Analysing the Agricultural Costs and Non‐market Benefits of Implementing the Water Framework Directive

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a fundamental change in the management of water in Europe with a requirement that member states ensure ‘good ecological status’ for all water bodies by 2015. Agriculture is expected to bear a major share of WFD implementation costs as it is compelled to reduce the emission of diffuse water pollutants. The research outlined here comprises interdisciplinary modelling of agricultural land use, hydrology and consequent water quality effects to consider both agricultural costs and the non‐market recreational use (and potentially non‐use) values that implementation of the Directive may generate. A theme throughout the research is the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits of WFD implementation, which is addressed through the use of GIS techniques in the modelling of agricultural land use, the integration of land use and hydrological models, and the estimation, aggregation and transfer of the economic value of the benefits.     

Challenges for land system science

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.     

Modelling Deforestation and Land‐Use Change: Sparse Data Environments

Land‐use change in developing countries is of great interest to policy‐makers and researchers with diverse interests. Concerns about consequences of deforestation for global climate change and biodiversity have received the most publicity, but loss of wetlands, declining land productivity and watershed management are also problems facing developing countries. Analyses of these problems are especially constrained by lack of data. This article reviews modelling approaches for data‐constrained environments that involve discrete choice methods including neural nets and dynamic programming, and research results that link individual household survey data with satellite images using geographic positioning systems.     

Agent‐based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture

Computer simulation models can provide valuable insights for climate‐related analysis and help streamline policy interventions for improved adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models are currently being expanded to include land‐use change and energy markets so that the effects of various policy measures on agricultural production can be assessed. Agent‐based modelling (ABM) or multi‐agent systems (MAS) have been suggested as a complementary tool for assessing farmer responses to climate change in agriculture and how these are affected by policies. MAS applied to agricultural systems draw on techniques used for Recursive Farm Programming, but include models of all individual farms, their spatial interactions and the natural environment. In this article, we discuss the specific insights MAS provide for developing robust policies and land‐use strategies in response to climate change. We show that MAS are well‐suited for uncertainty analysis and can thereby complement existing simulation approaches to advance the understanding and implementation of effective climate‐related policies in agriculture.     

Approaches to identifying stakeholders in environmental management: Insights from practitioners to go beyond the ‘usual suspects’

Stakeholder analysis and engagement processes are recognised as essential in environmental and natural resources management (ENRM). Underpinning these processes is the identification of stakeholders, an often tacit process which finds the practitioner responsible for stakeholder analysis or engagement sifting through all of society to determine who is awarded stakeholder status for the given project or issue. While the ENRM literature provides guidance for stakeholder analysis and engagement, there has not been the same level of examination of the practical approaches to—and assumptions underlying—stakeholder identification by practitioners working in the field. This research extends on the ENRM stakeholder analysis and engagement literature by exploring the approaches to identification as used by ENRM practitioners. Semi-structured interviews (n = 20) were conducted with ENRM practitioners, leading to the classification of eight approaches to stakeholder identification. These approaches are discussed as the ‘art’ and ‘science’ of stakeholder identification. Practitioners’ conceptualisations of the terms stakeholder, community, and the citizenry are discussed, and differences in understandings of these critical terms are outlined based on the broad domain of ENRM in which the practitioner is operating (land use change versus agricultural extension or community engagement). The social structures of relevance to stakeholder identification (individual, social constituency, group, organisation) are presented, and practitioners’ perspectives on the role of groups are discussed. Through explicating the approaches to identification of stakeholders, this research offers new perspectives on a significant element of ENRM. These insights provide greater clarity on the practices which shape stakeholder analysis and engagement in ENRM, and highlight the importance of acknowledging the privileged position of the practitioner in deciding who is awarded stakeholder status in a project or issue.     

Implications of CAP reform for land management and runoff control in England and Wales

WTO negotiations, as well as problems associated with intensive agriculture, such as overproduction, dependency on high levels of subsidies, diffuse pollution, soil degradation and loss of wildlife, have led to a reconsideration of agricultural policies in Europe. In April 2005, the new common agricultural policy (CAP)-reform came into force in the United Kingdom, decoupling financial support to farmers from agricultural production. Farm income support payments are now linked to compliance with standards (cross-compliance rules) which protect the environment, animal health and welfare. In the light of these policy changes, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 36 farmers in five catchments in the UK to explore interrelationships between CAP-reform, agricultural land management and runoff-related problems. Results from three catchments are specifically highlighted because of their relevance for soil policy.The CAP-reform appears to facilitate and accelerate changes in the agricultural sector that were already happening. It is likely that upland livestock farms will extensify further, which will reduce environmental burdens such as diffuse pollution, soil compaction and runoff. The uptake of agri-environment schemes by individual farmers has increased since the CAP-reform. However, additional impacts are limited as there is a tendency among participants to enter these schemes based on existing features and practices.Although most farmers interviewed for this study appear to recognise the need to reduce soil erosion and diffuse pollution, they are less convinced they should be held responsible for controlling storm-water runoff from farmland that might contribute to flooding downstream. However, there are opportunities to achieve several objectives simultaneously, including improved soil management, runoff control and reduced pollution. Lessons can be learned from farmers’ opinions about CAP-reform, from successful interventions that aimed to reduce soil erosion and diffuse pollution, and also from failures. Recommendations are made for improvements to the current agri-environment schemes and to promote land management practices with less environmental burden.     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

A REVIEW OF THREE RESEARCH PROGRAMS IN QUANTITATIVE MODELLING IN THE BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS*

Elements of three of the BAE's research programs in economic modelling of the rural sector, namely, the modelling of agricultural production systems, rural commodity markets and agriculture within a general equilibrium framework, are reviewed with emphasis on the use of such models in policy work. Suggestions are made for further modelling in these areas.     

Integrated assessment of water framework directive nitrate reduction measures

This article illustrates a statistical approach for deriving farm economic impacts of policy options aiming to reduce nitrate diffuse pollution. Building upon Fezzi et al. (2008) , who assess the costs of Water Framework Directive‐related measures on farm accounts data, we estimate regression models allowing such costs to be predicted for any region for which land use patterns and livestock numbers are known. We derive economic impacts in terms of changes in farm gross margin for (a) reducing inorganic fertilizer application, (b) reducing livestock stocking rates, and (c) converting arable land to ungrazed grassland. A case study of the agriculturally diverse Yorkshire Derwent catchment, in the North of England, demonstrates the overall approach. In addition, for this illustration, we combine these cost estimates with prediction of the water quality changes arising from each measure, derived via an integrated hydrological model of the Derwent. This allows a comparison of cost‐effectiveness. Finally, we implement our spatially explicit approach to target the measures to specific subcatchments identified as being of particular environmental policy interest.     

Assessment through socioecological abstraction: The case of nutrient management models in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

The sustainability of smallholder agriculture in the drylands of West Africa is a topic of long-lasting concern. This paper is focused on the scientific assessment of nutrient (mis)management affecting the long-term productivity of cropland. “Nutrient mining” is seen as a major mechanism for land degradation in the region. Two models will be the focus: that tied to the rangeland-to-cropland metric and the nutrient balance model. These tools of assessment follow a long history of environmental assessment and modeling that purposefully abstracts from the heterogeneity of the same farming practices that modeling efforts seek to assess. Abstraction is always part of modeling but the form of abstraction described here ignores any detailed understanding of farming practices and in so doing, demands very little information about farming practices. In this way, models serve as both the symptom and cause of continued ignorance of farming practices by most agronomists and soil scientists working in the region. The variables used in these models will be described and how these same variables are strongly influenced by the variation of farmers’ practices will be discussed. In addition, it will be shown that needless model abstraction results in research outcomes that provide very little insights to guide land policy formulation and agricultural extension. In short, these models point to the ultimate resource limits of the regional agricultural system but provide few insights of what could be changed to reduce rates of land degradation. The paper concludes by presenting alternative approaches that through their engagement with the diverse positionalities of farmers, provides insights useful for the development of effective land policies.     

Vertically Differentiated Trade and Differences in Factor Endowment: The Case of Agri‐Food Products between Hungary and the EU

The paper investigates the relationship between factor endowment and vertical intraindustry trade (IIT)in agri‐food products between Hungary and the EU. Intra‐industry trade is separated into its horizontal and vertical components on the basis of differences in unit values. Three different approaches to measuring IIT are employed and these are then tested using panel regression models. Results show vertical type trade is predominant in total IIT for agri‐food products. In order to achieve more general results, we consider different types of productive factors: land, human and physical capital. Using Flam and Helpman type vertically differentiated trade models, we find a positive relationship between factor endowment and vertical IIT. More importantly, using a measure of IIT that reflects the level of trade produces better regression results than those based on the degree or share of IIT.     

Effects of land lease policy on changes in land use,mechanization and agricultural pollution

Land fragmentation has restrained the development of Chinese agriculture with the application of agricultural machinery. Meanwhile, agricultural pollution has caused serious problems with development. To address these problems, China's government proposed a new farmland lease policy and built larger farms beginning in 2013. However, changes in land fragmentation may also have unexpected problems for Chinese agriculture. This study investigated the effects of these changes on changes in land use, the application of machinery and agricultural pollution. We analyzed a developed area (in the fields of both agriculture and industry) and studied the decision-making habits of farmers in the area. An agent-based model was proposed with the same decision-making habits as in the real world. The results indicated that land lease increased agricultural profits very little in Jiangsu, China. Meanwhile, the application of land lease policy increased pollution. To alleviate pollution and increase profits, a new policy for large automatic protection machinery (i.e., large spraying machinery) should be introduced by governments simultaneous with land lease policy. Farmers could realize greater profits through the introduction of land lease policy and high-efficiency machinery. The sustainable development of agriculture in Jiangsu requires the integration of these government policies.     

土地征用拆迁安置工作面临的新问题及建议

我国南方地区出现了三种新的土地征用模式 :嘉兴模式、南海模式和芜湖模式 ,这三种模式在保障农民的切身利益方面并没有做到很大的突破。现实征地拆迁安置急需解决的问题有 :(1)征地拆迁政策需要统一 ;(2 )征地补偿款分配矛盾突出 ;(3 )以往的遗留问题影响了被征地农民的情绪。对征地制度和拆迁安置工作的建议 :应建立严格细致的土地征用公示制度 ;完善现有的土地承包经营制度 ,建立永久性或者加强农民土地经营权的拥有程度 ,同时允许集体土地使用权转让 ;政府要在征地安置中让利于民 ;失地失业人员安置要实现良性循环等。     

CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND THE DETERMINANTS OF LAND PRICES

This paper outlines the concept of co-integration and its use in econometric modelling. The techniques of co-integration analysis are described, with particular emphasis given to test procedures. Co-integration between two or more variables is taken to imply the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Co-integration analysis is applied in a re-examination of recent empirical models of the determination of land prices in England and Wales. The results suggest that recent land price models do not describe longrun relationships between land prices and the explanatory variables selected. Criticisms of the different measurements of returns to land used in studies to date are sustained by the analysis, and a clear role for interest rates in the determination of land prices is indicated.     

Working to Make Interdisciplinarity Work: Investing in Communication and Interpersonal Relationships

In this paper, we apply qualitative methodologies to explore the practice of interdisciplinary research. The UK's Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) Programme aims to advance understanding of the challenges faced by rural areas through funding interdisciplinary research to inform future policy and practice on management choices for the countryside and rural economies. Addressing the challenges faced by rural areas often requires a combination of different perspectives, involving research to address subjects that may lie beyond the skills of individual researchers. An interdisciplinary approach requires the integration of both data/information and the experiences and perspectives of different people (natural/social scientists, local people and policy‐makers). We focus here on the processes involved in making interdisciplinarity work, documenting the experiences, perceptions, ideas and concerns of researchers working in interdisciplinary projects (specifically two EU‐funded projects but also the first wave of RELU projects). A key finding from this research is that interdisciplinarity requires conscious effort, time and resources for the development of interpersonal relationships to enhance effective communication and thus successful collaboration.     

耕地占补平衡评价体系及测算方法研究——以广东省粤北山地丘陵区和珠江三角洲平原区为例

当前我国耕地占补平衡的核心问题是片面强调数量平衡,缺乏新增耕地的质量衡量标准和检验机制,而导致我国的新增耕地质量总体趋于下滑,某些地区生态环境恶化.因此,确定耕地质量的衡量标准,建立耕地质量检验机制已成为耕地占补平衡的关键.以广东省粤北山地丘陵区和珠江三角洲平原区为例开展了实证研究,针对两区的实际情况,分别在两标准耕作制度指标区内建立了耕地利用等指数与单位标准粮之间的函数模型,并以此为测算依据,换算了相同或不同标准耕作制度指标区的耕地占补平衡比例系数关系.     

Learning from Doing Participatory Rural Research: Lessons from the Peak District National Park

Understanding the socio‐economic and environmental implications of rural change requires the active participation of many research disciplines and stakeholders. However, it remains unclear how to best integrate participatory and biophysical research to provide information useful to land managers and policy makers. This paper presents findings of a RELU scoping study that has formulated and applied a research framework based on stakeholder participation and adaptive learning to model rural change in the Peak District National Park in the north of England. The paper describes a learning process that integrates different types of knowledge to produce future scenarios that describe possible economic and environmental changes due to a national review of burning practices on heather moorland and blanket bogs. We stress the need for using social network analysis to structure stakeholder engagement and outline how a range of participatory approaches can facilitate more inclusive environmental planning and policy development.     

Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview

Agriculture and forestry play an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. For an efficient and cost-effective climate policy, it is therefore important to include land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) explicitly in economy-climate models. This article gives an overview and assessment of existing approaches to include LULUCF into partial and general equilibrium economy-climate models. For each class of models, we describe different examples, their treatment of land, and their potential for and applicability to policy analysis, as well as their shortcomings. We identify data requirements and conceptual problems, and provide suggestions for future research.     

Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments

Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non‐traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location‐specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely‐sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed.     

Housing development in Australia: The implications of production and approval processes for availability and choice

Summary

This paper focuses on the housing production and development approval processes: the agencies involved and the implications for the product, housing, in terms of costs and design. Changing household structure, expansion of metropolitan areas and rising costs (financial and social) mean that the traditional style of single storey detached homes no longer provides adequate choice. An investigation into housing costs in 1978, found that the land development process and approval procedures were major contributors to both inefficiencies in production and conservative attitudes inhibiting the diffusion of new ideas and alternative dwelling choices. The paper reviews changes which have taken place during the 1980s especially in the role of the states in land development, changes in approval processes (planning, subdivision and titling) and more effective use of land by improved design and layout. These are examined against a background of the uniqueness of the Australian housing system with its emphasis on owner‐occupation and which in common with Britain has an increasing affordability problem. The roles of landowners, speculators, developers (including the state land authorities), housebuilders and house‐owners are examined together with some of the factors affecting availability and choice.