国家贸易保护政策的聚类分析

由于全球经济增长的压力,各国有利用各种政策干预贸易的可能,本文通过对各国的有关贸易政策的考察,选择了15个国家,对其贸易保护状况进行了聚类分析和结构分析,发现中国香港和台湾地区开放度最高,保护强度最低,美国、欧盟等一些国家保护强度较低,日本、中国、印度保护强度较高,俄罗斯保护强度最高。     

美国对华贸易歧视政策及原因剖析

入世以来,中国对美贸易快速增长,中美贸易摩擦不断升温,为了限制中国产品进入美国市场,美国对华实施了歧视性贸易政策,同时成为美国实施贸易救济政策最多的国家,对我国的对外贸易发展产生了很大的负面影响,文章就美国对华歧视性贸易政策及实施原因做出分析.     

Dispute Settlement at the WTO: Impacts of a No Deal in the US‐Brazil Cotton Dispute

On the day before Brazil was to start imposing retaliatory sanctions against the United States in the WTO dispute settlement case regarding unfair domestic and export upland cotton subsidies, the parties have reached a preliminary concession aimed at settling this eight‐year‐long trade dispute. In this paper, we explore the economywide impacts of a no deal with specific emphasis on intellectual property retaliation in a computable general equilibrium framework. As awarded by a WTO dispute settlement panel, Brazil would have been entitled to $591 million in retaliatory sanctions in goods sectors and $238 million in intellectual property sanctions. We find that retaliation by Brazil would have led to welfare gains for all countries except the United States. Most importantly, however, had Brazil not been allowed to retaliate in the form of suspension of intellectual property rights, the impact of trade retaliation alone would have been negative for both Brazil and the United States, a case of shooting oneself in the foot to shoot at the other person's foot.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Product‐level Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows at product level, with a particular focus on trade creation and diversion. Based on estimation of the gravity equation, dealing with the zero trade flows and endogeneity bias problems, we analyse the impacts of various types of RTAs involving 67 countries for 20 products during the 1980–2006 period. We find that RTAs among developing countries tend to cause trade diversion compared with RTAs among developed countries. Taking the higher external tariff rates of developing countries compared with developed countries into consideration, our results suggest trade diversion is likely to be caused by remaining high tariffs on imports from non‐members. In addition, we find the trade creation effect for many products in the cases of Customs Unions and plurilateral RTAs. These results imply that trade creation would be caused by various factors besides the reduction in tariff rates. Based on these results, we draw a policy implication that external tariff rate reduction is an important factor in avoiding trade diversion in the formation of RTAs, in particular for RTAs among developing countries, while a large number of members and the common external tariff appear to be important for generating the trade creation effect.     

Networks of Value‐added Trade

Global value chains (GVCs) require new methods for evaluating interconnections among countries, which can no longer be accurately appraised by standard bilateral gross trade flows. This paper uses tools of network analysis to examine the evolution of value‐added trade from 1995 to 2011. GVCs are very centralised and asymmetric networks, with a few large economies acting as hubs, which exposes them to the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. As GVCs expanded, the networks of foreign value added in exports became denser, more complex and intensively connected. The regional dimension of GVCs is still dominant but is progressively giving place to a more global network. Networks of foreign value added in goods exports outpace those of services exports. However, foreign inputs of services are important for exports of both goods and services. There is a striking rise of China as a supplier of value added, while Germany and the United States maintain a central role in GVCs over the whole period.     

警惕战略性贸易政策陷阱——兼评日美的半导体产业政策

战略性贸易政策作为新贸易理论的政策主张,不仅在理论上严重依赖假设条件,而且在实践中也面临战略性产业难以识别、信息不充分以及政治力量、利益集团的影响等等困境。但这些理论为政府实施贸易干预提供了有力的理论支撑。日本对半导体产业的干预虽然使其产业竞争力迅速提高到可以与美国竞争的水平,也导致其产业发展高度依赖政府主导的联合研发项目,缺乏应对环境变化的灵活性,而且消费者在这过程中也遭受巨额损失。     

The Effect of Aggregation Bias: An NTB‐modelling Analysis of Turkey's Agro‐food Trade with the EU

We explore how different data aggregation levels affect the gravity estimates of non‐tariff barriers (NTBs) in the agro‐food sector, and we examine their related impacts on policy simulations of an expansion to the European Union (EU) that would include Turkey. We calculate two sets of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs using the gravity approach to disaggregated and aggregated Central Product Classification data for 15 Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) agro‐food sectors. We find that the AVEs of NTBs vary substantially across products and that using aggregated data primarily results in greater effects of NTBs. In a second step, we incorporate the AVEs of NTBs into the GTAP model to evaluate Turkey's EU membership and conclude that aggregation bias has considerable effects on both the estimation of NTBs and the general equilibrium simulation results. Utilising different data aggregation levels leads to a great variability of trade costs of NTBs and, hence, to misleading trade and welfare effects.     

推动服务贸易发展的政策选择

当前,全球服务贸易迅速发展,在全球贸易总量中的比重不断扩大,在世界经济竞争中的作用日益提高,发展服务贸易成为各国关注和竞争的焦点。加快服务贸易发展是提高我国对外贸易水平、参与国际分工能力的重要举措,同时也是我国面对新形势做出的战略选择。     

中日两国产业内贸易的实证研究

本文对中日双边贸易中制成品产业内贸易的发展现状、特征以及影响因素进行了实证研究,发现随着中日双边贸易中资本和技术密集型产品比重的提高,制成品产业内贸易比重也有所提高;其中,机械和运输设备产业内贸易所占比重最高;垂直差异化产品产业内贸易是中日制成品产业内贸易的主要形式;日本对华直接投资活动活跃、跨国公司国际一体化生产体系的构筑及其产业内投资的发展、中国持续经济增长引起的市场容量扩大、加工贸易的快速发展、产品差异化发展以及便利的地理区位因素均有利于促进双边产业内贸易的发展,规模经济和贸易壁垒因素对其则尚存消极影响。     

日本地震对中国进出口贸易的影响及对策分析

2011年3月11日,日本东北部地区发生里氏9.0级特大地震,并引发大规模海啸和核泄漏事件,一个多月内余震不断,造成了重大的人员伤亡。同时这场地震使日本经济蒙受巨大损失,日本共同社报导称：日本地震造成的经济损失可能高达16万亿-25万亿日元。日本央行估计此次灾害造成的财产损失将占到国内生产总值的3%-5%。世界银行则预测,日本要从地震中恢复过来,     

中国和印度贸易发展潜力和贸易政策修正探析

中国与印度的经贸关系正处于历史性的良好发展阶段.从中印贸易和产业结构比较来看,两国明显在许多领域拥有非常大的贸易发展潜力.虽然中印两国在某些外贸程序和政策法规上存在差异,但通过对中国贸易政策的不断修正,两国今后将能够在贸易和产业合作方面创造更大的贸易发展前景,而其对亚洲经济的长期发展来说也将是一个历史性的双边经济合作典范.     

发达国家战略性产业政策和贸易政策的理论思考和启示

发达国家实行的战略性产业政策和贸易政策的有关理论问题,在20世纪60年代矮70年代是它们增强国家的综合经济实力和处于国际领先地位的重要指标,这些理论对于我国产业政策制订和调整具有一定的启发价值。     

一季度经济形势分析及政策建议

尽管一季度经济运行继续呈现回升向好势头,但经济运行中还存在一些潜在的系统性风险,如通胀压力、房地产泡沫、收入分配格局不合理、地方财政风险及贸易摩擦和升值压力等,对此必须引起高度重视。做好下一阶段经济工作,应着力于加强和改善宏观调控,化解潜在系统性风险;转变经济发展方式,调整优化经济结构;纵深推进有利于经济发展方式转变的各项改革;把发展社会事业作为扩大消费、改善民生的重点,以改善民生拉动经济发展。     

尼日利业进口贸易法规概览

尼日利亚位于非洲西部尼日尔河中下游,南濒临大西洋的几内亚湾,北邻尼日尔,西接贝宁,面积92万平方公里,人口1.3亿,是非洲人口最多的国家.     

日本应对外贸摩擦手段变化趋势分析

20世纪50年代中期到80年代中后期,日本应对贸易摩擦的手段以双边磋商为主。20世纪90年代后,双边与多边手段并重成为日本处理外贸摩擦的新趋势。日本应对外贸摩擦手段的变化既有自身的原因,也有外部原因。我国入世已七年多,与WTO成员关系的磨合期已基本结束,目前已具备适时调整外贸摩擦应对手段的条件。     

Third‐country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements

Does regionalism negatively impact non‐members? To answer this question, we examine the effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on imports from non‐members and the tariffs that they face. Using data from six RTAs in Latin America and Europe, we do not find evidence that implementation of the regional agreements is associated with trade diversion from third countries to regional members. Using detailed industry data on preference margins and most‐favoured nation (MFN) tariffs for three trade agreements in Latin America over 12 years, we find that greater preference margins do not significantly reduce imports from third countries. We also look at the effect of preferences on external tariffs. We find evidence that preferential tariff reduction tends to precede the reduction of external MFN tariffs in a given sector, offering evidence of tariff complementarity. Overall, the results suggest that regionalism does not significantly harm non‐members.