水平与国债规模,以保证财政的可持续性,有效发挥财政政策促进经济稳定增长的作用.