从区域性国际公共产品供给角度析东亚区域合作中的中韩自贸区建设

区域经济一体化势不可挡,成为了提供区域性国际公共产品的有效途径。中国作为地区性大国,在推进东亚区域合作方面责任重大,其利益亦不应仅仅局限于贸易创造效应。在目前东亚地区大国间尚难形成合力共同推动地区经济一体化的情况下,中韩自贸区建设将成为本地区区域性国际公共产品集体供给的有益尝试。     

东亚区域生产网络发展与东亚区域经济合作的深化

随着产品内分工的发展,东亚区域生产网络的日益深化已成为东亚区域经济发展不可逆的趋势。本文梳理了东亚区域生产网络的表现和特征,对东亚区域生产网络引起的东亚贸易结构变化进行了探讨,分析了东亚区域生产网络对东亚各经济体的影响,揭示了东亚区域生产网络存在的缺点和潜在问题,并提出在东亚区域经济合作不断深化的背景下,促进东亚区域生产网络进一步发展的策略。     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

FDI对东亚区域经济一体化的影响研究

文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。     

东亚经济一体化:理论基础与现实指向

随着经济全球化的迅速发展,区域经济一体化成为不可逆转的趋势。尽管东亚已经成为世界第三大经济体,但是除了正在成长中的东盟自由贸易区和没有约束力的亚太经合组织、亚欧会议外,东亚尚未形成正式的区域经济一体化组织。通过分析东亚区域经济一体化发展过程中的"雁行模式"的利弊、APEC的特点、四轮驱动模式的作用,针对东亚区域经济一体化的特点、建立东亚共同体的长远目标,提出了加快实现东亚经济一体化的若干对策建议。     

The internationalization of the RMB: a perspective vis a vis East Asian economic and financial integration

The People’s Republic of China has achieved remarkable progress in the internationalization of the RMB by introducing a number of concrete measures to boost the RMB’s status on the world stage since 2009. The ongoing RMB internationalization is being promoted under the background of deepening economic and financial integration in East Asia. In this article, we attempt to analyse RMB internationalization from the perspective of East Asian regional integration. We hypothesize that East Asian regional integration lays a broad foundation for China to push RMB internationalization forward. An internationalized RMB, we argue, will play more important roles in the process of East Asian regionalization. Thus, RMB regionalization could be an important and necessary step of internationalization. The Chinese authorities should not only push the RMB toward internationalization under China’s framework of domestic financial system reform, but they should also integrate RMB internationalization into the process of East Asian economic and financial integration. Therefore, a win–win strategy of RMB internationalization for both China and East Asian countries is needed.     

东亚经济金融合作的进展与前景

区域经济金融合作的最高境界就是完全的经济一体化,这已成为当代世界一股不可阻挡的潮流。自1961年东盟成立以来,东亚区域经济金融合作的进程一直比较缓慢。1997年的亚洲金融危机使各国深刻认识到,只有加强合作,逐步实现经济的一体化,才能共同抵御风险。本文通过对东亚区域经济金融合作进展的描述,预测了东亚经济金融一体化的前景,展望了东亚经济金融一体化的新纪元。     

欧洲与东亚一体化发展模式及其比较分析

走在区域一体化最前面的欧盟在建立统一大市场后,已经实现了单一货币。东亚一体化应借鉴欧洲一体化模式,从能源合作入手,逐步走向区域经济融合,建立政治信任。这是东亚经济发展与经济全球化的客观要求,需要各成员国耐心而务实的努力。     

东亚经济一体化的贸易与投资效应

20世纪80年代以来,东亚区域(10+3)经济一体化取得长足的进展,经济区域化给东亚地区带来显著的经济绩效。文章根据区域经济一体化理论,深入地分析了东亚经济区域化带来的区域内贸易和投资效应,并通过计量模型对东亚地区的FDI与贸易的关系进行了检验,发现在东亚FDI与进口和出口都是互补关系,即FDI促进了东亚地区的贸易发展。     

东亚区域一体化的“轮轴-辐条”结构难题与中国的对策

东亚区域一体化近年来有较快的进展,但也出现了轮轴-辐条结构,导致离心力增大的障碍。中国作为东亚地区的经济大国,在东亚区域一体化过程中,既要发挥大国的作用,也要争取作为轮轴国的地位,这样才能在一体化过程中取得主导地位,获得应有的利益。     

东亚各国(地区)承接生产者服务外包的竞争力研究

20世纪90年代"东亚奇迹"模式使经济发展水平各异的东亚经济体实现了不同程度的经济增长和产业结构升级,在以零部件贸易为代表的生产网络框架下东亚地区生产者服务贸易呈现出快速增长的趋势,本文认为东亚生产者服务贸易增长因素主要体现在生产服务链接需求、产业结构升级需求以及东亚地区的促进政策等方面,在此基础上,本文利用贸易相似度指标和面板回归分析方法研究了不同的生产者服务行业中东亚承接服务外包的竞争力状况,结果表明东亚地区的生产者服务业已呈现出类似于制造业转移的特征:继制造业后美国和日本等较为先进的生产者服务提供国继续带动了东亚区域服务业结构升级。     

Peace and Economic Interdependence in the Middle East

Can economic interdependence pacify the Middle East? While Middle Eastern countries have, for the most part, avoided the global trend of regionalism, this study provides empirical evidence that Middle Eastern countries with significant trade ties to other countries in the region do cooperate more and fight less. In addition to confirming the liberal notion of peace through trade, this study shows that several conditions outlined by the selectorate theory of political survival must be fulfilled if economic interdependence in the Middle East is to be achieved. A case study outlining Israeli and Turkish economic cooperation is used to show the selectorate model's regional compatibility. The regional applicability of the selectorate theory leads us to conclude that politically liberal countries are more likely to maintain economic relations with one another than with autocratic ones. Since liberal countries will be more economically interdependent with one another they will also be more peaceful towards one another. Ultimately, then, this study concludes that political liberalisation is one way of enhancing regional economic interdependence and consequently the prospects for a more peaceful Middle East.     

中国与中亚五国进出口贸易特点及存在的问题分析

从实证角度分析中国与中亚各国进出口贸易的特点及其存在的问题并提出政策建议。认为:中国与中亚各国进出口贸易的不平衡性与波动性特点显著,不利于双边与多边贸易的平稳与持续发展;现有的贸易商品结构限制了双边与多边进出口贸易的进一步发展,有待进一步优化。如何充分发挥中国与中亚各国在双边与多边贸易中的比较优势,克服双边与多边进出口贸易中的问题和矛盾,是各国共同面临的问题。     

The Political Economy of Trade Integration in South Asia: The Role of India

The South Asian regional trade integration process to date has generated only limited enthusiasm. It suffers from significant shortcomings, primarily on account of a very cautious approach adopted to achieve the ultimate objective of ‘free trade’ within the region. In turn, this has led to a fragmentation of the integration process, with some of the partners of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) bloc opting for a speedier and more liberal bilateral process with India. India’s engagement remains the critical feature as the single most important trading partner for almost all the other South Asian countries. However, the dynamics of Indian economic integration initiatives too have been changing rapidly, whereby it is looking increasingly to strengthen its economic relations with the wider Asian region. In this context, the question of India’s willingness to give leadership to carry the rest of South Asia as the bridge that connects the region to East Asia needs to be examined. The current evidence suggests that India has attempted to do so via a host of bilateral and regional arrangements, but that the divergences in strategic interests amongst SAARC countries has left Pakistan on the margins of an evolving scheme of overlapping trade initiatives in South Asia. Thus, while something approximating ‘free trade’ in South Asia appears to be taking shape, it is unlikely to take the form of an inclusive South Asian regional integration process envisaged by SAARC.     

AMU Deviation Indicators for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and their Relationships with Effective Exchange Rates

After the Asian currency crisis in 1997, the monetary authorities of East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities’ surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We calculate an Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) as a weighted average of East Asian currencies following the method used to calculate the European Currency Unit (ECU). Also, we calculate AMU Deviation Indicators which show how much each of the East Asian currencies deviates from a hypothetical benchmark rate in terms of the AMU. Furthermore, we investigate relationships between the AMU Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates, which mean international price competitiveness in terms of international trade. We found strong relationships between the AMU Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates except for some currencies. The results suggest that monitoring the AMU Deviation Indicator will be useful for the monetary authorities’ surveillance in East Asia in order to stabilise their effective exchange rate or price competitiveness among the East Asian countries.     

建立东亚自由贸易区的中国经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

区域经济一体化在经济全球化的大背景下加速发展,东亚地区为世界上最活跃的经济区域之一。论文应用全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型实证模拟东亚地区建立自由贸易区(FTA)后的经济变化,研究建立东亚自由贸易区后对中国及世界经济的影响。研究结果表明:(1)东亚各成员国之间具有经济互补性,合作前景广阔,建立自由贸易区将有力地改善东亚地区的社会福利,同时区域成员之间也具有贸易创造效应。(2)中国各个产业均会受到不同程度的冲击,中国应重点关注在矿产及资源类、纺织品、电子类及制造业等领域所带来的负面效应。     

东亚地区产业内贸易的发展状况——G-L指数及发展原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚地区的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

A Middle East Free Trade Area: Economic Interdependence and Peace Considered

The Bush administration hopes that through a Middle East Free Trade Area (MEFTA), peace and stability can be achieved through intra‐regional economic cooperation. The current impediments to intra‐regional economic cooperation, however, will make a MEFTA a hub‐and‐spoke trade relationship between the United States and the Middle East. Neoliberal arguments for the interrelation of peace and economic interdependence in the context of the Middle East are then considered.     

中国区域一体化协议发展的特点与战略研究

大国的经济外交时代已然到来，而外商直接投资在中国实现工业化和经济发展的过程中起着至关重要的作用。因此，应从中国自身的区域一体化协议的发展特点出发，将外商直接投资因素包含到制定区域经济一体化的战略过程中去，在此基础上研究并制定适合中国的区域一体化协议发展战略，主要是：有选择地开展与发达国家的区域一体化谈判，加强与西亚地区的区域经济合作和在区域一体化协议中重点突出服务业投资自由化。     

东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型

随着东亚地区双边或多边贸易协定的不断增加,经济一体化成为了各国的最终诉求。然而农产品贸易问题却始终是谈判进程的主要阻力之一。本文侧重于对东亚区域内东盟10国和中日韩3国,就劳动密集型和资本密集型农产品分阶段进行恒定市场份额(CMS)的比较分析。得出的主要结论是:东亚地区农产品市场总体需求潜力很大;产业和结构的合理和完善可在一定程度上提高农产品的竞争力;中国农产品出口份额相对较大但主要依靠低廉的价格,并且竞争力逐渐减弱;政府制定的贸易政策和外部机会在未来农产品贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,区域经济合作是一种理想的选择方式。